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Fed Refrained from Giving Any Hint about QE Tapering

The Fed voted unanimously to leave the Fed funds rate target at 0-0.25%. It also decided to keep the asset purchases at US$120B per month. As expected, the Fed upgraded the economic assessments but continued to warn of downside risks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the press conference noted...

US Growth and Fed’s Policy Outlook to Lift Yields Again, Lending Support to USD

Weakness of US dollar in most of April has been mainly driven by falling Treasury yields. We believe US’ strong economic growth in coming quarters, market expectations of Fed funds rate hike and the Fed’s plan to taper QE would again lift Treasury yields, lending support to the greenback....

FOMC Preview – Fed to Deliver Upbeat Message about Economy while Affirming Substantial Progress is Needed to Taper QE

We expect the Fed to turn more upbeat over the economic outlook at this week’s meeting. Yet, the economic improvement is not yet strong enough for any change in the monetary policy measures. As such, the Fed would leave the Fed funds rate target at 0-0.25%. On QE, the...

Fed Upbeat on Recovery, while Pledged to Maintain Stimulus Until Substantial Progress is Seen On Economy

The FOMC minutes for the March meeting revealed that members turned more optimistic over the economic outlook. They were more hopeful of continuous improvement in light of the "significant declines in the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over the intermeeting period as well as a pickup...

FOMC Review – Fed Revised Economic Projections Significantly Higher, while Pledged to Keep QE Size Unchanged Until Actual Progress is Seen in Economy

The staff significantly upgraded economic projections. While the policy rate will unlikely change before 2024, the median dot plot reveals that more members are now projecting rate hikes in coming two years. As widely anticipated, the Fed left all monetary policy measures unchanged: The size of asset purchases stays...

FOMC Preview – Expect to See Upgrade in GDP Growth Projections

The focus of this week's FOMC meeting is how the Fed would respond to the rising Treasury yields and the rapid improvement in the economic conditions. We expect policymakers to upgrade the GDP growth forecasts and attribute rising yields to improvement economic confidence. Yet, the tone should remain cautious....

Fed Indicated that QE Tapering is Premature and Bar to Adjust Policy is High

The December FOMC meeting contained little news. However, Chair Powell sent a clear indication that tapering is “premature” for the time being and that the bar to adjust the monetary policy is higher. The Fed left all measures unchanged at the meeting. The Fed funds rate stays at 0-0.25%...

FOMC Preview – Cautious about Economic Weakness but Fiscal Stimulus should lend Support

The FOMC meeting in the coming week will not bring any change in the monetary policy. Economic activities have moderated since the December meeting, while resurgence in the coronavirus cases could hurt economic activities more seriously than previously expected. Yet, roll-out of more fiscal stimulus and positive vaccination progress...

US Dollar to Weaken Further Gradually in 2021

The DXY index will likely record a -6% fall in 2020, the first decline in 3 years. Although US economic recovery should lend support to the dollar, exceptionally accommodative monetary policy, widening deficit (exacerbated by the new round of fiscal stimulus) and reduced demand for safe-haven asset should keep...

Gold’s Rally Supported by US Fiscal Package and Fed’s Pledge to Keep Stimulus Unchanged after 2% Inflation Exceeded

Gold’s rebound late November has continued for a third week. Besides bargain hunting, Fed’s pledge to keep the policy rate low and strengthening in the forward guidance in QE, as well as the latest fiscal package approved by the Congress are the key driving forces supporting the yellow metal. The...

Fed Pledged to Continue QE Until “Substantial Progress” Seen in Employment and Inflation

The major changes in the December were forward guidance in the asset purchase program (QE) as well as upgrades in economic forecasts. The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The updated median dot plot suggests that no rate hike is...

FOMC Preview – Fed to Update Forward Guidance on QE

At the last meeting of the year, we expect the Fed to be more cautious about the near-term outlook, while more optimistic over the longer-term. The focus of the meeting will be on the adjustment of the forward guidance about the asset purchase program. It will be a qualitative,...

FOMC Minutes: Fed Seriously Considered Adjusting QE

The minutes for the FOMC meeting in November shows that policymakers were cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery and the impacts of the monetary policy tools on the economic outlook. As negative interest rate has been ruled out, the Fed's future policy tool is dependent on asset purchases (QE)....

Fed Discussed Options to Adjust QE, More Details Probably Out Next Month

As widely anticipated, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The decisions were made unanimously. The members acknowledged that economic recovery remained under way. Yet, they warned of the downside risks to growth amidst the huge uncertainty of the coronavirus...

FOMC Preview – Fed to Discuss Asset Purchases Arrangement as Balance Sheet Surpasses US$ 7 Trillion

We do not expect any change in the monetary policy at the November meeting. That is, the Fed should leave the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged at US$120B/month. The central bank will maintain a dovish stance, warning that risks to growth are skewed...

Fed Shifted to Outcome-Based Forward Guidance, Upgraded Economic Projections

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged in September. There are substantial changes in the policy statement, reflecting the formal adoption of average inflation targeting. Updated economic projections revealed a more optimistic outlook for this year through to 2022. The Fed...

FOMC Preview – Policy Incorporating Average Inflation Targeting. New Economic Forecasts and Dot Plots Awaited

After announcing to adopt a new monetary policy framework at Jackson Hole symposium weeks ago, the focus of the upcoming FOMC meeting is on the more clarification of average inflation targeting, the members’ view on the economic outlook (to be revealed in the policy statement and the staff economic...

Powell Announced Dovish Shift to Fed’s Monetary Policy, Targeting Averaging Inflation and shortfall of Maximum Employment

At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Powell briefed the market on the results of the Fed's strategic review of its monetary policy strategy. Powell announced the new approach to deal with price stability and maximum employment, the dual mandate of the Fed monetary policy. The Fed will...

Factors Supporting Gold Price Remain as ETFs Add Holdings and Low Yields Persist

Gold price has corrected about -7% over the past weeks, after making a record high of US$ 2060/oz earlier in the month. While further weakness appears likely, we remain bullish on the yellow metal as factors driving its price higher, e.g. low yields, expansionary monetary policy, etc, remain intact....

FOMC Minutes Revealed Rigorous Debate over Alternative Monetary Policy Tools

The FOMC minutes for the July meeting revealed that the members remained concerned about the outlook of economic recovery. They had discussed a number of tools for further easing, including forward guidance, asset purchases, and yield curve targets. Meanwhile, the members again stressed that fiscal support is particularly important...

Gold Breaks US$2000/oz as US dollar Loses Credibility as Reserve Currency

Breaking yet another new record, gold price has surpassed psychological level US$2000/oz. As we mentioned in last week’s report, the key drivers for the rally are low real yields and rising inflation expectations. Weakness is US dollar is another driver for the yellow metal's strength. However, the negative correlation...

Dovish Fed Warned that Recovery Path Dependent on Virus, Pledged to Add More Stimulus when Needed

The Fed sent a more dovish message at the July meeting, although the monetary policy, as well as the accompanying statement, stayed largely unchanged. Despite improvement of data flow, the members warned that the pace of recovery is depending on the developments of coronavirus pandemic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell...

Gold Price Approaches US$2,000/oz amidst Low Real Yields, Rising Inflation Expectations and Geopolitical Tensions

Gold's rally has accelerated with the front-month Comex contract making new highs for two consecutive dates. We believe the recent relentless rally of the yellow metal is driven by a number of factors: low real rates, expectations of higher inflation as a result of ultra expansionary monetary policy and...

FOMC Preview – Preparing for Changes in Monetary Policy

The upcoming FOMC meeting aims at preparing the market for changes in the monetary policy in September. At the meeting this week, the Fed will keep its policy measures unchanged at this week’s meeting, i.e., the Fed funds rate will stay at 0-0.25%, while asset purchases (QE) will be...

HKD Supported by Low US Yield and Seasonal Factors, Despite Huge Political Uncertainty Ahead

Recent strength of HKD has triggered the territory’s de facto central bank, HKMA, to defend the currency system. The key reasons for strong HKD are broad-based USD weakness, HIBOR-LIBOR spread, semiannual settlement and IPO activities in Hong Kong. Policy uncertainty has taken a backseat as the US government is...

FOMC Signals to Increase Asset Purchases in Coming Months

As expected, FOMC left its monetary policy measures unchanged and downgraded the macroeconomic outlook. The members also project that the policy rate will stay unchanged through 2020. The accompanying statement showed few changes. Yet, the pledge to increase purchases by at least their current rate signals that the central...

FOMC Minutes Sent Dovish Message about Recovery, Preparing to Adjust QE and Forward Guidance

The FOMC minutes for the April meeting revealed that the members were very much concerned about the job market and inflation outlook as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. While leaving the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, the members also maintained QE. The minutes revealed that “several” members...

Fed Markedly Downgraded Economic Assessments on Sharp Decline in Activities and Surge in Unemployment

While maintaining all monetary policy measures unchanged in April, FOMC sent a more negative message about the economy. The members noted the sharp deterioration in economic activities and a jump in unemployment, cautioning that the negative impacts could prolong in the medium term. The Fed pledged to maintain the...

Uncontrollable Coronavirus Spread Could Force the Fed to Resume Easing

The FOMC minutes for the January meeting revealed that policymakers remained content about the domestic growth outlook. However, they acknowledged the growing uncertainty emerged from the coronavirus outbreak. This could present significant downside risks to global growth. The situation of the epidemic has deteriorated significantly since the last meeting....

FOMC to Stay Put this Week

It is widely expected that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% at the January meeting. Meanwhile, we believe the accompanying statement will contain only minor change from the one in December. Major economic data will be released days after the FOMC meeting. Yet, the Fed...