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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7645; (P) 0.7666; (R1) 0.7704; More….

USD/CHF's recovery suggests that fall from 0.7816 has completed, and the corrective pattern from 0.7603 is extending with another rising leg. Sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7730) will bring stronger rally to 0.7816 resistance. Though, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7874). On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603 low.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8152) holds.

January’s highly anticipated US non-farm payroll report delivered a decisive upside surprise, with job growth nearly doubling expectations and marking the strongest monthly gain since mid-2025. The data decisively push back against recent concerns that the labor market was deteriorating rapidly. Rather than rolling over, hiring appears to be regaining momentum at the start of the new year. The report suggests that underlying labour demand remains firm, even after a period of softer monthly gains through much of 2025.

For policy expectations, the message is clear that there is no urgency for the Fed to move again in March. Futures pricing for a rate cut next month dropped toward 5% following the release, effectively taking that meeting off the table. June remains the earliest plausible window for further easing, but that timeline still looks uncertain. Markets will need additional data before confidently reassessing the path beyond the first quarter.

Equities responded swiftly to the stronger tone. DOW futures jumped over 200 points in early trade, hinting that the index's record run could soon resume. S&P 500 may now be preparing for another serious attempt at the 7,000 psychological resistance level. Treasury markets moved in tandem. The 10-year yield rebounded strongly after sliding earlier in the week, though it remains unclear whether the move has sufficient momentum to decisively reclaim the 4.2% mark.

Dollar also firmed broadly following the release, though gains were uneven across major peers. The extent of the rebound will likely hinge on broader risk sentiment; if equities extend higher, risk appetite could limit safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Meanwhile, Europe faces renewed trade friction with China. A French strategy report proposed earlier this week either a 30% across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports or a 30% Euro depreciation versus the renminbi to counter a surge in cheap imports. The report, prepared by the Haut-Commissariat à la Stratégie et au Plan, warned that key sectors such as autos, machine tools, chemicals and batteries are under direct competitive pressure, citing sustained Chinese cost advantages of 30–40% and an “undervalued” currency. China responded sharply, with a social media account affiliated with CCTV warning of reciprocal tariffs, and investigations into French wine.

In currency markets, Yen remains the day’s strongest performer for now, followed by Aussie and Kiwi. Loonie is the weakest, trailed by Euro and Swiss Franc, while Dollar and Sterling sit mid-pack.

In Europe, FTSE is up 0.80%. DAX is down -0.22%. CAC is up 0.09%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.001 at 4.517. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.008 at 2.822. Earlier in Asia, Japan was on holiday. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.31%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.09%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.41%.

US NFP beats at 130k, unemployment rate dips to 4.3%

US non-farm payrolls surprised to the upside in January, rising 130k against expectations for just 66k. The gain was also well above the 15k average monthly increase seen through 2025.

Unemployment rate edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%, beating forecasts for no change, while the participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.5%. The combination suggests labor supply and demand both strengthened modestly at the start of the year.

Wage pressures also remained firm. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% consensus, with annual wage growth holding at 3.7% yoy. For markets, the report challenges expectations of rapid Fed easing and reinforces the narrative of a labor market that remains resilient.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7645; (P) 0.7666; (R1) 0.7704; More….

USD/CHF's recovery suggests that fall from 0.7816 has completed, and the corrective pattern from 0.7603 is extending with another rising leg. Sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7730) will bring stronger rally to 0.7816 resistance. Though, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7874). On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603 low.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8152) holds.

US non-farm payrolls surprised to the upside in January, rising 130k against expectations for just 66k. The gain was also well above the 15k average monthly increase seen through 2025.

Unemployment rate edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%, beating forecasts for no change, while the participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.5%. The combination suggests labor supply and demand both strengthened modestly at the start of the year.

Wage pressures also remained firm. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% consensus, with annual wage growth holding at 3.7% yoy. For markets, the report challenges expectations of rapid Fed easing and reinforces the narrative of a labor market that remains resilient.

Full US NFP release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap fell 2.5% in 24 hours to $2.27T. The market was below this level for several hours last Friday, the first time in the past year and a half. Trading remained stable in this range from March to November 2024. The rebound is losing momentum, increasing the likelihood of a retest of last Friday’s lows at $2.2T, potentially followed by a further 10% decline toward the $2.0T level.

Bitcoin has fallen below $67K, recording its third daily bearish candle. Of the more than 20% rebound from Friday’s lows, only slightly more than half remains. Excluding extreme slippage during illiquid trading, the next important support area is $63K, followed by $60K (a round level and recent extremes) and $58K, through which the 200-week moving average passes.

BNB has underperformed the broader market, losing nearly 6% in the last 24 hours and over 21% in seven days, roughly double the rate of decline of BTC and ETH. At levels below $600, this coin found itself in last year’s support area, from where it was actively bought on dips. But the technical situation is bleaker, as in 2025 buyers also found support on dips to the 50-week moving average, but this year bears pushed the price below that line at the end of January, after which we saw a heavy sell-off. This may only be a prelude to another 50% drop to $300.

News Background

According to CoinGlass, the Coinbase Premium index, which tracks the deviation of the BTC price on the US exchange Coinbase from the global average, has rebounded sharply, indicating a return of US investors.

However, there is no clear signal for a trend reversal yet. The Bitcoin futures market points to the likelihood of a further decline in Bitcoin. According to Amberdata, investors have not yet truly capitulated.

BitMine purchased an additional 40,000 ETH worth approximately $83.6 million. The company already owns more than 4.36 million coins and has fulfilled 72% of its plan to accumulate 5% of the ETH market supply.

According to CoinGecko, public DAT companies holding reserves in Solana faced unrealised losses exceeding $1.5 billion. The losses are concentrated among a small group of American firms whose shares have fallen by 59–73% over the past six months. However, the companies are not yet selling their assets.

EUR/CHF is consolidating under new multi-year low at 0.9094 (the lowest since Jan 2015 when the SNB abandoned its minimum exchange rate policy of 1.20 CHF per Euro) that was hit on Tuesday.

Swiss franc remains well supported on ongoing safe-haven demand and continues to advance against its major peers.

Bears eye key supports at 0.9000 zone (psychological / Jan 2015 spike low) which could be reached soon, as overall environment remains supportive.

Tuesday’s Doji candle with long tail, points to growing bids which may pause larger downtrend for consolidation or possible limited correction, as daily studies are overstretched.

Technical picture remains firmly bearish and suggest that brief breather would mark positioning for fresh push lower.

Falling 10 DMA (0.9152) marks initial resistance, followed by more significant 0.9200 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 0.9289/0.9094 bear-leg / falling 20DMA) which should cap upticks.

Res: 0.9094; 0.9152; 0.9200; 0.9222.
Sup: 0.9116; 0.9094; 0.9050; 0.9000.

• AUD confidently leads the currency race.
• JPY is getting help from capital repatriation.

The US dollar has stalled amid anticipation of the important January labour market report. Non-farm payrolls are expected to add 69K, while the unemployment rate is set to remain at 4.4%. According to Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan, if hiring stabilises and inflation continues to slow, the current Fed rate level is appropriate for achieving the dual mandate. However, derivatives are anticipating two rate cuts this year, which is putting pressure on the US dollar.

The greenback was hit by retail sales, which failed to grow in December, missing forecasts of a +0.4% increase. Americans usually spend a lot at the end of the year, and their restraint exacerbates fears of a cooling labour market and raises the chances of a federal funds rate cut. The futures market gives a 42% chance for lower rates in April and 77% in June.

The US dollar’s downbeat mood was exploited by its Australian counterpart. The AUDUSD reached 0.71 for the first time in three years on hawkish comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Houser, saying that inflation is too high. The Reserve Bank raised its key rate by 0.25 p.p. to 3.85% earlier this month. Westpac cannot rule out a repeat of this move in March. As a result, the Aussie is confidently leading the race among the 30 most liquid currencies on Forex.

The yen is attempting to compete with it in February. USDJPY is falling steadily after the parliamentary elections. The Liberal Democratic Party’s spectacular victory was initially perceived by investors as a path to fiscal profligacy by the government. However, markets now believe that Sanae Takaichi will be a fiscally responsible prime minister. If so, the repatriation of capital to Japan will lead to a strengthening of the yen. According to Nomura, USDJPY could catch up with the bond yield differential and fall to 150.

Gold continues to seek equilibrium and is trying to return to its old drivers after the rollercoaster ride at the turn of January and February. If gold is not helped by geopolitical factors, perhaps monetary policy will lend a helping hand? The increased likelihood of three, rather than two, Fed rate cuts in 2026 could be a tailwind for the precious metal.

Gold on Wednesday held above 5045 USD per ounce and traded near a two-week high. The quotes are supported by expectations of a softer Fed policy.

Growth intensified after weak US economic data. Retail sales came in below forecasts in December, pointing to a slowdown in consumer activity and fuelling fears of a cooling economy.

The market is now pricing in a higher probability of three Fed rate cuts this year than two weeks ago.

Investors are now awaiting the publication of US data on employment and inflation, which may provide additional signals about the state of the economy and the regulator’s next steps.

Demand from central banks remains robust. The People’s Bank of China increased gold reserves in January

Technical Analysis

The H4 XAU/USD chart shows that after a sharp collapse in early February from the 5550–5600 area to lows around 4400, gold has entered a recovery phase. The price has stabilised around 5000–5050 and is trading near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The bands are gradually narrowing, indicating declining volatility and the formation of consolidation following strong price swings.

On the H1 chart, the structure is more neutral. Quotes are moving within a narrow 5000–5080 range. The upper boundary acts as local resistance, while the lower acts as support. The market looks balanced, with attempts at a steady advance, but no pronounced momentum.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s rally to a two-week high primarily reflects shifting market expectations towards a more dovish Fed, amplified by recent soft US retail data. While technical indicators show stabilisation and consolidation within a recovery phase, price action remains range-bound and lacks decisive momentum. The near-term trajectory will be critically dependent on incoming US inflation and employment data, which will either validate the current dovish repricing or challenge it. Sustained central bank buying and unresolved geopolitical tensions provide a structural floor, but for a breakout above the current consolidation, gold requires a clear catalyst from upcoming macroeconomic releases.

EUR/USD started a decent upward move above 1.1880. USD/JPY declined below 155.00 and is currently consolidating losses.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro found support and started a recovery wave above the 1.1850 resistance zone.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
•  USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below 156.00 and 155.00.
• There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 154.65 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1765. The Euro climbed above 1.1800 and 1.1850 against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above 1.1880 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1930 resistance. A high is formed near 1.1928, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1765 swing low to the 1.1928 high.

Immediate support is near a connecting bullish trend at 1.1890 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next area of interest could be 1.1835.

The main breakdown zone on the EUR/USD chart sits near the 76.4% Fib retracement at 1.1805. If there is a downside break below 1.1805, the pair could drop toward 1.1765. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 1.1720 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.1930. The next hurdle is 1.1950. An upside break above 1.1950 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.2000.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above 157.20. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below 156.00 against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below 155.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 154.50 and the pair traded as low as 153.34. It is now consolidating losses with a bearish angle. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chartis near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 157.65 swing high to the 153.34 low at 154.35.

There is also a short-term bearish trend line forming at 154.5. The first barrier for the bulls could be near the 38.2% Fib retracement at 155.00.

If there is a close above the 155.00 level and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 156.00. The next key area of interest is near 156.60, above which the pair could test 157.00 in the coming days.

On the downside, the first major support is near 153.35. The next key zone is near 152.50. If there is a close below 152.50, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 150.00.

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Key takeaways

• Bullish momentum reinforced by politics: The Nikkei 225 extended its rally from the 6 February reversal low, supported by PM Takaichi’s snap election victory and a decisive parliamentary supermajority, making it the top-performing major global index over the past two sessions (+2.3%).
• Stronger yen not derailing equities: Despite USD/JPY falling on intervention fears, Japanese equities held firm. Domestically focused stocks are outperforming exporters, suggesting a stronger JPY is boosting consumer confidence and supporting internal demand.
• Acceleration phase intact toward 60,000: Technically, the short-term uptrend remains valid above 56,990 support, with upside targets at 58,932, 59,884, and 60,833–61,215. Momentum indicators continue to support further gains unless key support breaks.

The Nikkei 225 has continued to bask in the bullish limelight since last Friday, 6 February 2026’s minor bullish reversal low of 52,956, reinforced by the results of Japan’s lower house parliament snap election held on Sunday, 8 February 2026.

Incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition party has managed to score a stunning victory in the snap election, surpassing the two-thirds majority of 310 seats, with Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party winning 316 seats in the 465-seat lower house.

Nikkei 225 is the top performer among global stock markets over the past two days

Fig. 1: Global stock market indices with USD/JPY from 9 Feb to 10 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

Since the start of the week till Tuesday, 10 February 2026, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the top-performing major global stock with a positive return of 2.3%, surpassing the major US stock indices; Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), S&P 500 (-0.3%), Russell 2000 (-0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 (-0.6%) (see Fig. 1).

Interestingly, the renewed strength in the Japanese yen, where the USD/JPY shed -1% in the past two sessions due to fears of US-Japan joint intervention, is not having a negative feedback loop impact on the Nikkei 225.

Japan’s equities with high domestic exposure are outperforming exporters

Fig. 2: Relative performance of Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure against Global Exposure as of 10 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

A stronger JPY is likely to negate the current higher cost-of-living squeeze in Japan, in turn, further boosting consumer confidence, which leads to an increase in domestic spending.

Within the Nikkei 225, stocks with a higher reliance on domestic Japanese sales are outperforming export-heavy names, particularly technology equipment and automobile manufacturers with greater overseas exposure.

Since 4 February 2026, the Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure 50 Index (domestic sales) has outperformed the Nikkei 225 Global Exposure 50 Index (international sales), where its ratio increased to 0.76 on Tuesday, 10 February 2026, and broke above a 5-month descending resistance (see Fig. 2).

Hence, this counterintuitive observation suggests that a stronger Japanese yen is likely to be playing a supportive role at this juncture to maintain the bullish trend in the Japanese stock market (Nikkei 225).

Let's now look at the technical chart of Japan CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) to decipher its short-term trajectory and key levels to watch.

Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Minor bullish acceleration intact since 6 February

Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 11 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the 56,990 short-term pivotal support on the Japan 225 CFD index for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 58,932, 59,884, and 60.833/61,215 (Fibonacci extensions clusters).

On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 56,990 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 56,096, and below it risks a deeper slide to retest 55,111/54,790 (the former range resistance from 14 January to 4 February 2026).

Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias

The hourly RSI momentum indicator has so far managed to hold at its intermediate support at around the 50 level after it exited from its overbought region on Tuesday, 10 February 2026.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.48; (P) 211.61; (R1) 212.73; More...

GBP/JPY accelerates lower and breached 209.61 support. But overall price actions from 214.83 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.83 at 208.19 to bring rebound. Break of 214.83/98 is expected at a later stage to resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 208.19 will argue that larger scale correction has already started.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.