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Election

The Countdown The US Election Outcome Will Continue

Markets Investor sentiment changed for the better after Friday's (end of month?) risk-off repositioning even as plenty of event risk is still ahead later this week with the outcome of the US elections, the Fed policy decision and key US data to be released. However, the risk-rebound (or should we...

Election Day

Market movers today Today's key event is the US election, where our base case remains a Democratic clean sweep. One of the key states to follow is Florida that is expected to deliver a result early Wednesday morning as it has already started to count mail votes. Trump cannot win...

US Stocks Rise Ahead Of Today’s USD Election

US stocks are rising in the futures market ahead of the US election. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures are up by almost 1%. The market is optimistic that, regardless of who wins the election, they will get clarity about US policies. They also hope that they will...

Equity Market Rebound Unlikely To Hold

Ahead of US elections, surging virus cases and in light of a fresh lockdown in England, you would have thought the markets would be lower today. Well, that’s how things started with stock index futures gapping lower overnight, crude oil dropping 4% and the pound slipping to its lowest...

Investors Take Shelter Ahead Of Election

Wall Street braces for election uncertainty A mixed day for Europe, while Wall Street is heading for its worst week since March as election day nears. The downside risks that have been evident in these markets for weeks are slowly materializing and the next big uncertainty – the US election –...

Buckle Up For A Wild Market Ride

Last week was a terrible one for risk assets with global and US equities suffering the worst selloff since the March meltdown. Multiple factors deterred investors from taking risk including renewed lockdowns across several nations in Europe, growing fears of a double-dip recession and most importantly, the chances of...

Wall Street Is Cautiously Recovering Ahead Of Election Day

Wall Street futures recover slightly at the start of the European session on Monday, after experiencing the biggest weekly loss since March. Still, the volatility is high, and the American benchmark indexes can continue their downtrend by the end of the US session. Investors are waiting for Election Day...

Key Levels to Watch as US Presidential Election Looms

Global equities tumbled notably last week, partly as coronavirus spread was hitting new record highs. Also of the same importance, US investor had lightened up their positions in preparation for the Presidential elections. Yen and Dollar surged broadly to end as the strongest one. Euro was the worst performing,...

Week Ahead: US Elections are Finally Here!

The major polls have Joe Biden in the lead by various amounts, but Wall Street remembers! After months of waiting (some people have been waiting years), the US Presidential Election will take place this Tuesday.  The major polls have Joe Biden in the lead by various amounts, but Wall Street...

Week Ahead – US Election, Three Central Banks, and Nonfarm Payrolls

It is probably the busiest week ever for markets. The US presidential election will eclipse everything else, but there are several other crucial events like a Fed meeting and nonfarm payrolls to follow the main dish. The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide as...

Weekly Focus – Trump or Biden? The Most Important Thing is a Clean Sweep

This week we saw a big risk sell-off driven (among other things) by the worsening COVID-19 situation in the US and Europe. In Europe, new cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue to rise and in some countries hospitalisations are approaching the levels in spring. Politicians have reacted by tightening restrictions...

Stocks Tank, Yen Shines Amid Lockdown Blues, ECB Coming Up

Panic selling in equities as France and Germany announce new virus-fighting measures Yen and dollar surge amid the turmoil, commodity FX and gold hammered Markets have stabilized on Thursday, but the calm seems fragile Today: ECB policy decision, German inflation, US third-quarter GDP Equities fall apart, haven currencies shine Global...

US Open – Justice Barrett, Earnings (HSBC, BP, Pfizer, Merck), CNY, Oil Edges Higher, Gold A Touch Softer

European stocks weakened, while US stocks rallied, fed by investor optimism that the presidential election would deliver a ‘blue wave’ and provide massive stimulus on coronavirus relief, infrastructure spending and expanded health benefits. Earnings results in Europe have been mixed but helped stocks the major bourses pare some losses....

Investors Bracing For Busy Week Ahead

With eight days remaining to the US presidential election, global equity markets have kicked off the week on the back foot. Fiscal stimulus had been the dominant topic over the past few days and the chances of passing any kind of package ahead of next week is declining, while...

Week Ahead: “Hopeful” Doesn’t Cut It Anymore

The word “Hopeful” has been thrown around a lot over the last week.  Brexit negotiators are hopeful a trade deal will get done.  US officials working on the fiscal stimulus package are hopeful a deal can be reached before the election. Markets are done with talk and want to...

Week Ahead – ECB, BoC, and BoJ Serve as Appetizers for US Election

With less than two weeks to go until the US election, markets are on red alert as opinion polls in key battleground states have tightened. In the meantime, there are three central bank meetings and a ton of data to keep things exciting. The ECB could steal the show...

Final Debate Recap: Top Three Trading Takeaways from a More Civil Conversation

After the first debate, which we characterized as “chaotic, disorienting, and frankly depressing” in our recap article, expectations were exceptionally low heading into last night’s second and final debate. Thankfully, the debate was able to exceed those low expectations, with moderator Kristen Welker’s ability to mute the candidates’ mics...

Chaotic Markets With Many Themes Going On

It's a rather chaotic week with many themes developing. The first October surprise of US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infects seemed to have fade as he's back in election campaign. Just as challenger Joe Biden appeared to be widening lead, according to mainstream polls, another October surprise surfaced with...

Week Ahead: Brexit Negotiations Off But Talks On?

Surprisingly, not a lot has changed over the last week in terms of headline events!  Brexit “talks” seem to be happening this week, though Boris Johnson made sobering comments that the UK should get ready for a no-deal Brexit.  However, that may be the least of the UK’s and...

The Forex Market and Presidential Terms

How has the forex market performed around different US Presidential terms? Read on to discover what history can tell us about the Forex market and the President. (1) The US Dollar and the President’s Party At first, many traders are surprised to learn that there is rarely a direct, straightforward relationship...

Four Weeks Out: The State of the 2020 US Presidential Race and Market Implications

It’s been more than three months since our last “State of the 2020 US President Race” report, and while we’ve seen countless massive storylines (ongoing protests across the country, another 100k Americans dying from COVID-19, the biggest quarterly decline in GDP in more than 70 years, the death of...

More Risk Aversion Likely after First October Surprise

Investors could have been anticipating an October surprise. But none could have expected it to come that early, with US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infections. The world has been in historically high level of uncertainty ever since the virus outbreak in Wuhan of China half a year ago. And...

Weekly Focus – Focus on COVID-19 Spreading and Chinese PMI

Risk sentiment has been relatively constructive this week, as data has generally been on the positive side amid positive tones of a potential new US fiscal stimuli package. European rates continue to be range bound in a tight range and we expect Bunds to stay in a -60bp to...

Three Takeaways for Traders from a Debacle of a US Presidential Debate

Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the legitimacy of the election regardless of the outcome has stoked fears of a contentious legal battle and/or civil unrest over the result of the election. When the biggest takeaway from a first debate is that perhaps we shouldn’t have any more debates (or...

US Election: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly for Markets

With almost one month to go until the presidential election, investors are increasingly focused on how the outcome will impact financial markets. The short answer is that there is no automatic rule for how the dollar and equity markets will react to a Trump or Biden win – it...

Debate Time

Stock markets are struggling to capitlize on their strong start to the week, with Europe a mixed bag and US futures relatively flat ahead of the open. We're closing in on month and quarter end, which will likely have an impact on trading - the usual portfolio rebalancing that gets...

Week Ahead: US Presidential Debate and Non-Farm Payrolls

Central Bank speakers were out in full force last week talking about monetary policy stimulus and how they all have plenty of room to ease, if needed.  US/China relations continue to be threatened, this time as China steps up its agitation in Taiwan and Trump’s threat to hold China...

2020 US Election: Trump’s Policies And Potential Market Impact

With less than two months to go until the 2020 US presidential election, the two major candidates' economic policies are less developed than usual, leaving traders to “read between the lines” of public speeches and forecast priorities based on historical party trends. While we expect to garner more details...

Key 2020 US Election Dates and Markets to Watch

See a schedule of key dates to watch around the 2020 US election and the potential markets to watch throughout the election! When is the US election? All 50 states and Washington DC will head to the polls on Tuesday, 3 November 2020. Citizens will be voting across six different timezones,...

Stock Market Performance Since The Last US Election

(1) History reveals unique trends about the stock market performance during presidential election years and beyond. According to the widely-followed “Presidential Election Cycle” the stock market generally underperforms in the first half of a US President’s 4-year term and performs best in the second half of the term. Why do we...