ECB Lagarde: Some restrictions in Q1 considered in last economic projections

    ECB President Christine Lagarde said the forecasts of 3.9% GDP growth this year in Eurozone is “still very plausible”, despite resurgent in coronavirus infections. She explained that’s because “our forecast is predicated on lockdown measures until the end of the first quarter.

    “What would be a concern would be that after the end of March those member states still need to have lockdown measures and if, for instance, vaccination programmes were slowed down,” she added.

     

    Eurozone industrial production rose 2.5% mom in Nov, EU up 2.3% mom

      Eurozone industrial production rose 2.5% mom in November, well above expectation of 0.3% mom. Production of capital goods rose by 7.0% mom and intermediate goods by 1.5% mom, while production of durable consumer goods fell by -1.2% mom, non-durable consumer goods by -1.7% mom and energy by -3.9% mom.

      EU industrial production rose 2.3% mom. Among Member States, for which data are available, the highest increases were registered in Ireland (+52.8% mom), Greece (+6.3% mom) and Denmark (+5.3% mom). The largest decreases were observed in Portugal (-5.1% mom), Belgium (-3.5% mom) and Croatia (-2.6% mom).

      Full release here.

      WTI oil in upside acceleration, targets 56.41 next

        WTI crude oil accelerates higher this week and hits as high as 53.90 so far. The break of near term channel resistance is a sign of upside acceleration. That’s supported by the movement in daily MACD too. Production cut of OPEC+, as well as expectations for strong global economic growth in the second half is giving oil price some solid support.

        Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 49.42 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 40.32 to 49.42 from 47.31 at 56.41. We’ll see if WTI would have another round of upside acceleration there.

        USD/JPY rejected by channel resistance, keeping outlook bearish

          Dollar drops broadly today after some Fed officials toned down the talks of tapering the asset purchase program. In general, they believe it’s premature to even start the discussion of withdrawing stimulus.

          USD/JPY’s break of 103.59 minor support suggests that it’s already rejected by falling channel resistance, after failing to sustain above 55 day EMA too. Daily MACD suggests that the down trend from 111.71 has been losing momentum for a while. But there is no end to it yet. Focus will now turn back to 102.58 support.

          USD/CHF also dropped sharply after touching 0.8918 resistance. Focus is back on 0.8821 minor support. Break will also confirm rejection by the resistance and maintain near term bearishness, for extending the larger down trend through 0.8756 low.

          Fed Mester: Quite a while away from change in monetary policy stance

            Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she’s “comfortable” with monetary policy at the moment. “Asset purchases will be tapered once the Fed is ready to make changes, not reduced suddenly.” “It’s very premature to think we’re getting to the point to change our policy stance,” she added. “We’re quite a while away from a change in the policy stance.”

            Separately, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said, “overall, the outlook is for monetary policy to remain accommodative for some time… It is too soon to speculate about the timing of any change in this stance.”

            Fed Rosengren: Public health crisis will dissipate over the course of the year

              Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a speech that the public health crisis will likely “dissipate over the course of this year”. “The pandemic is likely to continue to be a problem for public health and the economy until widespread vaccinations take hold,” he added. “Nonetheless, with substantial fiscal and monetary support, I expect a robust recovery starting in the second half of this year.”

              In response to a question, Rosengren said, “I expect it to be a little while before we’re even talking about tapering on our purchases of government and mortgage-backed securities.”

              Full speech here.

              Fed Bullard: We’re not close to tapering yet

                St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it’s an “encouraging sign that the Treasury 10-2 spread is returning to more normal levels for an expansion.” Markets are ” hoping to see the end of the pandemic in 2021,” he added. “. They’re hoping to see good growth going forward, and because of that you’re seeing the yields normalize.”

                But he also emphasized, “we want to get through the pandemic and sort of see where the dust settles, then we will be able to think about where to go with balance-sheet policy.” Fed would like to “replicate” the 2013 tapering process “when the time comes”. However, “we are not close to that yet.”

                Germany BDI expects Joe Biden and China to boost industrial sector export this year

                  Germany’s BDI industry association expects the country’s GDP to grow 4.4% this year. The export-oriental industrial sector would drive recovery with 6% growth.

                  BDI President Siegfried Russwurm said, “the election of Joe Biden as U.S. President facilitates the path for multilateral solutions and joint initiatives for fair competition on the world markets.”

                  “Our companies will benefit from both China, the driver of global growth, and the agreement on an investment pact, even if it is not perfect,” he added.

                  GBP/JPY resumes rally after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA

                    GBP/JPY rises after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said there are a lot of issues with negative interest rates. Solid support was seen in 4 hour 55 EMA, indicating near term bullishness. Further rise is now expected as long as 140.31 support holds. Choppy rise from 133.03 has resumed for a test on 142.71 high. At this point, upside momentum doesn’t warrant a firm break there yet. Thus, we’ll be cautious on topping signals as it approaches 142.71.

                    BoE Bailey: There are a lot of issues with negative interest rates

                      BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said today that negative rates are a “controversial issue” and there are “a lot of issues” with it. He added that negative rates would complicate banks’ efforts to earn a rate of return, and potentially hurt their lending.

                      Bailey added that “we’re in a world of low rates for a long period of time”. Outlook for interest rates “hinges on productivity growth”. At this point, it’s “too soon to reach any conclusion about the need for future stimulus.

                      On the economy, he said, We’re”in a very difficult period at the moment and there’s no question that it’s going to delay, probably, the trajectory.”

                      Gold in stronger recovery as correction extends, but more downside expected afterwards

                        Gold’s break of 1855.40 minor resistance suggests temporary bottoming at 1817.05, after drawing support from 1819.07 support. Some consolidations could be seen, with risk of stronger recovery. But upside should be limited by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1888.09) to bring fall resumption.

                        We’re holding on to the view that fall from 1959.16 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 2075.18. Break of 1817.05 will target 1764.31 support and below.

                        ECB Schnabel: Predominant problem is weak demand, not capacity bottlenecks

                          ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview that “inflation is not dead. Compared to the long course of economic history, there are only a relatively few years in which inflation was as low as it is now”. In particular, the decline in energy prices was a ” major reason why inflation fell sharply in 2020″. Temporary sales tax reductions also has a “dampening effect”, especially in Germany.

                          For now,  there are no signs that one should worry about inflation being too high”. She added. “We are experiencing a pronounced weakness in demand. It is to be feared that the crisis will have longer-term effects on the labor market.

                          “Overall, the predominant problem is that economic demand is too weak, not that there are capacity bottlenecks, which is why prices are likely to rise too slowly,” she said.

                          Full interview here.

                          Fed Barkin: You’re looking at a very strong second half

                            Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in a CNBC interview, “you’re looking at a second half that is going to be very strong “. But the question is “how do we get through where we are today to that second half,” he added. “While it might be bumpy, I think there are backstops here, and in particular, fiscal would be a backstop, I think elevated savings are a backstop.”

                            Barkin “couldn’t tell” the day when Fed starts to scale back monetary stimulus, as it gave “outcome guidance not data guidance”. But ” this notion of ‘substantial further progress’ is the right way to think about it,” he said. “So there are scenarios certainly where we see strong recovery in unemployment and inflation but there are lots of scenarios where we don’t.”

                            Atlanta Fed Bostic: The economy could come back a bit stronger than expected

                              Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said, “all of the economic fallout has been a function of how we’ve responded to the public health crisis… Making a forecast about this year is really at its heart a forecast of how well the vaccine is going to penetrate into the population so we’re at a place where we don’t have to be so cautious about how we do our economic activity.”

                              Though, he added, “there is some possibility that the economy could come back a bit stronger than some are expecting… If that happens, I’m prepared to support pulling back and recalibrating a bit of our accommodation and then considering moving the policy rate.”

                              “But I don’t see that happening in 2021. A whole lot would have to happen to get us there,” he said. “Then we’ll see into 2022. Maybe the second half of 2022 or even 2023 where that might be more in play.”

                              Kaplan: Fed should have earnest discussion on tapering later this year

                                Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan emphasized “we should be as aggressive as we can be while we are in the teeth of this pandemic, until we are convinced that we have weathered this pandemic.”

                                Though, “later this year, my own view is, we should at least be having an earnest discussion about when it’s appropriate to taper” the asset purchase program.

                                He expects the US economy to grow around 5% this year, with unemployment rate falling back to 4.50-4.75% from current level of 6.7%. The economy will then have made “substantial progress” towards Fed’s dual mandate.

                                By the time, “I think it’s a healthier for the U.S. economy and for markets to wean off these extraordinary actions and this extraordinary stimulus,” he said.

                                BoE Tenreyro: Feasibility study of negative rates still in progress

                                  BoE MPC member Silvana Tenreyro said in a speech that the work on feasibility of negative rates is “still in progress”. Once the bank is satisfied that negative rates are feasible, the MPC would have a “separate decision over whether they are the optimal tool to use to meet the inflation target given circumstances at the time”. She also laid out three points regarding her current thinking on how negative rates might work in the UK.

                                  Firstly, “the ‘financial-market channels’ of monetary policy transmission have worked effectively under negative rates in other countries, with some of the evidence pointing to more powerful effects.” Secondly, “‘bank-lending channels’ of monetary policy transmission have also been effective at boosting lending and activity,” and there is “no clear evidence that negative rates have reduced bank profits overall”. Thirdly, negative rates “could only make bank-lending channels slightly less powerful than otherwise”.

                                  Tenreyro’s full speech here.

                                  AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY retreat mildly, up trend still in force

                                    Commodity Yen crosses trade mildly lower today and stock markets turn into consolidation and retreat mildly. AUD/JPY formed a temporary top at 80.91 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. Though, downside should be contained by 78.83 support to bring another rally. We’d expect up trend from 59.89 to resume, sooner rather than later, by breaking through 80.91 to 61.8% projection of 59.89 to 78.46 from 73.13 at 84.60.

                                    Similarly, NZD/JPY also turned into consolidation today, with a temporary top formed at 75.56. Downside of retreat should be contained by 73.78 support to bring rise resumption. We’d expect up trend from 59.49 to resume to 100% projection of 63.45 to 71.66 from 68.86, at 77.07, after the consolidations.

                                    Eurozone Sentix rose to 1.3, expectations jumped to new record high

                                      Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment turned positive to 1.3 in January, up from -2.7, but missed expectation of 2.0. That’s nonetheless the highest since February 2020. Current situation index rose to -26.5, up from -30.3, highest since March 2020. Expectation index rose to 33.5, up from 29.3, an all-time high. Sentix said, “the main reason for the expectations, despite the renewed lockdown ex-tension in Germany, is probably the high hope for a successful vaccination campaign.”

                                      “Nevertheless, we do not see the development so positively,” it added. “This is because the assessment of the situation has been showing a much flatter trend than the stormy expectations for months now. There is a potential for a temporary sobering up here, because investors seem to underestimate the danger that the economies are more damaged than the data seem to reflect and that this will only become visible when the restrictions are actually lifted.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Bitcoin extending correction, support expected at 32668

                                        Bitcoin’s pull back from 41964.0 accelerates lower today, following general rebound in Dollar. While deeper fall could not be rule out, recovery should be around the corner. We’re expecting some support from 38.2% retracement of 17629.0 to 41964.0 at 32668.03 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. This fibonacci level is also close to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 32859.7). A break above 37126.0 minor resistance will confirm stabilization, and turn BTC/USD into a sideway pattern. Though, firm break of the mentioned support zone would bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 26,924.97 instead.

                                        Gold dips to 1817, decline slowing a bit but no bottoming yet

                                          Gold edged lower to 1817.05 in Asian session but selloff appears to be slowing a little bit. Though, bias will remain on the downside as long as 1865.40 minor resistance holds. Current fall from 1959.16 is seen as another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 2075.18. Break of 1819.05 would target 1764.31 support and below.