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Monday, Mar 13, 2017

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EURUSD is moving higher despite better than expected NFP figures, but we see pair in wave c) of a complex corrective movement, so resistance may not be far away. I am looking at 1.0670 area where price may give us indication of a bearish turn. A drop next week would be expected back to 1.0500 then.

EURUSD, 1H

U.S. Review

Employment Confirms Fed Is Set for a Hike in March

• Nonfarm employment rose by 235,000 in February amid strength in the goods producing sector.
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent while labor force participation climbed higher.
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent. While softer than expected, an upward revision to January lifted the year-overyear rate to 2.8 percent.
• The trade deficit widened to $48.5 billion in January as a $1.1 billion

Employment Confirms Fed Is Set for a Hike in March

The Fed remains well on track with the employment side of its mandate. Employers added 235,000 new jobs in February while hiring in January was revised higher. Over the past three months, hiring has averaged 209,000 and suggests that the trend in job growth has strengthened a bit since the second half of last year.

Hiring was wide spread in February, but particularly strong in the goods producing sector. Mining payrolls rose by 8,000, which was the largest increase since before oil prices began to collapse in mid-2014. In another sign that the factory sector is on firmer ground, manufacturing payrolls rose by 28,000 and are now up over the past year. Mild winter weather also appears to have boosted construction employment, which jumped by 58,000. Service sector employment was more in line with its recent trend, increasing by 140,000 last month.

Measures of unemployment indicated that slack in the labor market continued to decline. The headline unemployment rate fell back to 4.7 percent, while the broader U-6 measure, which includes workers outside the labor market who want a job and part-time workers who would prefer a full-time job, fell to 9.2 percent. At the same time, the labor force participation rate edged up despite the aging population. Looking at just prime age workers (ages 25-54), the participation rate in February rose to its highest level since 2011 and suggests that the stronger labor market is pulling in new workers.

With the unemployment rate signaling the labor market is near full employment, attention has shifted to wage growth. Although average hourly earnings in February came in a touch short of expectations by rising just 0.2 percent, January's disappointing print was revised up a tick. Over the past year, wages are up 2.8 percent compared to a 2.4 percent increase this time last year. The pickup in wages should give the Fed confidence that the labor market is indeed at full employment and inflation pressures are slowly building. We see nothing in this report that prevents the FOMC from raising rates at next week's meeting.

Trade Looks Set to be a Drag on Q1 GDP

Elsewhere this week, the trade deficit widened to $48.5 billion as a $1.1 billion increase in exports was swamped by a $5.3 billion jump in imports. Some of the widening reflects the recent pick up in import prices. Import prices have firmed over the past few months as oil prices have recovered, and prices for imported products have now increased more than export prices over the past year.

The impact of prices on the February trade balance, due next month, should be more muted. Import prices rose 0.2 percent in February as an increase in prices for agricultural products, consumer goods and industrial supplies more than offset a decline in petroleum prices. Export price inflation was slightly stronger at 0.3 percent. Looking through these price movements, however, the real trade balance looks set to widen over the first quarter and will likely be a drag on Q1 GDP.

U.S. Outlook

Retail Sales • Wednesday

Retail sales got a strong start in 2017, increasing 0.4 percent in January after an upwardly revised 1.0 percent jump in December. January's print came despite a soft reading for motor vehicle and part dealers' sales and miscellaneous store retailers' sales. Most other sales segments had strong sales in January, particularly gasoline stores, as gas prices continued to firm, and electronics, sporting goods and department stores posted solid growth after months of declines. January's report generally supported the strong recovery indicated in the consumer surveys since the election.

Control group retail sales, which goes into the calculation of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) within GDP, was also up 0.4 percent in January, which was a solid start to Q1. Retail sales are reported in nominal terms, so strength may be dampened somewhat when inflation is taken into account. Still, consumer demand remains well suited to drive growth this year.

Previous: 0.0% Wells Fargo: 0.1% Consensus: 0.1%

CPI • Wednesday

Inflation is increasingly approaching the Federal Reserve's target. The January CPI report confirmed that, with prices up 0.6 percent on the month, and 0.3 percent when excluding the volatile food and energy component. Headline CPI inflation was up 2.5 percent over the year, while the core CPI was up 2.3 percent. The transitory effect of low oil prices is largely in the rearview mirror. Meanwhile, prices for food at home have yet to gain traction.

The PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which was released last week, showed a similar firming, with the core PCE gauge just below the 2 percent target. Recent inflation data have strengthened the case for a March rate hike. We expect February's reading to show continued upward trend in consumer prices, rising 2.6 percent over the year, but unchanged on the month as we expect some giveback from January's outsized jump.

Previous: 0.6% Wells Fargo: 0.0% Consensus: 0.0%

Industrial Production • Friday

January's industrial production report was largely impacted by the weather, as a milder-than-usual winter weighed on utilities output. Total industrial production fell 0.3 percent in January, though the decline masked underlying strength in manufacturing output. Manufacturing production was up 0.2 percent, with particular strength in the machinery component—an encouraging sign for capital demand.

The downturn in factory activity that started in 2014 continues to fade into the rearview mirror, and the marked improvement since the election in sentiment measures for the sector gives more upside risk to the outlook. Still, we continue to keep our expectations in check, as a breakout in activity seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. We expect industrial production expanded somewhat in February, up 0.2 percent.

Previous: -0.3% Wells Fargo: 0.2% Consensus: 0.2%

Global Review

Brazilian Economy Remains Depressed

• The Brazilian economy contracted for the second consecutive year in 2016. Although the downturn in the economy may come to an end this year, a return to the supercharged rates of growth that were the norm during the past decade do not look likely anytime soon.

Eurozone Economy Continues to Expand

• The economic expansion in the Eurozone is becoming more and more self-sustaining. Until the core rate of inflation starts to trend higher, however, the ECB likely will keep its foot firmly on the accelerator.

Brazilian Economy Remains Depressed

It was not that long ago that Brazil was regarded as one of the world's high-flying economies. How times have changed! Data released this week showed that real GDP in Latin America's largest economy fell 3.6 percent in 2016 which follows the 3.8 percent contraction registered in 2015 (see chart on front page). The Brazilian economy is now 9 percent smaller than it was at its peak in Q1-2014.

Fortunately, there are some tentative signs that the economy may be bottoming. For example, industrial production (IP) in Brazil has more or less stopped contracting. That said, there are few signs yet of recovery. If there is a silver lining to this story it is that the depressed state of the economy is leading to a sharp decline in inflation (top chart). Consequently, the central bank has reduced its main policy rate 200 bps since October, and most analysts look for further easing. Lower interest rates should eventually boost economic activity. That said, we expect that economic growth in Brazil will remain lackluster for the foreseeable future with real GDP growing less than 1 percent this year. Although the economy may accelerate somewhat next year, we believe that growth will remain well short of the 5 percent per annum rate that was the norm between 2004 and 2008.

Eurozone Economy Continues to Expand

Data released this week confirmed that real GDP in the Eurozone grew 0.4 percent (1.6 percent at an annualized rate) on a sequential basis in Q4-2016 (middle chart). The new "news" was the breakdown of the real GDP data into its underlying demand components, which showed that growth was broad-based, albeit a tad slow, in Q4. In short, it appears that the economic expansion in the Eurozone is more or less self-sustaining at present.

We estimate that real GDP in the euro area will grow at roughly the same rate in Q1 as it did in Q4 and that the modest pace of expansion will remain intact this year and in 2018. The purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing and service sectors currently stand at multi-year highs, although the limited "hard" data that we have for Q1 are not indicating quite the same degree of strength as the PMIs suggest.

The ECB held a policy meeting on Thursday and, as widely expected, it made no changes to its policy stance. The tone of this week's statement was a bit more upbeat than the statement released after the last policy meeting in January as were President Draghi's comments in his press conference. But ECB policymakers continue to acknowledge that the risks to the economic outlook remain "tilted to the downside."

The overall rate of CPI inflation in the euro area shot up to a 4-year high of 2.0 percent in February (bottom chart). But the underlying rate of inflation, as measured by the core inflation rate, remains subdued and trendless. Until the core rate of inflation starts to trend higher, the ECB likely will keep its foot firmly on the accelerator with continued purchases of bonds through its quantitative easing program.

Global Outlook

Mexican Industrial Production • Tuesday

Mexican industrial production (IP) declined 0.1 percent in December from the prior month as slumping mining production and construction activity offset monthly gains in factory production. Weakness in mining production was concentrated in oil and gas output, which fell 2.4 percent—the largest decline since April 2015. However, the year-over-year result reveals a weak performing industrial sector, which fell 0.6 percent. The largest declines were in the mining sector, down 6.4 percent, while utilities and construction activity are up 3.3 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. The all-important manufacturing sector has fared better, boosted by the depreciation of the peso, which we expect to have carried over into the beginning of 2017. That said, markets look for total IP to have started the year on an even weaker note.

Previous: -0.6% Consensus: -0.4% (Year-over-Year)

Australian Employment • Wednesday

Australian employment added a net 13,700 new jobs in January following an upwardly revised December print, besting market expectations of a more modest 9,700 increase. Despite the gain, full-time employment tumbled by 44,500 in January, offsetting December's downwardly revised gain. Part-time, once again, contributed to monthly gains, adding 58,200 jobs, and also helped drive down the unemployment rate to 5.7 percent. The participation rate has also trended lower, falling to 64.6 percent over the month. Australia's labor market has been quite volatile over the past few years with the divergence between full- and part-time job growths becoming more pronounced due to businesses shifting to more part-time positions, which have also compressed wage growth. As such, consensus expects the Australian labor market to continue to improve and add 18,000 net new jobs in February.

Previous: 13,700 Consensus: 16,500

Bank of England Bank Rate • Thursday

Since lowering its main policy rate to 0.25 percent on August 4 and increasing the size of its quantitative easing program, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) has held rates unchanged. Economic growth in the United Kingdom has held up quite well since the Brexit referendum vote, increasing 0.6 percent in Q4-2016. Moreover, the British labor market has tightened somewhat in recent months, wages have shown some signs of acceleration and inflation has edged higher toward the target range. With improving economic conditions, the BoE has revised up its forecasted growth rate to 2.0 percent from 1.4 percent for 2017. That said, with the uncertainty still surrounding the Brexit negotiations, we believe that the MPC will refrain from raising rates at its meeting next week, leaving it unchanged at 0.25 percent.

Previous: 0.25% Wells Fargo: 0.25% Consensus: 0.25%

Point of View

Interest Rate Watch

Fed as Preemptive

Recent rapid changes in market expectations regarding FOMC action have raised the probability of a move to raise the fed funds rate next week. In part, this appears as the FOMC being preemptive in expectation of rising inflation for the period ahead. While we agree that March is likely to see an increase in the funds rate, projections of more rapid and continued FOMC action remain less probable.

Can We Quantify?

Market commentary that FOMC tightening will be more rapid and greater than market expectations are notoriously nebulous and, without actual numbers, are simply not effective for decision making.

One issue is the actual inflation numbers. As illustrated in the top graph, there is a clear seasonal pattern in inflation. Inflation has a distinct seasonal pattern of a jump in Q1 prices, and then a slower pace for the rest of the year. The jumps early in recent years are noticeable.

Expectations Then Deliverance?

Equity market reactions have clearly indicated that market participants expect an improvement in the economy and the earnings/valuations of private companies (middle graph). Our expectation is that such market reactions reflect the influence of anticipated tax cuts, deregulation and a host of other animal spirit changes in attitudes. However, we remain cautious about the actual delivery of policy changes in 2017 as outlined in our annual report last December.

Countervailing Forces

For every action there is an equal reaction. With expectations for better economic growth has come a rise in both interest rates and the dollar (bottom graph). In one part, the market is doing some of the FOMC's bidding. In the second part, the stronger dollar will offset some of the economic stimulus anticipated by the market. In both cases, these actions suggest that the magnitude and speed of FOMC action will not match the extent of the concerns revealed in recent market commentary. Talk is cheap—let's see some numbers.

Credit Market Insights

Mortgage Market's Small Credit Box

In the wake of the housing crisis, lending standards for residential mortgage loans tightened significantly. The mortgage market saw a sharp pullback in lending, with the Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Credit Availability Index declining roughly 85 percent from 2006 to 2008. Credit availability has improved in recent years; however, qualifying for a mortgage still remains a far stretch for many borrowers.

While tighter lending standards have been witnessed across the credit spectrum, borrowers with lower scores have seen the greatest impact. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Household Debt and Credit Report shows borrowers with upper-range credit scores (72o or higher) accounted for 75 percent of mortgage originations in 2016 up from just 24 percent in 2006. At the same time, the lowest-tier credit score (10th percentile) for mortgage borrowers spiked from 580 in 2006 to 650 in 2016. Meaning, the tightening of mortgage lending standards has led to a general reduction in lending to borrowers with low credit scores.

While stricter lending conditions have reduced default rates and improved balance sheets, the decrease in credit availability has also restricted a more robust recovery in housing. In the Federal Reserve's Report on the Economic Well- Being of U.S. Households, renters' most common responses for not owning a home included "they cannot afford a down payment" (50 percent), and that "they cannot qualify for a mortgage" (31 percent).

Topic of the Week

The Girl with the Draggin' W-2

While broad wage growth has improved in recent years, the topline numbers hide substantial variations in earnings between women and men. Women earn just 80 cents for every dollar earned by men (top chart). While this frequently cited figure is accurate, it is somewhat blunt in its measurement as the causes of the gender pay gap are multi-faceted.

Some, but not all of the wage gap, can be explained by observable differences in men's and women's work patterns. Women have less experience in the workforce relative to men, evidenced by lower labor force participation rates. However brief, time spent out of the workforce slows the accumulation of job-specific skills. Among women who do work, they are more likely to work part time. This comes as women still spend 50 percent more time each day than men on housework and family care. Industry and occupational variations also play a role. However, even in traditionally female jobs, such as teaching and nursing, men earn more. If not for the fact that women are now out-achieving men educationally, the pay gap would be even larger.

Nearly 40 percent of the pay gap remains unexplained by these factors, however (bottom chart). Research suggests unconscious biases, lack of sponsors, penalties for working more flexible hours and stigmas when negotiating pay also play a role in the pay disparity.

Closing the gender pay gap should be more than just a social goal. For businesses, research has shown it is a way to boost profits and tap a deeper pool of talent. For the larger economy, narrowing the pay gap could draw more women into the workforce and increase labor force participation, an oft-cited factor in explaining belowtrend GDP growth. Raising female participation and earnings would support income and spending, particularly for low-income households.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

United States

• Markets continued to price in lofty odds for a Fed hike next week, putting further upward pressure on the 2 year treasury yield - which remained near a nine-year high. The U.S. dollar also remained relatively well supported up 0.2% on the week. Meanwhile, equity markets took somewhat of a breather, but the S&P500 only ended the week 0.5% lower.
• There were few domestic data to sift through this week, until today's highly-anticipated jobs report. The labor market added 235k jobs on the month, with some upward revisions to the prior month. Alongside a decline in the jobless rate, these developments have further cemented the case for a rate hike next week.
• With a March hike highly-expected at this point, markets are turning attention to what is in pipeline from the Fed. Three hikes this year, alongside global central banks that remain in highly-accommodative mode should continue to support the U.S. dollar and act as a weight on economic growth. Nonetheless, we expect economic growth to remain resilient supported by continued domestic strength.

Canada

• Crude oil prices slipped below the US$50 per barrel mark this week for the first time since the end of November when OPEC countries agreed on production targets.
• Export volumes were up by a solid 1% in January, but were outpaced by a 2.5% increase in imports.
• Housing starts hit 210k units in February, bringing the 6-month moving average to 205k units - the highest level seen since November 2015.
• This morning's employment report showed a net 15k jobs were created in February, with over 100k new full-time positions added. The unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 ppts to 6.6%.

UNITED STATES - MARCH FED HIKE ALMOST CERTAIN ON STRONG JOBS REPORT

Following last week's relatively hawkish comments from a number of FOMC members, market participants were waiting to see if domestic data out this week would corroborate the notion that the economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike. Markets continued to price in a hike this week, with the 2 year treasury yield continuing to face upward pressure as a result, moving up another 7bps by the end of it, at the time of writing. The more aggressive take on Fed policy has provided some support to the dollar, but the strength was offset by less-dovish rhetoric from the ECB, with the DXY just 0.2% higher at the end of the week.

Globally, the ECB's monetary policy decision on Thursday was in focus. While Draghi hinted at a scenario where the ECB could hike rates while QE is ongoing, it is likely that the central bank will still remain on hold for quite some time. In the context of a Fed that is moving toward a faster tightening cycle when compared to the one and done pace over the last two years, dollar strength will continue to remain an ongoing theme exacerbated by this apparent divergence in monetary policy.

Meanwhile, equity markets seemed to take somewhat of a breather. The S&P 500 closed down on three of the five trading sessions, but ended the week only 0.5% lower, at the time of writing. Higher interest rates and some strength in the USD, was partly to blame, as was the slide in oil prices. Moreover, some of the sell-off was likely related to profit taking as investors cashed in after a long winning streak.

Apart for today's employment report, there was a scarcity of first-tier domestic data this week. Tuesday's January international trade report (Chart 1) was concerning, but the increase seen in the trade deficit to $48.5 billion was largely expected and came on the back of a strong rise in imports. It has been widely accepted that drag from net-trade will likely continue as a strengthening U.S. dollar makes imports relatively more affordable and exports more expensive. So, while disappointing given that it places a drag on overall economic growth, it only reinforced the notion that the U.S. consumer remains in good shape.

Still, while the magnitude of the positive surprise in ADP employment, which reported in the middle of the week, provided markets with a bit of a teaser, it was Friday's payrolls report that stole the show (Chart 2). Non-farm payrolls rose by 235k in February, or well ahead of the 200k expected by the street. Upward revisions also added 9k positions and the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 4.7%. At this point these developments have cemented the case for a rate hike next week. Wage growth disappointed somewhat, but given the upside revision, accelerated nonetheless from 2.6% to 2.8% in February.

Despite the stronger dollar acting as a weight, we expect economic growth will remain resilient. Irrespective of fiscal stimulus, the economy appears to be at a point where it can handle a few hikes per year, with much of the strength hinging on the strength of the U.S. consumer. This is particularly the case if the data continues to come in robust, with wage and income gains boosting disposable incomes. Ultimately, we expect the Fed to raise rates next week, with two more hikes likely later this year should the economic outlook evolve as expected.

CANADA - MORE SIGNS OF MOMENTUM, DESPITE OIL PRICE SLIDE

Crude oil prices slipped below the US$50 per barrel mark for the first time since November 30th - the day that OPEC member countries came to an agreement on how much production they would cut. Oil took the Canadian dollar down with it - with the loonie falling briefly below 74 US cents on Thursday, but recovered most of the week's losses on Friday following a robust jobs report.

Since the OPEC agreement, oil prices had been hovering in the low US$50 per barrel range, as markets were optimistic that these cuts, along with additional output cuts agreed upon by a group of non-OPEC countries, would help to balance the market and work down inventories. Indeed, non-commercial net long positions - a benchmark for speculative activity - have been hovering at record highs in recent weeks.

January data showed that OPEC has nearly met its target, with a high compliance rate of just over 90%. Compliance for the group of non-OPEC members was about half that. Meanwhile, U.S. production is back above 9 million barrels per day, with rig counts rising by 135 since the start of December, to just over 600. The sharp drop in prices this week was triggered by the U.S. storage report, which showed inventories rose 8.2 million barrels last week, reaching the highest level on record going back to 1982. Still rising inventories, in light of the production cuts, has reignited concerns over the supply glut currently hanging over the market.

Going forward, there certainly remains a great deal of downside risk for prices depending on how quickly (or not) markets see proof of rebalancing taking shape. Indications on whether or not OPEC will extend the quotas past June will also influence prices. Our baseline forecast is for oil prices to remain around the $50 per barrel mark in the near term, before edging up in the latter part of 2017 and in 2018 as the global market becomes more balanced.

This will help to keep the loonie fairly rangebound, lending ongoing support to Canada's exporters. January's trade data showed that export volumes kicked off the year on strong footing, rising 1% during the month. However, an even larger 2.5% jump in real imports means that net trade is unlikely to contribute to growth during the first quarter. On the other hand, residential construction will give growth a boost in Q1, as homebuilding activity continues to gain momentum. Housing starts hit 210k units in February, bringing the 6-month moving average to 205k units - the fastest pace seen since November 2015. This pace is unlikely to be sustained going forward, but will certainly help to underpin strong current quarter growth.

Job creation in Canada has also been gaining traction, with February's employment report showing over 100k full time jobs added during the month. This adds further credence to the view that the Canadian economy is on track for a healthy pace of growth. That said, a considerable amount of slack remains, perhaps reflected in the recent weakness in wage growth. And, with downside risks to oil prices and a great deal of uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions stateside, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to move off the sidelines any time soon.

March rate hike at 93 percent probability

The U.S. dollar is higher against most major pairs as the two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to bring forth the first U.S. interest rate hike of 2017. The FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday, March 13 at 2:00 pm EDT ( 7:00 pm GMT) with a scheduled press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen starting at 2:30 pm. The U.S. central bank is forecasted to hike the benchmark rate 25 basis points at <1.00%.

Fed members were instrumental in changing market perception around the March meeting. Back in February 14 the rate hike probabilities were low now according to the CME FedWatch tool there is a 93 percent probability the rate is raised on March 15. The Fed is also realizing an update to its economic projections that could give further insight on the pace of the rate hikes anticipated for this year. The market has already priced in a rate hike on Wednesday, but a more hawkish dot-plot upping the tempo to four rate hikes could further boost the greenback.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates on Thursday but the rhetoric from President Mario Draghi soothed market anxiety about risks to the end of the euro that have been rising as several elections are set to take place in 2017. A Bloomberg article about a possible discussion of the ECB Governing Council on a rate hike coming before the end of the stimulus program appreciated the EUR against the USD on Friday.

The EUR/USD gained 0.786 percent in the last week. The single currency is trading at 1.0686 after the ECB held rates steady and surprised markets with an optimistic outlook that could see it hike rates sooner than anticipated.

The ECB held rates unchanged on Thursday but did not call for further easing and President Draghi's comments on how the risks of the end of the euro are highly improvable at this stage. Political risk remains high with the French elections the ones to watch given the rhetoric from Marie LePen although Emmanuel Macro's rise has reduced some anxiety as he is now in the lead according to polls to win in the second round.

Despite a strong U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday the spotlight was on comments from the European Central Bank possible rate hike could come before the end of the QE program at the end of the year.

Investors are looking forward at the Fed's economic projections and the words from Fed Chair Janet Yellen for more details on future rate hikes as March was put on the table by Fed member comments and more information could be forthcoming on Wednesday.

West Texas lost 8.941 percent in the last 5 days. The price of WTI is trading at $48.22 after Wednesday's report of larger than forecasted U.S. crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a weekly buildup of 8.2 million barrels when only 1.1 million was expected. The ninth consecutive weekly increase is casting doubt on how effective the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cut deal can have if other producers ramp up their activity.

The OPEC deal has had little real impact on global inventories, but it manage to keep prices around $50 per barrel. The lack of demand for energy around the world and increased production from nations outside of the agreement have put downward pressure on crude prices. OPEC members could be questioning if sticking to the agreement if beneficial for them in the long term which could further drive prices down as the deal has been the main driver of price stability in the past two years.

Gold lost 2.65 percent in the last trading week. The price of the yellow metal is trading at $1,202.63 after the U.S. added 235,000 jobs in February and if Fed members comments are accurate a March rate hike is in the cards. Gold has been on the back foot since Fed speakers turned up their rate hike signalling ahead of the March FOMC. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 93 percent probability of a rate hike being announced on March 15.

Market events to watch this week:

Monday, March 13

• 9:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
• 10:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y

Tuesday, March 14

• 6:00 am EUR German ZEW Survey
• 8:30am USD PPI m/m

Wednesday, March 15

• 8:30am USD CPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
• 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 2:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
• 2:00pm USD FOMC Statement
• 2:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate
• 2:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
• 5:45pm NZD GDP q/q
• 8:30pm AUD Employment Change
• 8:30pm AUD Unemployment Rate
• Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate
• Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement

Thursday, March 16

• 2:30am JPY BOJ Press Conference
• 4:30am CHF Libor Rate
• 4:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 8:00am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
• 8:00am GBP Monetary Policy Summary
• 8:00am GBP Official Bank Rate
• 8:30am USD Building Permits
• 8:30am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims

Friday, March 17

• 8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
• 10:00am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

*All times EST