Mon, Jun 21, 2021 @ 03:39 GMT
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Weekly Focus: Will Trump Step Up the Trade War?

Market Movers ahead

  • US President Trump to possibly announce US tariffs on an additional USD200bn of Chinese imports next week. Also CPI data will be released (Thu), where we expect 2.3%
  • Emerging markets will continue to be in focus, in particular the Turkish central bank meeting where we expect a 300bp hike on the back of the weaker currency and looming inflation pressure.
  • Euro area wage growth for Q2 (Fri) will give an indication of the strength of the underlying trend in inflation. Further, the ECB meeting on Thursday is not expected to carry new policy signals and mostly it’s a meeting for the feinschmeckers.
  • In the UK, the monthly GDP figure for July will give a first indication on how Q3 have fared. We expect a 0.1-0.2% growth (implying 0.3-0.4% q/q). Also, BoE meets on Thursday in a rather uneventful meeting with no updated projections and no press conference.

Global macro and market themes

  • Trump is struggling with only two months before the midterm elections.
  • European indicators are stabilising.

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