Fed’s Goolsbee: Jobs data weak, but recession not imminent

    Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee addressed the recent economic concerns in an interview with CNBC, noting that last Friday’s jobs numbers were “weaker than expected” but not yet indicative of a recession.

    He emphasized the Fed’s commitment to its core mandates: “The Fed’s job is very straightforward: maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. That’s what we’re going to do.”

    Goolsbee highlighted the Fed’s forward-looking approach, stating, “If the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.”

    UK unemployment rate stayed at 45-yr low, wage growth picked up

      UK unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8% in the three months to May, matched expectations. It was the lowest level since December 1974. Average weekly earnings including bonus grew 3.4% 3moy, much higher than expectation of 3.1% 3moy. Average weekly earnings excluding bonus also grew 3.6% 3moy, above expectation of 3.5% 3moy. In June, jobless claims rose 38.0k, above expectation of 18.9k.Claimant count rate rose 0.1% to 3.2%.

      Sterling drops notably earlier today and remains weak despite stronger than expected wage growth. EUR/GBP is extending rise from 0.8472 towards 0.9101 key resistance. Considering loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. We’d expect strong resistance below 0.9101 to limit upside.

      Fed Barkin: We have a look of time before July FOMC meeting

        In a Bloomberg interview, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin rejected the idea that a July rate cut is a done deal. He emphasized “we have a lot of time left before the meeting, we’ll see what happens.”

        For now, he said the economy was not heading to a recession. He added “I actually still feel pretty good about the economy… I don’t see any issues on the consumer side of the house”.

        Though, risks to outlook is “a little more tilted to the downside” for fragile business confidence. Indicators for second-quarter growth are less strong.

        SECO: Swiss economic growth sluggish in 2024, moderate recovery expected in 2025

          Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs forecasts the economy to perform “considerably below average” in 2024, with modest growth expected to pick up in 2025. Adjusted for major sporting events, GDP growth is projected to be at 1.2% for 2024, unchanged from June’s estimates. However, the outlook for 2025 has been slightly downgraded to 1.6%, compared to June forecast of 1.7%.

          Inflation is now expected to decline faster than previously thought, with projections for 2024 revised down to 1.2% (from 1.4% in June) and 0.7% for 2025 (down from 1.1%). This easing of inflationary pressures reflects lower price growth, especially in sectors impacted by the strong appreciation of the Swiss Franc.

          SECO acknowledged the challenges posed by sluggish economic activity in Europe, which, alongside the real appreciation of the Swiss Franc, is straining export-sensitive sectors in Switzerland this year. Looking ahead, gradual recovery in Europe is expected to support Swiss exports and boost investments in 2025, helping to stabilize growth across key sectors.

          Full Swiss SECO release here.

          ECB’s Panetta calls for easing as inflation declines and economic weakness persists

            Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta emphasized the need for further easing of restrictive monetary conditions in the Eurozone, citing concerns about economic softness amid declining inflation.

            Panetta highlighted in a speech today that as inflation moderates, it’s essential to consider “the weakness of the real economy” and avoid deepening the downturn.

            “In the absence of a firm recovery we would run the risk of pushing inflation well below target, a situation that monetary policy would struggle to counter, and which must be avoided,” he added.

            Eurozone PPI rises 1.6% mom, energy prices drive monthly gains

              Eurozone producer prices rebounded more than expected in November, with PPI rising 1.6% mom, surpassing market forecasts of 1.5% mom. On an annual basis, PPI improved to -1.2% yoy from -3.3% in October, slightly better than the anticipated -1.3% yoy. The data highlights the ongoing influence of energy price volatility on the region’s industrial sector.

              Breaking down the monthly changes, Eurozone’s energy prices surged by 5.4% mom, providing the largest contribution to the overall increase. Intermediate goods saw a modest decline of -0.1% mom, while prices for capital goods and non-durable consumer goods remained stable. Durable consumer goods recorded a slight decline of -0.2% mom.

              At the EU level, industrial producer prices climbed by 1.7% mom but fell -1.1% yoy. Among member states, Bulgaria (+4.9%), Ireland (+4.5%), and Sweden (+4.2%) posted the highest monthly gains in producer prices, reflecting the energy-driven rise. Conversely, Estonia, Cyprus (-1.4% each), Slovakia (-0.5%), and Luxembourg (-0.4%) saw the sharpest declines, highlighting regional disparities.

              Full Eurozone PPI release here.

              ECB’s Lagarde advocates cheque book strategy to handle Trump’s tariff threats

                In an interview with the Financial Times, ECB President Christine Lagarde proposed a measured approach to handling U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, favoring a “cheque book strategy” over outright retaliation.

                Trump has outlined plans for sweeping tariffs, including a 60% levy on Chinese goods and a 10-20% range on imports from other countries, including Europe. Lagarde interpreted the range as a negotiating tactic, suggesting Trump is “open to discussion.”

                Lagarde expressed preference for a “cheque book strategy” over a “pure retaliation strategy.” She explained that Europe could offer to purchase certain US goods and signal readiness for constructive dialogue.

                “This is a better scenario than a pure retaliation strategy, which can lead to a tit-for-tat process where no one is really a winner,” she stated.

                On the inflationary effects of tariffs, Lagarde admitted the outcome remains uncertain. She explained that the net impact on inflation would depend on various factors, including GDP shifts, currency movements, the specific goods targeted, and the duration of the tariffs.

                “If anything, maybe it’s a little net inflationary in the short term,” she remarked, but emphasized the difficulty of forming a conclusive view without further details.

                Full interview of ECB’s Lagarde here.

                Gold breaks 1900, upside acceleration ahead?

                  Gold’s rally resumes today and hits as high as 1913.79 so far, breaking 1900 handle. It’s now eyeing 1916.30 resistance. Break there will extend current rise from 1682.60 to 100% projection of 1682.60 to 1877.05 from 1752.12 at 1946.57.

                  Also, it should be pointed out that, firstly, sustained break of 1916.30 should confirm that whole correction from 2074.84 (2020 high) has completed at 1682.60, after defending 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84. Secondly, sustained break of 1946.57 would likely bring upside acceleration.

                  In this case, Gold could be quickly shot up to 161.8% projection at 2066.74, which is close to 2074.84 high.

                  Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.9, remained deep in decline, downturn fiercest in Germany

                    Eurozone PMI manufacturing was finalized at 47.9, revised up from 47.8. It was just a slight improvement from March’s six-year low of 47.5. Also, it’s in contraction region below 50 for three consecutive months. Markit noted there were further marked fall in new orders recorded. Also, Germany continues to lead downturn but Greece expands at fastest rate in nearly 19 years.

                    Looking at the member states, German’s reading was revised down to 44.4, a two month high but remained close to March’s 80-month low at 44.1. Italy and Austria stayed in contraction at 49.1 and 49.2 respectively. France reading was revised up to 50.0, indicating flat activity. Greece reading, though, rose to 226-mont high at 56.6.

                    Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                    “The manufacturing sector remained deep in decline at the start of the second quarter. Although the PMI rose for the first time in nine months, the April reading was the second-lowest seen over the past six years, signalling a deterioration of overall business conditions for a third successive month. The survey’s output index is indicative of factory production falling at a quarterly rate of approximately 1%, setting the scene for the goods producing sector to act as a major drag on the economy in the second quarter.

                    “The downturn remains the fiercest in Germany, with Italy and Austria also in decline and France stagnating. Spain’s expansion remains only modest.

                    “Some encouragement can be gained from the PMIs having risen in all four largest euro member states in April, and forward-looking indicators such as future expectations, new order inflows and the orders-to-inventory ratio having all come off their lows. But it remains too early to call a turning point, especially as future sentiment remains around its lowest level since the end of 2012, hinting that the manufacturing downturn will persist in the coming months.

                    “The surveys continue to see widespread concerns over weak global demand as well as reports of businesses struggling amid rising trade protectionism, Brexit and the subdued auto sector.

                    “The steepest fall in backlogs of work since late 2012 meanwhile suggests firms will increasingly look for cost-cutting opportunities and exercise increased caution with respect to hiring.”

                    Full release here.

                    Gold in second leg of medium term consolidation with current rebound

                      Gold’s break of 55 day EMA now suggests that fall from 1703.28 has completed at 1451.16. Notable support was seen from 55 week EMA and above 1445.59 structural level. Nevertheless, such decline is just seen as the third leg of a medium term corrective pattern, to the whole rise from 1160.17. Therefore, while further rebound could be seen, upside should be limited by 1703.28 high. Another falling leg is expected at a later stage, to complete a three-wave corrective pattern.

                      The eventual depth of the correction would very much depend on the strength of the current second leg rebound. We’d keep open the case for a take of 1365.26 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1160.17 to 1703.28 at 1367.63) before completing the correction.

                      ECB consumer survey reveals declining inflation expectations

                        ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for December highlighted a noteworthy trend in consumer sentiment regarding inflation and economic growth.

                        In a positive development, consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months have decreased for the third consecutive month, with median inflation expectation falling to 3.2%, a drop from November’s 3.5% and October’s 4.0%.

                        Conversely, the survey indicated a slight uptick in medium-term inflation expectations, with three-year ahead inflation expectations median rising marginally from 2.4% to 2.5%, although this figure remains below 2.6% observed in October.

                        On the economic growth front, the survey’s findings were relatively stable, with mean growth expectation for the next 12 months remaining unchanged at -1.3%. Furthermore, the survey revealed a slight improvement in unemployment outlook, with expected mean unemployment rate declining from 11.4% to 11.2%, compared to 11.6% in October.

                        Full ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results here.

                        BoE’s Pill questions cut pace, says inflation risks may delay easing

                          BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill signaled that the central bank may need to reconsider its steady pace of easing if shifts in longer-term inflation dynamics persist. In a briefing to business leaders, Pill acknowledged that inflation pressures are likely to keep easing, but warned that price- and wage-setting behavior” may delay further policy easing.

                          “That might lead us to… question whether the pace at which we’re reducing Bank Rate… is sustainable,” he said, referencing the quarterly 25bps cut rhythm the BoE has maintained over the past year.

                          Pill’s comments help clarify the reasoning behind Thursday’s unexpectedly tight 5–4 policy vote, where he and three other members dissented against the 25bps cut to 4.00%. The majority, including Governor Andrew Bailey, favored continuing the easing path. But the split exposed growing concern within the Monetary Policy Committee over stickier inflation risks. Pill said the more hawkish voters are focused on upside risks driven by behavioral shifts rather than headline inflation itself.

                          Traders are now pushing back expectations for the next cut, with futures no longer fully pricing a 25bps move before February. Pill’s remarks reinforce the message that while policy is still on a downward path, the pace may slow if inflation proves more persistent beneath the surface.

                          Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook jumped to 17, vs expectation 10.1

                            Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook rose notably to 17 in January, up from 9.4 and beat expectation of 10.1.

                            Looking at the details, the general activity and new orders indicators increased from their readings last month, while the indicators for shipments and employment decreased. The firms reported growth in the underlying demand for their products and are generally optimistic about future growth and employment.

                            Full release here.

                            US GDP grew 2.1% in Q2, above expectation of 1.8%

                              US GDP grew 2.1% annualized in Q2, better than expectation of 1.8%. GDP price index rose 2.4% qoq, below expectation of 4.0% qoq.

                              There were contributions from GDP growth from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and state and local government spending. They were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

                              Deceleration in growth reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

                              Full release here.

                              US GDP shrinks -0.3% annualized in Q1, price pressures building up

                                The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1, with GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first decline since Q2 2022 and falling well short of expectations for modest 0.4% growth.

                                The surprise contraction was driven by a surge in imports and a pullback in government spending, which more than offset gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

                                Compounding the disappointing headline figure, inflation pressures showed renewed strength. The GDP price index jumped to 3.7% yoy, significantly above the 3.1% yoy forecast and accelerating from 2.3% yoy in Q4.

                                Full US GDP release here.

                                UK NIESR projects -3.4% GDP contraction in Q1

                                  NIESR estimated a 0.9% growth in UK GDP in Q4 of 2020, implying a total contraction of -9.8% for the whole year. With tight restrictions and some post-Brexit adjustment, Q1 is forecast to have negative growth on -3.4%. It added, “the short-term negative economic impact of lockdowns should be outweighed by the potential positive long-term health and economic impacts from controlling the virus and restoring confidence.”

                                  “Today’s ONS data confirm a significant slowdown in the last quarter of 2020, despite November’s lockdown in England clearly having a far smaller effect than the first. Surveys and high frequency indicators suggest that recovery from the Covid-19 shock was weak even before a third lockdown become necessary in January. Temporary and permanent adjustments post-Brexit transition period are likely to also weigh on growth in the early part of 2021, but the vaccine roll-out provides some encouragement for consumption and investment in the second half of 2021 and beyond. The economic impact of the lockdowns is clearly negative in the short-term but will be significantly positive in the medium term if successful in controlling the virus and restoring confidence.” Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

                                  Full release here.

                                  UK May and ministers to work on the Brexit blueprint in the Chequers

                                    UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to have a “sleepover” meeting with her cabinet in the Chequers to straighten out all issues on post Brexit relationship with EU. Supposedly, another white paper will be published on July 9 as the government finally agrees on a unified position, as the blueprint for further negotiations with the EU. The pressing issue is how the UK would likely to replace the membership of the EU’s customs union which still provides “frictionless trade”. The border of Irelands is another sticky issue that hasn’t been solved.

                                    Ahead of the meeting, May said “we want a deal that allows us to deliver the benefits of Brexit – taking control of our borders, laws and money and by signing ambitious new trade deals with countries like the US, Australia and New Zealand.” And, “this is about agreeing an approach that delivers decisively on the verdict of the British people – an approach that is in the best interests of the UK and the EU, and crucially, one that commands the support of the public and parliament.”

                                    UK, Germany and France urged US not to obstruct JCPoA Iran deal implementation

                                      Below is the full joint statement of the UK, Germany and France.

                                      Joint statement from Prime Minister Theresa May, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron following President Trump’s statement on Iran.

                                      It is with regret and concern that we, the Leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom take note of President Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States of America from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

                                      Together, we emphasise our continuing commitment to the JCPoA. This agreement remains important for our shared security. We recall that the JCPoA was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council in resolution 2231. This resolution remains the binding international legal framework for the resolution of the dispute about the Iranian nuclear programme. We urge all sides to remain committed to its full implementation and to act in a spirit of responsibility.

                                      According to the IAEA, Iran continues to abide by the restrictions set out by the JCPoA, in line with its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The world is a safer place as a result. Therefore we, the E3, will remain parties to the JCPoA. Our governments remain committed to ensuring the agreement is upheld, and will work with all the remaining parties to the deal to ensure this remains the case including through ensuring the continuing economic benefits to the Iranian people that are linked to the agreement.

                                      We urge the US to ensure that the structures of the JCPoA can remain intact, and to avoid taking action which obstructs its full implementation by all other parties to the deal. After engaging with the US Administration in a thorough manner over the past months, we call on the US to do everything possible to preserve the gains for nuclear non-proliferation brought about by the JCPoA, by allowing for a continued enforcement of its main elements.

                                      We encourage Iran to show restraint in response to the decision by the US; Iran must continue to meet its own obligations under the deal, cooperating fully and in a timely manner with IAEA inspection requirements. The IAEA must be able to continue to carry out its long-term verification and monitoring programme without restriction or hindrance. In turn, Iran should continue to receive the sanctions relief it is entitled to whilst it remains in compliance with the terms of the deal.

                                      There must be no doubt: Iran’s nuclear program must always remain peaceful and civilian. While taking the JCPOA as a base, we also agree that other major issues of concern need to be addressed. A long-term framework for Iran’s nuclear programme after some of the provisions of the JCPOA expire, after 2025, will have to be defined. Because our commitment to the security of our allies and partners in the region is unwavering, we must also address in a meaningful way shared concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its destabilising regional activities, especially in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. We have already started constructive and mutually beneficial discussions on these issues, and the E3 is committed to continuing them with key partners and concerned states across the region.

                                      We and our Foreign Ministers will reach out to all parties to the JCPoA to seek a positive way forward.

                                      UK Hammond: The governor will not vote for no-deal Brexit

                                        More from Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond. He told BBC radio that “The government is very clear where the will of parliament is on this. Parliament will vote not to leave the European Union without a deal,” and he had “a high degree of confidence about that.”

                                        At the same time, he also warned that voting against Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal, the UK “will then be in unknown territory where a consensus will have to be forged across the House of Commons and that will inevitably mean compromises being made.”

                                        CAD/JPY ready for down trend resumption as Canada CPI looms

                                          Today, Canada’s consumer inflation data takes center stage as markets anticipate a slowdown in headline inflation from 5.9% yoy to 5.4% yoy in February. If this decrease materializes, it would mark the lowest inflation reading in over a year. BoC’s preferred core inflation metrics, the trimmed and median CPI, are also projected to decelerate from 5.1% yoy to 4.8% yoy and from 5.0% yoy to 4.8% yoy, respectively.

                                          BoC became the first major central bank to pause its tightening cycle last Wednesday, following eight consecutive rate hikes totaling 425 basis points. Market participants are still expecting one more rate increase this year, but these odds could dwindle if inflation continues to decline.

                                          CAD/JPY is closely watching the 94.61 support level after a recent drop. A decisive break below this threshold would rekindle the broader downtrend from the 110.87 high and aim for a 61.8% projection of 110.87 to 94.61 from 100.85 at 90.80. However, if the cross breaks above 97.53 resistance, it could delay the bearish scenario and extend the corrective pattern from 94.61 with another upswing.