Near-term tone is neutral as the pair is holding within narrow consolidation range.

Larger picture, however, remains bullish as rising 20SMA contained pullback from upside rejection at 0.7739, keeping overall bullish bias in play.

Recent repeated failures to clearly break above 0.7700 barrier suggest that the pair may spend some more time in consolidation, before larger bulls resume.

Lift above 0.7700/39 triggers is needed to open target at 0.7776 (08 Nov 2016 high).

Meantime, 20SMA is expected to ideally contain and underpin the action, however, extended dips should be contained by daily Kijun-sen (Currently at 0.7624) to prevent generating stronger reversal signals that could emerge on loss of 0.7624/00 triggers.

Res: 0.7685, 0.7705, 0.7739, 0.7758
Sup: 0.7664, 0.7624, 0.7600, 0.7575

Rising daily cloud base contained bear-leg from 113.02 (21 Feb lower top) at 111.90 for now, with near-term price action consolidating ahead of fresh attempts lower.

Bearish bias is supported by daily MA's and Tenkan / Kijun-sen lines in bearish setup and upside attempts remain limited under pivotal 113.00 resistance zone (converging daily 10/20 SMA's).

The pair is looking for firm break below daily cloud base (currently at 112.33), for extension towards key near-term supports at 111.60 zone and nearby top of thick weekly Ichimoku cloud at 111.36.

Conversely, immediate downside risk would be sidelined on sustained bounce above 113.00 trigger, but lift above 113.76 (21 Feb lower top) is needed to neutralize and shift near-term focus higher.

Res: 112.86, 113.00, 113.47, 113.76
Sup: 112.33, 111.90, 111.60, 111.36

Near-term tone remains bearishly aligned following past two days fall that cracked strong support at 1.2400 (100SMA) and was contained by daily cloud top at 1.2380 for now). Prevailing bearish tone on daily studies, following recovery rejection at 1.2567 Fibo resistance and subsequent fall, keep near-term focus at the downside. However, sustained break below 55/100 SMA's (that now formed bearish cross) and penetration into daily cloud, is needed to generate stronger bearish signal for further retracement of 1.1986/1.2704 upleg. On the flip side, daily Tenkan-sen offers solid resistance at 1.2475, followed by daily Kijun-sen at 1.2525 and upper breakpoints at 1.2567/80. Past two days weakness was driven by news about Brexit/Scottish referendum, with focus turning on the speech of Donald Trump, which may push the pound further down or trigger fresh acceleration higher, if he fails to satisfy traders' expectations.

Res: 1.2448, 1.2460, 1.2475, 1.2525
Sup: 1.2398, 1.2380, 1.2345, 1.2300

The Euro continues to tick higher on profit-taking action from fresh low at 1.0492 (22 Feb), but upside remains limited, as indicated by long upper shadows of daily candles of past two days.

Also, converged 10/55SMA's on daily chart (currently at 1.0590) are still acting as strong resistance, as the pair failed to close above in past three days, despite the price spiking to 1.0620/30 zone (next barrier that marks Fibo 38.2% of 1.0827/1.0492 descend.

Overall bearish daily studies so far offset bullish signal on daily cloud twist, with upticks expected to stay capped under falling 20SMA (1.0639).

Speech of US President Donald Trump is in focus and would likely give stronger direction signals.

Pivotal barriers lay at 1.0639 (20SMA) and 1.0678 (16 Feb lower top), break of which will be bullish, while first downside trigger lies at 1.0550 (yesterday's low) guarding 1.0492 pivot, loss of which will be bearish.

Res: 1.0590, 1.0620, 1.0639, 1.0678
Sup: 1.0568, 1.0550, 1.0520, 1.0492

'Policy noise from the U.S. has evolved into stereo noise from both the left and right side of the Atlantic.' –JP Morgan (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

The common European currency continued to appreciate against the US Dollar during the early hours of Tuesday's trading session, and the currency exchange rate was positioned to continue to do so. The rate faced no resistance up to the level of 1.0617, where the 20-day SMA was located at. In addition, the SMA is unlikely going to stop a surge, and the pair will reach for the weekly R1, which is located at 1.0630. If the surge occurs, the Euro might regain the losses, which it suffered against the buck on February 20.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders have not changed their open position proportions, as 52% of open positions are long on Tuesday. Meanwhile, 65% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.

'On top of soft data from the UK recently ... these fresh signals of a 'hard Brexit' and the risk of another Scottish referendum, enhances our view that the broader outlook for sterling remains negative.' – IronFX (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook

Even though the Cable experienced another leg down on Monday, the support cluster around 1.24 managed to limit the losses and keep the pair elevated once again. The 1.24 itself is providing strong psychological support, and with a number of other significant levels this area appears to be impenetrable. The GBP/USD pair would require a strong impetus, a political event or fundamental event, which could provide sufficient bearish momentum for a drop below 1.24. Such an event could occur today; however, from the technical side the Sterling should edge higher, with the 1.25 mark seen retaken. The bearish trend-line is likely to be the ceiling in case of a positive development.

Traders' Sentiment

Market sentiment remains bullish at 60%, but the portion of buy orders inched higher from 47 to 51% during the last 24 hours.

'It remains to be seen how much the dollar can gain from Trump's speech, as specifics regarding tax reforms, which is of key interest to the market, may not be available until March.' – Barclays (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

There were no surprises in the USD/JPY pair's performance on Monday, being that the Buck easily outperformed the Yen, with volatility limited by the immediate resistance area. The Buck still has room for another rally, with the main target being the supply cluster around 113.32, represented by the two-month bearish trend-line and the weekly R1. Trump's highly anticipated speech today could provide the US currency with sufficient impetus for a surge beyond this target, but with the third resistance cluster most likely limit those possible gains. Meanwhile, the support remains unchanged, namely the three-month zone circa 111.75.

Traders' Sentiment

Today 65% of traders hold long positions, while 48% of all pending orders are to buy the Buck (previously 61% and 59%, respectively).

'The Fed will likely pass on a rate move in March.' - Edward Meir, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The yellow metal on Tuesday morning was regaining some of the losses, which it suffered during Monday's trading. However, the losses suffered on Monday were most likely just a consolidation in the aftermath of the breakout to the upside, which occurred at the end of last week. It is most likely that the bullion will make another attempt at the resistance cluster, which it faces on Tuesday. The cluster is made up of the upper Bollinger band at 1,257.69 and the 200-day SMA at 1,260.23. On the other hand, the metal might seek more support in the 50.00% Fibo at 1,248.96 level.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders remain long on the metal, as 53% of open positions are bullish. In addition, 59% of set up orders are set to buy the bullion.

US Durable Goods Surge 1.8% In January On Strong Demand For Commercial And Military Planes

'My view on business investment remains that there is a good deal of pent-up energy that had been held back by an adverse and uncertain policy environment.' - Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Securities

New orders for US-made capital goods advanced more than expected in January due to strong demand for passenger airplanes and new bookings for fighter planes and related military equipment. According to the Commerce Department, total durable goods orders spiked 1.8% in the past month compared with a downwardly revised 0.8% reading registered in December. The main driver for the jump was a significant increase in orders for transportation goods which surged 6.0% in January. Orders excluding aircraft fell 0.2%, missing expectations for a 0.5% rise on the month. Moreover, there were notable decreases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components as well as computers and electronic products. In the meantime, non-defense capital goods orders went down 0.4%, following an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in December, while machinery orders soared 0.5%, giving a 4.3% annual gain which is likely to heighten confidence in manufacturing outlook. Overall, strong durable goods report followed recent growth in consumer spending and home sales as the Greenback stabilised and oil prices resumed growing. In addition, the Trump administration plans to cut corporate taxes and diminish regulations are set to help businesses, though surrounding uncertainty might prevent proceeding with investments in the near term.

The GBP/USD might attract fresh sellers within POC 1.2455-70 zone targeting 1.2360 and 1.2330. The POC (38.2, inner trend line, EMA89, H3, ATR pivot, right shoulder) has been formed within the context of leaned head and shoulders pattern and it looks a bit bearish. Traders should pay attention to either positional or continuation trades short term as long as 1.2510 holds. 1h momentum or 4h close below 1.2415 suggest continuation towards above mentioned targets.