Sample Category Title

USD/CHF - 1.0085

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0085

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0081

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0113

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0097

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite yesterday’s marginal fall to 1.0060, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 1.0065 and current rebound suggest further consolidation above yesterday’s low would be seen and gain to 1.0110-20 cannot be ruled out, however, a break of resistance at 1.0142 is needed to signal the retreat from 1.0171 (last week’s high) has ended, bring another rise towards this level later.

On the downside, below said support at 1.0060 would signal the fall from 1.0171 top is still in progress and may bring further fall to 1.0035-40 but support at 1.0009 should remain intact, bring rebound later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

GBP/USD - 1.2154

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2137

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2180

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2201

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2188

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Cable’s intra-day selloff signals recent decline has resumed, hence downside risk remains for further fall to 1.2100, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2070 and reckon 1.2040-50 would hold from here, sterling may stage another rebound from there later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2180) would suggest an intra-day low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.2215 but break there is needed to confirm and bring a stronger rebound towards resistance at 1.2251.

EUR/USD - 1.0639

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0652

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0677

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0665

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0613

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : - Long at 1.0640

Target :  - 1.0740

Stop : - 1.0610

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : - Long at 1.0640

Target :  - 1.0740

Stop : - 1.0610

Although the single currency has slipped again today and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited and as long as previous resistance at 1.0615 (now support) holds, mild upside bias remains for another rise, above 1.0680 would suggest the retreat from 1.06714 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend the erratic rise from 1.0493 low to 1.0740-45 (1.5 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525) but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0760 (1.618 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525).

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.0640. Below previous resistance at 1.0615 would abort and signal top has been formed, risk further fall to 1.0575-80 first. 

On the hourly chart of S&P500, we can see that price is currently trading sharply lower within higher degree wave C as part of a three wave corrective decline. Well, if that is the case, then even more weakness may show up within the mentioned wave C. Current bearish breakdown is regarded as sub-wave iii, that may extend its gains, probably below the previous swing b-circled and to around the 2347/2350 region. Afterwards a minor correction may pop up as sub-wave iv.

S&P500, 1H

USD/JPY - 114.66

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 114.88

Kijun-Sen level                  : 114.87

Ichimoku cloud top             : 115.00

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 114.88

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 115.20, retaining our view that further consolidation below last week’s high at 115.51 is in store and risk of another fall to 114.48 (yesterday’s low) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 114.26 support and as this move is viewed as retracement of recent upmove, reckon downside would be limited to 114.00-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.69-115.51) and price should stay well above strong support at 113.56-61), bring rebound later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now. A firm break above 115.20 would suggest an intra-day low is formed, bring a stronger rebound but still reckon said resistance at 115.51 would cap upside. Only break there would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove to previous resistance at 115.62, then towards 115.90-00. 

The USD/CAD is in strong uptrend as shown on yesterday Session Recap webinar. Current POC zone is 1.3420-50 and as long as 1.3385 stays strong we might see 1.3550 followed by 1.3600 and 1.3650. The POC (L3, inner trend line, order block, EMA89, narrow triangle breakout) should spike the pair to the upside on subsequent retests towards above mentioned levels. The MACD turned bullish again and no divergence is present so this trade setup is a continuation from yesterday successful USD/CAD setup shown on the webinar.

Increasing for the fourth consecutive month, the PPI for final demand increased 0.3 percent in February. The month's gain was led by services, however, solid price gains were recorded elsewhere.

Stronger-Than-Expected Headline Gain

Accounting for over 80 percent of the headline's gain, final demand services increased a solid 0.4 percent on the month. Final demand goods prices rose for the sixth consecutive month, up 0.3 percent, largely on higher energy prices.

Our preferred measure of core PPI, which excludes energy, food and trade services, also increased 0.3 percent, signaling some acceleration in the underlying trend of core inflation.

Pipeline Pressures Building

On balance, pipeline pressures continue to build. Intermediate processed goods increased for the sixth straight month, up 0.4 percent, with the gain tied to price gains outside of food and energy. Unprocessed intermediate goods slipped 0.2 percent, in part, on a 4.3 percent drop in energy materials prices.

In short, producer prices were stronger than expected, keeping a rising inflation outlook in 2017 as the base case.

Oil price fell on Tuesday, marking fresh extension of steep downtrend from $53.80 lower top that was paused on Monday, for brief consolidation. Renewed weakness comes on comments from OPEC about oil inventories that continued to rise, despite the global deal to cut supply. OPEC countries agreed to curb their production by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan 1, while non-OPEC producers agreed to cut half. Strong bearish sentiment that was established of recent sharp fall that also took out psychological $50 support, after holding above it for three months, now threatens of further weakness. Today's acceleration is now firmly below $48.00 handle and pressuring next targets at $47.32/17 (Fibonacci 261.8% expansion of the wave C from $53.78, on which the price is currently riding/Fibo 61.8% of $42.19/$55.22 upleg). The wave could extend to its FE 300% at $46.38, possibly to $45.27 (Fibo 76.4% retracement) on strong bearish sentiment. Broken 200SMA ($48.71) that capped action on Monday/today, marks strong barrier and guards psychological $50.00 resistance (also daily cloud base), which is expected to limiti extended upticks.

Res: 48.71; 50.00; 50.82; 51.21

Sup: 47.32; 47.17; 46.38; 45.27

A strong sense of caution has gripped the financial markets on Tuesday with investors on standby ahead of an explosively volatile data-packed week. Asian shares were mostly mixed today amid the anxiety with the cautious trading mood exposing European markets to downside losses. With risk aversion set to heighten as uncertainty and political risk weigh on sentiment, Wall Street could be vulnerable to further losses this evening. The unnatural calm ahead of a string of major central bank policy meetings, imminent US rate increase, and Dutch elections continues to send ominous warnings of the storm that has yet to come this trading week.

Sterling tumbles towards 1.2100

The Sterling found itself under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday as concerns heightened over a potential second Scottish Referendum compounding to the Brexit uncertainty. Anxiety over Brexit has been a recurrent theme this quarter with sellers exploiting the uncertainty to limit gains on Sterling. With the threat of an independence vote for Scotland adding to the horrible Brexit mixture, one can understand why the buying sentiment towards Sterling remains frighteningly low. Although Parliament has passed the Brexit bill ultimately paving the way for the government to trigger Article 50, this does not change the bearish bias towards Sterling. The great unknowns over the impact Brexit may have on the UK economy could ensure that the Pound remains depressed for prolonged periods.

From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD fulfils the prerequisites of a bearish trend on the daily chart as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. A breakdown and daily close below 1.2100 could entice sellers to send the GBPUSD to the psychological 1.200 support level.

Dollar bulls remainwide awake

The heightened speculations of a probable US interest rate increase this week has inspired Dollar bullish investors to send the Dollar Index towards 101.50 as of writing. Sentiment remains firmly bullish towards the Greenback with further gains expected as speculators bet on the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates repeatedly this year. Investors may direct their attention to the pending PPI report which could provide the Dollar a final welcome boost if the release exceeds estimates. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar bulls may be back in town with a breakout above 101.50 opening a path higher towards 102.00.

Currency spotlight - EURUSD

The Euro stumbled into this trading week noticeably depressed as political uncertainty in Europe haunts investor attraction towards the currency. Although last week's hawkish surprise from the ECB offered the Euro a lifeline, a strong Dollar coupled with anxiety ahead of the Dutch elections has slowly confiscated gains. Investors will be paying attention to how the Dutch elections play out this week with any signs of Eurosceptic parties gaining popularity pressuring the Euro further. Although the economic fundamentals of the Eurozone have displayed signs of stability, it is the persistent uncertainty and political risk that continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.

Technical traders may observe how the EURUSD reacts below 1.0650 which could act as a dynamic resistance for a sharp depreciation back towards 1.0500.

Commodity spotlight - Gold

Gold remains at the mercy of US rate hike expectations with the prospects of an imminent interest rate increase this week quelling investor attraction towards the zero-yielding metal. Prices are under pressure on the daily chart and a strengthening Dollar should encourage bears to install fresh rounds of selling throughout this week. There is a likelihood that Gold bears will challenge $1190 when the heavily anticipated rate increase becomes a reality. From a technical standpoint, weakness below $1200 could spark a selloff towards $1190.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0631; (P) 1.0672 (R1) 1.0694; More.....

EUR/USD's break of 1.0630 support mixed up the near term outlook mildly and intraday bias stays is turned back to the downside for retesting 1.0494 low. Overall price actions from 1.0339 are seen as a corrective pattern. Break of 1.0494 will revive that case that such correction is completed. And in such case, deeper decline should be seen to retest 1.0339. Meanwhile, above 1.0713 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0828 and above to extend the correction from 1.0339.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.