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US Elections: A Simple Guide and Market Implications

The 3rd of November is the day that American citizens will decide who will lead their country for the next four years. Opinion polls suggest Biden will win, but Trump is quickly closing that polling gap in key battleground states and betting markets imply that the race is too...

What Happens to Interest Rates During an Election Year?

As the US presidential election approaches, creating the usual economic uncertainty, the country is also in the throes of an unprecedented pandemic. With all this happening at once, readers must be wondering: What will happen to interest rates during this election year? Interest Rates during Presidential Election Years Election years often...

Oil Market and Gas Price History by President

When it comes to the market, do past presidents provide precedent? We weigh in on the oil market and gas price history by President. Oil & gas: Do past presidents provide precedent? As arguably the planet’s most important commodity, the price of oil has downstream impacts for everything from interest rates...

The Forex Market and Presidential Terms

How has the forex market performed around different US Presidential terms? Read on to discover what history can tell us about the Forex market and the President. (1) The US Dollar and the President’s Party At first, many traders are surprised to learn that there is rarely a direct, straightforward relationship...

Gold Prices after the US Election

This year, gold prices have surged to record highs not seen since September 2011. This has left many investors wondering whether or not to buy the yellow metal. As Election Day approaches, uncertainty around the path of the pandemic (and associated government stimulus programs) continues to increase the value...

The Future of the US Dollar After the 2020 Election

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020 marks one of the more memorable Election Day contests in U.S. history. Featuring an outspoken incumbent POTUS, a former Vice President, and an unprecedented series of geopolitical and social events, Election Day 2020 will have a profound influence on financial markets around the world. Among...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: A Glimpse of the Rebound that Might Have Been

U.S. Review A Glimpse of the Rebound that Might Have Been Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery....

Jobless Claims Continue to Head in Right Direction, Biden’s Economic Plan, Oil Anchored, Gold Shines

Risk appetite is struggling as the coronavirus spread is still not under control in most parts of the world and as geopolitical tensions between China and the West intensify. Australia’s decision to suspend the extradition treaty with Hong Kong in response to their new security law shows the US...

UK Stimulus, Lagarde Reiterates Urgency to Act, Biden vs Trump, Oil Rebound Ends, Gold Steadies

US stock futures are poised for a lower open as the coronavirus spread in the US tops 1,000, a 1-mile containment zone was setup just outside of New York city, and as expectations grow for further bans of community gatherings. The virus spread is intensifying in Europe and the...

Weekly Focus: It’s All About COVID-19: Turning to a U-Shaped Recovery

As the COVID-19 virus is spreading in Europe and has landed in the US, the financial markets have reacted quite forcefully and as such called for G7 central bank and officials to act as a circuit breaker. COVID-19 is set to continue being the overall theme in markets as...

G7 Punt, Super Tuesday, OPEC Pressure, Gold Rally, LATAM Update

Best rally for the S&P in last 14 months was propelled on high hopes that financial markets were headed for another cycle of easing. Today, we did not get a full package announced, just another reiteration the world’s largest central banks will use all appropriate policy tools to mitigate...

How Coronavirus Affects Forex And Stock Market

The new decade started with an unexpected global problem – the coronavirus. Late 2019 saw the first cases in China, and the authorities quickly locked down cities with millions of people. Wuhan, a major Chinese city, became known as the birthplace of this virus that quickly spread across the...

Trump Hates the Strong Dollar, but Buck Bulls LOVE Him

In a classic “best house in a bad global neighborhood” trade, the US dollar is off to its best start to a year since 2015, rising against each of its major rivals year-to-date. While (relatively) strong economic data and safe haven demand amidst the coronavirus outbreak have certainly played...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Mildly Easing Momentum as Coronavirus Hits

U.S. Review Overarching Economic Themes Remain in Place Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months. The industrial sector remains challenged, however, as total production declined...

How Long Until US Stocks ‘Feel the Bern’?

The Democratic primary race, which will decide who will square off against President Trump at the November presidential election, has kicked off. The field of candidates remains crowded and the outcome uncertain, though national polls increasingly suggest that Senator Bernie Sanders could emerge as the winner. Markets have been...

The 2020 Election and the Economy: Part III

Executive Summary In part I of our series on the 2020 election and the U.S. economy, we examined some of the key facts about the election as it currently stands. In part II, we tackled where the candidates stand on some of the major economic policy issues. In this report,...

The Election is Over, But Brexit is Not

Executive Summary The U.K. Conservative Party won yesterday's general election in a landslide, paving the way for approval of the withdrawal agreement allowing the U.K. to leave the E.U. with a deal in place by January 31, 2020. This would merely mark the end of Brexit "phase one," however,...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Let’s Make a Deal, or Three

U.S. Review OK Monty, Let's Go With Door# 1, Door #2 AND Door #3 Lawmakers and the administration made breakthroughs this week on deals to avoid the Dec. 15 tariffs, likely pass the USMCA and avert a government shutdown next week. The USTR confirmed that Sunday's tariffs will not go...

Conservatives Gains Clear Mandate For Brexit

Unless you are living under a rock, you have heard of the convincing victory of the conservative party in the UK election. While the count is not final, Boris Johnson Conservative has secured 364 out of 650 seats (the majority of 78) significantly lowering uncertainty. With the Conservative, party...

British Election Results And Focus On Growth

Boris Johnson's conservative party won an absolute majority in the British Parliament. There will be no second referendum on Brexit, and after years of political chaos, investors have a clearer picture of the future. The leader of Tory will withdraw Britain from the EU in the near future. It...

Sterling Soars Following Boris Johnson’s Landslide Election Win

US stocks rose sharply after Donald Trump sent a tweet about a potential trade deal. In the tweet, Trump said that the US was getting very close to a big deal with China. The tweet came at a time when the market was worried that the US would add...

Markets in Ecstasy on UK Election and US-China Trade Deal

Sterling strengthens broadly today as an important hurdle for Brexit is cleared with Conservative's landslide victory in the UK election. Yen and Swiss Franc are broadly pressured on return of risk appetite, helped also by completion of US-China trade deal phase one. Over the week, the Pound is the...

Conservatives Crush Labour In A Landslide Victory

Like him or loathe him, Boris Johnson is on track for the biggest election win since Margaret Thatcher, which is some feat given how polarised the Brexit debate has always been. British Pound traded broadly higher, with six out of the seven GBP pairs rallying over 2% in a matter...

UK Election Review: Big Conservative Victory Means The End Of The Beginning Of Brexit

Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a big victory at yesterday's general elections with an estimated 360 seats versus the 326 needed for a majority. The election was a big defeat for both Labour and the LibDems and Jeremy Corbyn has stepped down as party leader and Jo Swinson lost...

Sterling surges as Conservative on track to massive election victory

Sterling strengthens broadly as exit poll suggested that Conservative Party is on course for a thumping 86-seat majority after the landslide win in the elections. Boris Johnson is expected to push his Brexit deal through the parliament, with a second reading before Christmas. UK would then be on track...

It’s A Double Whammy For Risk Appetite On Trade And UK Elections

It's been a positive week for trade sentiment. Earlier in the week, the USMCA was signed which paves the way for US, Canada and Mexico to move forward on trade. And during the US session, President Trump teased traders with hope of a US -China trade deal by tweeting...

Conservatives On Course For Massive Majority

Sterling soars as Conservatives head for a majority The pound is soaring after the exit polls showed the Conservatives winning a strong majority in the 2019 general election. This has been a bitterly fought election that has once again divided the nation but perhaps not as much as it could have....

Hurry Up And Wait

As you know, we are at the threshold of two major events for trading dynamics throughout the world: the UK Election and the possible US-China Trade deal Phase One agreement. The polls in the UK don’t close until 10:00pm local time today, however latest polls (earlier today) have indicated that...

Elections And Interest Rates: What Will Have A Decisive Impact On The Markets?

This morning Britain started voting. The results of the General Elections are important not only in the United Kingdom but around the world. Markets want to know who will win and how the "endless Brexit" story ends. The results of the vote will show whether Boris Johnson will receive...

EUR Focuses On ECB’s Interest Rate Decision…

Today during the late European session (12:45, GMT), the ECB will be releasing its interest rate decision and holding a press conference later on (13:30 GMT). The event is to gain additional interest as the meeting is to be the first with Christine Lagarde at ECB's helm. The market...