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EUR/USD dipped to 1.0838 last week but rebounded strongly since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Overall, near term outlook is unchanged. Choppy rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD suggests short term topping at 1.1020 already. Hence, we'd favoring another fall. Break of 1.0838 will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0770). Break there will argue that the corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed and target 1.0569 support for confirmation. Break of 1.1020 will extend the rise but we'll look for reversal signal again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We'd expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds. However, firm break of 1.1298 should now confirm long term reversal.

USD/JPY's rally extended to 114.36 last week bur retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidation first. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 112.08 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 108.12 to 114.36 at 111.97) and bring rally resumption. We're holding on to the view that corrective fall from 118.65 is completed with three wave down to 108.12. Above 114.36 will target 115.49 resistance first. Break there should resume whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2987 last week but dipped sharply since then. Nonetheless, it's staying above 1.2830 minor support. Hence, initial bias is neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2830 will indicate short term topping. In such case, intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2614 resistance turned support first. Overall, price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a corrective pattern. There, in case of another rise, we'd start to look for reversal signal again above 1.2987.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532.

USD/CHF rose to 1.0099 last week but failed to break through 1.0107 resistance. The sharp fall on Friday raised some question on the bullish outlook but it's staying above 0.9977 minor support so far. Hence initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.0107 resistance will be in line with the view that correction from 1.0342 has completed at 0.9812. In such case, further rally would be seen to retest 1.0342 high. However, break of 0.9977 will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9858 first.

In the bigger picture, we're still maintaining that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we'd now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.

The long term outlook in USD/CHF stays a bit mixed for the moment. But in case of another medium term fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

AUD/USD dropped further to 0.7328 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation above 0.7328 first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.7555 resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7382 will target 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence we'll be cautious on strong support from0.7144/58 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.7555 will argue that fall from 0.7748 is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8115) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3793 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week. We're seeing choppy rise from 1.2460 as a corrective move. Hence, in case of another rally, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.3838 fibonacci level to bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.3534 resistance turned support will suggest that rise from 1.2968 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for medium term channel (now at 1.3176).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and would end at around 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. Nonetheless, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

GBP/JPY rose further to 148.09 last week but lost momentum ahead of 148.42 resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top is in place. Initial bias is neutral this week for more consolidation. Deeper pull back might be seen. But in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 143.31 and bring rise resumption. Break of 148.42 will target 150.42 long term fibonacci level first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 135.58 at 161.64.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

In the longer term picture, based on the impulsive structure of the decline from 195.86 to 122.36, such fall should not be completed yet. But we will now pay close attention to the structure of the rise from 122.36 to determine whether it's a corrective move, or an impulsive move. That would decide whether a break of 116.83 low would be seen.

EUR/JPY edged higher to 124.53 last week but lost momentum after breaching 124.08 resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top could be in place. Initial bias is neutral stays neutral this week first. Break of 122.92 minor support will bring deeper pull back towards 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 124.53 at 120.82 and bring rise resumption. We're holding on to the view that whole rally from 109.03 is resuming. Break of 124.53 will target 126.09 key resistance next. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. We're not seeing any sign of an established long term trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong support at 94.11 in case of another fall. Also, there could be strong resistance at 149.76 in case of a medium term rise.

EUR/GBP dipped to 0.8383 last week but quickly recovered. The corrective structure of fall from 0.8529 to 0.8383 suggests that rebound from 0.8312 is still in progress. Break of 0.8508 resistance should confirm and bring stronger rise.

Initial bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8508 will extend the rebound from 0.8312 to 0.8786 resistance next. Further break there will target 0.9304 high. On the downside, below 0.8383 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8303/8312 support zone instead. Overall, EUR/GBP is staying in the corrective pattern from 0.9304 which will extend for a while.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. In case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 (2008 high) is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935 (2015 low). Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the correction from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation below 1.4909 last week and recent rebound lost momentum. But overall outlook is unchanged. That is, whole correction from 1.6587 has completed at 1.3624 already after defending 1.3671 key support level. Further rise is expected to next fibonacci level at 1.5455 after consolidation completes.

Initial bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral this week first. Consolidation from 1.4909 could extend and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 1.4442/4649 support to bring rise resumption. Above 1.4909 will extend recent rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.