Bundesbank: German inflation to be just under 6% in Nov

    Bundesbank said in the monthly report that inflation rate will rise to “just under 6 percent in November”. Inflation is expected to “decline noticeably in January when statistical special effects (especially the VAT base effect) expire. “But it could still be well over 3 percent for a long time,” it added.

    It also expects “a breather in the economic recovery” in autumn. Industrial is likely to “continue to be burdened by delivery problems”, and thus, “dampen overall economic growth”. Risks from an intensified pandemic would exist throughout the winter half-year. “As things stand at present, the macroeconomic effects are likely to be less severe than in previous pandemic waves,” it said.

    Full release here.

    Gold edges lower, heading back to 1800 handle

      Gold edges lower today and break of 1841.28 support suggests that a short term top was formed at 1877.05 already. It’s possible that whole rebound from 1682.60 has completed with three waves up to 1877.05. That means, such rise is just the third leg inside the corrective pattern from 1676.65. More importantly, that in turn argues that larger corrective pattern from 2074.84 high is still unfolding.

      For now, deeper fall is in favor back to 55 day EMA (now at 1804.13) first. Sustained break there will affirm the above bearish case and bring retest of 1676.65/1682.60 support zone. On the other hand, break of 1877.05 will revive near term bullishness for 1916.30 key structural resistance.

      WTI dips below 76 as Japan considers releasing reserves

        Oil price extends its near term corrective decline in Asian session, with WTI dipping to 75.63. The move came as Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he is considering releasing oil from its reserves, in response to US request to quell high energy prices. He told reporters, “we want to draw a conclusion after thoroughly considering the situation each country faces and what Japan can do.”

        WTI’s fall from 85.92 high is currently see as a correction to rise from 61.90 only. Hence, even in case of deeper fall, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 61.90 to 85.92 at 71.07, which is also close to medium term trend line support. But break of 80.32 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the pull back. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

        BoE Bailey: Second-ground effects are our concerns

          BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview published over the weekend that the risks to the UK economy are “two-sided” at the moment. He said that “activity in the economy is slowing”. Also, “he proximate cause of many of these inflation issues is on the supply side, and monetary policy isn’t going to solve these directly”.

          However, “the concern for us is what they classically call ‘second-round effects’, particularly in wage bargaining and the labour market,” he added. “If the economy evolves in the way the forecasts and reports suggest, we’ll have to raise rates. Which, by the way, is entirely consistent with what I said in October.”

          Canada retail sales dropped -0.6% mom in Sep, better than expectation

            Canada retail sales dropped -0.6% mom to CAD 56.6B in September, better than expectation of -1.6% mom decline. The contraction was led by sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-1.6%) as new car dealer sales (-2.8%) continued to struggle amid global supply shortages for semiconductor chips. Sales dropped in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 63.5% of retail trade. Excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts, sales dropped -0.3% mom. In October, advance estimate shows a 1.0% mom rebound in sales.

            Full release here.

            BoE Pill: No quick fix on inflation means patience required

              BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said in a conference today that there is “no quick fix” on inflation. He added, ” lack of a quick fix means some patience will be required.” He also said he had not made up his mind whether he would vote for a rate hike in December’s meeting.

              He added that policy communications was getting more complicated due to the two-side risks to both growth and inflation outlook. But, he said the central wanted to “train” the markets to focus more on the medium-term outlook and the two-side risks. Also, Some volatility was unavoidable give the uncertainty regarding the precise timing of the rate hikes.

              ECB Lagarde: Doesn’t make sent to react to current inflation by tightening policy

                In a speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank focus on “medium term, not on current inflation numbers”. “When inflation pressure is expected to fade – as is the case today – it does not make sense to react by tightening policy,” she added. “The tightening would not affect the economy until after the shock has already passed.”

                Lagarde also said, “supply shock” will tend to “push up inflation and depress output. In this case, “tighter monetary policy would only exacerbate the contractionary effect on the economy.” The Eurozone is facing a “mixture of shocks”, partly related to catch-up demand but has a “strong supply-driven element”. “Tightening policy prematurely would only make this squeeze on household incomes worse.”

                “The conditions to raise rates are very unlikely to be satisfied next year,” she said. “Moreover, even after the expected end of the pandemic emergency, it will still be important for monetary policy – including the appropriate calibration of asset purchases – to support the recovery and the sustainable return of inflation to our target of 2%.”

                Full speech here.

                UK retail sales rose 0.8% mom in Oct, ex-fuel sales grew 1.6% mom

                  UK retail sales grew 0.8% mom in October, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-fuel sales jumped 1.6% mom, above expectation of 0.2% mom.

                  However, over the three months to October, sales volumes dropped -2.3% when compared with the previous three months. Compared with the same period a year earlier, sales volumes over the last three months dropped -0.5%.

                  Retail sales values, unadjusted for price changes, rose by 1.6% in October 2021, following an increase of 0.2% in September. Over the last three months to October 2021, the value of sales was up 3.3% on the same period a year earlier, reflecting an annual retail sales implied price deflator of 3.8%.

                  Full release here.

                  UK Gfk consumer confidence rose to -14 despite higher inflation

                    UK GfK consumer confidence rose from -17 to -14 in November, better than expectation of -16. Expectation of personal financial situation over the next 12 months rose 1pt to 2. Expectation of general economic situation over the next 12 months rose 3 pts to -23.

                    Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, comments:”Headline consumer sentiment has ticked upwards this month despite decade-high inflation, fears of higher prices and worries over rising interest rates, and as the deepening cost-of-living squeeze leaves UK household finances worse off this winter.

                    Full release here.

                    Japan CPI core rose 0.1% yoy in Oct, second month of rise

                      Japan all-time CPI dropped from 0.2% yoy to 0.1% yoy in October. CPI core (all-item ex food) was unchanged at 0.1% yoy. CPI core-core (all-item ex food and energy), dropped further from -0.5% yoy to -0.7% yoy.

                      The CPI core reading is now rising for the second straight month. Overall energy prices rose 11.3%. Gasoline prices surged at highest rate in over 13 years, up 21.4%, while kerosene also rose 25.9%. Accommodation fees gained 59.1%.

                      Bot CPI core-core was negative for the seventh straight month, as weighed down by record -53.6% fall in mobile communications fees.

                      Fed Bostic: Appropriate to normalize interest rate by summertime next year

                        Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday, “right now, our projections suggest that by the summertime of next year, the number of jobs that we have in the economy will be pretty much where we were pre-pandemic.”

                        “And at that point, I think it’s appropriate for us to try to normalize our interest rate policy,” he added.

                        Fed Evans: Inflation is not hair on fire

                          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he wouldn’t describe inflation as “hair on fire”. But he admitted, high inflation is “gone on longer”, and things are “not quite as clean as I was hoping for”.

                          Evans also tried to solidify the expectation that Fed won’t raise interesting rate before completing tapering. Also, there won’t be adjustment in the tapering pace, “state-contingent, we see a big change in the data.”

                          US initial jobless claims dropped to 268k, continuing claims dropped to 2.08m

                            US initial jobless claims dropped -1k to 268 in the week ending November 13, above expectation of 260k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -6k to 253k. Both were the lowest since March 14, 2020.

                            Continuing claims dropped -129k to 2080k, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -100k to 2157k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                            Full release here.

                            OECD: France GDP to grow 6.8% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022

                              OECD projects a strong 6.8% growth in France GDP in 2021, followed by 4.2% in 2022. Private consumption is forecast to grow 4.8% in 2021, and a further 6.8% in 2022. Unemployment is expected to drop to 7.8% this year and then 7.6% next. CPI is expected to be at 1.9% this year, then slow to 1.7% next.

                              “France’s response to the COVID-19 crisis has been swift and effective, enabling it to emerge from the health crisis with jobs and household incomes well protected and its economic capacity largely preserved,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “A rigorous implementation of the government’s Recovery and Investment Plans will help to turn the rebound into lasting sustained growth, building a greener, more digital and more resilient economy.”

                              Full release here.

                              Panetta: ECB to develop digital euro prototype in 2023

                                ECB Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta said in a speech, “Over the next two years we will investigate the key issues related to the design and distribution of a digital euro”.

                                The digital euro will be designed to be an “efficient means of payment”, but also to “preserve financial stability”. He added, “we will need to strike a balance between maximising its appeal as a means of exchange and limiting its use as a form of investment.”

                                The Eurosystem High-Level Task Force on Central Bank Digital Currency is working to identify “use cases and design options”. After this phase, ECB will move on to examining “technological solutions. Panetta said, “we expect to narrow down the design-related decisions by the beginning of 2023 and develop a prototype in the following months.”

                                Full speech here.

                                NZD/USD recovers mildly, but outlook stays bearish

                                  NZD/USD recovers mildly today but overall outlook is unchanged. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 0.7079 minor resistance holds. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.6804 is complete with three waves up to 0.7217. In other words, larger decline from 0.7463 is not over.

                                  Fall from 0.7271 should target 0.6858 support next. Firm break there will solidify this bearish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 0.7463 through 0.6804 low, to 38.2% retracement of 0.5467 to 0.7463 at 0.6701.

                                  RBNZ survey: Four rate hikes over next seven meetings

                                    In the latest RBNZ survey for Q4, 2-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.27% to 2.96%, highest since June 2011. 5-year inflation inflation expectation rose from 2.03 to 2.17%, highest since September 2017.

                                    Currently, the OCR is standing at 0.50%, after a rate hike of 25bps in October 6. Survey respondents expect Oct. to rise further to 0.75% by the end of the current quarter. Mean estimate for OCR one year ahead was 1.53%, translating to four 25bps hike over the next seven RBNZ meetings. Two year-head expectations stands at 1.83%, with more respondents expecting OCR to be either at 1.50% or 2.0)% by the end of September 2023.

                                    Full release here.

                                    CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY resume corrective decline

                                      Following the pullback in US stocks overnight, Yen crosses are trading generally lower. In particular, CAD/JPY resumed the decline from 93.00 by breaking through 90.40 temporary low. Judging from the development in Yen pairs elsewhere, there is prospect of deeper decline even if such fall is still a corrective more.

                                      For now, further decline is expected in CAD/JPY as long as 91.58 minor resistance holds. 38.2% retracement of 84.65 to 93.00 at 89.81 might provide some initial support. But firm break there will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 87.83.

                                      Development in AUD/JPY is slightly more bearish, as 55 day EMA and 38.2% retracement of 77.88 to 86.24 at 83.04 are both taken out. Fall from 86.24 has just resumed. Deeper decline is expected as long as 84.14 resistance holds, for 61.8% retracement at 81.07 and possibly below.

                                      Fed Evans: Going to take us until the middle of next year to complete tapering

                                        Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in a virtual conference, “we learned back in 2013 that tapering these asset purchases was preferable for financial market functioning; that if we did a sudden stop on our purchases that wasn’t well received. It’s going to take us until the middle of next year to complete that”.

                                        “It’s going to take us until the middle of next year to complete that; we are going to be mindful of inflation; we’re going to be looking to see how much additional accommodation is boosting inflation; if indeed that is the case, we’ll be thinking about when the right time to start raising rates will be,” he added.

                                        US oil inventories dropped -2.1m barrels, WTI extending consolidation

                                          US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -2.1m barrels in the week ending November 12, versus expectation of 1m rise. At 433.0m barrels, oil inventories are about -7% below the five year average for this time of year.

                                          Gasoline inventories dropped -0.7m barrels. Distillate inventories dropped -0.8m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -0.2m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -8.9m barrels.

                                          WTI crude oil has little reaction to the data. It’s still extending the consolidation pattern from 85.92 short term top. For now, we’d continue to expect strong support from 78.54 to contain downside to bring rebound. This level is slightly above 55 day EMA at 78.47.

                                          Medium term up trend should resume sooner or later and the real test is from 61.8% projection of 33.50 to 77.16 from 61.90 at 88.88. However, firm break of 78.54 will turn near term outlook bearish for deeper pull back into 61.90/77.16 support zone.