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USDJPY remains constructive and attacks again key barriers at 149.80/150.00 (bear-channel upper boundary / psychological) on Monday, after a double failure at 150 level last week.

Technical picture is improving on daily chart (converging 10/20DMA’s below the price are about to form a bull-cross / RSI is heading north) but 14-d momentum continues to move sideways on the centreline ad 55/100/200 DMA’s are still in bearish configuration and partially offset positive signals.

Fundamentals are also mixed, as signals that BoJ remains on policy tightening path may offer support to yen, but would be countered by persisting hawkish stance of the US central bank and their latest signals for only two cuts in this year, mainly due to growing concerns that inflation may rise again on escalation of trade war.

Look for reaction at 150 zone for fresh direction signals, with sustained break higher to open way for fresh acceleration higher and unmask targets at 151.25 (Fibo 38.2% of 158.87/146.53) and 151.76 (200DMA).

On the other hand, repeated failure at 150 zone would weaken near-term structure, though bias to remain bullishly aligned while above 20DMA (148.85).

Res: 150.00; 150.53; 151.00; 151.25
Sup: 149.45; 148.85; 148.72; 148.18

Market Picture

Crypto market capitalisation rose 3.2% in the last 24 hours to $2.86 trillion, the highest in two and a half weeks. The climb intensified on Sunday and accelerated early in the day on Monday. Technically, the market remains below its 200-day moving average, but the battle for the long-term trend could be the main event on Monday.

Bitcoin appears to have already won that battle of its own, pushing off its 200-day on Sunday and gaining ground on Monday. Prices at $87K repeat last week’s peaks. In our view, the bulls defended the long-term uptrend, although the price spent a long time below the key curve. Among the short-term benchmarks for buyers, we highlight $90K, where the significant round mark and the 50-day average are combined.

Ethereum has added over 10% in the last 24 hours, accelerating gains as it returns to the territory above $2000. That said, the second most capitalised coin has been falling for so long and has fallen so low that it will need to exceed $2,300 to break the downtrend of the past three months.

News Background

According to Santiment, the available supply of Ethereum on trading platforms has shrunk to 8.97 million ETH. This is the lowest value since November 2015, which could indicate potential growth due to the reduced supply. BlackRock expects that investor interest in Ethereum may soon recover.

The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has lifted economic sanctions on Tornado Cash. Over 100 Ethereum addresses were removed from the sanction’s lists.

Australia presented a plan to develop cryptocurrency legislation in the country. It provides for the creation of a regulated ecosystem that will combine innovation with consumer protection.

Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, intends to hire one of the Big Four audit firms to verify reserves. According to the head of Tether, this will be much easier after the Donald Trump administration comes to power. Tether was among the seven largest buyers of US Treasury bonds.

US economic activity accelerated at the end of Q1, led by strong rebound in the services sector. PMI Services surged from 51.0 to 54.3 in March, lifting Composite PMI from 51.6 to 53.5. However, the picture was not universally upbeat, with the Manufacturing PMI slipping back into contraction territory at 49.8, down from 52.7.

Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson noted that the data suggest annualized growth of 1.9% in March, but only 1.5% for the quarter—marking a slowdown from Q4 2024.

Williamson added that near-term risks also seem "tilted to the downside". Much of the services rebound may prove short-lived. Manufacturing's decline highlights the waning benefit from earlier "front-running of tariffs". Business confidence fell to one of the lowest levels in the past three years, with anxious over the fallout from the Trump administration’s "Federal spending cuts and tariffs."

Tariff-related inflation pressures are beginning to show. Input costs are now rising at the fastest pace in nearly two years Manufacturers, in turn, are increasingly raising prices to protect margins. Though, services inflation remains relatively tame—thanks to soft demand and competitive pricing.

Full US PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0787; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0852; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the downside. Correction from 1.0953 short term top would extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0953 will resume the rally from 1.0176 towards 1.1274 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2878; (P) 1.2926; (R1) 1.2965; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays mildly on the downside despite today's recovery. Correction from 1.3013 short term top would extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.71; (P) 149.19; (R1) 149.79; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Recovery from 146.52 is seen as a corrective move. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 148.17 support will bring retest of 146.52 first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8805; (P) 0.8823; (R1) 0.8849; More…

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as consolidations continue in established range above 0.8757. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Market sentiment today is largely influenced by a mix of global PMI releases and ongoing uncertainty around US tariff policy. There are reports suggesting the Trump administration may exclude a set of sector-specific tariffs from the sweeping reciprocal levies set to begin on April 2. US futures are pointing to a solid open, suggesting investors are hoping for a more surgical, less disruptive approach to trade action.

However, clarity is still lacking. It’s unclear whether excluded sectors will be spared entirely or if reciprocal tariffs will blanket all imports, with sectoral levies added on top later. Despite the ambiguity, sentiment has been lifted, with US futures pointing to a solid open.

European currencies are also finding some support alongside gains in regional equities. However, upside in both Euro and Sterling is capped by mixed PMI data. In the Eurozone, manufacturing showed a smaller contraction and even a bounce in output, signaling green shoots. Yet, service sector growth lost momentum, adding to the sense of an uneven recovery. In the UK, services surprised with strong growth, but manufacturing activity deteriorated sharply, dragging down the overall tone of the report.

Meanwhile, Australia outperformed, with both sectors registering improvements and supporting Aussie’s strength today. On the other hand, Yen is under pressure as Japan’s services PMI fell into contraction territory, raising concerns about domestic demand and the broader economic outlook.

Currency performance reflects this divergence. Aussie is currently the strongest performer for the day, followed by Sterling and Swiss Franc. At the bottom of the table, Yen leads losses, followed by Kiwi and Dollar. Loonie and Euro sit in the middle of the pack.

Technically, Silver could have formed a short term top at 34.21, ahead of 34.84 resistance. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 32.07) will suggest that rebound from 28.74 has already completed. Further break of 30.78 support will indicate that corrective pattern from 34.84 has already started the third leg back to 28.74 support and possibly below.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.22%. DAX is down -0.06%. CAC is down -0.12%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.001 at 4.723. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.028 at 2.797. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.18%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.91%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.15%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.25%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.028 to 1.545.

UK PMI manufacturing falls to 44.6, while services rises to 53.2

UK delivered a mixed set of PMI readings in March, with services providing a welcome surprise as the index rose from 51.0 to 53.2, a 7-month high. PMI Composite also improved from 50.5 to 52.0, suggesting modest expansion. However, the picture was clouded by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing, where the index slumped from 46.9 to 44.6 — its lowest level in 18 months.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, cautioned against over-optimism, noting that “one good PMI doesn’t signal a recovery.”

The data points to the economy barely expanding, with GDP growth tracking around 0.1% for the quarter. Employment continues to be trimmed as firms remain wary of rising costs and an uncertain economic outlook, with business confidence still hovering near January’s two-year low.

Looking ahead, challenges appear to be mounting. Businesses are bracing for higher National Insurance contributions starting in April,. Additionally, the anticipated unveiling of US tariff policy on April 2 adds another uncertainty.

ECB’s Cipollone: Case for rate cuts strengthens amid falling energy, rising Euro and trade risks

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone struck a dovish tone in an interview with Expansión, signaling that recent developments have reinforced the case for further interest rate cuts.

Cipollone noted that at the time of the March meeting, ECB projections already showed inflation converging to the 2% target by early 2026—even under a rate path that included market expectations of cuts below 2%.

Since then, "not only has this narrative been confirmed, but key issues have arisen that have strengthened the arguments in favour of continuing to lower rates", he added.

Cipollone noted that energy price pressures have already begun to reverse. Meanwhile, Euro appreciation and higher real interest rates are working in tandem to cool price growth.

If US tariffs on European goods materialize, that would have a "negative impact on demand", which would "further strengthen the downward trend in inflation". Similarly, escalating U.S.-China trade conflict may push Chinese goods into Europe, adding to price suppression across the bloc.

Notably, Cipollone suggested that inflation could reach target even sooner than the ECB’s latest projections anticipate.

Eurozone PMI hints at green shoots, manufacturing leads the way

Eurozone PMI data for March offered fresh signs of economic stabilization, with Composite index rising to a 7-month high of 50.4, supported by a notable rebound in manufacturing. The PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.6 to 48.7, its highest level in 26 months. Manufacturing output crossed into expansion territory at 50.7, a 34-month high. Services PMI slipped slightly from 50.6 to 50.4, but remained in growth territory.

Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank noted the possibility that "temporary tariff-related import boom" could be inflating manufacturing figures. But he also expressed optimism that with, Europe’s investment drive in defense and infrastructure, "hope for a more sustained recovery seems well founded".

Encouragingly for ECB, pricing pressures in the services sector are easing, with both input costs and output prices decelerating. In manufacturing, price pressures remain moderate as well, helped by falling energy costs.

However, risks remain. Potential retaliation tariffs from the US, trade tensions with China, and higher food prices caused by extreme weather events are all sources of uncertainty that could cloud the outlook and "make some ECB members hesitant to cut rates too aggressively."

BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms commitment to rate hikes despite market and financial pressures

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament today that the central bank remains committed to raise interest rate if underlying inflation is deemed to be approaching its 2% target.

He emphasized that BoJ’s objectives remain squarely focused on price stability, and that its approach to policy "would not be disturbed by considerations for the BoJ's finances."

Ueda’s remarks come as concerns mount over the BoJ’s balance sheet in light of interest rate hikes and volatility in equity markets.

BoJ estimated in December that if short-term borrowing costs were to rise to 2%, it could incur losses of up to JPY 2 trillion.

Additionally, Ueda noted that a 1000-point drop in the Nikkei 225 index would translate into a valuation loss of about JPY 1.8 trillion in its ETF holding.

While these figures highlight the scale of financial risks, Ueda’s insistence on prioritizing price stability signals that BoJ is prepared to weather market volatility in pursuit of its monetary policy mandate.

Japan PMI composite falls to 48.5, business confidence sinks to lowest since 2020

Japan’s private sector saw a sharp loss in momentum at the end of Q1, with PMI Composite falling from 52.0 to 48.5, marking the first contraction in five months. PMI Manufacturing dropped from 49.0 to 48.3, its lowest in a year and ninth consecutive month in contraction. More concerning was the steep decline in PMI services, which fell from 53.7 to 49.5 — the weakest reading since mid-2024.

According to Annabel Fiddes of S&P Global, the downturn was driven by a "fresh fall in service sector activity" and an accelerated decline in manufacturing. Firms pointed to "strong inflationary pressure had dampened sales", with clients showing increasing hesitation to place orders.

The broader picture is one of growing pessimism. Japanese firms cited a host of structural and cyclical challenges — from persistent inflation and labor shortages to an aging population and deepening global trade uncertainty. As a result, business confidence for future activity fell to its lowest level since August 2020.

Australia's PMI manufacturing jumps to 52.6, services rises to 51.2

Australia’s PMI Manufacturing surged to 52.6 from 50.4—marking a 29-month high—while PMI Services ticked up to 51.2 from 50.8. PMI Composite , which combines both sectors, rose to a 7-month high at 51.3.

Jingyi Pan of S&P Global Market Intelligence highlighted that the output growth was not only the strongest in seven months but also "broad-based" across both manufacturing and services. Despite a decline in export orders due to weather disruptions and weak global conditions, domestic demand rebounded impressively, pushing new orders to their highest growth rate in nearly three years.

However, the report also highlighted a notable dip in business confidence. Suppressed price increases may have helped support near-term demand. But "tariff uncertainty may continue to cast a shadow on output growth in the year ahead".

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8805; (P) 0.8823; (R1) 0.8849; More…

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as consolidations continue in established range above 0.8757. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

• Gold slows moderately after hitting an all-time high of 3,057.
• Price finds support near 3,000, but technical signals flag caution.
• Bulls may need a close above 3,067 to attract new buyers.

Gold opened neutral around Friday’s closing price of 3,023 as the final trading week of March kicked off. The precious metal moved to the sidelines as investors speculated that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would be less punitive than previously expected – likely excluding some countries and avoiding sector-specific barriers.

However, the bounce near the psychological 3,000 mark revealed that demand for safe-haven assets remains intact, while expectations of further rate cuts in the US also helped support prices.

Still, with the RSI and the stochastic oscillator tilting south after peaking in the overbought zone, questions arise about how long gold can maintain its footing after a strong three-week bullish streak.

The constraining line from February at 2,993 could provide protection in the coming sessions if downside pressures resurface. If not, the bears could push the price toward the crucial 2,930-2,950 zone, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the tentative support trendline from January are positioned. A break below this level would weaken the short-term outlook and likely trigger a stronger selling wave toward the 50-day SMA, currently at 2,875.

On the upside, a sustainable move above 3,067 may activate fresh buying orders, bringing the 3,100 round level next into view. A continuation higher could then challenge the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the previous decline at 3,155.

Summing up, gold’s positive momentum may take a breather in the coming sessions. However, only a drop beneath 2,930-2,950 would make the current uptrend less credible.

Gold holds within a narrow range at the beginning of the week but remains constructive above $3000 level (psychological / 10DMA).

Recent pullback from new historical high ($3057) found firm ground at $3000 which was highlighted as strong support, with Friday’s strong rejection here, adding to significance of support.

Near-term action so far looks as consolidation ahead of fresh push higher after bullish stance was reinforced by weekly close above $3000.

Technical studies remain firmly bullish on daily chart, though overbought conditions may keep the price in prolonged consolidation, with potential dips below $3000 not ruled out.

Fundamentals are expected to remain a key driver, with hawkish Fed (kept rates on hold and signaled two 25bp rate cuts in 2025), escalating geopolitical situation and gloomy economic outlook, including threats that escalating trade war would fuel inflation, to continue to boost safe haven demand.

On the other hand, hope that peace talks between USA, Russia and Ukraine would give some results and ease tensions, along with the latest softer rhetoric from President Trump regarding tariffs (due to be imposed on Apr 2) would contribute to easing high uncertainty and negatively slow migration into safety.

Near term action is to remain biased higher while $3000 support holds, with sustained break above cracked $3029 barrier (50% retracement of $3057/$2999 pullback) needed to verify bullish signal.

Conversely, loss of $3000 handle would sideline bulls and open way for deeper pullback, which should find footstep above $2971 (Fibo 38.2% of $2832/$3057 bull-leg) to mark a healthy correction and keep larger bulls intact.

Res: 3035; 3047; 3057; 3079.
Sup: 3013; 3000; 2971; 2956.