Sat, May 04, 2024 @ 07:06 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 582

Live Comments

Random

Fed George: More abrupt changes in interest rates could create strains

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Kansas City Fed president Esther George said, “this is already a historically swift pace of rate increases for households and businesses to adapt to, and more abrupt changes in interest rates could create strains, either in the economy or financial markets,”

    “I find it remarkable that just four months after beginning to raise rates, there is growing discussion of recession risk, and some forecasts are predicting interest rate cuts as soon as next year. Such projections suggest to me that a rapid pace of rate increases brings about the risk of tightening policy more quickly than the economy and markets can adjust,” she added.

    US initial claims dropped to 216k, but Dec durable goods missed

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      US headline durable goods orders rose 1.2% in December, below expectation of 1.8%. Ex-transport orders rose 0.1%, below expectation of 0.3% . Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook dropped to -4.1 in February, down from 17 and missed expectation of 14.8.

      Initial jobless claims dropped -23k to 216k in the week ending February 16, between than expectation of 230k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4k to 237.75k, highest since January 20, 2018. Continuing claims dropped -55k to 1.725M. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2.75k to 1.755M.

      AUD/USD short strategy reinstated after China’s RRR cut ignored

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        The impact of PBoC’s RRR cut on the market was rather muted today. Or actually, it’s done it job of preventing more serious selloff in the stock markets. Shanghai SSE’s -3.72% loss today is rather reasonable considering the selloff in other Asian markets last week. Anyway, AUD/USD was rather unmoved and the overall technical outlook is unchanged. That is, the down trend from 0.8135 is in progress for a test on 0.6826 key support level.

        As the volatility risk is now past, we’d reinstate our strategy discussed in the week report. That is, we’ll sell AUD/USD at 0.7100, slightly above 0.7096 minor resistance. Stop will be placed at 0.7185, slightly above 50% retracement of 0.7314 to 0.7040 at 0.7178. 0.6826 is the first target, which gives risk/reward at 1/3.22. We’ll decide if we’ll get out earlier, or hold through the target, after looking at the momentum of the next fall.

        Mid-US Update: DOW hits record, Gold back above 1200, German-Italian spread breaks 300

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          The forex markets are relatively dull in the first half of US session, comparing to other markets. DOW extends recent up trend and hit another record high at 26793.35. Based on current momentum, more lies ahead. At the time of writing, DOW is up 0.52%, S&P 500 and NASDAQ lags behind, up only 0.19% and 0.15% respectively. Treasury yield are soft today with 10 year yield down -0.026 for the moment.

          Fortune of European stocks is the opposite. FTSE closed down -0.28%, DAX down -0.42%, CAC down even deeper by -0.71%. German 10 year bund year dropped -0.0516 to 0.424. Italy 10 year yield rose 0.1369 to 3.442. That is, German-Italian yield spread is at 3.018, larger than 300 finally.

          Gold stages a strong rebound and is now back above 1200 handle. Current development suggests that prior dip to 1180.86 was just part of a near term correction pattern. Focus is immediately back to 1214.30 resistance. And break will resume the medium term rebound from 1160.36.

          In the forex markets, Yen remains the strongest one for today, followed by Canadian Dollar. Sterling and Australian Dollar are the weakest ones. Strength in Gold is in a way pressuring Dollar and we might seen some more downside in the greenback before the US session ends.

          Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 99.9 in Jan, EU up to 98.0

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 97.1 to 99.9 in January. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 107.4 to 110.1. Economic Uncertainty Indicator dropped from 27.5 to 26.2. Industry confidence rose from -0.6 to 1.3. Services confidence rose from 7.7 to 10.7. Consumer confidence rose from -22.1 to -20.9. Retail trade confidence rose from -2.7 to -0.8. Construction confidence dropped from 3.6 to 1.3.

            EU Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 95.7 to 98.0. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 106.2 to 108.5 Economic Uncertainty Indicator dropped from 27.0 to 25.9. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI increased markedly in France (+4.4), Spain (+2.7), Germany (+2.5), Italy (+1.7) and, to a lesser extent, the Netherlands (+0.5), while it was unchanged in Poland (±0.0).

            Full release here.

            US and China held constructive phone call on trade

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              A phone call was held between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday morning. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said “constructive” discussions about each side’s core concerns regarding the phase-one trade deal were held. Both sides agreed to stay in close communications. It’s also reported that both sides have held working-level video calls on details and timeline of China’s agricultural purchases.

              Separately, US President Donald Trump hailed that “Our great Farmers will receive another major round of ‘cash,’ compliments of China Tariffs, prior to Thanksgiving.” “The smaller farms and farmers will be big beneficiaries. In the meantime, and as you may have noticed, China is starting to buy big again. Japan deal DONE. Enjoy!”

              For now, there is no indication on when the phase-one trade deal would be completed and signed.

              AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY downside breakouts on risk aversion

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY break out to the downside on risk aversion in Asian markets. AUD/JPY’s fall from 85.78 resumed and hits as low as as 80.98 so far. Rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA is a near term bearish sign and outlook will stay bearish as long as 82.80 resistance.

                Immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 73.12 to 85.78 at 80.94, which is close to medium term channel support. Sustained break there will argue that the fall from 85.78 is indeed corrective whole up trend from 59.85. Deeper fall could then be seen back to 73.12/78.44 support next next.

                CAD/JPY also breaks through 87.08 support to resume the whole decline from 91.16. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 88.69 resistance holds. Current fall would target 38.2% retracement of 77.91 to 91.16 at 86.09. Reaction from there would unveil whether it’s correcting the rise from 77.91, or the whole up trend from 73.80.

                Yen falls broadly as BoJ strengthens the framework for continuous powerful easing

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  Yen is sold off sharply after BoJ announced the “Strengthening the Framework for Continuous Powerful Monetary Easing”.

                  10 year JGB yields hit as high as 0.115 earlier today but breaches below 0.07 after BoJ release.

                  On Yield Curve Control framework BoJ voted 7-2 on the following decision. Firstly, short term interest rate target is held unchanged at -0.1%. Secondly, 10 year JGB yield target is maintained at around 0%. But, “yields may move upward and downward to some extent mainly depending on developments in economic activity and prices”. The annual pace of monetary expansion is kept at around JPY 80T. BoJ also noted that “in case of a rapid increase in the yields, the Bank will purchase JGBs promptly and appropriately”.

                  Y Harada and G Kataoka dissented the above decision. Harada said allowing long term yields to move upward and downward was to some extent “too ambiguous”. Kataoka continued his push to broaden the target to JGB of 10-years and longer.

                  BoJ also added forward guidance on interest rate. It said “the Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time, taking into account uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including the effects of the consumption tax hike scheduled to take place in October 2019.”

                  Full release here.

                  Japan PMI Manufacturing finalized at 38.4, conditions to remain fragile until sustained demand improvement

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    Japan PMI Manufacturing is finalized at 38.4 in May, down from April’s 41.9, lowest since March 2009. Markit said production fell at sharper rate as coronavirus disruption continued. New orders plummeted to an extend not seen since the global financial crisis. Suppliers’ delivery times lengthened sharply once again.

                    Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “While easing lockdown measures will be positive for the economic environment, it is clear that dislocations will remain, which will continue to hinder supply chains, impact global trade and make operating conditions challenging for manufacturers. Until we see a sustained improvement in demand, manufacturing conditions are likely to remain fragile.”

                    Full release here.

                    Also from released, capital spending rose 4.3% in Q1, versus expectation of -4.2% decline.

                    UK to engage constructively with the EU on Brexit talks

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Brexit negotiation will resume on Tuesday. UK’s chief negotiation David Frost will host his EU counterpart Michel Barnier for dinner later today. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokes said ahead of the meeting, “our position on our sovereignty, laws and fisheries is clear, we will not give up our rights as an independent state.”

                      “We will continue to engage constructively with the EU on these key issues and will work hard to reach the broad outline of an agreement, but as we have been clear all along we are not asking for a special, bespoke or unique deal,” the spokesman added.

                      US non-farm payroll grew 850k in Jun, unemployment rate rose to 5.9%

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        US non-farm payroll employment grew 850k in June, well above expectation of 675k. Prior month’s figure was also revised up from 559k to 583k growth. Total employment was up by 15.6% since April 2020, but down by -6.5m, or -4.4%, since pre pandemic level in February 2020.

                        BLS also said, “notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services.”

                        Unemployment rate rose to 5.9%, up from 5.8%, above expectation of 5.6%. But number of unemployment person was little changed at 9.5m. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, versus expectation of 0.4% mom.

                        Full release here.

                        Australia employment rose 178.8k in Oct, hours worked surged

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          Australia added 178.8k jobs in October, much better than expectation of -30.0k decline. Full-time jobs rose 97k while part-time jobs rose 81.8k. Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.0%, better than expectation of 7.2%. Also, participation rate jumped notably by 0.9% to 65.8%. Monthly hours worked jumped 21million or 1.2%.

                          Bjorn Jarvis, head of Labour Statistics at the ABS, said: “This strong increase means that employment in October was only 1.7 per cent below March, and reflects a large flow of people from outside the labour force back into employment. Encouragingly, the rise in employment was also accompanied by a strong rise in hours worked, particularly in Victoria, where hours increased by 5.6 per cent.”

                          Full release here.

                          RBNZ’s Orr highlights struggle with core inflation and migration impact

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, in his address to a parliament select committee today, emphasized there is “still a long way to go” to curb inflation. He added, “it’s core inflation that’s going to be our challenge ahead”.

                            Orr also noted the complexity of this challenge, pointing out that much of the core inflation factors are entrenched within central and local government influences, including rates and taxes. He cautioned that tackling these elements in the “last five yards on the inflation battle is going to be tough.”

                            Adding to the economic challenges, Orr highlighted the current record-high levels of net inward migration in New Zealand. This surge in migration has surpassed RBNZ’s expectations and presents additional complexities for monetary policy, housing demand, asset prices, and the general inflation outlook.

                            Regarding the country’s economic growth, Orr mentioned that GDP was “surprisingly subdued,” with a contraction of -0.3% in Q3. He indicated that RBNZ is internalizing this complex situation and will provide more detailed insights in their monetary policy statement due in February.

                            Japan tankan large manufacturing dropped to -34, worst since 2009

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              BoJ’s Tankan large manufacturing index dropped to -34 in Q2, down from -8, hitting the lowest level since 2009. That’s also worse than expectation of -31. Manufacturing outlook for September dropped to -27. Large non-manufacturing index dropped to -17, slightly better than expectation of -18. Non-manufacturing outlook also dropped to -14, but beat expectation of -15. On the positive side, all large industry capex rose 3.2%, versus expectation of 2.1%.

                              Full release here.

                              ECB SPF: Economists downgrade eurozone growth and inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2020

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                In the latest ECB survey for Q2, professional forecasters revised down growth, inflation and core inflation forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. Inflation are projected to be below ECB’s 2% target over the whole forecast horizon. Also, the reported noted that “probability distributions continued to indicate relatively high uncertainty around expected inflation in two years’ time.”

                                On growth, “respondents considered the current level of uncertainty to be very high and to be having an economic impact, mainly via companies’ investment decisions.” Also “risks to the forecasts for real GDP growth remained to the downside.” The most cited downside risks was “potential impact of a hard Brexit. Many respondents refer to “further escalation of trade conflict between US and China, an the apparent slowdown in China”. “Very few”mentioned upside risks.

                                HICP inflation forecasts (previous at Q1 2019):

                                • 2019 at 1.4% (down from 1.5%)
                                • 2020 at 1.5% (down from 1.6%)
                                • 2021 at 1.6% (down from 1.7%)
                                • Longer term at 1.8% (unchanged)

                                HICP core inflation forecast:

                                • 2019 at 1.2% (down from 1.3%)
                                • 2020 at 1.4% (down from 1.5%)
                                • 2021 at 1.6% (unchanged)
                                • Longer term at 1.7% (unchanged)

                                GDP growth forecast:

                                • 2019 at 1.2% (down from 1.5%)
                                • 2020 at 1.4% (down from 1.5%)
                                • 2021 at 1.4% (unchanged)
                                • Longer term at 1.4% (down from 1.5%).

                                US PCE inflation slowed to 6.3% yoy, core PCE down to 4.9% yoy

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  US personal income rose 0.5% mom, or USD 89.3B, in April, below expectation of 0.6% mom. Personal spending rose 0.9% mom, or USD 152.3B, above expectation of 0.7% mom.

                                  Headline PCE price index slowed from 6.6% yoy to 6.3% yoy, below expectation of 6.6% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed from 5.2% yoy to 4.9% yoy, matched expectations. Energy prices rose 30.4% yoy while food prices rose 10.0% yoy.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Eurozone exports rose 17.2% yoy, imports up 20.2% yoy in Nov

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Eurozone export of goods to the world rose 17.2% yoy to EUR 264.7B in November. Imports rose 20.2% yoy to EUR 276.3B. Trade deficit came in at EUR -11.7B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 16.8% yoy to EUR 241.5B.

                                    In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 1.0% mom to EUR 251.5B. Imports dropped -3.8% mom to EUR 266.7B. Trade deficit narrowed from October’s EUR -28.1B to EUR -15.2B, versus expectation of EUR -20.0B. Intraday Eurozone trade dropped from October’s EUR 233.4B to EUR 232.2B.

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoE Carney: Global negative spillovers to UK increasing, drag from Brexit uncertainties intensifying

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      BoE Governor Mark Carney said in a speech that the robust, broad-based expansion in the global economy has turned into a widespread slowdown. He warned “the latest actions raise the possibility that trade tensions could be far more pervasive, persistent and damaging than previously expected.” Risks have shifted to the downside.

                                      Regarding UK, Carney said Q2 is likely to be “considerably weaker” than Q1. Also, “recent data also raise the possibility that the negative spillovers to the UK from a weaker world economy are increasing and the drag from Brexit uncertainties on underlying growth here could be intensifying.” Also, “underlying growth in the UK is currently running below its potential, and is heavily reliant on the resilience of household spending.”

                                      Further, Carney warned “a no deal outcome would result in an immediate, material reduction in the supply capacity of the UK economy as well as a negative shock to demand. And, “as in other advanced economies, if there is a material trade shock, other policies, including fiscal policy, would likely need to play important roles in supporting the economy.”

                                      Carney’s full speech here.

                                      ECB: Professional forecasters see deeper GDP contraction in 2020, stronger rebound afterwards

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        According to the last ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, the economy is projected to have a deeper contraction of -8.3% in 2020 (vs prior -5.5%). Nevertheless, stronger GDP growth is expected in 2021 (5.7% vs prior 4.3%) and 2022 (2.4% vs prior 1.7%).

                                        HICP forecast was kept unchanged at 0.4% for 2020. But it was revised lower to 1.0% in 2021 (prior 1.2%) and 1.3% in 2022 (prior 1.4%).

                                        Unemployment rate forecast for 2020 was revised down to 9.1% (prior 9.4%). But it was revised up to 9.3% in 2021 (prior 8.9%) and 8.5% in 2022 (prior 8.4%).

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoE hikes by 25bps, three members want 50bps

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          BoE raises the Bank Rate by 25bps to 1.25%. The decision was not unanimous, with three members (Catherine Mann, Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel) voted for a 50bps hike. The MPC said it will take necessary actions to return inflation to 2% target. The scale, pace and timing of further rate hikes will reflect the assessment of economic outlook and inflation pressures.

                                          Nevertheless, it emphasized, “the Committee will be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response.”

                                          BoE also said GDP was weaker than expected in April, and it expect GDP to fall by -0.3% in Q2 as a while, weaker than anticipated at in the May Monetary Policy Report. CPI inflation’s rise to 9% was “close to expectations” at the time of the May report. CPI is expected to be over 9% “during the next few months” and rise to “slightly above 11% in October.

                                          Full statement here.

                                          1...581582583...662Page 582 of 662

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.