Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 58.4 in Nov, strong headline reading masks tough business conditions

    Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.4 in November, slightly up from October’s 58.3. Markit said stocks of purchases rose at strongest rate on record as firmed built safety buffers. Output price inflation hit fresh record while supplier performance deteriorated rapidly once again.

    Looking as some member states, Italy PMI manufacturing rose to record high at 62.8. Others, except France at 55.9 (3-month high), dropped, but readings remained high, including the Netherlands at 60.7 (9-month low), Ireland at 59.9 (8-month low), Greece at 58.8 (2-month low), Austria at 58.1 (10-month low), Germany at 57.4 (10-month low), and Spain at 57.1 (8-month low).

    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

    “A strong headline PMI reading masks just how tough business conditions are for manufacturers at the moment. Although demand remains strong, as witnessed by a further solid improvement in new order inflows, supply chains continue to deteriorate at a worrying rate. Shortages of inputs have restricted production growth so far in the fourth quarter to the weakest seen over the past year and a half…

    “… Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infection rates cast a darkening cloud over the near-term outlook, threatening to further disrupt supply chains while at the same time diverting spending from consumer services to consumer goods again, therefore worsening the imbalance of supply and demand.”

    Full release here.

    Gold resumes correction, 1700 looks vulnerable

      Gold’s recovery was rejected by 1760.46 support and resistance and decline resumed quickly by breaking through 1717.01 temporary low. 1700 handle is now looking vulnerable. The corrective pattern from 2075.18 is extending with fall from 1959.16 as the third leg. Current fall might now target 50% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1617.67.

      Break of 1759.72 minor resistance is now needed to be the third sign of short term bottoming. Further break of 1815.83 resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in gold as the correction in favor in extend lower.

      USD finally starting to pull back after clearing CPI risk

        Dollar drops broadly, except versus pound after inflation data.

        Headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% yoy in April, up from 2.4% yoy and met expectation. However, core CPI was unchanged at 2.1% yoy, below expectation of 2.2% yoy.

        Also from US, initial jobless claims was unchanged at 211k in the week ended May 5, sticking to the lowest level in 49 years for the second straight week. Four-week moving average dropped -5.5k to 216k, touching the lowest level since December 1969. Continuing claims rose 3k to 1.79m in the week ended April 28.

        The momentum in the post data USD selloff argues that traders are finally relieved that can take profits from recent long stretched rally. 1.1938 minor resistance in EUR/USD and 0.9982 minor support in USD/CHF will be the key levels to watch to confirm this case.

        Gold selloff resumes, strong support expected around 1725

          Gold’s selloff resumes today by breaking through 1800 handle and hits as low as 1764.31 so far. Further decline is now expected as long as 1818.26 resistance holds. Current decline from 2075.18 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 1160.17. Deeper fall should be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 1749.77) and possibly slightly below.

          But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1725.64 to contain downside and bring rebound. However, Sustained break of 1749.77 could bring even deeper correction to 61.8% retracement at 1509.70.

          Germany said to start exiting lockdown on April 19

            Reuters reported today that the German Interior Ministry is already drafting a plan to end lockdown and return the country to normal lift, starting April 19. The document assumed that the coronavirus pandemic will last until 2021. But with proper measures, the average number of people infected by one person could be limited below one.

            the plan is backed by vigorous mechanism that track more than 80% of people with whom an infected person had contacted, and quarantine them. People will be orders to wear masks in public transport and factories and public buildings. Social-distancing measures will remain in place. Events and parties will be forbidden. But shops and schools could reopen while border controls could be relaxed.

            Separately, government spokesman said “even if some people are demanding it, the government can’t yet give an exit day, a firm date from which everything will be different and the measures relaxed.”

            US retail sales flat in April, ex-auto sales dropped -0.8% mom

              US retail sales was flat at USD 619.9B in April, well below expectation of 0.5% mom rise. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.8% mom, missed expectation of 0.9% mom rise. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales dropped -0.8% mom.

              Full release here.

              Fed Williams: Balance sheet reduction can begin as soon in May

                New York Fed President John Williams said in a speech that FOMC communicated “two important message” about the likely future course of monetary policy during March meeting, along with the rate hike.

                Firstly, it expects that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” and “the median assessment of the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at the end of next year is expected to be somewhat above the median assessment of its longer-run level”.

                Secondly, FOMC expects to “decide at a coming meeting when to begin reducing its holdings of securities”. He added, “I expect that this process of reducing the size of the balance sheet can begin as soon as the May FOMC meeting”.

                “These actions should enable us to manage the proverbial soft landing in a way that maintains a sustained strong economy and labor market,” Williams said. “Both are well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy. In fact, I expect the economy to continue to grow this year and for the unemployment rate to remain close to its current level.”

                Full speech here.

                5 Star to find someone other than Savona as economy minister

                  The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement in Italy in is working hard on forming a government to solve the current political turmoil. It’s leader Luigi Di Maio met with President Sergio Mattarella today. After that, Di Maio said “let’s find someone of the same caliber as Savona, who would still remain in the government in another ministry.” And “If the League agrees … we can still form a government.”

                  Di Maio is now trying to find that “point of compromise” between Mattaralla and eurosceptic League. No name is thrown out yet and it could take some time to negotiate with League. Note that League leade rMatteo Salvini is pushing for another election as the effort to form a coalition government collapsed.

                  But after all, the development s calmed the markets mildly as Euro also recovered.

                  Australia’s consumer sentiment plummets post RBA rate hike

                    Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index saw a significant decline in November, dropping by -2.6% mom to 79.9, reflecting a deepening pessimism among consumers.

                    Westpac attributed this drop to the recent RBA rate hike, noting a -6% decrease in confidence during the survey period. Despite the overarching pessimism, labor market confidence and housing-related sentiment remained relatively stable.

                    Westpac further commented, “The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 5. The November Consumer Sentiment survey highlights the weak and uneven conditions across Australia’s consumer sector.

                    “How this plays out for wider domestic demand in the context of strong population growth is something the Board will need to consider as it acts to ensure inflation returns to target.”

                    Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

                    Euro in broad based selloff, another update on EUR/JPY short

                      Euro is suffering steep selloff just ahead of European session. In particular, EUR/USD’s break of 1.1507 support confirms medium term down trend resumption. The pair should be targeting 1.1186 fibonacci level next.

                      EUR/CHF is on course for 1.1366 support. Based on current momentum, the medium term correction from 1.2004 should be resuming for 1.1198 key support level before bottoming.

                      EUR/GBP also suffers steep pull back after failing 0.9043 fibonacci level. But for the cross, outlook stays bullish as long as 0.8854 support holds.

                      EUR/JPY’s break of 127.13 support confirms our view that corrective rise from 124.61 has completed with three waves up to 131.97 already. The larger fall from 137.49 could already be resuming.

                      Here is an update to our short position (sold at 128.60) as mentioned in prior comment. The development is in line with our expectations so far. We’ll hold short in EUR/JPY and lower the stop to 128.10 (slightly above 128.04 minor resistance). The stop is relatively wide for giving the position a bit of space to breathe in case of mild recovery. As noted before, we’re indeed eyeing at least a test on 124.61 low. We’re decide whether to take profit around there later, based on downside momentum in the cross.

                      Gold finally breaks out, to the downside, 1160 next

                        Gold finally breaks out from recent range, to the downside, through 1187.58 support. The development indicates that corrective rebound from 1160.36 has completed. We mark the end point of the correction at 1211.05. Deeper fall should be seen back to 1160.36 low next.

                        In the bigger picture, Gold is held comfortably below falling 55 day EMA. That suggests fall from 1365.24 is still in progress. Break of 1160.36 low will confirm decline resumption. In that case, next downside target will be 61.8% projection of 1365.24 to 1160.36 from 1211.05 at 1084.43.

                        USD/CNH defending 7 handle as US-China tension escalates

                          Some volatility is seen in USD/CNH today after the pair dips to as low as 6.9633 on broad based Dollar weakness, but recovers back above 7 handle quickly. Escalating US-China political tension is seen as a major factor driving the moves.

                          China’s foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin revealed that the US government gave China three days to close its consulate in Houston. Wang criticized that as “unprecedented escalation” and pledged to “react with firm counter measures if the US doesn’t “revoke this erroneous decision”.

                          Eurozone GDP contracted -3.6% in Q1, worst in France, Spain and Italy

                            Eurozone’s Q1 GDP contraction was revised up to -3.6% qoq, up from initial estimate of -3.8% qoq. That was still the sharpest decline on record since 1995. For EU, GDP contracted -3.2% qoq, also the worst since 1995.

                            Household final consumption expenditure had a strong negative contribution to GDP growth in both Eurozone and the EU (-2.5% and -2.3%, respectively) . Contribution from gross fixed capital formation was also negative in both zones (-1.0% and -0.9% respectively) as was the contribution of the external balance. Contribution of changes in inventories was positive for both zones (+0.3% for Eurozone and +0.4% for EU).

                            Among Member States for which data are available, Ireland (+1.2%), Bulgaria and Romania (both +0.3%) as well as Sweden (+0.1%) still recorded positive growth compared with the previous quarter. GDP fell in all other EU Member states, with the highest declines in France and Italy (both -5.3%) as well as Spain and Slovakia (both -5.2%).

                            Full release here.

                            CHF/JPY resumes up trend, heading to 156 next

                              CHF/JPY resumes recent up trend today by breaking through 153.93 resistance, and reaches as high as 154.38 so far. The move is firstly driven but return to weakness in Yen, following extended rally in US and European benchmark treasury yields. Nikkei also ended up for another day and closed above 31k handle, extending the run for the highest level in more than 30 years. Secondly, Swiss Franc is also rising against European majors, even though it’s starting to hesitate.

                              Near term outlook in CHF/JPY will now stay bullish as long as 149.77 support holds even in case of retreat. Next target is 161.8% projection of 137.40 to 147.58 from 140.21 at 156.68.

                              The momentum of CHF/JPY will very much depend on the performance of Swiss Franc elsewhere. In particular, if EUR/CHF could break through 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670 decisively towards 0.9407 low, CHF/JPY could accelerate up in tandem. However, bottoming and rebound in EUR/CHF from current level could cap CHF/JPY’s upside momentum.

                              Gold dives through 1900 on breakthroughs in Russia/Ukraine negotiations

                                Gold dives sharply on some progress in the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. It’s report that Ukrainian negotiators proposed a status under which it would not join alliances or host bases of foreign troops. Russia also promised to drastically scale down its military operations around Kyiv and the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv.

                                Gold’s break of 1894.77 support indicate resumption of the fall from 2070.06. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 2070.06 to 1894.77 from 1966.00 at 1857.67, and then 100% projection of 1790.71. Also, such fall is seen as the third leg of the correction pattern from 2074.84, and could head to 1682.60 support before completion.

                                Surging to new record, can gold maintain momentum towards 2500?

                                  Gold prices reached a new record high today, surpassing 2,110, before experiencing a slight pullback. This surge represents an extension of the recent two-month rally, initially sparked by the Israel-Hamas conflict,which heightened global geopolitical tensions and triggered a flight to safety among investors, bolstering demand for Gold.

                                  The upsurge in gold’s value is further fueled by growing expectations of monetary easing by key global central banks. Fed, along some other major global central banks like ECB are anticipated to implement interest rate cuts in the coming year. This speculation is a critical factor in the current Gold price dynamics, as lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold, making it more attractive to investors.

                                  Technically, initial resistance is seen at 100% projection of 1810.26 to 2009.26 from 1931.39 at 2130.39. Some consolidations might be seen first, and volatility could be high due to near term profit taking around prior record high of 2074.

                                  Nevertheless, outlook will stay bullish as long as 2009.26 resistance turned support holds, and further rally is expected. Sustained break above 2130.39 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 2253.37.

                                  However, the broader picture for Gold’s long-term trend revolves around whether it can maintain enough buying momentum to reach 100% projection of 1160.17 to 2704.84 from 1614.60 at 2529.27, surpassing 2500 mark. The potential to achieve this ambitious target hinges on whether there will be a global loosening of monetary policy next year and if geopolitical tensions persist or escalate further.

                                  New Zealand Dollar jumps as RBNZ sectoral factor model CPI improved

                                    New Zealand CPI rose 0.4% qoq, 1.5% yoy in Q2, accelerated from Q1’s 0.5% qoq and 1.1% yoy. The headline number missed expectations of 0.5% qoq, 1.6% yoy. However New Zealand Dollar later reacts to RBNZ’s own prices data. Most notably, the sectoral factor model CPI rose to 1.7% yoy in Q2. There were continuous imrpvements since last year from 1.4% in Q3 2017 to 1.5% in Q4 2017 to 1.6% in Q1 2018.

                                    The sectoral factor model CPI was created by RBNA to estimate the common component of inflation in the CPI basket, the tradable basket, and the non-tradable basket, based upon separate factors for the tradable and non-tradable sectors. The data excludes GST. It’s one of RBNZ’s preferred core inflation gauge.

                                    AUD/NZD dives sharply after the release after it was one again rejected by 61.8% retracement of 1.1289 to 1.0486 at 1.0982. Deeper fall should now be seen back to 1.0844 support first. Further break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0823) will target 1.0656 key support level.

                                    China Dec trade balance: Massive -35.8% yoy fall in US imports; exports and imports contracted most since 2016

                                      China posted a set of very disappointing trade data today. Exports and imports posted biggest contraction since 2016. More importantly, imports from the US dropped a massive -35.8% yoy in the month. But for the year, trade surplus with the US hit a record high.

                                      In USD terms in December,

                                      • Trade surplus widened to USD 57.1B, above expectation of USD 51.6B.
                                      • However, exports dropped -4.4% yoy to USD 221.3B.
                                      • Imports dropped -7.6% yoy to USD 164.2B.
                                      • Both imports and exports suffered the steepest decline since 2016.

                                      Staying in December,

                                      • With the US, export dropped -3.5% yoy to USD 40.3B, imports dropped a massive -35.8% yoy to USD 10.4B.
                                      • With EU, exports dropped -0.3% yoy to USD 37.6B, imports dropped -2.7% yoy to USD 22.5B.
                                      • With Australia, exports dropped -5.2% yoy to USD 4.0B, imports dropped -3.4% yoy to USD 7.3B.

                                      For the year as a whole,

                                      • With the US, exports rose 11.3% yoy to USD 478.3B, imports rose just 0.7% yoy to USD 155.1B.
                                      • Trade surplus with the US jumped 17.2% yoy to USD 323.2B, highest on record.
                                      • With EU, exports 9.8% yoy to USD 408.6B, imports rose 11.7% yoy to USD 273.4B.
                                      • Trade surplus with EU rose 6.2% yoy to USD 135.1B.
                                      • With Australia, exports rose 14.2% yoy to USD 47.3B, imports rose 11.2% to 105.45B.
                                      • Trade deficit with Australia rose 8.9% yoy to USD 58.1B.

                                      Link to China customs department data, in simplified Chinese.

                                      Eurozone CPI finalized at 5.5% in Jun, core CPI at 5.5%

                                        Eurozone CPI was finalized at 5.5% yoy in June, down from May’s 6.1% yoy. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.5% yoy, up from May’s 5.3% yoy.

                                        The highest contribution to annual Eurozone inflation rate came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.35%), followed by services (+2.31%), non-energy industrial goods (+1.42%) and energy (-0.57%).

                                        EU CPI was finalized at 6.4% yoy, down from May’s 7.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Luxembourg (1.0%), Belgium and Spain (both 1.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (19.9%), Slovakia (11.3%) and Czechia (11.2%). Compared with May, annual inflation fell in twenty-five Member States, remained stable in one and rose in one.

                                        Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

                                        Hong Kong Central Bank Intervenes as HKD Hit Weak Side of Trading Band

                                          The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has just intervened in the currency market as the HK dollar (HKD) hit the weak side (7.85) of the trading band against US dollar (USD), the first time since 2005. The de facto central bank of the city has bought HK$816M Hong Kong dollars from the currency market. The intervention would lower the aggregate balance to HK$178.96 billion on April 16, when the withdrawn funds will be settled. Interbank liquidity would stay ample after the withdrawal. We do not think this would help much, if any, in narrowing the spread between HIBOR and LIBOR, the key reason causing capital to flow out of Hong Kong and hence weakness of HKD. As such, we do not feel surprised to see HKD to hit the weak side of the trading band again and this might lead to further HKMA intervention.