Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3244; (P) 1.3295; (R1) 1.3328; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in range below 1.3442 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, firm break of 1.3232 support will indicate short term topping and rejection by 1.3433 key resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3012) and possibly below. On the upside, firm break of 1.3433 key resistance confirm larger up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could either be resuming the up trend, or the second leg of a consolidation pattern. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1257; (P) 1.1299; (R1) 1.1332; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 1.1265 will resume the correction from 1.1572 short term top. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to complete the correction. On the upside, break of 1.1424 will bring retest of 1.1572 high next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0792) holds.

Risk assets are rallying to end the week as investors take comfort in the stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll report. The data helped to offset recession concerns after surprise Q1 GDP contraction. While the GDP miss raised alarms, it was largely attributed to a surge in imports ahead of the April tariff changes, rather than a fundamental decline in domestic activity. Supporting that narrative, both the ISM Manufacturing survey and today labor data suggest that the early effects of tariff uncertainty may be more muted than initially feared.

Adding to the relief, there are tentative signs that trade negotiations, even with China, are inching forward. Beijing has acknowledged the possibility of returning to the table, though it reiterated that all unilateral US tariffs must be lifted. This narrative of progress, however incremental, has helped support equities and risk-sensitive assets.

In the currency markets, pro-risk currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi are outperforming today on improved global sentiment. Meanwhile, Dollar is under mild while Sterling and Loonie are also lagging. Euro finds modest support after a surprising acceleration in core inflation.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.94%. DAX is up 2.06%. CAC is up 1.83%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.049 at 4.449. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.049 at 2.496. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.04%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.74%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.33%. China was on holiday. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.013 to 1.262.

US NFP grows 177k in April, wage gains losing momentum

The US labor market delivered another month of solid job creation in April, with non-farm payrolls rising by 177k, beating forecast of 130k. However, the initial blowout March figure was revised down from 228k to 185k, tempering some of the headline strength.

Still, both readings came in above the 12-month average monthly gain of 152k, signaling continued resilience.

Unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, in line with expectations, while labor force participation ticked up slightly to 62.6%.

Yet, wage pressures appear to be softening. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% mom, below the 0.3% mom forecast, bringing the year-over-year growth rate to 3.8%.

Eurozone core CPI jumps to 2.7% as services inflation accelerates

Eurozone headline CPI held steady at 2.2% yoy in April, slightly above expectations of 2.1% yoy. CPI core, which excludes energy, food, alcohol & tobacco, surged sharply from 2.4% yoy to 2.7% yoy, surpassing the forecast of 2.5%.

The acceleration in services inflation to 3.9% from 3.5% drove much of the upside surprise, highlighting persistent domestic price pressures. Meanwhile, energy prices fell more steeply at -3.5%, and non-energy industrial goods inflation was stable at 0.6%.

Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.0, at risk if Chinese exports divert toward Europe

Eurozone manufacturing sector showed further signs of stabilization in April, with PMI Manufacturing Index finalized at 49.0, its highest reading in 32 months. Output growth was a standout, reaching a 37-month high at 51.5, reflecting a modest but encouraging improvement in activity.

Country-level data revealed a mixed picture, with Greece (53.2) and Ireland (53.0) leading the expansion, while Spain (48.1) and Austria (46.6) lagged behind. Notably, Germany (48.4) and France (48.2), two core economies, continued to show.

According to Cyrus de la Rubia at Hamburg Commercial Bank, the stabilization is somewhat unexpected given recent shocks, but optimism is holding up, aided by prospects of ECB rate cuts and the announced increase in EU defense spending.

Still, challenges remain. While manufacturers expanded margins in April, thanks to falling input costs and faster price hikes, this may not be sustainable. The risk of Chinese goods being redirected to Europe due to US tariffs could intensify competitive pressures, particularly on price.

Australian retail sales grow 0.3% mom in March, but volumes flat in Q1

Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% mom in March to AUD 37.28 billion, slightly below expectations of 0.4% growth.

According to the ABS, food-related spending, particularly in supermarkets and grocery stores, was the main contributor to the uptick, with food and miscellaneous retailing both rising 0.7%. Clothing-related sales also edged higher, but household goods retailing was flat.

However, the broader trend is subdued, with retail sales volumes—adjusted for inflation—essentially flat over Q1. ABS Head of Business Statistics Robert Ewing noted that the lack of growth reflects weaker household appetite for discretionary goods, following a boost in spending late last year due to heavy promotions.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1257; (P) 1.1299; (R1) 1.1332; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 1.1265 will resume the correction from 1.1572 short term top. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to complete the correction. On the upside, break of 1.1424 will bring retest of 1.1572 high next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0792) holds.

The US labor market delivered another month of solid job creation in April, with non-farm payrolls rising by 177k, beating forecast of 130k. However, the initial blowout March figure was revised down from 228k to 185k, tempering some of the headline strength.

Still, both readings came in above the 12-month average monthly gain of 152k, signaling continued resilience.

Unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, in line with expectations, while labor force participation ticked up slightly to 62.6%.

Yet, wage pressures appear to be softening. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% mom, below the 0.3% mom forecast, bringing the year-over-year growth rate to 3.8%.

Full US non-farm payrolls release here.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of Dollar Index DXY published in members area of the website. As our members know, DXY is forming a correction against the 103.56 peak. In the following text, we’ll explain the Elliott Wave analysis and outline the target areas.

DXY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.28.2025

The current view suggests that the US Dollar Index is correcting the cycle from the 103.56 peak.We count five waves in the rally from the low, indicating that we have completed only the first leg of a potential correction, labeled as wave ((a)) in black.

The market is currently forming wave ((b)), which could reach the 99.18–98.75 area.In this zone, we expect buyers to appear for a potential final push higher in wave ((c)), as proposed on the chart.

DXY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.28.2025

Dollar found buyers at 99.18–98.75 area as expected. It made decent rally that broke the previous peak ((a)) , confirming that the next leg up is in progress – ((c)). Dollar can see 100.97-102.26 area before sellers appear again.

The Australian dollar has posted considerable gains on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6417, up 0.55% on the day.

Australia's PPI rises but retail sales dip

Australia's Producer Price Index rose 0.9% in the first quarter, up from 0.8% in Q4 and edging above the market estimate of 0.8%. Annually, PPI remained at 3.7%, still the lowest level in three years.

Retail sales for March was a disappointment, with a gain of 0.3%. This followed a revised 0.8% in February and missed the market estimate of 0.4%. The weak report can partly be attributed to Cyclone Alfred, which caused damage of close to one billion dollars.

Retail sales were almost flat in the first quarter, reflecting consumer anxiety over the economy, as US tariffs have escalated global trade tensions.

Australia's core inflation rate dipped to 2.9% in the first quarter, the first time in three years that core CPI has been within the RBA's 1-3% target band. This is a significant milestone in the recovery and the fight against inflation.

The inflation report is good news for consumers and the markets have priced in a quarter-point cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at the May 20 meeting. The National Australia Bank is more dovish and is projecting a jumbo half-point cut.

US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall sharply

With US inflation largely under control, the US labor market is under close scrutiny. The Federal Reserve could deliver a rate cut as early as June if employment numbers deteriorate. The May nonfarm payrolls report is expected to come in at just 130 thousand, following a surprisingly strong April release of 228 thousand. A surprise reading above or below the forecast could have a strong impact on the US dollar in the North American session.

Investors will also be monitoring wage growth, which is expected to inch higher to 3.9% y/y from 3.8%.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6392 and is testing resistance at 0.6419. Above, there is resistance at 0.6453
• 0.6358 and 0.6331 are the next support levels

• AUD/USD extends sideways move within 0.6340-0.6448 area.
• Key resistance levels in focus as bullish breakout still likely.

AUDUSD has been in a tight range for almost two weeks, consolidating its rapid rally from a five-year low below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and within the 0.6340-0.6448 area.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September-April downtrend at 0.6427, along with the support-turned-resistance trendline from October 2023, has also posed a challenge for the bulls. However, with the RSI and the MACD fluctuating in the bullish area despite their sideways trajectory, hopes for an upward breakout remain alive ahead of the all-important US nonfarm payrolls. Additionally, the short-term sideways movement could be a bullish rectangle pattern, which typically resolves to the upside.

A move above the 200-day SMA at 0.6457 could initially stall somewhere between the 0.6500 psychological level and the 61.8% Fibonacci mark of 0.6548. A decisive break above the latter could trigger significant momentum toward the 0.6638 barrier, and potentially further to the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.6720.

In the bearish scenario, where the pair closes below 0.6367, the 20- and 50-day SMAs may help limit downside pressures near the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.6300. Further congestion could occur around the 0.6260 area before a sharper decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.6155.

In a nutshell, although AUDUSD is maintaining a neutral short-term outlook, the technical indicators suggest that buyers remain active, likely awaiting a close above 0.6427 to regain control.

Eurozone headline CPI held steady at 2.2% yoy in April, slightly above expectations of 2.1% yoy. CPI core, which excludes energy, food, alcohol & tobacco, surged sharply from 2.4% yoy to 2.7% yoy, surpassing the forecast of 2.5%.

The acceleration in services inflation to 3.9% from 3.5% drove much of the upside surprise, highlighting persistent domestic price pressures. Meanwhile, energy prices fell more steeply at -3.5%, and non-energy industrial goods inflation was stable at 0.6%.

Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

Eurozone manufacturing sector showed further signs of stabilization in April, with PMI Manufacturing Index finalized at 49.0, its highest reading in 32 months. Output growth was a standout, reaching a 37-month high at 51.5, reflecting a modest but encouraging improvement in activity.

Country-level data revealed a mixed picture, with Greece (53.2) and Ireland (53.0) leading the expansion, while Spain (48.1) and Austria (46.6) lagged behind. Notably, Germany (48.4) and France (48.2), two core economies, continued to show.

According to Cyrus de la Rubia at Hamburg Commercial Bank, the stabilization is somewhat unexpected given recent shocks, but optimism is holding up, aided by prospects of ECB rate cuts and the announced increase in EU defense spending.

Still, challenges remain. While manufacturers expanded margins in April, thanks to falling input costs and faster price hikes, this may not be sustainable. The risk of Chinese goods being redirected to Europe due to US tariffs could intensify competitive pressures, particularly on price.

Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

The USD/JPY and USD/CAD currency pairs are showing an upward trend, supported by the strengthening US dollar, which is backed by a number of factors. At yesterday's meeting, the Bank of Japan kept the key interest rate unchanged, disappointing "yen bulls" who had hoped for signals of a possible tightening of monetary policy. This decision by the Japanese regulator contributed to the weakening of the yen, causing the USD/JPY pair to update local highs, approaching key resistance levels.

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade near local lows, holding above support around 1.3780, indicating stabilisation in demand for the dollar. An additional factor is the weak performance of oil prices, which remain in a sideways range, limiting the potential for strengthening the Canadian dollar.

Today, investors' attention is focused on the publication of the Non-Farm Payrolls report — a key employment indicator in the US. The consensus forecast expects job growth in April to be between 135,000 and 145,000, which is significantly lower than the March figure of 228,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, while the average hourly earnings growth is forecast to be 0.3% month-on-month. However, deviations from the forecast should be taken into account.

Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the US dollar, as it would reduce the likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The emerging uncertainty and speculative sentiment ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release are contributing to heightened trader activity and could lead to false breakouts and mixed price "spikes."

USD/JPY

Technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests potential growth of the pair towards 146.80-146.30, within the framework of previously formed reversal patterns such as the "piercing candle" and "bullish harami." A rebound from these or current levels could lead to a decline towards 145.00-144.00.

The following events could influence the pricing of USD/JPY:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US unemployment rate;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US average hourly earnings;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Change in US non-farm payrolls.

USD/CAD

For the second consecutive week, buyers of the USD/CAD pair are preventing the price from falling further near 1.3800-1.3770. According to technical analysis, the USD/CAD pair is in sideways movement within the range of 1.3900–1.3870. If the price consolidates above 1.3900, it may test the 1.4000 level. A move below 1.3780 could trigger the resumption of a downward momentum towards 1.3200-1.3100.

The following events could influence the direction of USD/CAD:

• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US industrial orders;
• Today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions on CAD.

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