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Gold price continues to trend higher and hit new all-time high in early Thursday trading, driven by growing uncertainty over US tariffs and turbulent pollical conditions which fueled safe-haven demand.

Investors remain concerned that US tariff policies could spark a trade war and further undermine still fragile global economy.

In addition, President Trump’s U-turn in relations with Ukraine and Russia and growing tensions with the European Union, boost worries about deeper crisis (political and economic) keep traders alerted and ready for stronger migration into safety should the situation escalate.

From the technical point of view, the picture remains very bullish, with breach of $2950 barrier (the last significant obstacle on the way towards $3000) to open way for eventual attack at psychological $3000 barrier, with close above $2950 to verify positive signal.

However, headwinds at this zone should be anticipated, due to significance of the resistance and overbought conditions, but strongly favorable fundamentals are unlikely to leave much room for correction.

Supports lay at $2942 (former top); $2918 (Wednesday’s low); $2900 (psychological) and $2876 (Feb 14 trough).

Res: 2961; 2983; 1991; 3000.
Sup: 2942; 2918; 2900; 2876.

As we noted six days ago, European stock markets were showing optimism amid expectations that the armed conflict in Ukraine—now approaching its third year—would be resolved. During this period, the DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) gained approximately 1.6%, setting a historic record.

However, sentiment appears to be shifting in the opposite direction. According to the Germany 40 mini chart on FXOpen, the German stock index DAX 40 experienced a sharp decline yesterday, losing around 2%. This drop is partly driven by Trump's latest tariff statements. According to Trading Economics:

→ The US President is considering imposing new 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an official announcement expected in early April.

→ Market sentiment deteriorated after ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel tempered expectations of a more expansionary monetary policy.

Technical Analysis of the DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen)

Since the start of 2025, the index has been following an upward trend (illustrated by the blue channel), which remains intact. However, yesterday’s aggressive drop pushed the price into the lower half of the channel, indicating increased bearish activity. If negative sentiment persists, the price could decline further—potentially testing the lower boundary of the channel.

The 22,200 level appears to be a significant support zone, as bulls demonstrated strength here less than 10 days ago (as indicated by the blue arrows):

→ The price formed a long lower wick when testing the psychological 22k mark.

→ It then surged into the upper half of the channel with a strong bullish candle.

Conversely, the 22,730 level has flipped from support to resistance (marked by orange arrows), signalling the presence of bearish pressure.

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Market

German bunds heavily underperformed US Treasuries yesterday. Yields jumped between 4.6 and 6.4 bps in a response to ECB board member Schnabel’s interview with the Financial Times. The influential policymaker isn’t so sure anymore that monetary policy is still restrictive after the January rate cut to 2.75%. Amongst others she’s referring to the bank lending survey, which shows lending is picking up, and that we are in a situation of transformation (high & rising public debt, huge digital and climate investment needs and increasing global fragmentation) that is reversing the downward trend of the neutral rate. For Schnabel the policy rates’ travel of direction (lower) is therefore no longer that obvious. Her comments have opened up the debate in the long run-up to the March meeting. We expect the rate cut then to be followed by a pause at least through April, ending the back-to-back sequence since September. US rates declined up to 4.2 bps. The front end of the curve slightly outperformed following the FOMC January meeting minutes even though they only confirmed what Fed officials have been saying over the past few weeks: additional cuts come only when inflation shows further progress. EUR/USD ignored the improving rate differentials and inched lower on a poor (European) equity performance instead. The pair closed at 1.042. JPY secured the first place amid hawkish talk coming from BoJ board member Takata. USD/JPY eased to 151.5 with losses technically accelerating this morning to 150 as investors brace for tomorrow’s Japanese inflation figures. Comments by BoJ governor Ueda – didn’t discuss rising yields at regular meeting with PM Ishiba – are interpreted as a thumbs up to more rate hikes. UK inflation figures yesterday helped push up gilt yields several basis points even though BoE governor Bailey flagged the CPI quickening a day in advance. EUR/GBP treaded water around 0.828.

Today’s economic calendar is of secondary importance with the weekly US jobless claims and the Philly Fed business outlook. Consumer confidence in the Europe is due. None of those will move the market needle, let alone break the stalemate in (US) bond markets. A slew of ECB and Fed speeches is a wildcard for trading though. President Trump remains a notorious source of volatility. His after-market comments yesterday are a case in point. After slapping China with 10% of import tariffs, he said a deal with the country is still possible. It’s triggered some CNY strength this morning (USD/CNY 7.27).

News & Views

The Australian unemployment rate in January rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, the country’s statistics bureau ABS reported, but underlying dynamics in the labour market remain strong as the rise coincided with a rise in the participation rate. The latter reached a record high of 67.3%. It is now 0.8% higher compared to the same month last year and even 1.8% higher compared to March 2020, before the start of the corona crisis. Employment in January rose a much stronger than expected 44k, due to a rise in full employment. ABS also analyses that “The trend unemployment rate remained at 4.0% in January. It has been within a relatively narrow range of 3.9 and 4.1% for the past 12 months. In trend terms, employment grew by around 34k people (0.2%), which was at the same rate as the 20-year pre-pandemic average (0.2%).” Ongoing solid labour market data confirm the guidance of the RBA that even after starting its easing cycle with a 25 bps rate cut (to 4.10) earlier this week, that it is too early to engage in a protracted rate cut cycle. In this respect, RBA Deputy Governor Hauser this morning repeated that the RBA still has work to do to bring inflation back to target. He indicated that the RBA probably won’t meet its inflation target if it were to follow the rate cut path currently discounted by markets.

The British Retail Consortium consume confidence indicator for the country declined further. The balance indicator declined to -37, the lowest level since the new Labour government took office. It was at +2 when the government took office last year. Half of the Brittons expect the economy to worsen in the next three months with only one-in-eight expecting a pick-up. “With many businesses warning of the impact that April’s employer national insurance contributions increase will have on hiring, and the rising energy price cap pushing up the cost of domestic bills, it is little surprise that many households are worried,” Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC is quoted.

In focus today

Large data prints are due in Denmark. We receive consumer confidence data for February. We expect confidence to rise to -11, which still indicates a negative view of the Danish economy among the Danes despite the noticeable uptick in consumption and wages outpacing inflation. GDP for Q4 is also due, with current data indicating a slight decline in industrial production, a modest increase in construction and some growth in consumer services. Overall, we expect GDP growth of 0.2% q/q, but uncertainty is very large.

In the euro area, consumer confidence data for February is set to be released and will be of high interest. After a continuous upward trend over the past two years, consumer confidence has declined in recent months. Given that private consumption is anticipated to be the main growth driver this year, consumer sentiment will be important for the economic outlook.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In China, Loan Prime Rates were unchanged as expected at 3.6%. PBOC likely awaits more information on what the Fed is doing in their policy stance and what happens on tariffs. They do not want to add to weakening pressure on the CNY but have signalled a preference for stability.

In the US, President Trump mentioned future tariffs on cars, semiconductors, chips, pharmaceuticals, drugs and lumber over the next month. This reinforces his remarks on Tuesday, although no additional information was added.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB Executive Board known for her hawkish stance, proposed initiating a discussion on whether additional rate cuts by the ECB are necessary. This suggestion follows her comment last month indicating that the direction of rate cuts is no longer as clear.

In the US, the Fed's January policy meeting took place. A 'vast majority' of FOMC still saw current policy as restrictive, although 'significantly less' so than before the start of the easing cycle. This still implies a clear bias towards cutting further in the future, but no sense of urgency.

There was considerable discussion about the potential inflation risks associated with fiscal, immigration, and trade policies. Most comments on realized inflation data were optimistic, with a couple of participants noting that distinguishing between 'persistent' and 'temporary' changes to inflation could get increasingly difficult over coming months. Yields ticked slightly lower, but overall reaction was muted.

In Sweden, the Inflation Expectation Survey conducted by the Origo Group (previously Prospera) was released. We saw an increase in the five-year inflation expectations mean to 2.2%, which could be considered somewhat concerning. However, a closer examination reveals that the median remains unchanged at 2.0%, suggesting that the upward drift in the mean was likely due outlying responses. Overall, we do not view the survey results as a decisive factor impacting future rate decisions by the Riksbank this time around.

In the UK, January's CPI data presented a mixed picture. The headline rate was higher than expectations at 3.0% (cons: 2.8%, prior: 2.5%), while core matched forecasts at 3.7% (cons: 3.7%, prior: 3.2%). Services inflation was lower than anticipated, aligning with the Bank of England's expectation of 5.0% (cons: 5.1%, prior: 4.4%). The headline increase was driven by fuel prices, education, and base effects from airfares. With a rise in core services, the Bank of England is likely to maintain a gradual approach to monetary policy. This is the final CPI release before the Bank's meeting on 20 March, making a rate cut unlikely, with expectations shifted to May.

In China, the release of home prices was mixed. New home prices showed -0.07% m/m vs -0.08% m/m in December and existing home prices -0.34% m/m from -0.31% m/m. The data still shows no convincing sign that housing has turned the corner but at least the picture has improved over the past six months. Our baseline is still a moderate recovery in prices and sales activity in 2025 from very low levels. A turn in housing is key to get a sustained recovery in private consumption, one of the top priorities for Chinese policy makers this year. View more in our China Headlines, 19 February.

Equities: Equities were mostly lower yesterday. Europe broke the streak of gains while US rose modestly in a quiet session. European equities and especially Germany came under pressure, with DAX selling off -2.1%. For the first in a long time, sector performance was cautious as well. We have been surprised to see how well markets have coped with Trump's tariff threats, so it makes sense to see some investor angst returning. Tariff sensitive auto stocks fell 2% together with construction and materials after a strong run this year. Investors found shelter in staples and health care. That said, Trump's critical comments of Ukraine and tariff threats did not take VIX higher. Volatility is still parked at 15, close to year-lows despite all the moving pieces on geopolitics. US futures are somewhat lower this morning.

FI: European rates sold off across the curve, with the biggest sell-off happening from the belly of the curve with a 6bp sell-off. 10y Bunds are now trading at 2.55%, which is a sell-off of almost 20bp since the 2.36% trough less than two weeks. Expectations for higher debt issuance and a string of better-than-expected data, and less geopolitical turmoil may all be attributable to this.

FX: Yesterday was another relatively quiet session in FX markets, with broad USD strength except against the JPY and NOK. EUR/USD has remained rangebound this week, trading with a slight downward bias within the 1.04-1.05 range. Despite rising long-end US yields over the past couple of days, USD/JPY has notably declined toward YTD lows below 152 following hawkish remarks from BoJ board member Hajime Takata. EUR/GBP has remained firmly below 0.83. In Scandies, EUR/SEK dipped below 11.20, while EUR/NOK edged lower to around 11.60.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.00; (P) 191.11; (R1) 191.76; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is now mildly on the downside as fall from 193.04 accelerates lower. Break of 187.04 support will extend the fall from 19979 towards 180.00 support. On the upside, above 190.64 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first, and probably extend the corrective pattern from 180.00 further.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall to 100% projection of 208.09 to 180.00 from 199.79 at 171.70, even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.36; (P) 158.24; (R1) 158.77; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the downside as fall from 161.17 accelerates lower. Break of 155.72 support will be a strong sign that whole fall from 175.41 is resuming. Retest of 154.40 support should be seen next and firm break there should confirm. Nevertheless, on the upside, above 158.35 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first, and probably extend the corrective pattern from 154.40 further.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8271; (P) 0.8291; (R1) 0.8300; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.8472 is in progress for retesting 0.8221 low. On the upside, above 0.8308 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8376 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8221 medium term bottom could extend higher through 55 W EMA (now at 0.8435). However, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8624 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621) holds. Another decline through 0.8221 would remain mildly in favor. Firm break of 0.8221 will resume whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) and carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6395; (P) 1.6430; (R1) 1.6462; More...

EUR/AUD's break of 1.6391 support invalidated the original view. Corrective pattern from 1.6800 is still in progress and extending. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6283. On the upside, though, break of 1.6518 resistance will bring stronger rebound back to 1.6631.

In the bigger picture, with 1.5996 key support (2024 low) intact, larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9409; (P) 0.9432; (R1) 0.9451; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as range trading continues below 0.9516. On the downside, break of 0.9359 support will revive the case that choppy rise from 0.9204 is merely a correction and has completed. Deeper fall should then be seen back to retest 0.9204 low. However, firm break of 0.9516 and sustained trading above 0.9481 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implication and extend the rise from 0.9204.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481 should confirm that whole fall from 0.9928 has completed at 0.9204. Further rally should then be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9651 and above. However, another rejection by 0.9481 will keep outlook bearish for extending larger down trend through 0.9204.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4195; (P) 1.4220; (R1) 1.4266; More...

USD/CAD is staying in consolidations above 1.4150 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.4378 resistance holds. Fall from 1.4791 is correcting whole rise from 1.3418. Break of 1.4150 will target 1.3946 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.3942).

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.