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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6207; (P) 1.6237; (R1) 1.6275; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 1.6185 will bring deeper fall to retest 1.6002 low. On the upside, however, above 1.6351 will resume the rebound from 1.6002 to 38.2% of 1.7180 to 1.6002 at 1.6452.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9375; (P) 0.9397; (R1) 0.9413; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's still bounded in converging range. On the upside, break of 0.9506 resistance should resume whole rebound from 0.9209 through 0.9579 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9332 will resume the fall from 0.9579 towards 0.9209 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

• NZDUSD hovers beneath 200-day SMA
• Stochastic and RSI maintain downside momentum

NZDUSD has found strong resistance near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6090, diving towards the previous bottom of 0.6050.

According to technical oscillators, they both confirm the recent bearish structure. The stochastic is heading south, ready to post a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines, while the RSI is pointing slightly down below the neutral threshold of 50.

Diving further, the price could tumble until the 0.5975 support before testing the lows from August at 0.5875-0.5850.

Otherwise, an attempt above the 200-day SMA could send the bulls toward the 50- and then the 20-day SMA at 0.6170 and 0.6200, respectively. Rising above the SMAs, the price could find a real struggle near the 15-month peak of 0.6370.

All in all, NZDUSD has started a bearish wave in the preceding couple of weeks with the momentum oscillators suggesting more declines.

Short Term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) suggests that the Index formed a 5 swing sequence since 8.5.2024 low. Since 5 swing Elliott Wave sequence is a motive sequence, it favors further upside. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 20025.25 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 18339.75. Wave 3 higher ended at 20538 and dips in wave 4 ended at 19818 as 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 20056 and wave ((b)) ended at 20331.75. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 19891.58 which completed wave 4 in higher degree.

The Index has turned higher in wave 5 with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 20267.25 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 19902.50. Wave (iii) higher ended at 20482.75 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 20314.75. Final leg wave (v) ended at 20680 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) pullback is proposed complete at 20254 with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Near term, as far as pivot at 19819.58 low stays intact, the Index has scope to extend higher within wave 5.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

NQ_F Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETo0j_66EUo

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3750; (P) 1.3795; (R1) 1.3819; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen below 1.3837 temporary top. But downside should be contained above 1.3646 resistance turned support. On the upside, above 1.3837 will resume the rally from 1.3418 to 1.3946/76 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, sideway consolidation pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) might still extend further. While another decline cannot be ruled out, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6690; (P) 0.6711; (R1) 0.6726; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6941 resumed by breaking through 0.6701 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6621 support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 0.6348 support next. On the upside, above 0.6758 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6340 at 0.6941 will target 138.2% projection at 0.7179. However, break of 0.6621 support will argue that rise from 0.6269 has completed and bring deeper fall back to 0.6269/6348 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.74; (P) 149.33; (R1) 149.80; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 149.97 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 146.48 resistance turned support intact. Above 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8606; (P) 0.8623; (R1) 0.8638; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.8374 short term bottom should target 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 0.9223 has completed after defending 0.8332 low. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8899 next. On the downside, below 0.8557 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0876; (P) 1.0897; (R1) 1.0911; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.1213 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740 next. On the upside, above 1.0953 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.1274 resistance suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1274 (2023 high) is not completed yet. Instead, decline from 1.1213 might be another falling leg. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0877) will validate this case, and bring deeper fall towards 1.0447 support again. But downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404.

Markets

Dutch chipmaker ASML sent shockwaves through the broader equity market yesterday. In its earnings report that it accidentally published one day ahead of schedule, Europe’s high-profile tech company cut the outlook for next year amid far less orders than investors expected. The EuroStoxx50 fell of a cliff after word from the economy-sensitive company got out, eventually tumbling about 2%. US stock markets ate the dust, the chip sector and broader tech in particular. The Nasdaq slipped around 1%. Asian stocks this morning lose territory in most cases but recovered from intraday lows. Chinese shares flirt with the green ahead of tomorrow’s news conference by the country’s housing minister. Long-term US yields were pressured as another sharp drop in oil prices capped the recent rise of inflation expectations. A disappointing NY manufacturing index (-11.9 vs +3.6 expected, from 11.5) and the risk-off resulted in losses of more than 9 bps (30-yr) eventually. The front end barely budged on any of the aforementioned triggers, suggesting markets are comfortable with current Fed pricing as we head into the November 5 US elections. German rates fell 4.7-5.4 bps across the curve. The USD eked out additional technical gains. EUR/USD broke below the 1.10 neckline of the double top formation earlier this month and slipped sub 1.0907 (50% retracement of the 2024 YtD low-high) yesterday. The 1.08 area still looks to be its short-term destination with the journey unhindered by today’s empty economic calendar. USD/JPY’s rally ran into resistance around the 150 lever. After a strong labour market report yesterday that pushed EUR/GBP back towards the YtD lows, UK inflation numbers this morning do the exact opposite. The pair jumps back higher (0.836) after the headline price level stabilized on a monthly basis to be 1.7% higher y/y. It’s the first sub 2% reading since April 2021 and fell short of a 1.9% consensus estimate. Underlying gauges such as core inflation (3.2%, down from 3.6%) and services inflation (4.9%, down from 5.6%) missed the bar for 3.4% and 5.2% respectively. Below-consensus PPIs topped it off. Bank of England governor recently called for a more activist approach in monetary easing, provided inflation continues to decelerate. Market importance of today’s numbers therefore outweigh that of yesterday’s. A 25 bps November cut is priced in.

News & Views

Inflation in New-Zealand dropped to 2.2% Y/Y in Q3 from 3.3% in Q2. It was the first time since March 2021 that annual inflation returned within the 1-3% target band of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. ‘Prices are still rising, but not as much as previously recorded’, consumer prices manager Nicola Growden of Statistics New Zealand said. Consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous quarter (was 0.4% in Q2), but this was still slightly below the 0.7% consensus estimate. Higher rent prices were the biggest contributor to annual inflation, up 4.5%. Price for local authority rates and payments increased by 12.2%. They were responsible for half of the quarterly 0.6% increase. Pharmaceutical prices increased 17% Q/Q. Tradables goods’ prices declined -0.2% Q/Q and -1.6% Y/Y. Non-tradeables rose 1.3% Q/Q and 4.9% Y/Y. RBNZ expected inflation at 2.3% in its August monetary policy statement. Inflation returning to target probably will convince the RBNZ that it can further reduce policy restrictiveness in order to support poor growth. Markets discount another 50 bps reduction at the November 27 meeting. Some even see a chance of a 75 bps step (35%). The kiwi dollar continues to trade in the defensive this morning at NZD/USD 0.606.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York yesterday published its survey of consumer expectations. Consumers’ inflation expectations are mixed over the three horizons. Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and rose to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. Expectations on the labour market improved. The probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased to 20.4% from 19.1% percent and the perceived probability of finding a job in the event of job loss increased to 52.7% from 52.3%. Year-ahead household income and spending growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0% and 4.9% respectively. Perceptions and expectations of credit access improved compared to a year ago. However, the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased to 14.2 % from 13.6%, the highest reading of the series since April 2020.