Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.50; (P) 114.94; (R1) 115.48; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.51/115.61 and intraday bias remains neutral. The choppy decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. Break of 115.61 resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance. On the downside, below 112.51 will extend such decline but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0660; (P) 1.0693 (R1) 1.0727; More.....

EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.0588 minor support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Price actions from 1.0339 are seen as a corrective move. Break of 1.0588 will indicate that such rise is completed and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0339 low. In case of extension, upside should be limited by 1.0872 resistance.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Dollar reversed earlier loss and trades higher in early US session. Traders are turning their eyes from the unrests and protests regarding US president Donald Trump's immigration ban executive orders. Instead the focuses are back on economic data and the anticipate of FOMC announcement later in the week. Released from US, personal income rose 0.3% in December while spending rose 0.5%. Headline PCE rose 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy. Core PCE rose 0.1% mom, 1.7% yoy. In particular, the upward movement in core PCE should affirm the case for Fed to continue policy accommodation later this year.

ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said together that the central bank will have "better information" for making a decision about the end of the asset purchase program "in summer". There has been talk of stimulus exit recently. In particular, executive board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said last week that she was "optimistic that we can soon turn to the question of an exit" and ECB must "get ready for better times."

Released from Eurozone, business climate dropped to 0.77 in January. Economic confidence rose to 108.2. Industrial confidence rose to 0.8. Services confidence rose to 13.5. Consumer confidence was finalized at -4.7. German CPI dropped -0.6% mom, rose 1.9% yoy in January, below expectation of -0.5% mom, 2.0% yoy. Also from Europe, Swiss KOF leading indicator dropped to 101.7 in January.

BoJ rate decision will be the main focus in upcoming Asian session. The central bank is expected to keep interest rate unchanged. It announced to increase purchases of 5-10 years bonds to JPY 450b, from JPY 410b previously, last week, under the yield curve control framework. Released earlier today, Japan retail sales rose 0.6% yoy in December, below expectation of 1.6% yoy. New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -41m in December.

NZD/JPY faced some resistance from 83.36 in December in pulled back. The correction was held well above medium term support level at 77.68 and thus maintaining bullishness. The cross is indeed back pressing 83.36 resistance now. Overall, the correction from 94.01 (2014 high) was completed last year at 68.88. Rise from here is a medium term move at the same degree as the fall fro 94.01. Thus, sustained trading above 83.36 will target 94.01 high. We'll stay medium term bullish in the cross as long as 77.68 holds.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0660; (P) 1.0693 (R1) 1.0727; More.....

EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.0588 minor support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Price actions from 1.0339 are seen as a corrective move. Break of 1.0588 will indicate that such rise is completed and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0339 low. In case of extension, upside should be limited by 1.0872 resistance.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

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USD/JPY is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 114.60. On the release front, Japanese retail sales posted a gain of 0.6%, well short of the estimate of 1.6%. On Monday, Japan releases Household Spending, with the markets bracing for a decline of 0.8%. The US will publish Pending Homes Sales, with the estimate standing at 1.6%. Later in the day, the Bank of Japan will set interest rates for January. No change is expected from the current rate of -0.10%.

The markets had predicted that US economic growth would soften in the fourth quarter, and Advance GDP fell short of the estimate. The economy expanded 1.9%, shy of the estimate of 2.1%. Business investment and consumer spending remains solid and should continue into 2017. However, Trump's protectionist rhetoric and action, which saw tensions escalate with Mexico last week, could cloud the bright picture for the US economy.

Donald Trump has just started his new position, but he has already signed a host of controversial executive orders which have been condemned both domestically and abroad. Trump has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and declared he will reopen the NAFTA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. He has also ordered work to begin on a wall with Mexico and banned immigrants from seven Moslem countries. Trump's unconventional and disjointed approach to international politics and trade could have major ramifications on global trade and could lead to financial instability in global markets, triggering volatility in the currency markets. Just a few days before being sworn in as president, Trump stated that the US dollar was "too strong", blaming a weak Chinese currency. Predictably, the greenback lost ground after Trump's remarks. Still, Trump's shock election win in November has boosted the US dollar, with USD/JPY soaring 8.3% during that time.

The BoJ has shied away from tinkering with interest rates, as the current level of 0.10% has been in place since January 2016. No change is expected on Monday, but the bank could change its tune if the dollar breaks above the 120 line. In early 2016, when the yen was trading above 120, Japanese officials warned against what they termed "currency manipulations" and threatened to intervene in order to boost the yen's value. This led to a public backlash from US officials as fears of a currency war escalated. If the yen continues to weaken and Japan again warns about intervention, we could see some friction between the two countries, especially under a Trump administration that doesn't appear hesitant to butt heads with its trading partners.

Monday January 30: Five things the markets are talking about

Investors are now beginning to fear that the biggest threat to global markets stability is if Trump continues down the path of protectionism without focusing on economic policies.

Reason enough why many investors are expected to proceed with caution, limiting their risk appetite, at least until they can get a better handle on Trumps next move.

It's not campaign rhetoric any more - capital markets are facing heightened geopolitical and trade risks after U.S President Trump's executed an executive order last Friday to halt the immigration process from seven predominantly Muslim nations.

From an economic and monetary policy standpoint, this week should be volatile. The trifecta of central banks - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) - will announce their respective monetary policy decisions. None are expected to change lending rates, though the Fed's statement on Wednesday (2pm EST) will be analyzed for any reading on Trump's impact on the U.S economy.

Despite a holiday-shorted week in Asia, it's also a heavy week on the economic data front with Friday's U.S non-farm payroll (NFP) for January dominating.

1. Global equities see red on the back of uncertainty

Equities in Europe, Japan and Australia dropped, while markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam were among those closed for holidays.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares, ex-Japan, fell -0.4% in holiday-thin trade. Aussie shares closed down -0.9%, weighed by the tech sector, while Japan's Nikkei was down -0.5% as the demand for safe-haven yen (¥114.57) weighed on exporters.

In Europe, equities are trading sharply lower, led by financial across the board. Energy, commodity and mining stocks are also lower, but currently mixed in the FTSE 100.

U.S equity futures are trading in the 'red' (-0.3%).

Indices: Stoxx50 -0.9% at 3,273, FTSE -0.9% at 7,121, DAX -0.8% at 11,724, CAC-40 -1.0% at 4,791, IBEX-35 -1.0% at 9,413, FTSE MIB -2.2% at 18,907, SMI -0.7% at 8,320, S&P 500 Futures -0.3%

2. Oil slides as strong U.S. drilling activity

Oil prices start the week on the back foot with news of an uptick in U.S. drilling activity negating producers efforts to comply with a deal to produce less in an attempt to support prices.

According to Baker Hughes data, the number of active U.S. oilrigs jumped to the highest since November 2015 last week.

Brent crude futures prices are down -25c at +$55.26 a barrel, while U.S. light crude (WTI) futures have slipped -8c to +$53.09.

Note: Oil prices have remained above the psychological $50 a barrel since the OPEC deal in November - this is incentivizing drillers in low-cost U.S. shale to ramp up activity.

Gold prices are higher (+0.22% to $1,193.88 per ounce) ahead of the U.S open, supported by a weaker dollar and investor uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. policy.

Gold bulls believe that the U.S Presidents protectionist statements and a lack of detail on his economic policy will continue to provide bullion support on any pullbacks.

3. Euro sovereign yields on the rise

With the ECB wanting to see inflation below, but close to +2% continues to pressure European debt prices, especially German bunds, who's own domestic inflation is officially on the rise as it hit the psychological +2% mark for the first time since the end of 2012 in three German states this morning.

That said, the "wildcard for trading" continues to be any safe haven demand on U.S Trump rhetoric or actions. The 10-year Bund yield is trading at +0.49%, up from +0.46% at Friday's close.

Also, with Euro government bond issuance to remain heavy this week - around +€25B from Italy, Germany, Spain and France - will weigh on Euro prices.

Elsewhere, the market is expecting the BoE to call an end to its QE bond buying at its meeting Thursday. It seems to be fully priced into the Gilt market, and if so, investors should not expect any significant reaction to the announcement. Governor Carney is also expected to revise the current +1.4% GDP forecast for 2017 higher to +0.7%.

Ahead of this evening's BoJ decision, a Nikkei report is speculating that the central bank will heed improving trade and consumption data with an increase in its accompanying projections for growth.

4. Dollar rebounds from its lows

Overnight, the "big" dollar was initially under pressure during the Asian session over concerns that the new U.S travel restrictions could translate into investors withdrawing funds stateside. Also weighing on the USD was last Friday's somewhat disappointing GDP report (+1.9% vs. +2.1% e).

Nevertheless, ahead of the U.S open, the greenback is off its worst levels, trading mixed overall against the major pairs. The EUR/USD is holding below the psychological €1.07 level, while USD/JPY hovers in the mid-¥114 area. The GBP/USD is softer for its third consecutive session ahead of this week's BoE meeting.

Elsewhere, many believe the Mexican peso ($20.80) is oversold by as much as -13%, but that doesn't mean they are ready to bet on the volatile currency just yet.

5. Eurozone confidence firmed this month

Data this morning shows that Eurozone business and consumer confidence was stronger than expected this month - Economic Sentiment Indicator has rallied to 108.2 from 107.8 in December.

Note: The headline print is the highest level since March 2011 - the market was expecting a print of 107.9.

The pickup in business confidence is led by industry, with the metric for that sector rising to +0.8 from a flat print in December - its highest level since June 2011. There is also good news for the ECB - household inflation expectations rose to its highest level in three-years.

EUR/USD has edged lower in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading just below the 1.07 level. On the release front, Germany releases Preliminary CPI later in the day, with the estimate standing at -0.5%. In the US, today's key event is Pending Home Sales, with the indicator expected to rebound with a strong gain of 1.6%. On Tuesday, German releases retail sales and the Eurozone will publish GDP and CPI reports. Mario Draghi will deliver remarks at a joint conference of the ECB and European Commission. In the US, we'll get a look at CB Consumer Confidence.

As Europe's largest economy, Germany's economic data is considered the bellwether of the Eurozone, and key German indicators should be treated as market-movers. Last week, German GfK Consumer Climate rose to 10.2 points in December, climbing for a third consecutive month. On the inflation front, Eurozone indicators have been rising, but the markets are bracing for a decline of -0.5% from German Preliminary CPI. The index has posted consecutive gains since May 2016. Germany will release retail sales on Tuesday. The key consumer spending indicator has struggled, posting three declines in the past four months. However, the estimate for December is 0.6%. As for the Eurozone, the bloc enters January 2017 in decent shape, but there are risks ahead. On Thursday, an IMF report found that economic growth in the Eurozone was improving and projected growth of 1.6 percent in 2017 and 2018. However, the report also warned that political instability could on the Eurozone economy, with Britain's departure from the EU and elections in several Eurozone countries where many voters are skeptical about European integration.

US economic growth was expected to soften in the fourth quarter, and GDP fell a bit short of the forecast. The economy expanded 1.9%, shy of the estimate of 2.1%. Business investment and consumer spending remains solid and should continue into 2017. However, Trump's protectionist rhetoric and action, which saw tensions escalate with Mexico last week, could cloud the bright picture for the US economy.

Donald Trump has just started his new position, but he has already signed a host of controversial executive orders which have been condemned both domestically and abroad. Trump has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and declared he will reopen the NAFTA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. He has also ordered work to begin on a wall with Mexico and banned immigrants from seven Moslem countries. Trump's unconventional and disjointed approach to international politics and trade could have major ramifications on global trade and could lead to financial instability in global markets, triggering volatility in the currency markets. Just a few days before being sworn in as president, Trump stated that the US dollar was "too strong", blaming a weak Chinese currency. Predictably, the greenback lost ground after Trump's remarks. Still, Trump's shock election win in November has boosted the US dollar, with EUR/USD dropping 2.1% during that time.

German Jan CPI data hovering near ECB target

Notes/Observations

German CPI data mixed in session but edging closer to 2% ECB target

Monetary policy in focus as BOJ, Fed and BoE meet this week

Trump immigration policy dampens risk appetite

Overnight:

Asia:

Japan Dec Retail Sales registered its biggest decline in 10 months Y/Y: -1.7% v -0.5%e)

Europe:

ECB's Visco eeiterates ECB must keep highly accommodative monetary policy and saw interest rates at current levels well beyond QE horizon;Reiterated view of not seeing any sign of inversion in euro area core inflation- Germany Social Democrat Party (SPD) said to have nominated former European Parliament President Martin Schulz as its candidate to challenge Chancellor Merkel in the Sept elections

French Socialist Party primary elections picked Benoit Hanon over former PM Manuel Valls for upcoming April elections

IMF report on Greece expects its public debt and financing needs to be "explosive" unless EU eases its burde

Americas:

US President Trump follows through on campaign promised and signs executive order on immigration banning US entry by citizens of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia or Yemen, as well as a 120-day suspension of the US refugee program

Economic data

(NL) Netherlands Jan Producer Confidence: 6.0 v 4.7 prior

(NO) Norway Q4 Industrial Confidence: 0 (flat) v -1e - (NO) Norway Dec Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: -2.1% v -0.1%e

(TR) Turkey Jan Economic Confidence: No est v 70.5 prior

(DE) Germany Jan CPI Saxony M/M: -0.5% v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.8% prior

(ES) Spain Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e

(CH) Swiss Jan KOF Leading Indicator: 101.7 v 102.9e

(AT) Austria Jan Manufacturing PMI: 57.3 v 56.3 prior (highest reading since Mar 2011)

(DE) Germany Jan CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.7% v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7% prior

(DE) Germany Jan CPI Hesse M/M: -0.5% v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.9% prior

(DE) Germany Jan CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.8% v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7% prior

(PT) Portugal Jan Consumer Confidence: -6.2 v -8.2 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: 1.2 v 1.1 prior

(DE) Germany Jan CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.6% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9% prior

05:00 (EU) Euro Zone Jan Business Climate Indicator: ## v 0.80e; Consumer Confidence (Final): ## v -4.9e

(BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.7%e

Fixed Income Issuance:

(DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.2B in 1-month and 6-month Bills

(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.75B vs.l €5.75-6.75B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds

Sold €2.75B vs €2.25-2.75B indicated in 0.35% Nov 2021 BTP; Avg Yield: 0.92% v 0.54% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.32x v 1.33x prior

Sold €4.0B vs €3.5-4.0B indicated in 2.2% June 2027 BTP; Avg Yield: 2.37% v 1.77% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.29x v 1.42x prior

(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €2.25B vs. €1.75-2.25B indicated in Feb 2024 CCTeu (Floating Rate Bond); Avg Yield 0.73% v 0.58% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.43x v 1.45x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.9% at 3,273, FTSE -0.9% at 7,121, DAX -0.8% at 11,724, CAC-40 -1.0% at 4,791, IBEX-35 -1.0% at 9,413, FTSE MIB -2.2% at 18,907, SMI -0.7% at 8,320, S&P 500 Futures -0.3%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading sharply lower led by banking stocks across the board with the Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX the notable underperformers as a result; Energy, commodity and mining stocks generally lower but mixed in the FTSE 100 as copper trades slightly lower with oil trading higher; shares of Vodafone the notable gainer in the index after confirming in discussions with the Aditya Birla Group about an all share merger of Vodafone India and Idea Celluar.

Upcoming scheduled US earnings (pre-market) include Alliance Holdings, Affiliated Managers Group, Alliance Resource Partners, Booz Allen Hamilton, and Enterprise Products Partners.

Equities (as of 09:50 GMT)

Consumer Discretionary: [WS Atkins ATK.UK +4.7% (Approached by CH2M for a $4B merger), Flybe Group FLYB.UK +1.1% (Q3/Q4 results)]

Financials: [Bankia BKIA.ES +0.2% (Q4 results)]

Healthcare: [Sartorius Stedim Biotech DIM.FR -2.6% (FY16 results)]

Industrials: [Gurit Holdings GUR.CH -1.2% (prelim FY16 results)]

Technology: [Sartorius SRT.DE -1.5% (FY16 results), SDL Plc SDL.UK +1.1% (to sell Fredhopper for £25M cash), Sopheon SPE.UK +12.6% (trading update), Wirecard WDI.DE -0.9% (prelim Q4 results)]

Telecom: [Vodafone VOD.UK +2.9% (Confirms in discussions with the Aditya Birla Group about an all share merger of Vodafone India and Idea Celluar)]

Speakers

ESM spokeperson: Greece public debt is manageable if agreed upon reforms are implemented

Japan PM Abe: Too early to discuss who should succeed BOJ Gov Kuroda (**Note: terms ends in Apr 2018)

Thailand Finance Ministry raised 2017 GDP growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.6% and saw the central bank keeping interest rates unchanged over the course of the year at 1.50%

Currencies

USD was initially softer during Asian session over on concerns US travel restrictions could translate into investors withdrawing funds from the US. The USD was also hindered Weaker-than-expected US GDP from Friday. The greenback was off its worst levels as European session progressed and mixed overall against the major pairs. EUR/USD was holding below the 1.07 level while USD/JPY hovered in the mid-114 area. - GBP/USD was softer for its 3rd straight session ahead of this week's BOE, Fed policy decisions

Fixed Income:

Bund futures trade at 161.61 down 23 ticks with yields jumping on the back of German CPI nearing the 2% target. Continued downside targets 161.19 followed by 160.80. A reversal higher targets 162.49 then 163.01 followed by 163.38.

Gilt futures trade at 123.11 down 22 ticks ticks fading some the rebound seen Friday afternoon, despite weaker Equity markets in Europe. Support moves to 122.60, 122.23 then Dec low at 122.08. Resistance moves to 123.42 followed by 123.62, then 124.13 to close the gap. Short Sterling futures trade flat with Jun17Jun18 remaining steady at 28/29bp.

Monday's liquidity report showed Friday's excess liquidity rose to €1.265T up €6B from €1.259T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €183M from €31M prior.

Corporate issuance saw $23.7B come to market last week via 28 tranches which was light of the $30B analysts estimates, however January issuance of $144.6B was a record for a January and the 5th busiest month of all time. European issuance saw a heavy €53.9B come to market via 30 issuers and 36 tranches, mainly comprised of SSA deals as France, Luxembourg and the UK all came to market. Issuance peaked on Tuesday when €27.7B prices marking the busiest day in 3 years.

Looking Ahead

(DE) Germany Jan CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior

(BE) Belgium Jan CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior

05:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey

06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior

06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)

07:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -16.3B prior

07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Total Copper Production: No est v 480.0K prior

07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -1.3%e v -2.1% prior; Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.7%e v -1.4% prior

07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.9%e v 5.0% prior

08:00 (DE) Germany Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.6%e v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.7% prior

08:00 (DE) Germany Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.7%e v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.7% prior

08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming auctions in week

08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:30 (US) Dec Personal Income: 0.4%e 0.0% prior; Personal Spending: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Real Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior

08:30 (US) Dec PCE Deflator M/M: 0.3%e 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.4% prior

08:30 (US) Dec PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.6% prior

08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.3-6.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills

09:00 (BE) Belgium Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior

09:30 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases

09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender

09:50 (UK) Bank of England Bond Buying Operation (APF Gilt purchase operation between 3-7 years)

10:00 (US) Dec Pending Home Sales M/M: +1.5%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior

10:30 (US) Jan Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 15.5e v 15.5 prior

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

Gold – near-term risk remains shifted lower while daily Tenkan-sen capsPullback from $1219 double-top is for now holding above important support at $1182 (Fibo 38.2% of $1122/$1219 upleg), with near-term price action in consolidation mode.

Downside remains at risk after weekly close in red (the first bearish close after month-long rally), with daily MA’s turning in negative setup and double-top continuing to weigh.

Renewed attack at $1182 trigger could be expected and firm break here to trigger fresh bearish acceleration towards $1173/71 (daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement).

Close below Kijun-sen is needed to confirm reversal and open way for extension towards pivot at $1159 (daily cloud base / Fibo 61.8% retracement).

Alternative scenario requires sustained break above $1200/04 (daily Tenkan-sen / Fibo 61.8% of $1219/$1180 pullback) to signal an end of corrective phase and shift near-term focus higher.

Res: 1195, 1200, 1204, 1209
Sup: 1182, 1173, 1171, 1159

Near-term price action continues to trade above key supports at 0.7493/88 (100 / 200SMA’s) following upside rejection at 0.7607 and subsequent easing that was contained at 0.7510.

Setup of daily studies remains bullish and is supportive for fresh attempts higher, however, weekly long-legged Doji that signaled strong indecision, requires caution.

Prolonged sideways mode could be expected while the price is holding within the range, with downside risk to remain in play.

Firm break below 200SMA would trigger stronger bearish acceleration and expose next supports at 0.7463 (rising 20SMA) and 0.7437 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7163/0.7607 ascend).

Conversely, sustained break above 0.7600 zone would open initial target at 0.7630 ( Fibo 76.4% of 0.7776/0.7158 descend) and confirm resumption of recovery rally from 0.7160 zone.

Res: 0.7559, 0.7583, 0.7607, 0.7630
Sup: 0.7539, 0.7488, 0.7463, 0.7437

The pair is consolidating under very important barriers at 115.55/60 (daily cloud top/Kijun-sen line/19 Jan recovery peak), after strong two day rally was capped just under this barrier on Friday.

Bullish near-term studies support further advance, as daily bears are fading after pullback from 118.65/59 tops bottomed at 115.50 zone.

Higher base and double-bottom has formed here, generating strong bullish signal.

Final break above 115.55/60 pivot (also 50% of 118.59/112.50 pullback) is needed to trigger fresh bullish acceleration towards 116.30 (Fibo 61.8%) initially.

Meantime, daily Tenkan-sen (currently at 114.05) needs to hold and keep bullish sentiment alive.

Conversely, break below 114.05 would signal repeated recovery rejection and expose the lower boundary of 112.50/115.60 range for retest.

Res: 115.36, 115.60, 116.30, 116.85
Sup: 114.24, 114.05, 113.60, 113.03