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USD/JPY's rally from 139.57 resumed last week but retreated quickly after hitting 157.91. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 153.15 support holds. Break of 157.91 will target 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 135.21).

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3433 attempted to resume last week by breaching 1.2486, but quickly recovered after dipping to 1.2474. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Break of 1.2474 will target 1.2298 cluster support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 medium term are seen as correcting whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. But strong support is expected there to bring rebound to extend the corrective pattern.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. But in any case, outlook is neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds.

USD/CHF's rally from 0.8374 resumed last week but retreated after hitting 0.9020. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside should be contained above 0.8735 support to bring another rally. Above 0.9020 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8374 to 0.8956 from 0.8735 at 0.9095.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.8374 as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6941 accelerated to as low as 0.6198 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.6511 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.6198 will target 0.6169 long term support, and then 138.2% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6074.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006. Firm break of 0.6169 support will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6601) holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, even in case of deeper fall, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.

USD/CAD's up trend continued to as high as 1.4466 last week but retreated after breaching 1.4391 projection level. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.4177 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.4466 and sustained trading above 1.4391 will pave the way to retest 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391 already. Sustained trading above there will pave the way to 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3729) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3418 support holds.

GBP/JPY's rose further to 198.93 last week as corrective pattern from 180.00 extended with another rising leg. As a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 194.04 support holds. Break of 199.79 will target channel resistance (now at 203.09).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it's at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 172.51).

EUR/JPY's rally from 156.16 extended higher last week. The development is in line with the case that corrective pattern from 154.04 is extending with another rising leg. Initial bias stays on the upside for 166.67 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 159.79 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 147.55).

EUR/GBP rebounded ahead of 0.8201 key support again last week but upside was limited below 0.8326 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8326 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8446 structural resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on whether 0.8201 key support (2022 low) is strong enough to complete the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). In any case, medium term outlook will be neutral at best until decisive break of 0.8624 key resistance. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's rally from 1.5963 continued last week and the break of 1.6598 resistance confirmed that correction from 1.7180 has already completed, after defending 1.5995 key support. But as a temporary top was formed at 1.6712, initial bias stays neutral for consolidations first. On the upside, break of 1.6712 will resume the rally from 1.5693 to retest 1.7180 high next.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5995 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6052) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.9417 last week and the strong break of 0.9343 resistance suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9204 has completed already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.9254 support first. Break there will bring retest of 0.9204 low. On the upside, above 0.9340 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is probably in place at 0.9204. More consolidations would be seen above there with risk of stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9481 holds and another fall through 0.9204 to resume larger down trend is in favor.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.