Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9391; (P) 0.9419; (R1) 0.9450; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 0.9331 will resume the fall from 0.9579 towards 0.9209 low. On the upside, break of 0.9506 will turn intraday bias to the upside for 0.9579 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9928 is seen as part of the long term down trend. Repeated rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 0.9421) keeps outlook bearish for breaking through 0.9209 low at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will confirm medium term bottoming at 0.9209 and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.9928 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0809; (P) 1.0857; (R1) 1.0883; More...

EUR/USD stays below 1.0904 temporary top despite today's rebound, intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0904 will resume the rebound from 1.0760 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0941). On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740 will extend the fall from 1.1213 to 1.0601 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 (2023 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low), with fall from 1.1213 as the third leg. Downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404, to bring up trend resumption at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.12; (P) 152.61; (R1) 153.42; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, and more consolidations would be see. Another rise is expected with 151.44 support intact. Sustained trading above of 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 151.44 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.07).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2875; (P) 1.2927; (R1) 1.2970; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen below 1.3042 resistance. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3042 resistance holds. Below 1.2842 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 61.8% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.3042 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, considering mildly bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.3433 already. Price actions from there are seen as correction to whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8648; (P) 0.8679; (R1) 0.8730; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral again with today's retreat, but further rally is expected as long as 0.8631 support holds. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698 will argue that fall from 0.9223 has completed after defending 0.8332 low. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8899 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8631 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8613).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3918; (P) 1.3939; (R1) 1.3974; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first with current retreat. A temporary top was formed at 1.3958, ahead of 1.3976 resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.3890 minor support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.3712). On the upside, decisive break of 1.3976 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, sideway consolidation pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) might still extend further. While another decline cannot be ruled out, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Decisive break of 1.3976 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6545; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6583; More...

AUD/USD recovers further today as consolidation from 0.6536 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point, and further decline remains expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6692) holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 will target 0.6348 support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

Dollar took a notable downturn in the Asian session, and picking up downward momentum too, following a weekend poll that showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris edging ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa.

Although Harris’s 47% to 44% lead falls within the 3.4% margin of error, this development marks a significant shift in a state that Trump won by considerable margins in both his previous campaigns—over 9 points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020.

The market interpretation of a Harris lead versus a Trump win are starkly different. Some analysts suggest that a Trump victory, particularly with unified control of Congress, would likely be bullish for Dollar. A unified GOP government could drive a sell-off in Treasuries, pushing yields higher and boosting the greenback.

On the other hand, a Harris victory paired with a split Congress could prompt an unwinding of “Trump trades,” as markets would likely adjust expectations away from pro-growth fiscal policies that would otherwise drive Dollar strength.

Amid Dollar’s retreat, Yen is currently the strongest performer in early trading, followed by Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar ranked as the second weakest, trailing the greenback, with Sterling not far behind. Euro and Swiss Franc are holding middle ground.

For now, Yen is leading charge in the background of Dollar weakness, and trades as the strongest one for the day so far. Aussie and Kiwi follow as next strongest. Canadian Dollar is sitting as second worst next to the greenback, while Sterling follows. Euro and Swiss Franc are positioning in the middle.

Technically, its not unreasonable for USD/JPY to find resistance and retreat after hitting 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, rise from 139.57 will remain in favor to continue as long as 55 D EMA (now at 149.06). However, sustained break of the 55 D EMA will argue that the near term trend has already reversed.

In Asia, Japan is on holiday. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.22%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.54%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.55%.

RBNZ flags geopolitical risks as key threat to New Zealand’s financial stability

RBNZ highlighted significant geopolitical risks as a major concern for New Zealand’s financial stability in a pre-release of findings from its upcoming Financial Stability Report. Key threats stem from global tensions involving Russia, China, and the Middle East, which RBNZ may incorporate into next year’s solvency stress test.

RBNZ noted that in some scenarios, “global supply chains were disrupted,” triggering renewed inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates. The report mentions a “more extreme scenario” involving a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region with one or more of New Zealand’s key trading partners. This may allude to risks of a major disruption if China attempts to assert territorial claims in the South China Sea or to use force in the Taiwan Strait.

Kerry Watt, RBNZ’s Director of Financial Stability Assessment & Strategy, commented on the increased “concern about geopolitical tension,” emphasizing that “as a small open economy, dependent on international trade and investment, geopolitical risks are clearly relevant to our financial system. Their potential impacts cannot be underestimated."

Oil prices edge up as OPEC+ delays output increase

Oil prices saw a modest uptick during the Asian session following OPEC+’s announcement to delay a planned increase in oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day by one month. On Sunday, the group also reiterated the members' "collective commitment to achieve full conformity" with the established output targets.

This adjustment comes as part of OPEC+’s broader strategy, which agreed in June, to gradually restore output in controlled monthly increments after significant cuts over the past two years. Before Sunday’s decision, the plan was to start unwinding the 2.2 million bpd cut beginning December 2024, with further increases scheduled into the next year.

Technically, for the near term, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, WTI could have formed a short term bottom at 67.14. Break of 72.85 resistance will support this case and bring stronger rally back towards 78.87 resistance, as part of the sideway pattern from 65.63 low.

Nevertheless, there is no clear sign that the down trend from 87.84 has completed. As long as 78.87 resistance holds, another fall through 65.63 is still in favor after the consolidation pattern from there completes.

High stakes week with US Election, Fed, BoE and RBA rate decisions

As the US presidential election takes center stage this week, global financial markets are gearing up for heightened volatility. However, the election is not the sole event commanding investor attention. RBA, BoE and Fed will all hold rate meetings, while BoJ and BoC are set to release minutes from their latest sessions. Key economic indicators, including the US ISM Services PMI, employment data from Canada and New Zealand, and China’s Caixin PMI Services, could also sway market sentiment.

On Tuesday, RBA is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.35%. Recent progress in disinflation, highlighted by Australia's Q3 CPI, has brought the prospect of monetary easing closer. The nation's four major banks—Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac, National Australia Bank, and ANZ—are now forecasting the first rate cut in February 2025. The central bank's accompanying statement and updated economic projections will be scrutinized for signals supporting this outlook. Regarding the pace of future rate reductions, CBA, Westpac, and NAB anticipate a 25 bps cut each quarter throughout next year, while ANZ predicts three 25 bps cuts over the course of 2025.

BoE is widely anticipated to lower its Bank Rate by 25 bps to 4.75% on Thursday. This move may mark the final rate adjustment for the year. According to a recent Reuters poll, 46 out of 72 economists expect no further changes at the December meeting, with the remaining 26 forecasting another 25 bps reduction. The Labour government's recently announced budget, perceived as inflationary due to increased spending and borrowing, supports BoE's cautious stance. Investors will focus on the central bank's statement, the voting pattern among Monetary Policy Committee members, and the updated economic projections to gauge future policy direction.

Fed will announce its rate decision on Thursday, deviating from its usual Wednesday schedule. A 25 bps cut is widely expected, bringing the federal funds rate to target range of 4.50-4.75%. Another similar reduction is anticipated in December. However, the policy path for 2025 remains less certain. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to emphasize that while the direction of monetary policy is toward easing, the pace will remain data-dependent. Market participants will have to wait for the next meeting to gain more insights from updated economic projections.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Eurozone PMI manufacturing final, Sentix investor confidence; US factory orders.
• Tuesday: Japan monetary base; China Caixin PMI services; RBA rate decision; Swiss unemployment rate; France industria production; UK PMI services final; Canada trade balance; US trade balance, ISM services.
• Wednesday: New Zealand employment; BoJ minutes; Eurozone PMI services final, PPI; UK PMI construction; Canada Ivey PMI, BoC summary of deliberations.
• Thursday: Japan average cash earnings; Australia goods trade balance; China trade balance; Germany industrial production, trade balance; Swiss Foreign currency reserves; Eurozone retail sales; BoE rate decision; US jobless claims, non-farm productivity, FOMC rate decision.
• Friday: Japan household spending, leading indicators; France trade balanace; Swiss SECO consumer climate; Canada employment; US U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6545; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6583; More...

AUD/USD recovers further today as consolidation from 0.6536 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point, and further decline remains expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6692) holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 will target 0.6348 support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD struggled to recover above the 1.0900 resistance zone.
• A connecting trend line is forming with resistance at 1.0900 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is signaling a bearish bias below the 1.3050 resistance.
• Gold corrected gains and traded below $2,750.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started an upside correction above the 1.0820 level against the US Dollar. EUR/USD even climbed above 1.0880 but failed near 1.0900.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1208 swing high to the 1.0761 low. However, the bears were active near 1.0900 and the pair remained well below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The pair is again declining and trading below 1.0880. On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.0780 level. The next key support sits near the 1.0760 level.

Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.0720 level. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.0900 level. The first key resistance is near the 1.0920 level. A close above the 1.0920 level could set the tone for another increase.

The next major resistance could be 1.0950, above which the price could accelerate higher toward the 1.0980 resistance.

Looking at Gold, the price started a downside correction after trading to a new all-time high and traded below $2,740.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for Oct 2024 – Forecast 45.9, versus 45.9 previous.
• German Manufacturing PMI for Oct 2024 – Forecast 42.6, versus 42.6 previous.

Oil prices saw a modest uptick during the Asian session following OPEC+’s announcement to delay a planned increase in oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day by one month. On Sunday, the group also reiterated the members' "collective commitment to achieve full conformity" with the established output targets.

This adjustment comes as part of OPEC+’s broader strategy, which agreed in June, to gradually restore output in controlled monthly increments after significant cuts over the past two years. Before Sunday’s decision, the plan was to start unwinding the 2.2 million bpd cut beginning December 2024, with further increases scheduled into the next year.

Technically, for the near term, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, WTI could have formed a short term bottom at 67.14. Break of 72.85 resistance will support this case and bring stronger rally back towards 78.87 resistance, as part of the sideway pattern from 65.63 low.

Nevertheless, there is no clear sign that the down trend from 87.84 has completed. As long as 78.87 resistance holds, another fall through 65.63 is still in favor after the consolidation pattern from there completes.