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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7976; (P) 0.8039; (R1) 0.8093; More...

AUD/USD is still engaging in choppy corrective trading in range of 0.7807/8124. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But still, with 0.7807 support intact, near term outlook stays bearish and another rise is expected. Break of 0.8124 will turn bias to the upside and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7328 key support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.36 %, Shanghai Composite rose 0.14 %, Hang Seng fell 0.16 %, ASX 200 down 0.85 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1301.40 (-1.13 %), Silver at $17.09 (-1.36 %), WTI Oil at $50.66(-0.06 %), Brent Oil at $56.16 (-0.23 %)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.26, UK 10-year yield at 1.35, German 10-year yield at 0.44

News & Data:

• (GBP) Retail Sales m/m 1.0 % vs 0.2 % expected
• (USD) Existing Home Sales 5.35 M vs 5.46 M expected
• (USD) Crude Oil Inventories 4.6 M vs 2.8 M expected
• (USD) Federal Funds Rate <1.25 % vs <1.25 % expected
• (NZD) GDP q/q 0.8 % vs 0.8 % expected
• (JPY) BOJ Policy Rate -0.10 % vs -0.10 % expected
• Fed keeps rate steady, to start portfolio drawdown in October- RTRS
• U.S. home sales hit 12-month low, Harvey weighs on Houston- RTRS

Markets Update:

Asian equity markets were mixed early on Thursday in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s overnight statements on policy and economic projections. However, Japan was again a standout opening in green whereas, Australia underperformed as metal prices fell and utilities stocks slid.

USD/JPY had traded up strongly in the US after the FOMC and is currently seen trading steadily around 112.46. The Yen lost 0.2% against the USD, continuing its 0.6 percent drop on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan announced an as expected decision, no change at all to policy.

AUDUSD managed to break below the round number 0.80 against the US Dollar early in Asian session today. The Aussie is currently seen trading around 0.7980 after losing 0.4 percent against the US Dollar. The New Zealand dollar is currently seen trading around 0.7315 as the Kiwi lost 0.5 percent against the US Dollar. The kiwi has been sensitive to opinion polls ahead of an election this weekend

EUR/USD is currently seen trading steadily around 1.8880. The Euro had lost 0.9 percent against the US Dollar yesterday. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies rose 0.2 percent and is currently valued at 92.54

Upcoming Events:

• 06:30 GMT – (JPY) BOJ Press Conference
• 08:30 GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
• 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m
• 12:30 GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
• 12:30 GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2211; (P) 1.2301; (R1) 1.2413; More....

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.2061 extended higher. But it's still limited by 1.2412 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. . On the one hand, we'd remain cautious on strong support from 1.2049 key fibonacci level to bring sustainable rebound. On the other hand, break of 1.2412 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. Firm break of 1.2049 key fibonacci level will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.1424.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration is raising the chance that whole long term rise from 0.9406 (2011 low), and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) is completed at 1.4689. Focus is now on 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. As long as this level holds, we'd still favor that case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. However, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall fro 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.29% against the USD and closed at 0.8030.

LME Copper prices rose 0.4% or $28.0/MT to $6520.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 2.7% or $56.5/MT to $2164.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.8003, with the AUD trading 0.34% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7959, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7914. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8075, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8146.

Moving ahead, a speech by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor, Philip Lowe, due in a while, will be eyed by investors.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.87% against the USD and closed at 1.1891.

On the macro front, Germany's producer price index climbed more-than-expected by 2.6% on an annual basis in August, compared to a rise of 2.3% in the previous month, while markets were anticipating the index to gain 2.5%.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies, after the US Federal Reserve (Fed), in a surprise move, indicated that it expects one more interest rate hike before the year-end.

The Fed, at its latest monetary policy meeting, left its key interest rate unchanged between 1.00% and 1.25% and announced a plan to start unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet next month. In a statement accompanying the decision, the central bank offered a broadly optimistic view on the current economic conditions and signalled that it was still eyeing a possible third rate hike this year. However, the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, stated that a fall in inflation this year remained a mystery and added that the US central bank stands ready to change the interest rate outlook if needed.

Meanwhile, in its latest Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed forecasted the US economy to grow 2.4% this year, faster than a projection of 2.2% made in June. However, the central bank also lowered its inflation projection to be 1.9% by the end of 2018, slightly below its earlier forecast of 2.0%.

On the data front, existing home sales in the US unexpectedly fell 1.7% on monthly basis to a level of 5.35 million units in August, declining to its lowest level in a year, amid a shortage of properties and a sharp drop in Houston home purchases due to Hurricane Harvey. In the previous month, existing home sales recorded a level of 5.44 million, while markets had envisaged for an advance to a level of 5.45 million.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1883, with the EUR trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1819, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1755. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1990, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2097.

Going ahead, market participants will closely monitor a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi as well as the release of the Euro-zone's flash consumer confidence index for September, both due later in the day. Also, the ECB's economic bulletin report, slated to release in a few hours, will be on investors' radar. Moreover, the US initial jobless claims and leading indicators data for August, scheduled to release later today, will attract a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1826; (P) 1.1929 (R1) 1.1998; More...

EUR/USD dropped sharply overnight but it's staying in range of 1.1822/2091 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. The development is raising chance of a head and should top reversal pattern (ls: 1.2069, h: 1.2091, rs: 1.2029). Break of 1.1822/1837 support zone should confirm near term reversal. In the case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside through 1.1661 support. EUR/USD should then correct whole rise from 1.0569 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. However, rebound from 1.1822/1837 and break of 1.2029 will resume the larger up trend to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall fro 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP slightly declined against the USD and closed at 1.3506.

On the economic front, data showed that UK's retail sales jumped 1.0% MoM and surged to a 4-month high in August, suggesting a solid consumer spending and brightening chances of the Bank of England hiking interest rates in the near future. In the prior month, retail sales had risen by a revised 0.6%, while markets had anticipated for a gain of 0.2%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3495, with the GBP trading 0.08% lower from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3413, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3331. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3617, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3739.

Moving ahead, UK's BBA mortgage approvals and public sector net borrowing data, both for August, slated to release in a few hours, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.75% against the JPY and closed at 112.36, after the US Fed hinted that it would consider a further tightening of monetary policy this year.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.47, with the USD trading 0.1% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Earlier today, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as widely expected, left its key interest rate steady at -0.1% and pledged to continue its asset-buying programme. Further, the central bank maintained its optimistic view of the economy, signalling its confidence that a solid recovery will eventually push inflation towards its 2.0% target without additional stimulus.

On the macro front, Japan's all industry activity index dropped 0.1% on a monthly basis in July, meeting market expectations. In the prior month, the index had recorded a revised rise of 0.2%.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.51, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.04, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.61.

Looking ahead, investors anxiously await for comments from the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, to get cues on the central bank's monetary policy outlook.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.81% against the CHF and closed at 0.9700.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9708, with the USD trading 0.08% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9626, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9544. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9754, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9800.

Ahead in the day, market participants will focus on Switzerland’s SECO economic forecast report and trade balance data for August.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.32% against the CAD and closed at 1.2330.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2337, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2228, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2119. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2418, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2499.

In absence of major macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investors will look forward to global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.