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In today’s Asian session, US stock index futures reversed early losses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures initially fell 0.4% and 0.3% following cautious outlooks from Apple and Amazon despite upbeat Q1 earnings. However, both rebounded to post intraday gains of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, after China’s Commerce Ministry announced it is evaluating the possibility of trade talks with the US.

The Hong Kong stock market re-opened today after its Labour Day break on a jovial mood, where the Hang Seng Index rallied by 1.6% to hit nearly a one-month high on the backdrop of easing US-China trade tensions.

Separately, Japan concluded its second round of trade talks with the US. Economy Minister Akazawa declined to comment on specifics, including China or exchange rates, and noted the next meeting is planned for after mid-May. The Nikkei 225 added 1.1% in early trade and is poised for a seventh straight session of gains.

The US dollar rebounded, led by a sharp decline in the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan held rates steady but slashed its fiscal year growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.1%, citing trade tariff uncertainty. The yen tumbled 1.6% to 145.40 per dollar on 1 May, its steepest drop this year. USD/JPY extended gains slightly today, rising to an intraday high of 145.93 in the Asian early session, with the 50-day moving average acting as an intermediate resistance at around 147.05.

Gold (XAU/USD) fell for a third straight session, shedding 1.5% to a near two-week low of $3,201 as easing US-China tensions dampened safe haven demand. However, it has since rebounded 0.5% in early Asian trading to $3,254, following a retest of its 20-day moving average, as markets await key US jobs data due later today.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asian mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – Potential bullish reversal for Gold (XAU/USD) at 20-day MA

Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 May 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The 8% decline seen in the price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) since its current all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025 has reached its 20-day moving average.

In addition, the downside momentum of the last three sessions has started to show signs of easing as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, where it has flashed out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region in yesterday’s 1 May European session coupled with a bullish breakout above its 50 level in today’s first half of the Asian session.

Watch the US$3,194/3,162 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the US$3,315 near-term resistance may see the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,370 and US$3,420 in the first step.

However, failure to hold above at US$3,162 invalidates the short-term recovery scenario for a potential multi-week corrective decline sequence to unfold that may expose the next intermediate support at US$3,086/3,055 (also the 50-day moving average).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.05; (P) 190.66; (R1) 191.33; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 195.59 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole choppy decline from 199.79 has completed at 184.35. Rise from 180.00 could then be ready to resume through 199.79. For now, break of 189.97 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.52; (P) 163.49; (R1) 165.18; More...

EUR/JPY's break of 164.16 indicates resumption of whole rise from 154.77. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 161.68 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8486; (P) 0.8498; (R1) 0.8517; More...

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8737 should still be in progress for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8451). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 0.8221 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish. On the upside, though, break of 0.8544 resistance will turn bias back to the upside fro retesting 0.8737.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7606; (P) 1.7680; (R1) 1.7760; More...

Outlook in EUR/AUD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750. On the upside, above 1.8014 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.8554 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 1.7750 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7414) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9330; (P) 0.9362; (R1) 0.9395; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 0.9218 is either a corrective move, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. Break of 0.9445 will resume the rebound towards 0.9660 resistance. However, on the downside, firm break of 0.9328 support will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1257; (P) 1.1299; (R1) 1.1332; More...

EUR/USD's corrective fall from 1.1572 could extend lower to 100% projection of 1.1572 to 1.1306 from 1.1424 at 1.1158. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to complete the correction. On the upside, break of 1.1424 will bring retest of 1.1572 high first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0792) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3244; (P) 1.3295; (R1) 1.3328; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 1.3232 support will indicate short term topping and rejection by 1.3433 key resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3012) and possibly below. On the upside, firm break of 1.3433 key resistance confirm larger up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could either be resuming the up trend, or the second leg of a consolidation pattern. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8248; (P) 0.8290; (R1) 0.8339; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 0.8333 will resume the rebound from 0.8038 short term bottom. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. On the downside, below 0.8196 minor support will bring retest of 0.8038. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8783) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.60; (P) 144.67; (R1) 146.46; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 139.87 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 139.87 to 144.02 from 141.96 at 146.11. But still, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12 holds. On the downside, below 144.02 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 141.96 will argue that the rebound has completed as a corrective move. Retest of 139.87 should then be seen next in this case.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.