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Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.7183 resistance will suggest that pullback from 0.7277 has completed. Stronger rally should then be seen to retest 0.7277 high. However, decisive break of 0.7076 will indicate that larger scale correction is underway and target 0.6832 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3729 support holds. Rise from 1.3549 is seen and the third leg of the pattern from 1.3480. Above 1.3868 will target 1.3965 resistance. On the downside. Break of 1.3729 will suggest that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 214.66 will extend the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high. Strong resistance should be seen there to cap upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 213.25 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 211.23 support instead.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.27) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 185.77 temporary top. Rebound from 182.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 187.93. Above 185.77 will target a retest on 187.93 high. Nevertheless, firm break of 184.42 will suggest that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 182.01.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.51) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

EUR/GBP is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8863 at 0.8466. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral. Rise from 1.6108 is tentatively seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.6125. Above 1.6381 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.6411) and above. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6108 will resume the larger down trend from 1.8554.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.6984) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/CHF was rejected at 0.9167 resistance and reversed from there. But downside is contained above 0.9094 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral and further fall is in favor. On the downside, firm break of 0.9094 will extend the fall from 0.9264 to retest 0.8979 low. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.9167 fall from 0.9264 has completed as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9252) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid delivered a hawkish warning on inflation, arguing that policymakers should not assume the latest energy-driven price surge will quickly disappear. Speaking at a conference in Iceland, Schmid said inflation remains his "primary concern," stressing that it is "too hot and has been above target for too long." While many forecasts assume inflation pressures will ease later this year as energy markets stabilize, Schmid appeared skeptical that the current shock can simply be dismissed as temporary.

The strongest message came from his rejection of the transitory inflation narrative. Schmid said he places "little stock in assuming that the most recent runup in prices is transitory within an acceptable time horizon," adding that his focus remains firmly on inflation when considering the appropriate policy path. He also warned that "now is not the time to let down our guard," highlighting concerns that inflation expectations could become more entrenched after years of above-target price growth. While Schmid stopped short of explicitly endorsing further rate hikes, his remarks suggest a growing reluctance within parts of the Fed to look through the inflationary effects of the Middle East energy shock.

Schmid also noted that the economy remains resilient enough for the Fed to maintain its focus on inflation. He said "most economic indicators suggest continued steady growth" and that the labor market remains "in balance." Additionally, discussions with energy firms in his district revealed a "high degree of caution," with producers reluctant to significantly increase output despite higher prices. That hesitation could limit the speed at which oil markets rebalance, reinforcing Schmid's concern that the energy shock may prove more persistent than many investors currently expect.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a clear message to markets on Friday: rising inflation does not automatically mean higher interest rates. While acknowledging that the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is likely to push inflation above target, Bailey indicated that there is no urgency for the BoE to respond with immediate rate hikes. Instead, policymakers are choosing to monitor how the conflict affects the economy and inflation before making further policy adjustments.

Bailey argued that the current situation differs from a broad-based inflation problem because much of the pressure stems from higher energy prices. He said allowing inflation to remain above target is justified given uncertainty over the economic impact of the Iran war and weak growth conditions. At the same time, he emphasized that policy remains data dependent, noting that the BoE will "monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required." His remarks suggest policymakers see little benefit in rushing to tighten while the outlook remains highly uncertain.

Perhaps most importantly, Bailey welcomed the market's decision to reduce expectations for future rate hikes. Investors are now pricing only one quarter-point increase by the end of 2026, a sharp shift from the more aggressive tightening expectations seen earlier this year. Bailey's response — "I hope it goes on" — was a strong signal that the BoE is comfortable with a less hawkish market outlook. While he warned that "second-round effects" would eventually require a response if they emerge, the immediate message was that the Bank remains patient.

Key takeaways

• WTI crude oil is on track for its worst monthly performance since April 2025, down 16% in May as easing US-Iran tensions reduce geopolitical risk premium.
• Technical signals remain bearish, as WTI trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages within a descending channel.
• Further downside risks remain in play toward the US$87.60 and US$81.94/85 support zones unless WTI breaks above the key US$95.10 resistance.

The former red-hot West Texas crude oil is looking to end the month of May 2026 on a bearish footing, an intra-session monthly decline of 16% (at this time of writing), its first negative month after four months of consecutive gains, and on the verge of recording its worst monthly performance since April 2025.

WTI Crude from Outperformer to Underperformer

Fig. 1: Major cross-asset performances from 1 May 2026 to 28 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

The ongoing weakness in crude oil prices has been primarily due to a potential end to the current three-month US-Iran conflict, which is likely to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforced by a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and, separately, to launch further talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. This sticky point caused the breakdown in US-Iran negotiations over the past month.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has now become the worst performer among major cross-asset classes in May, with WTI crude oil futures notching a double-digit loss of 13% from 1 May 2026 to Thursday, 28 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

WTI Crude – Oscillating Within a Minor Descending Channel

Fig. 2: West Texas crude oil CFD minor trend as of 29 May 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Trend bias: Minor downtrend within medium-term range configuration with 95.10 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).

Supports: 87.60 (20 Apr 2026 gap), and 81.94/85 (17 Apr/11 Mar 2026 low & minor descending channel’s lower boundary).

Next resistances: 97.40 (26 May 2026 high), 100.00 (psychological, 20-day & 50-day Mas), and 102.56 (22 May 2026 high & 61.6% Fibonacci retracement from 19 May 2026 high to 29 May 2026 intraday low).

Key Elements to Support the Near-Term Bearish Bias on the WTI Crude

• Price actions have formed a minor descending channel since the 20 May 2026 high
• Price actions remain below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 25 May 2026.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions below the 50 level and has not reached its oversold region (below the 30 level).