Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9594; (P) 0.9617; (R1) 0.9642; More....

USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 0.9535 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 0.9689 support turned resistance holds, near term outlook remains mildly bearish. Break of 0.9535 will extend the fall from 1.0037 and target a test on 0.9420 low. Nonetheless, firm break of 0.9698 will be the first sign of near term reversal. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.9844 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don't expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3899; (P) 1.3944; (R1) 1.4033; More.....

With 1.3838 minor support intact, intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside. Current rise should target medium term channel resistance at 1.4139. Break will indicate acceleration to 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3651 from 1.3038 at 1.4581 next. On the downside,below 1.3838 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But pullback should be contained above 1.3612 resistance turned support to bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.3835 key resistance level indicates that rebound from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from from 2007 high at 2.1161. In that case, further rise should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. Medium term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.3038 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2226; (P) 1.2248 (R1) 1.2284; More....

EUR/USD is still staying in consolidation below 1.2322 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.2088 support intact, near term outlook remains bullish and another rise is expected. Above 1.2322 will extend the medium term rise to next key fibonacci level at 1.2494/2516. We'd expect strong resistance from there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.2088 will argue that EUR/USD has topped earlier than expected. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1915 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of further rally, we'd be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. That is also close to 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494. Break of 1.1553 support will confirm completion of the rise. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Yen continues today trade as the strongest major currency today as supported by relatively more upbeat BoJ. Dollar is also trying to rebound, in particular against Aussie but is outshone by both Yen and Swiss Franc. Confidence data from Germany is very upbeat but provides little support to Euro. Traders are getting a bit more cautious ahead of ECB rate decision and press conference on Thursday. Meanwhile, Aussie is trading as the weakest one on concern of more weakest in iron ore prices ahead.

German ZEW reviews optimistic outlook for H1 2018

German ZEW economic sentiment rose to 20.4 in January, up from 17.4 and above expectation of 17.9. Current situation gauge rose to 95.2, up from 89.3 and above expectation of 89.5, and hit record high. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment rose to 31.8, up from 29.0, beat expectation of 29.7. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted in the release that "the latest survey results reveal an optimistic outlook for the German economy in the first six months of 2018. With 95.2 out of 100 points, this is the most positive assessment of the current economic situation since the introduction of the survey in December 1991. Private consumption, which was the most important driver of economic growth in 2017, is likely to continue to stimulate growth in the coming six months according to the survey participants. The assessment of the global economic environment in Europe and the USA is also much more favorable than it was at the end of 2017".

BoJ offered slightly more upbeat view

BOJ again voted 8-1 to leave the monetary policies unchanged today. The targets for short- and long-term interest rates stay at -0.1% and around 0%, respectively while the guideline for JGB purchases remains at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. As a ritual since he has joined the Board in September 2017, Goushi Kataoka has dissented again. The central bank has turned more upbeat on the inflation outlook although the members left the GDP growth and inflation forecasts unchanged for fiscal years from 2017 to 2019. At this meeting, the members also voted unanimously to extend for one year new the applications for the fund provisioning measure to achieve certain the goals such as stimulating bank lending and supporting economic growth. More in BOJ Left Policy Rates, QE, And Yield Curve Control Measures Unchanged

CPTPP to be signed in March

The 11 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), formerly Transpacific Partnership (TPP), reached a deal after two days of negotiations in Tokyo. The outstanding issues were finally resolved and legal verification of the agreement was also completed. Singaporean Trade Minister Lim Hng Kiang hailed that "the CPTPP will enhance trade among countries in the Asia-Pacific, resulting in more seamless flows of goods, services, and investment regionally." Japan Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said the agreement will be signed on March 8 and Canada will follow through on that too. The participating countries include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. The US pulled out last year under the Presidency of Donald Trump.

NAFTA re-negotiations underway

The sixth round of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) re-negotiation is underway in Montreal, Canada. Canadian Finance Minister Bill Moreau said that "our goal is to make real progress. We've got some constructive ideas. And we're really focused on how we can improve NAFTA." He added that "NAFTA has been enormously positive for all three countries that have been party to the deal". And, "Canada-U.S. trade has grown hugely over the time of NAFTA. Now it's almost $2 billion every single day, so we have a very strong trading relationship - 9 million U.S. jobs rely on trade with Canada, so we see it as something to be improved upon, and that's why we're working constructively towards that end."

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2226; (P) 1.2248 (R1) 1.2284; More....

EUR/USD is still staying in consolidation below 1.2322 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.2088 support intact, near term outlook remains bullish and another rise is expected. Above 1.2322 will extend the medium term rise to next key fibonacci level at 1.2494/2516. We'd expect strong resistance from there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.2088 will argue that EUR/USD has topped earlier than expected. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1915 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of further rally, we'd be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. That is also close to 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494. Break of 1.1553 support will confirm completion of the rise. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Economic Indicators Update

The FTSE100 is showing double bullish confluence close to D L3, and D L4 supports. We can spot the W pattern that is also the head of a bigger - inverted head and shoulders pattern. 7710 zone could spike the price to the upside and continuation of bullish move should happen if the price breaks inverted SHS double top - 7748. Targets are 7755, 7764 and possibly 7771. Only a 4h close or h1 momentum below W L3 7699 might negate bullish scenario. In that case look for a retest of 7683.

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

Crude oil is slightly flattening but appears ready to ascend. Hourly resistance is given at 64.89 (15/01/2018 high). Strong support is given at 60.93 (05/01/2018 low). Expected to keep increasing as demand seems very strong.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness is very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum since June 2017. Support lies at 42.20 (16/11/2016) while new resistance point is located at 77.83 (20/11/2014). Crude oil is trading largely above its 200 DMA.

Silver is continuing its bounce moves to slightly higher ends after a sharp correction (12/08/2017 low at 15.61). The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 17.43 (15/01/2018 high). A key resistance stands at 18.21 (08/09/2017 high). An hourly support lies at 16.80 (reaction low).

In the long-term, the trend is rather negative. Further downside is very likely. The pair is trading at its 200 DMA. Resistance is located at 21.58 (10/07/2014 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold recovers from recent traders' profit taking and keeps increasing. Hourly support is given at 1306 (04/01/2018 low). Resistance located at 1345 (15/01/2018 high) is attainable. The commodity is targeting a strong resistance point at 1357 (08/09/2017 high).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary in order to confirm it. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Bitcoin is weakening and approaches its 17/01/2018 collapse mark. Hourly support at 10'775 (22/12/2017) is now broken. New hourly support is located at 9'185 (17/01/2018 low). In the short-term, the technical structure suggests a continued bearish momentum. Expected to show further decline.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth but also presented important downturns. There is decent likelihood that the currency could stabilize between 9'000 - 12'000 in 2018. Bitcoin is trading far above its 200 DMA (5K+ gap).

EUR/CHF is trading slightly higher. The pair is trading between support at 1.1710 (19/01/2018 low) and resistance at 1.1832 (15/01/2018 high). Expected to show further short-term downside moves.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE programm is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).