Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9963; (P) 0.9995; (R1) 1.0021; More.....

USD/CHF is staying in range trading above 0.9958 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.0121 resistance holds. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0327. Below 0.9958 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9443 to 1.0342 at 0.9786 and below. Nonetheless, break of 1.0121 will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 1.0342.

In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we're still expecting the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.50; (P) 114.94; (R1) 115.48; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. As noted before, price actions from 118.65 are seen as a corrective move. Below 112.51 will extend such decline but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound. Break of 115.61 resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7514; (P) 0.7543; (R1) 0.7575; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. The pair has been losing upside momentum with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 0.7448 support will indicate that rebound from 0.7158 has completed. That will turn bias to the downside for 0.7144 key support level. Above 0.7608 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Market movers today

German HICP inflation is due to be released today and we expect it to reach 1.9% for the first time since 2013. With German inflation back around the ECB's 2% target, German scepticism about the very loose monetary policy is likely to intensify, but the latest comments from ECB President Mario Draghi clearly confirmed that the ECB will only react to higher inflation when it is seen across the euro area and there is a sustained adjustment in the inflation path. Related to this, the rise in both German and euro area inflation is lifted mainly by higher energy prices whereas the underlying inflation remains low as reflected by German core inflation at only 1.1% on average in 2016. The euro area HICP inflation figure for January is due to be released tomorrow.

The European Commission's economic confidence indicator is due for release today. The latest figure for December was at the highest level since 2011 and pointed to yearly GDP growth around 2.5%. Last week, we got some early indications that the current strong economic sentiment will not prevail, but we expect the signals related to the current situation to remain strong in the release today.

Later this week, there are a number of important events, including the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the January US jobs report due to be released on Friday. The Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday and the Bank of Japan two-day monetary policy meeting ending on Tuesday will also attract some attention.

In Scandinavia, focus is on Norway today with the release of the retail sales figure for December and industrial confidence for Q4. For more info, see Scandi Markets on page 2.

Selected market news

Global criticism of President Trump's decision to limit entry to the US from seven predominantly Muslim Middle East countries intensifies. In ‘the name of fighting terrorism', Trump has ordered the admission of all refugees to be suspended for 120 days while Syrian refugees have been prohibited entry indefinitely and citizens of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and Libya banned from entering the US for 90 days. The Boston Federal Judge temporarily blocked its administration from enforcing portions of the order and world leaders, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, expressed their opposition against the order, arguing that a particular origin or faith does not justify placing people under general suspicion for terrorism. In the US, people demonstrated at airports and leaders of Google, Apple, Facebook, Netflix and Twitter, which recruit heavily overseas, joined the criticism.

Market participants have reacted by entering risk-off positions reflected in a weaker dollar and declines in Asian stocks. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0730 at the time of writing and Asian stocks are mainly in the red, though many markets in the region are on holiday break. The market might now start to price in a higher risk premium due to the unpredictability of Trump's politics.

In France, left winger Benoît Hamon won the Socialist nomination over former PM Manuel Valls, marking a clear shift to the left for the party. Hamon's flagship policy is the introduction of a monthly income of about EUR750 and his nomination reflects voters turning their back on the business-friendly reforms implemented by President Hollande. A survey on the presidential elections released on Sunday placed Le Pen in front with 25% of the votes followed by Fillon and Macron on 22% and 21%, respectively, in the first round. Hamon is projected to come in fourth, with 15% of the votes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3103; (P) 1.3127; (R1) 1.3175; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. We're holding on to the view that consolidation from 1.3588 has completed at 1.3017. Break of 1.3598 will extend the whole choppy rise from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838 and possibly above. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.3017 will invalidate our view and indicate that rise from 1.2460 has completed and turn outlook bearish for 1.2460.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. As rise from 1.2460 is seen as a corrective move, we'd look for reversal signal above 1.3838. Meanwhile, break of 1.3017 will likely start the third leg to 1.2460 and below.

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Trump's executive order on immigration sparks protests and investor caution

Friday US markets on close: Dow flat, S&P500 -0.1%, Nasdaq +0.1%

Best Sector in S&P500: Healthcare

Worst Sector in S&P500: Basic Materials

Biggest gainers: WYNN +7.9; BCR +5.2%; GD +4.4%

Biggest losers: RHI -7.3%; GPS -5.4%; AAL -5.3%

At the close: VIX 10.6 (-0.1pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.21% (-1bps), 10-yr 2.48% (-3bps), 30-yr 3.06% (-3bps)

Weekend US/EU Corporate Headlines

XXIA: Keysight Technologies said to be close to finalizing acquisition of Ixia for over $1.6B - press

CSX: Said to be in settlement talks with former CP CEO Hunter Harrison and activist investor Mantle Ridge; May result in Harrison being named CEO - press

DHT: Receives non-binding proposal from Frontline Ltd at $5.09/shr; Adopts One-Year shareholder rights plan

VRX: CVC and Advent buyout firms said to be interested in certain Valeant assets, which could yield as much as $1B in a sale - press

FIT: To announce job cuts of 5-10% of workforce while reporting Q4 results that are below expectations - press

Politics

(US) Pres Trump: Immigration order is not a "Muslim ban"

(DE) German chancellor Merkel: Told US pres Trump that the fight against terrorism does not justify Muslim travel ban - press

(FR) According to the latest survey by Le Figaro, frontrunner Fillon has 21-22% approval rating ahead of first round of elections in April, while centrist Macron has 20-21%

(JP) Japan cabinet approval rating remains unchanged at 61% - Yomiuri

(US) State of California considering options to suspend financial transfers to Washington following threats from Trump administration to withhold funds from sanctuary cities - US press

Key economic data:

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -41M (6TH STRAIGHT DEFICIT, smallest deficit in 6 months) V -98ME; 12-MONTH TRADE BALANCE: -3.20B V -3.20BE

(JP) JAPAN DEC RETAIL SALES M/M: -1.7% (biggest decline in 10 months) V -0.5%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: 0.6% (2nd straight increase) V 1.7%E

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Despite the Lunar New Year holiday in much of Asia, there was pronounced weakness in equity indices of Japan and Australia as well as safe haven bid for Treasuries and JPY. Investors are closely watching the fallout from US President Trump's immigration decree banning travel to the US by citizens of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia or Yemen, as well as a 120-day suspension of the US refugee program. The move sparked protests at airports across the US and words of disapproval from European leaders. Another US press report indicated the Trump administration may be headed for a showdown over money transfers with the State of California if it decides to pull funding from "sanctuary cities".

New Zealand put out its 6th straight trade deficit, though this was also its smallest in 6 months, with both exports and imports rising more than expected. Shipments to China were up 13%, while exports to Australia and US down in high single digits. Analysts noted the strong trade is not unusual this time of year given the external demand for agricultural products.

Ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision, a Nikkei report speculated that the central bank will heed improving trade and consumption data with an increase in its accompanying projections for growth. Today's retail trade data for Japan were mixed, with 2nd straight annualized increase but also the biggest sequential decline in 10 months.

Japan:

(JP) BOJ expected to upgrade its GDP forecasts in this week's policy meeting - Nikkei

(JP) BOJ adviser Kawai: BoJ to avoid raising rates until inflation rises to about 2%

Australia/New Zealand:

(AU) Macquarie: Australia H1 corporate earnings growth to show "broad improvement" - press

(AU) NAB chief economist maintaining forecast for RBA to cut rates twice this year - Australian press

(NZ) JPMorgan: Latest narrowing of trade deficit is normal since agricultural exports rise into year-end - press

(NZ) RBNZ: Dec mortgage lending slowed to NZ$5.86B v NZ$6.00B y/y and NZ$6.35B m/m

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng closed, Shanghai Composite closed, ASX200 -0.9%, Kospi closed

Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.3%; Nasdaq -0.3%, Dax -0.3%, FTSE100 -0.2%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.0705-1.0740; JPY 114.25-114.95; AUD 0.7550-0.7560; NZD 0.7260-0.7275; GBP 1.2560-1.2600

Feb Gold +0.4% at 1,196/oz; Mar Crude Oil -0.4% at $52.96/brl; Mar Copper -0.2% at $2.69/lb

SLV iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,444 tonnes from 10,420 tonnes prior; first rise since Dec 2016

(SA) Saudi Aramco said to consider investment of as much as $5B in renewable energy to diversify away from crude oil production - press

(JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.09T v ¥2.3T indicated in 2-yr 0.1% JGBs; Avg yield: -0.173 v -0.157% prior; bid to cover: 5.19 (highest since May) v 4.51x prior

Asia equities / Notables / movers

Consumer discretionary: 4185.JP JSR Corp -3.3% (9-month result speculation); 9201.JP Japan Airlines Corp -0.6% (9-month result speculation); 6770.JP Alps Electric Co +2.5% (9-month result); 7278.JP Exedy Corp -5.9% (9-month result)

Consumer staples: WCB.AU Warrnambool Cheese & Butter +23.8% (acquisition); WOW.AU Woolworths Limited -0.9% (Morningstar cuts rating)

Financials: QBE.AU QBE Insurance Group +1.4% (not in discussion with any buyer); SRV.AU Servcorp Ltd -19.5% (adjusts guidance); 3003.JP Hulic Co +4.5% (FY16 result); 8316.JP Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group -1.9% (9-month result)

Industrials: AJX.AU Alexium International Group +2.2% (Q3 result); 7729.JP Tokyo Seimitsu -1.2% (9-month result speculation); 7211.JP Mitsubishi Motors -0.6% (outlook speculation)

Technology: ACX.AU Aconex -41.9% (cuts guidance); 6502.JP Toshiba Corporation -4.7% (some trust banks are preparing a lawsuit); 6816.JP Alpine Electronics +4.9% (9-month result); 8036.JP Hitachi High-Technologies +5.1% (9-month result)

Materials: ORE.AU Orocobre -6.1% (Q4 result); PRU.AU Perseus Mining -5.0% (Q4 result); BDR.AU Beadell Resources +1.7% (Q4 result); OZL.AU OZ Minerals -0.8% (Q4 result); 5727.JP Toho Titanium +10.6% (9-month result); 4063.JP Shin-Etsu Chemical Co -1.1% (9-month result)

Asian markets trade lower as the week starts on concerns of unrests and geopolitical tensions caused by US president Donald Trump's executive order regarding immigration ban. Trump signed an executive order last Friday, suspending entry of people from seven Muslim-majority countries for 90 days and suspending the refugee program for 120 days. The situation has then developed into a chaotic one as a federal judge in Brooklyn temporarily blocked part of the executive order. And there were waves of protests with ten of thousands of people rallied in US cities to voice the opposition of the order. The uncertainties over the situation weighed down on market sentiments As Nikkei lost -0.51%. In the currency markets, Dollar trades broadly lower except versus Kiwi. Yen surges on risk aversion. The uncertainties might take some time to clear.

On the data front, New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -41m in December. Japan retail sales rose 0.6% yoy in December, below expectation of 1.6% yoy. Swiss KOF leading indicator will be featured in European session. Eurozone will also release confidence indicators and German CPI. US personal income and spending will be the main focus of the day. In particular, core PCE is expected to accelerate to 1.7% yoy in December. And upside surprise there will solidify the case for Fed to hike rates three times this year. US will also release pending home sales.

Looking ahead, one focus of the week is the 2-day FOMC meeting on January 31 and February 1. We do not expect any change in the policy rate as a rate hike was announced in December. Yet, we would focus on the central bank's tone on the economic outlook after Donald Trump's inauguration and his signing of a number of executive orders. In addition, US will release ISM indices and non-farm payroll report.

The BoE meeting scheduled on Thursday is also closely watched. We expect policymakers to stay cautious as PM Theresa May indicated a hard Brexit earlier this month. In addition, BoE will release the latest inflation report. Upgrade in growth and inflation forecast could give Sterling a lift. BOJ meeting would be held on Tuesday. Yet, we expect it would be a non-event as the central bank has announced to increase purchases of 5-10 years bonds to JPY 450b, from JPY 410b previously, last week.

Here are some highlights for the week ahead:

• Tuesday: BoJ, Japan household spending, unemployment rate, industrial production; Australia NAB business confidence; France GDP, German retail sales, unemployment, Eurozone CPI, GDP, unemployment rate; UK mortgage approvals; Canada GDP, IPPI and RMPI; US employment cost index, S&P Case Shiller house price, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence
• Wednesday: New Zealand employment; China PMI manufacturing; UK PMI manufacturing; Eurozone PMI manufacturing final; US ADP employment, ISM manufacturing, FOMC rate decision
• Thursday: Australia building approvals, trade balance; Japan consumer confidence; Swiss retail sales; UK construction PMI, BoE rate decision and inflation report; Eurozone PPI; US jobless claims, non-farm productivity
• Friday: China Caixin PMI manufacturing; Eurozone PMI services final, retail sales; UK PMI services; US non-farm payroll, ISM non-manufacturing, factory orders

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3103; (P) 1.3127; (R1) 1.3175; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. We're holding on to the view that consolidation from 1.3588 has completed at 1.3017. Break of 1.3598 will extend the whole choppy rise from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838 and possibly above. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.3017 will invalidate our view and indicate that rise from 1.2460 has completed and turn outlook bearish for 1.2460.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. As rise from 1.2460 is seen as a corrective move, we'd look for reversal signal above 1.3838. Meanwhile, break of 1.3017 will likely start the third leg to 1.2460 and below.

Economic Indicators Update

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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.35% against the USD and closed at 0.7551 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 0.7% or $43.0/MT to $5847.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.5% or $10.0/MT to $1827.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7548, with the AUD trading marginally lower against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7513, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7477. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7578, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7607.

Moving ahead, Australia's NAB business confidence index for December, scheduled to release in the early hours of tomorrow, will be on investor's radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.0697 on Friday.

On the data front, Germany's import price index climbed 1.9% on a monthly basis in December, compared to an advance of 0.7% in the prior month, while markets were expecting the index to rise 1.3%.

Macroeconomic data indicated that the US flash annualised gross domestic product (GDP) expanded less-than-expected by 1.9% QoQ in 4Q 2016, pressured by a wider trade deficit. Meanwhile, markets expected the nation's GDP to advance 2.2%, following a rise of 3.5% in the prior quarter. Additionally, the nation's preliminary durable goods orders unexpectedly dropped 0.4% in December, dragged by a steep drop in demand for defence-related goods. Markets anticipated durable goods orders to gain 2.5%, following a decline of 4.5% in the previous month. On the other hand, the nation's final Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index surprisingly jumped to a level of 98.5 in January, surging to a 13-year high level, as consumers remained more optimistic about the nation's economy and job growth. Investors had envisaged the index to remain steady at a level of 98.1, recorded in the preliminary print and after registering a reading of 98.2 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0730, with the EUR trading 0.31% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0677, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0625. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0761, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0793.

Trading trend in the Euro today is expected to be determined by Germany's flash consumer price index for January, scheduled to release later in the day. Also, the Euro-zone's final consumer confidence index for January, due to release in a few hours, will be keenly watched by investors. Elsewhere, in the US, traders will eye pending home sales, personal income and spending data, all for December, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.25% against the USD and closed at 1.2558 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2580, with the GBP trading 0.18% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2529, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2479. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2615, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2651.

Going ahead, investors look forward to UK’s GfK consumer confidence index for January, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.