US initial jobless claims rose 1k to 203k in the week ending May 7, above expectation of 190k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4k to 193k.

Continuing claims dropped -44k to 1343k in the week ending April 30, lowest since January 3, 1970 when it was 1332k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -33k to 1385k, lowest since January 31, 1970 when it was 1374k.

Full release here.

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped slightly from 108.6 to 106.4 in May, above expectation of 107.3. Present Situation Index dropped from 152.9 to 149.6. Expectations Index dropped from 79.0 to 77.5.

“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in May, after rising modestly in April,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline in the Present Situation Index was driven solely by a perceived softening in labor market conditions. By contrast, views of current business conditions—which tend to move ahead of trends in jobs—improved. Overall, the Present Situation Index remains at strong levels, suggesting growth did not contract further in Q2. That said, with the Expectations Index weakening further, consumers also do not foresee the economy picking up steam in the months ahead. They do expect labor market conditions to remain relatively strong, which should continue to support confidence in the short run.”

“Meanwhile, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, major appliances, and more all cooled—likely a reflection of rising interest rates and consumers pivoting from big-ticket items to spending on services. Vacation plans have also softened due to rising prices. Indeed, inflation remains top of mind for consumers, with their inflation expectations in May virtually unchanged from April’s elevated levels. Looking ahead, expect surging prices and additional interest rate hikes to pose continued downside risks to consumer spending this year.”

Full release here.

US PMI Manufacturing dropped to 51.7 in January, down from 52.4, and missed expectation of 52.3. PMI services rose to 53.2, up form 52.8, beat expectation of 53.1, a 10-month-high. PMI Composite rose to 53.1, up from 52.7, also a 10-month high.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Siân Jones, Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“The recovery of growth momentum across the U.S. private sector continued to quicken at the start of 2020, with overall output rising at the sharpest pace since last March. Nonetheless, the underlying data highlights a manufacturing sector that is not out of the woods yet, with goods producers seeing only modest gains in output and new orders. Service providers also registered a slower upturn in new business, which fed through to softer increases in output charges as part of efforts to attract new customers.

“On a positive note, private sector firms increased their workforce numbers at a faster rate, with some also expressing frustration at a lack of available candidates to fill vacancies. Job creation reflected stronger optimism regarding future output. Although firms remain wary of the potential for headwinds through 2020, business confidence creeped higher for the second month running.

“Further signs of historically soft price pressures will come as no surprise to the FOMC, who meet next week, adding to expectations of a hold in the policy rate. Muted increases in costs and output charges reportedly stemmed from both producers and suppliers increasing their efforts to boost sales.”

Full release here.

US initial jobless claims was unchanged at 209k in the week ending October 7, below expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -3k to 206k.

Continuing claims rose 30k to 1702k in the week ending September 30. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5k to 1674k.

Full US jobless claims release here.