Mon, Apr 19, 2021 @ 15:38 GMT
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Gold Got Dumped on Vaccine Hopes and Removal of Election Overhang

Pfizer coronavirus vaccine news has sharply lifted market sentiment. As the positive news raised hopes that the pandemic will soon be under control and global economy will be back on track, gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset, dived. The benchmark Comex contract slumped almost US$100/oz to settle at US$1853.2/oz....

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Parsing Economic Data while Awaiting Election Results

U.S. Review Parsing Economic Data while Awaiting Election Results As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states. Total payrolls rose by 638K in October. Growth continues to...

The Weekly Bottom Line: What a Year this Week Has Been

U.S. Highlights Four days of vote counting has not yet produced a clear winner in the presidential election, with the Senate in a tight race and the House won by Democrats. There was no change to the policy announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but policy makers...

Week Ahead: A Joe Biden Presidency? Return of Brexit and Coronavirus to the Headlines

With the lack of economic data this week, expect US Presidential drama to be in play this week. As of Friday afternoon, it appears that most media outlets are ready to call Joe Biden the 46th President of the United States.  However, don’t expect current President Donald Trump to go...

Joe Biden Presidency Almost a Certainty- US Dollar Levels to Watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

US Dollar pairs may still see some volatility ahead as the election winner is announced and results are contested. As reports are now suggesting that Pennsylvania and Georgia have flipped from Trump-leading to Biden-leading, it’s becoming more and more apparent that Joe Biden will win the Presidential Election.  With the...

Week Ahead – The Calm after the US Election Storm

It’s a relatively quiet week coming up for global markets as the election dust settles. The main event will be the RBNZ policy meeting, though frankly, the real driver for most currencies and stocks may be the ‘aftershock’ effects of the election. There’s also a slew of economic data,...

Post-Election Rally Eases As Biden Advances In Swing States

White House race remains too close to call but Biden win becoming more likely Equity rally cools as markets give Washington gridlock a thumbs up Dollar steadies with Treasury yields as Fed keeps policy on hold NFP up next but US election and record virus cases to remain...

Market Rally To Pause On Election Fatigue?

It has been a momentous week defined by anticipation, tension and drama around the US presidential election. The outcome of this historic election remains on a knife-edge, with Donald Trump and Democrat challenger Joe Biden going toe to toe in key swing states. Investors across the globe are likely to...

US Equities Surge On Election Day, Oil Prices Recover

Wall Street surged on Wednesday to extend its rally as investors are closely watching the counting of US election votes, with mail-in ballots being more complicated to count. Democrat candidate Joe Biden is closer to win with his 264 electoral college votes versus Trump’s 214 as of Thursday morning...

Markets Will Continue To Keep An Eye At The US Election Outcome

Markets Congress, as it was/is unlikely for the Democratic party to break the Republican majority in the Senate. This would impede the new administration to develop a coherent policy. The reaction of equity markets was remarkable. An initial risk-off was soon reversed. Equity investors apparently felt comfortable with some kind...

Still Waiting

Market movers today The US election is still not settled and we may have to wait until tonight to have a clearer result. By then we should have outcomes from Nevada and Arizona. If Joe Biden keeps his narrow lead in the two states, he is set to become the...

Stocks Surge on US Elections, Dollar and Yen Weak But No Follow Through Selling Yet

Movements in the forex markets in reaction to the US elections were relatively indecisive, comparing to the strong risk-on moves in the stocks. There is no clear follow through selling in Dollar and Yen so far, while commodity currencies are struggling to extend gains. Focuses will now turn to...

What We Know About the US Election So Far

Votes continue to be counted in the US and the outcome hangs on a knife’s edge. It is so close that the next President will be decided by Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump is currently leading, though that could change as more mail-in ballots are tallied. What seems...

Bye Bye Blue Wave, Dollar Roars Back, Oil’s Choppy Outlook, Gold Steady

The polls got it wrong. Wall Street hoped for election certainty and what they will end up getting over the next couple days is recounts and lawsuits. This process will be dragged out as many states have different rules for mail-in ballots, audits, and recounts. The courts will be...

No Clear Winner Yet Except For The Nasdaq

Biden has claimed victory, Trump has claimed victory but counting continues in the key swing states. The reality is the US election remains up in the air. At the time of writing Joe Biden has 238 vs Trump’s 213 but the final result hangs on the key swing states and...

A Quite Remarkable Night!

Not a great night for the pollsters and arguably the worst possible outcome for both the markets and the prospect of a peaceful outcome. While it was expected that early counting would favour Trump, the president has massively outperformed what the pollsters predicted and it seems his confidence in recent...

Dollar Firms, Stocks Rattled As US Election Too Close To Call

Anxious wait for election outcome as race much tighter than anticipated Dollar and yen creep higher as election uncertainty mounts Stocks steady until Trump threatens to block mail-in ballot counting Trump closes in on Biden; might be a long wait The race for the White House is proving tighter than...

US Elections: Bye Bye ‘Blue Wave’?

It's still too early to make a decisive call on the overall elections, but markets appear to be paring back hopes for the so-called 'blue wave'. Expectations of a landslide victory for the Democrats, priced into US equities in the first two trading days of the week, and indeed over...

Flying Too Close To The Sun

It would appear that Jack (Icarus) Ma did just that with the Chinese Government and banking regulators last night, as Ant Financial’s IPO was pulled in Shanghai and Hong Kong. China’s government appears to disagree with Mr Ma’s assertion the Ant Financial is a tech company and not a...

US Dollar Sinks As US Election Results Stream-In

The US dollar is up sharply as the market reacts to the streaming results from the United States. The dollar index is up by more than 0.90%, which is a sign that the market is getting cautious over the results. Similarly, equities have erased some of yesterday’s gains, with...

Too Close To Call

Market movers today Besides digesting the US election results, we get PMI services indices across the world including the first release in Sweden, Italy, Spain as well as ISM non-manufacturing in the US. In the US, we also get the ADP jobs report for October, which, however, is not considered a...

Asia Morning: U.S. Stocks Gain Big On Election Day

On Tuesday - the presidential election day - U.S. stocks posted strong gains for the second session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 555 points (+2.06%) to 27480, the S&P 500 rose 58 points (+1.78%) to 3369, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 195 points (+1.76%) to 11279. Dow Jones...

Fed Meeting and NFP Eyed as Markets Digest Election

It is the mother of all weeks for the dollar and stock markets. In the aftermath of the US election, traders will have to digest a Fed meeting at 19:00 GMT Thursday and the latest US employment report at 13:30 GMT Friday. The election outcome will overshadow everything else,...

Investors Full of Optimism

Election day has finally arrived and investors are in no way put off at the prospect of the volatility surges you would expect will accompany it. Investors would be forgiven for taking to the sidelines on a day like this but what we're seeing is far from it. Europe is...

Dollar Slips, Stocks Rally As World Awaits Next US President

Few signs of market jitters on Election Day despite uncertainty about outcome Strong manufacturing data help ease virus fears, stocks bounce back Dollar retreats from highs, aussie shrugs off rate cut to turn higher Biden still in the lead, Trump talks legal action Americans go to the polls today to...

Will Trump Shock The World Again

Nearly four years ago, Donald Trump shocked the world by winning the US presidential election, pulling off one of the biggest political upsets in American history. With polling stations opening in a few hours’ time, the lingering question is whether history will repeat itself with Trump catching markets off-guard once...

Are We There Yet?

All eyes on the US election The answer is almost! The most divisive election in Western democratic history commences today as those Americans who haven’t voted head to the polls. Results will start flowing in through the morning tomorrow in Asia, which should make for a friskier than usual session....

US Equities Bullish Ahead Of Election Day

Wall Street closed higher on Monday, with investors waiting for the US election scheduled for Tuesday. The election will definitely cause major swings until at least the end of this week. Bears dominated September and October, and it remains to be seen if the election result would support a...

The Countdown The US Election Outcome Will Continue

Markets Investor sentiment changed for the better after Friday's (end of month?) risk-off repositioning even as plenty of event risk is still ahead later this week with the outcome of the US elections, the Fed policy decision and key US data to be released. However, the risk-rebound (or should we...

Election Day

Market movers today Today's key event is the US election, where our base case remains a Democratic clean sweep. One of the key states to follow is Florida that is expected to deliver a result early Wednesday morning as it has already started to count mail votes. Trump cannot win...