Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3235; (P) 1.3290; (R1) 1.3362; More...

GBP/USD is extending consolidations above 1.3158 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 1.3479 resistance intact, further decline is still in favor. Below 1.3158 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. However, firm break of 1.3479 will indicate that the fall from 1.3867 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7979; (P) 0.7996; (R1) 0.8017; More….

USD/CHF is extending consolidations below 0.8041 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 0.7833 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.8041 will resume the whole rally from 0.7603, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. However, decisive break of 0.7833 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8081) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3910; (P) 1.3936; (R1) 1.3971; More...

USD/CAD is staying in established range below 1.3965 and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidations could extend, but in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.3751 resistance turned support. On the upside, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that it's already reversing the whole down trend from 1.4791, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290. However, firm break of 1.3751 should indicate rejection by 1.3981, and keep the fall from 1.4791 intact. Bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.3480 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

• Gold pares losses just below the uptrend line.
• Momentum signals show easing bearish pressure, but negative bias still holds.

Gold is holding steady on Monday, supported by the 100‑day simple moving average (SMA) near 4,670, paring losses after Friday’s pullback triggered by robust US jobs data and renewed escalation in the Iran conflict, which dimmed Fed rate‑cut expectations.

The momentum indicators show bearish pressure easing: the MACD is turning higher above its signal line, though still below zero, while the RSI is flatlining just below the neutral 50 level – signalling that, although selling momentum has cooled, the broader negative bias remains intact.

A rebound off the 100-day SMA support could target a key confluence zone where the medium‑term ascending trendline meets the 20‑day SMA at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2-23 pullback near 4,578. Then, a sustained recovery above 4,850 would be needed to neutralize the emerging downside bias and open the way back toward the 50‑day SMA near 4,944.

Conversely, a clean break below 4,600 would expose the 4,550-4,375 range that contained price action in late March, followed by the 200‑day SMA near 4,150, just above the 4,000 psychological level.

All in all, gold has found some support at 4,600 and is attempting to rebound, but the lack of follow‑through buying keeps the near‑term outlook bearish. Price remains under pressure below the uptrend line despite repeated attempts to reclaim it. Holding above 4,550 is key in preventing momentum from turning decisively more negative.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6880; (P) 0.6899; (R1) 0.6913; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but remains bounded in range above 0.6832. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.6832 will extend the decline from 0.7187 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. However, firm break of 0.6978 will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 0.7817 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

Markets open the week in a surprisingly calm tone, but the stability masks a high-stakes setup ahead of US President Donald Trump’s Iran deadline. Investors are not facing a simple binary outcome. Instead, markets are positioned within a three-way risk structure, where the interpretation of escalation—not just escalation itself—will dictate the next move.

Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 7, 8pm E.T. has introduced a clear event risk. His warning of strikes on civilian infrastructure, framed as “Power Plant Day,” has raised the stakes significantly. Yet markets are not reacting with panic, suggesting that investors are leaning toward a contained outcome.

The focus is squarely on oil price as the decision trigger. The key thresholds are clear: 120+ in Brent crude as disruption threshold, 90 as resolution signal. Which side breaks will determine whether markets are forced into a deeper repricing.

So far, the tone across assets points to cautious optimism. Stocks in Japan and South Korea are trading higher today, while other regional markets remain closed for holidays. Gold is holding in a narrow range and Bitcoin is recovering modestly. Most notably, oil has stabilized after a brief spike. But there is a critical question: is the bounce in equities the start of a sustainable rally, or simply a “dead cat bounce driven” by positioning? The answer hinges not only on whether escalation occurs, but on how it is interpreted.

At the center of the current positioning is the “Short War” narrative. Some instituationl investors could be betting that any escalation will be intense but contained, with a defined timeline rather than a prolonged conflict. This belief has encouraged dip-buying behavior even as geopolitical risks remain elevated.

Two factors underpin this view:

• First, Trump’s own “2–3 week” timeline has shaped expectations that the conflict could be resolved relatively quickly once key infrastructure targets are addressed. This has created an environment where investors are pricing containment vs disruption, leaning toward the former.
• Second, there is a widespread perception that Iran’s capacity to sustain a prolonged war is limited. While Tehran has rejected the ultimatum and continued strikes across the region, including attacks on Kuwait’s oil facilities, markets appear to assume that escalation will ultimately force a negotiated outcome.

However, this view creates asymmetric risk. If escalation deviates from the short war narrative, markets may be forced into a rapid repricing. In such a scenario, a break above 120 in oil would signal that disruption—not containment—is being priced. That shift would likely trigger a broader risk-off move. Equities would come under pressure, bond yields would rise on inflation concerns, and safe-haven assets would regain traction. The current calm would quickly give way to volatility. Conversely, a de-escalation outcome—such as a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—would likely send oil back toward 90. This would ease inflation fears, pull yields lower, and support a broader risk-on rally across equities and high-beta currencies.

Currency markets are already reflecting a tentative risk-on bias. Kiwi is leading gains for the day, followed by Aussie and Sterling, while Swiss Franc and Dollar are lagging. This suggests that markets are leaning toward a benign outcome, at least for now. Ultimately, the calm in Asia is less about confidence and more about positioning ahead of a decisive event. Markets are not stable—they are compressed. And as the deadline approaches, oil will determine whether investors’ short war bet holds—or is proven wrong.

Bitcoin Finds Structural Demand Floor on ETF Inflows During War Shock, Eyes 76K

Bitcoin has built a structural demand floor near 60K as ETF-driven inflows return, even amid war-driven volatility. But upside remains capped, with a 70K breakout needed to target 76K, while the 80K zone stands as a major institutional supply wall under higher-for-longer Fed expectations. Read More.

Week Ahead: Critical Inflation Test for Fed as Oil Price Shock Moves from Fear to Data

Markets shift from pricing oil-driven risk to testing real inflation impact as US CPI takes focus. With Brent above $100, the key question is whether rising energy costs are feeding into core prices and forcing a rethink of Fed policy parth. This week’s data could confirm the stagflation trade—or challenge it. Read More.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6880; (P) 0.6899; (R1) 0.6913; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but remains bounded in range above 0.6832. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.6832 will extend the decline from 0.7187 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. However, firm break of 0.6978 will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 0.7817 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

Bitcoin has found surprising stability in an environment that has been anything but supportive. In March, as the Iran War drove a sharp rally in oil prices and intensified inflation risks, most risk assets struggled under tightening financial conditions. Yet Bitcoin held steady in range above 60k, signaling that a structural “demand floor” has already taken shape.

That floor appears to have formed around the 60k region, underpinned by a decisive shift in flows. March recorded USD 1.32 billion in ETF-driven inflows, snapping a four-month streak of withdrawals. Institutional players effectively treated the war-driven dip as a strategic accumulation opportunity, stepping in aggressively at lower levels.

At the same time, the supply side showed clear signs of fatigue. The market had already absorbed two major waves of liquidation—from 126k (Oct) to 80k (Nov), and then from 98k (Jan) to 60k (Feb). This sequence points to broad seller exhaustion, with weak hands largely flushed out and downside momentum losing traction.

Technically, in the near term, the 70k level stands as the key breakout trigger. A firm move above this psychological level, particularly alongside a sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 70,959) would signal that the pattern from 59,866 low is extending with another another upleg. Such a development would open the path toward 76k resistance and potentially extend further.

However, the structure of the pattern so far suggests that it’s merely a consolidation phase within the larger down trend from 126,289. Hence, upside should be constrained by a clearly defined ceiling.

The zone between the 50% retracement of 97,922 to 59,866 at 78,894 and the 80,492 support-turned-resistance marks a significant institutional distribution zone. This area aligns closely with the 80k level, forming a well-defined “supply wall” where large-scale profit-taking is likely to emerge.

The macro backdrop reinforces this floor vs ceiling contrast. While ETF flows and positioning support the downside, Bitcoin continues to face non-yielding asset pressure amid higher-for-longer Fed expectations. Rising real yields and the fading prospect of rate cuts limit the scope for sustained upside, even as demand stabilizes.

In this context, Bitcoin’s current setup reflects balance rather than breakout. A durable floor has been established near 60k, but a decisive shift in macro conditions would be needed to clear the 80k ceiling. Until then, price action is likely to remain defined by range dynamics, with rallies capped and dips supported.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh decline after it faced rejection near 1.1625.
• A major contracting triangle is forming with support at 1.1450 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is moving lower and might struggle to stay above 1.3120.
• WTI Crude Oil prices show bullish signs above the $105 resistance.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro struggled to stay above 1.1600 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1565 support.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1443 swing low to the 1.1627 high. The pair also settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

Immediate support is seen near 1.1485 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1443 swing low to the 1.1627 high.

The first key support sits at 1.1450. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1450. A close below 1.1450 might call for heavy losses. In the stated case, it could even revisit 1.1365.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.1550 zone. The first major resistance sits at 1.1580. The main resistance could be 1.1620. A close above 1.1620 could open the doors for gains above 1.1650. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1750.

Looking at Oil, the price started a steady increase, and the bulls were able to pump the price above the $115 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US ISM Services Index for March 2026 – Forecast 55.0, versus 56.1 previous.

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Markets conclude a very volatile week, with hopes for peace going back and forth and sentiment losing its head.
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

Week in review – A sentiment rollercoaster as Markets price in peak conflict

What a rollercoaster week. It began with soaring optimism and ended with a brutal geopolitical reality check, capped off by a blockbuster jobs report dropped into an empty market.

The Early-Week Melt-Up

As March closed and April began, risk assets caught a massive bid. Investors rushed to buy the dip amid widespread speculation that the US-Iran war was nearing a diplomatic resolution.

Stocks exploded higher, the US Dollar formed a double top (which then failed), and oil prices corrected sharply as the war premium appeared to evaporate.

The April Fool’s Fakeout

Unfortunately, this optimism turned out to be a cruel April Fool's fakeout. By Thursday, the narrative had violently reversed. A hawkish White House address from President Trump completely derailed hopes for peace, reawakening fears of a prolonged conflict and potential ground operations.

Energy markets took the brunt of the panic.

WTI Crude exploded by 14% overnight, flashing up to $114 per barrel before settling back above $110.

The stock market faced severe intraday chaos, gapping significantly lower at the open as algorithms dumped risk, though frantic short-covering later helped major benchmarks finish relatively unchanged. Precious metals also experienced wild volatility as traders scrambled to re-price the escalating conflict.

WTI 4H Chart – April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The week concluded with a curveball, and luckily no one is there to trade it.

The March Non-Farm Payrolls report, released on Good Friday, showed the labor market roaring back to life.

Unemployment dropped to 4.3%, private payrolls surged by an unexpected 186K, and wage growth cooled to +0.2% month-over-month. The report cements the Federal Reserve’s holding stance – Don't expect to see cuts anytime soon.

Stock Markets are closed for the holiday and futures stuck in a highly illiquid, abbreviated session leaving Wall Street was left paralyzed.

Traders are now forced to sit on their hands over a long weekend, balancing robust domestic economic data against the looming threat of military escalation in the Middle East – Watching the highlights of this weekend's action will be mandatory to understand the action next week.

Expect fierce repositioning and wild gaps when the bell finally rings on Monday morning – But real volumes will only return on Tuesday (as the largest players are off for the Easter long-weekend.

Weekly Performance across Asset Classes

Weekly Asset Performance – April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView

This week's action was nothing short of chaotic, with up-and-down swings across virtually all asset classes, leaving a sense of range-bound trajectories as long as clarity doesn't return.

This could replace the prior large downtrends in Metals and Stocks, contingent on the situation not worsening or suddenly improving.

WTI remains the asset to watch to assess the general Market mood – one thing to keep in mind is that there has been some progress this week, but more will be needed for the positive mood to remain.

The Week Ahead – Major Inflation data coming up for the US and EU

Traders will have to get ready for an intense week, with not only macroeconomic data which should start to reflect the first impacts of the war, but also a more erratic Market behavior regarding the war, which seems to be reaching its most confusing stage.

Asia Pacific Markets – RBNZ Rate Decision

Next week's RBNZ Decision meeting will be the main event for APAC Markets, but it could also largely be a non-event, currently priced in at 90% for no change (the other 10% is a small premium for a hike).

Communications for upcoming rate hikes will be closely watched, so keep that in mind as it may reshape the path for the NZD.

For the rest, a few mid-tier releases for Australia and Japan including PMIs for the former, and trade data for the latter.

The Chinese Inflation report could also be a mover for the AUD – with inflation recently bouncing higher, so policymakers will want to see this continue.

Europe and UK Markets – German CPI and Eurozone PPI

This week was big for UK data but next week will be absent of any catalyst for the GBP.

The Euro will however be at the center stage, with the first inflation releases that should contain influences from War with Retail Sales and PPI for the Eurozone on Wednesday, and the German CPI on Friday.

Any large beat in inflation could warrant a safety hike from the ECB at the next meeting! (Currently priced at about 60%).

North American Markets – A heavy week

The US will grab the spotlight again, with high-tier releases spanning across the entire coming week.

Monday will welcome the ISM Services PMI, an interesting release as Services have started to cool down from ever-higher levels (cooler data there will be a sign of an economic turn).

The Minutes from the Mid-March FOMC meeting will also be released on Wednesday (and they have finally become a bit more interesting; look for communications to see what the Fed is watching for decision-making).

Thursday will see the release of Core PCE, expected at 3% once again and hopefully not much higher. If it combines with another huge beat in CPI on Friday (headline expected at 0.9% !!! – Huge impact from rises in Oil prices), hikes could really be back on the table, and that would not be good news for the US Market.

Participants will also be looking closely at the Core release to see how Oil inflation spreads to other products.

For Canada, Tuesday will see the release of the Ivey PMI data (a mover for the Loonie) and the CA Employment report for Friday (that goes without saying).

Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those regarding a potential ground invasion, as they will be the final piece of the puzzle for Market sentiment and Oil prices.

Next Week's High Tier Economic Events

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Safe Trades and enjoy your long weekend! Happy Easter!