Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0658; (P) 1.0686; (R1) 1.0729; More...

As noted before, the breach of 1.0706 minor resistance indicates short term bottoming on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. This is also taken as an early sign of trend reversal after defending 1.0620 key support level. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is cautiously on the upside for 1.0749 resistance first. Break will affirm this bullish case and target 1.0897 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. There is no confirmation of completion yet. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. However, strong rebound from 1.0620 and break of 1.0897 resistance will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bullish.

European equity markets are expected to start the week a little flat on Monday as investors look ahead to another busy week of economic data and central bank activity, including monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the RBA.

For the last week or two, it's very much the Fed that's been front and centre, as policy makers queued up to warn that a rate hike is coming. We heard from four more policy makers on Friday including Chair Yellen and vice Chair Fischer, both of whom stayed on message with Yellen being unusually explicit in claiming that a rate hike will likely be appropriate at the next meeting if the central bank determines the data is moving in line with expectations before stating that the employment goal is essential met and inflation moving closer to target.

Fischer was also keen to stress that a conscious effort was being made by officials to move market expectations on a possible rate hike which, while being quite obvious, would be a bizarre acknowledgement if the central bank was to then opt against it. Investors are clearly of the same opinion as the probability of a hike next week ticked higher once more to almost 80%, well above the level needed for the Fed to be comfortable with hiking. With the blackout period now upon us, no further commentary on the matter is likely leaving only the data – including Friday's jobs report – to throw a possible spanner in the works, although I'd be very surprised if expectations dramatically change now given the effort to steer them this was from the Fed.

Instead the attention will likely shift to another central bank, the ECB, this week with it announcing its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday. With economic conditions improving in the eurozone – albeit as political risks increases – and headline inflation heading higher, the central bank could come under pressure soon to consider removing a little more accommodation and ease the pressure on its large balance sheet.

Policy makers have been keen to stress that a lot of the inflationary pressures that have driven headline CPI back towards target have been temporary, due to higher commodity prices and a weaker currency, in an attempt to ease any concern about near-term tightening. That said, while a near-term taper is unlikely, the central bank has already announced a reduction in its asset purchases and another at the end of the year now seems likely.

As far as today is concerned, we've got some low and medium tier data due out throughout the session and we'll also hear from the newest member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Charlotte Hogg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0537; (P) 1.0580 (R1) 1.0663; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment as it's bounded in range of 1.0493/0494. On the upside, break of 1.0630 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.0828 is completed. Also, rise from 1.0339 could possibly be resuming. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.0828 resistance and above. On the downside, below 1.0493 support will affirm the case that fall from 1.0828 is resuming the larger down trend. In that case, intraday bias will be back to the downside for resting 1.0339 low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD bearish channel is neatly indicated by the trend lines (red). Price bounced at the bottom of the channel and is now approaching the top of the channel which typically acts as resistance. A bearish bounce could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of waves 3 (green) whereas a bullish breakout could see price challenge the Fibonacci of wave 4 vs 3. A break above the 61.8% Fib invalidates the wave 4 (blue).

The GBP/USD retracement is in a wave 4 (blue) which typically retraces back to the 23.6% - 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci zone. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level invalidates this wave 4 (blue). A break below the support trend line (green) could see price continue with wave 5 (blue) within wave 3 (green) of the 4 hour chart.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the support trend line (green) and is now retesting resistance (red) within wave 2 (purple). A break above resistance could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A bearish bounce and break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within potential waves (brown/green).

The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the support trend line (green) and is now retesting resistance (red) within wave 2 (purple). A break above resistance could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A bearish bounce and break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within potential waves (brown/green).

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is testing the resistance level (red line) and a break above it could see the USD/JPY continue with a wave 3 (blue) towards the Fibonacci targets.

The USD/JPY could use the strong resistance (red) to bounce and build an ABC (orange) within wave 2 (brown) and retrace back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (brown).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2236; (P) 1.2268; (R1) 1.2322; More...

As a temporary low was in place at 1.2213 in GBP/USD, intraday bias stays neutral for consolidation above there for the moment. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2382 support turned resistance and bring another fall. In our view, consolidation pattern from 1.1946 should have completed with three waves to 1.2705 already. Below 1.2213 will target 1.1946/86 support zone. Break of 1.1946 will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. Nonetheless, on the upside, above 1.2382 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2569.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7559; (P) 0.7578; (R1) 0.7614; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment for consolidation above 0.7542 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 0.7635 minor resistance holds. We're holding on to the view that rebound from 0.7158 is finished at 0.7740. Below 0.7542 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, break of 0.7635 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3350; (P) 1.3393; (R1) 1.3416; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment for consolidation below 1.3436 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.3209 resistance turned support and bring another rally. Above 1.3436 will extend the whole rise from 1.2968 and target 1.3598 high. Break there will resume the medium term rally from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.16% against the USD and closed at 0.7582 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 1.4% or $84.0/MT to $5910.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.0% or $20.0/MT to $1909.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7571, with the AUD trading 0.15% lower against the USD from Friday's close.

Early morning data showed that Australia's seasonally adjusted retail sales rebounded 0.4% on a monthly basis in January, in line with market expectations. Retail sales had dropped 0.1% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7542, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7512. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7599, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7626.

Market participants look forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, scheduled to be announced in the early hours tomorrow.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0052; (P) 1.0094; (R1) 1.0116; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. The lost of momentum after hitting 1.0145 is dampening the bullish case a bit. But still, as 1.0008 minor support holds, further rise is mildly in favor in the pair. Above 1.0145 will target a test on 1.0342 key resistance. Based on neutral medium term outlook, we'd be cautious on topping at around 1.0342. On the downside, break of 1.0008, however, will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9860. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9860.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.86% against the USD and closed at 1.0596 on Friday.

In economic news, the Euro-zone's final Markit services PMI was revised slightly lower to a level of 55.5 in February, compared to a preliminary print of 55.6. The PMI had recorded a level of 53.7 in the prior month. On the other hand, the region's retail sales fell for a third straight month, after it unexpectedly dropped 0.1% MoM in January, compared to market expectations for an advance of 0.3%, indicating that a recent surge in inflation may be crimping the region's consumer spending. Retail sales had recorded a revised drop of 0.5% in the previous month.

Separately, growth in Germany's services sector was confirmed at 54.4 in February, painting a bright picture of the Euro-zone's largest economy. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 53.4. In contrast, the nation's retail sales surprisingly dropped 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, compared to investor consensus for a rise of 0.3%. In the previous month, retail sales had recorded a revised flat reading.

In the US, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, dropped strong hints that a rate hike would come at the next meeting. She stated that an interest rate increase “would likely be appropriate” if the central bank judges that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations. She further added that the process of scaling back accommodation will not be as slow as it was in 2015 and 2016.

In economic news, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a level of 57.6 in February, expanding at its fastest pace in nearly two years, signalling momentum in the economy's biggest sector. In the prior month, the PMI had recorded a level of 56.5, while market participants expected an unchanged reading. Meanwhile, the nation's final Markit services PMI surprisingly eased to a level of 53.8 in February, compared to a level of 55.6 in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated the PMI to drop to a level of 54.0, while the preliminary figures had recorded a level of 53.9.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0605, with the EUR trading 0.08% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0535, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0465. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0649, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0693.

Going ahead, traders would look forward to the Euro-zone's Sentix investor confidence index for March and German construction PMI for February, scheduled to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US factory orders and final durable goods orders, both for January, slated to release later in the day, will garner significant amount of investor attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.