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US initial jobless claims rose from 203k to 219k in the week ending April 3, coming in above expectations of 210k and pointing to a modest pickup in layoffs. The four-week moving average also edged higher by 1.5k to 209.5k, suggesting some softening at the margin in labor market conditions.

However, the broader picture remains more resilient. Continuing claims fell by -38k to 1,794k in the week ending March 28, marking the lowest level since May 2024. The four-week average also declined by -13.25k to 1,823.25k, the lowest since June 2024, indicating that unemployed workers are finding jobs relatively quickly.

The divergence between rising initial claims and falling continuing claims highlights a labor market that is cooling but still firm. For policymakers, this mix supports a wait-and-see approach, as the data does not yet point to a meaningful deterioration that would force a shift in the policy outlook.

Full US jobless claims release here.

Gold keeps firmer tone but trading within a narrow range and under key barrier on Thursday, as traders remain cautiously optimistic about still fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.

Wednesday’s immediate reaction on announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran was strong (gold price spiked to $4857, the highest since March 19) but short-lived, as the price subsequently dropped and closed at $4719, leaving Doji daily candle with long upper shadow that indicates indecision but also building offers.

Near-term price action continues to trade between two key boundaries at $4603 (broken Fibo 38.2% of $5419/$4099, acting as support) and $4759 (50% retracement, marking strong resistance) but remains in the upper side of the range and above 100DMA ($4671) that keeps near-term bias bullishly aligned.

Daily studies also provide slight optimism, as the price holds above 100DMA for the sixth consecutive session, converging 10/100DMA are about to form a bull-cross and 14-d momentum has returned to positive territory, while gradually ascending RSI is in neutrality zone).

Bulls need to register a clear break of $4759 Fibo barrier to generate signal of continuation of bull-leg from $4099 (March 23 spike low) that will expose targets at $4915/36 (Fibo 61.8% / daily cloud base) and $5000 (psychological) in extension.

On the flip side, 100DMA offers solid support, ahead of $4600 zone, loss of which would sideline bulls.

However, geopolitical situation is likely to make the biggest contribution to the near-term price direction, with further weakness of the dollar to continue to underpin the yellow metal’s price.

Res: 4759; 4800; 4857; 4915.
Sup: 4700; 4671; 4603; 4553.

• High interest rates could force central banks to sell gold.
• The US dollar could rise thanks to the Fed’s passivity.

Amidst the turmoil in the Middle East, the US dollar almost missed an important event – the minutes of the FOMC meeting. Now, the Fed began managing expectations, formally maintaining its stance on cutting rates but kicking this idea down the road. In March, Fed officials acknowledged that the chances of inflation slowing down were diminishing, and not just because of the surge in oil prices. The impact of US tariffs on prices will be felt for a long time to come, and Americans’ growing habit of living with high price growth will result in heightened consumer inflation expectations. The Fed indicated that it is closely monitoring upside inflation risks, although it sees a greater threat from a slowdown in the labour market.

News of a ceasefire in the Middle East raised the chances of a policy easing by the end of the year from 12% to almost 50%, but the subsequent publication of the FOMC minutes pushed them back down to 25%. Investors realise that even a stabilisation of current petrol prices will keep prices higher in the coming months, forcing the Fed to keep rates on hold. It is too early to consider monetary policy easing, just as it is too early to count on a rally in EURUSD.

The surge in the main currency pair following news of the ceasefire is largely due to the mass liquidation of long US-dollar positions rather than a targeted bet on the euro’s rise. Until a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran is signed and while oil prices remain high, the eurozone economy remains vulnerable.

Gold was too quick to believe in an end to the conflict and a cut in Fed rates. The opposing sides remain far apart. Donald Trump has declared a total victory and is demanding a large payout from the supposedly defeated Iran. The latter continues to control the Strait of Hormuz.

If the negotiations fail, a situation similar to the late 1970s will arise, when the oil crisis sent US consumer prices soaring. In response, the Fed raised rates to 20%, and gold prices plummeted by 85% between 1980 and 1999. As a result, central banks began actively offloading their gold reserves. For instance, the Bank of England sold 395 tonnes of gold between 1999 and 2002. Some countries, such as Turkey, are beginning to follow suit. This will put a spanner in the works for gold bulls.

• Initial euphoria over the US-Iran ceasefire has been replaced by caution
• European equities are retreating, with the STOXX 600 sliding 0.6% and Germany’s DAX shedding 1.3%
• The "peace dividend" is being questioned as Brent crude claws back ground to trade around $97 a barrel
• The high price of oil suggests an inflationary surge is "baked into" upcoming data, leading traders to still price in two 25-basis-point hikes from the ECB before year-end.

The relief rally that swept through global markets on Wednesday has hit a significant roadblock this morning. As we move through the European session, the initial euphoria surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire is being replaced by a cold dose of reality.

Asian Session Recap: Cracks in the Ceasefire

Asian markets started the day on a cautious footing as reports emerged of potential breaches in the fragile two-week truce.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.9%, with Japan’s Nikkei struggling to maintain its footing after yesterday's monster 5.4% rally.The primary concern for the region remains the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the ceasefire agreement, Iran’s continued influence over the waterway and reports of "tolls" for safe passage have kept shipping markets on edge.

The RBNZ also caught some attention, holding rates steady as expected but maintaining a hawkish tilt, warning of further action if the recent energy-led inflation spike becomes entrenched.

European Session: Oil Rebounds, Equities Retreat

The initial euphoria has shifted to caution, with the STOXX 600 sliding 0.6% to 609.59.

The retreat is widespread across the continent:

• Germany’s DAX is leading the downside, shedding 1.3%.
• France’s CAC 40 has retreated 0.7%.

The "peace dividend" that saw oil prices collapse by nearly $20 yesterday is already being questioned. Brent crude has clawed back some ground, trading around $97 a barrel after Tehran warned that the terms of the deal were not being fully respected.

The sector rotation today tells the story of a market moving back into a defensive crouch:

• The Losers: Cyclical and growth sectors are feeling the heat. Industrials are down 1%, while Luxury stocks have plunged 2.3%. Travel, Banks, and Tech have all slipped into the red, surrendering a portion of yesterday's outsized gains.
• The Outperformer: Energy is the lone bright spot, gaining 0.9%. This comes as oil prices creep higher, reflecting the market's skepticism that the supply chokepoint in the Middle East will be resolved anytime soon.

The Inflation "Hangover"

While Brent crude hasn't yet reclaimed the $100 level, a small silver lining for the bulls, it remains roughly 40% higher than pre-conflict levels. This is the "inflationary ghost" haunting the ECB and the Fed.

Even with the ceasefire, the lag in energy costs suggests an inflationary surge is already baked into upcoming data.

Eurozone bond yields are ticking higher today as traders realize that a two-week truce doesn't necessarily mean a dovish pivot. Markets are still pricing in two 25-basis-point hikes from the ECB before year-end.

Currency Markets: The flight-to-safety trade has moderated slightly, but the US Dollar remains resilient.

• EUR/USD is hovering near 1.1660, struggling to extend its recent recovery.
• GBP/USD is sitting around 1.3390, eyeing the 1.3400 handle but lacking the momentum to break through.
• USD/JPY is trading near 158.80, as the Yen remains the laggard in this high-volatility environment.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

The Outlook: All Eyes on Washington and Islamabad

The rest of the day will likely be dominated by headlines regarding the upcoming Saturday morning talks in Islamabad. Markets are desperate for a permanent solution, but the "fragility" of this truce suggests we aren't out of the woods yet.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Brent Crude: $100 remains the psychological line in the sand. A move back above this could reignite stagflation fears.
• S&P 500 Futures: Currently down 0.2%, watch the 5200 level for support if the "reality check" intensifies.

US Core PCE (Due later): We are expecting a 0.4% rise. If this comes in hot, it will remind markets that even if peace holds, the inflationary "hangover" from the last five weeks of conflict is far from over.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - WTI Oil

WTI crude (US Oil) is currently undergoing a "reality check" following the massive sell-off from the $115.00 peak. On the H4 chart, the price action has found immediate support around the $94.00 - $95.00 zone, but the recovery is struggling to clear the 100-period SMA (purple line) currently sitting at $98.89.

The RSI has bounced from oversold territory but remains capped below the 50-midline, suggesting the prevailing momentum is still skewed to the downside. While we are seeing a minor relief rally, the series of lower highs persists.

• Resistance: A break above $100.00 is essential to shift the intraday bias toward a retest of the $107.50 level.
• Support: Failure to hold $94.00 could see a swift slide toward the 200-period SMA (yellow line) near $88.83, which aligns with the key psychological and structural support at $90.00.

WTI Oil Four-Hour (H4) Chart, April 9, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Note: Traders should be wary of "headline risk" today. We saw yesterday how quickly sentiment can pivot on a single announcement. Until we see actual tankers moving freely through the Strait without "tolls" or military escort, the risk remains skewed to the upside for commodities and downside for risk assets.

Stay nimble.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that monetary policy remains supportive, noting that real interest rates in Japan are still “clearly negative” and keeping financial conditions accommodative.

At the same time, Ueda flagged a potential headwind from fiscal policy. He warned that increased government spending could drive up market interest rates, raising the risk of "crowding out" private sector investment. This reflects concern that fiscal expansion, while supportive in the short term, could complicate the broader policy mix.

Despite these risks, Ueda struck a constructive tone on the outlook for investment. He highlighted that accommodative conditions are already feeding through to a “moderate uptrend” in capital expenditure, suggesting that negative real rates remain an effective transmission channel.

EUR/USD rose to 1.1667 on Thursday. The US dollar partially recouped its losses from the previous session, as market sentiment remains cautious amid a fragile truce between the US and Iran.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense. According to Iranian media, the passage of tankers is still restricted following new strikes in the region. Iranian representatives have alleged violations of several ceasefire conditions.

The dollar fell sharply the previous day following the announcement of a two-week truce, which led to a drop in oil prices and temporarily eased inflation fears.

An additional factor was the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. Some participants acknowledged the possibility of raising rates to contain inflation, though many still anticipate subsequent policy easing.

Investor attention is now focused on macroeconomic data, including consumer spending reports, the PCE index, and the upcoming CPI release, which will provide further insight into inflation. All of these could determine the near-term direction of markets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around 1.1683. A downward wave is expected, with a continuation to 1.1606 as a local target. Subsequently, a move higher back to 1.1683 is anticipated. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum and the potential for the downtrend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave to the 1.1616 level. After reaching this level, an increase to 1.1666 is expected, followed by a further decline to 1.1494. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains on the front foot, though the dollar has managed to claw back some ground as the US-Iran truce shows signs of strain. Reports of continued restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and alleged ceasefire violations have reintroduced caution into markets. The Fed minutes revealed a divided committee, with some members open to rate hikes while others lean towards eventual easing, adding to the uncertainty. With key US inflation and consumer data on the horizon, the pair's direction remains uncertain. Technically, near-term downside appears likely, but the broader trend will depend on whether the fragile truce holds or geopolitical tensions reignite.

The S&P 500 (SPX) completed its cycle from the April 2025 low on February 2, 2026, when it reached 6991.92. This level is identified as wave (1). Since that peak, the Index has been correcting the entire cycle from April 2025 through a double‑three Elliott Wave structure. From the February high, wave W declined to 6652.56, followed by a recovery in wave X that ended at 6845.08. The Index then resumed lower in wave Y, which extended toward 6318.33. It has since turned higher in wave (3), although a break above the wave (1) high at 6991.92 is still required to fully invalidate the possibility of a second corrective sequence.

From the wave (2) low, wave (i) advanced to 6609.67, and the subsequent pullback in wave (ii) ended at 6474.94. The structure suggests that additional highs remain likely to complete waves (iii), (iv), and (v). This sequence should finish wave ((i)) and conclude the cycle that began from the March 31 low. A corrective pullback is expected afterward before the broader rally resumes. In the near term, the bullish outlook remains valid as long as the pivot at 6318.33 stays intact. Under this condition, any dips should continue to find support within a three‑, seven‑, or eleven‑swing sequence, reinforcing the potential for further upside as the larger trend progresses.

S&P 500 (SPX) 45-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

SPX Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkTcqq9ty24

European currencies posted solid gains, while the US dollar came under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions following reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. Reduced demand for so-called safe-haven assets acted as the primary driver, prompting a reallocation of capital flows towards risk-sensitive instruments and developed market currencies.

Additional pressure on the dollar came from a sharp decline in oil prices, driven by expectations of stabilised supply through the Strait of Hormuz. This has lowered inflation risks and reinforced expectations of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, US Treasury yields declined, further supporting a reassessment of the Fed’s policy outlook. Against this backdrop, money markets are once again pricing in the probability of rate cuts before year-end, limiting the dollar’s recovery potential and reinforcing the current downward momentum.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its recent range, moving higher in line with broad-based dollar weakness. The price could continue rising towards 1.1740–1.1770. However, a short-term corrective pullback towards former resistance at 1.1610–1.1630 could happen. A daily close below 1.1600 may signal a return to the previous consolidation range.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German industrial production
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core PCE Price Index
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also broke out to the upside, following the broader trend of dollar weakness. After such a sharp move, a corrective pullback towards the recent highs at 1.3320–1.3350 might be possible. A sustained move above yesterday’s high could open the way for further gains towards 1.3510–1.3560.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Today at 11:30 (GMT+3): Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey
• Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): UK mortgage rate data
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims

Summary

The appreciation of European currencies is being driven by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, declining oil prices, and a reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The upside breakouts in EUR/USD and GBP/USD reflect a shift in market balance towards risk assets. However, further direction will depend on confirmation from incoming US macroeconomic data. Should downward pressure on yields persist and rate cut expectations strengthen, the dollar may continue to weaken. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could trigger short-term stabilisation and a return to consolidation.

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For several weeks, the oil market remained directly influenced by the US-Iran tensions. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent prices within the $97–110 range. Overnight on 8 April, the parties announced a two-week ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping, immediately removing the accumulated geopolitical premium from prices. Brent declined by over 10%, falling towards the $92 per barrel level.

However, later the same day, the ceasefire came under pressure. Gulf states reported Iranian drone and missile strikes, with the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain confirming attacks on oil facilities and infrastructure. Iran subsequently suspended vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a breach of the agreement by Israel, which had conducted strikes in Lebanon. Israel clarified that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon.

Negotiations are scheduled for 10 April in Islamabad, although the outcome remains uncertain. The market continues to show high sensitivity to any changes in diplomatic or military rhetoric. In parallel, OPEC+ approved an increase in oil production quotas on Sunday, adding further supply-side pressure.

Technical Picture

On the daily chart, the prolonged consolidation within the $60–75 range concluded with an impulsive rally towards $115, driven by geopolitical escalation in February–March 2026. Notably, on 18 March, vertical volume recorded a peak spike, confirming the climactic nature of the move.

The market failed to sustain these elevated levels, and the subsequent correction pushed prices down to $89, where the price approached the lower boundary of a horizontal volume cluster. Above current levels, the market profile remains dense, with the highest concentration of trading activity (POC) located in the $101–103 range. This area could serve as the nearest upside reference, with a breakout requiring significant buyer participation. The next resistance level could be $109.

For sellers, the key support level could be $89. A break below this level aligns with the base of the previous session and may influence short-term bearish positioning.

The RSI with Moving Averages (nominal) indicator presents a similarly notable picture. The RSI has remained below both moving averages for the past 10 days, with both MAs trending downward. This signals a weakening bullish impulse and a shift towards a neutral-to-bearish oscillator configuration.

Key Takeaways

Brent prices corrected sharply following the removal of the geopolitical premium and increased supply pressure from OPEC+. From a technical perspective, the price remains below the POC zone, while the RSI+MA configuration reflects a bearish context. The key range levels—89 and 109—could be reference points for the upcoming session.

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Market Overview

The crypto market cap dropped by 1.65% over the past 24 hours to $2.41 trillion, with most actively traded coins also declining. NEAR (+1.1%), Tron (+0.3%), and Bitcoin Cash (−0.5%) are performing relatively better than the market. The day’s underperformers include Algorand (−11.4%), Aptos (−6.1%), and Polkadot (−6.1%).

Bitcoin made a fresh attempt to breach $73K on Wednesday but once again encountered a strengthening sell-off, retreating to $71K by the start of active European trading. BTC remains above the 50-day moving average, which has already turned upwards, reinforcing the short-term bullish sentiment. However, we will need to wait for the price to rise above $75K before we can speak of the market entering an active bullish phase.

Ethereum retreated by 4% to $2.18K from its peak the previous day. This pullback is not yet cause for concern and appears more like a short-term correction while the overall sentiment remains optimistic. We see fluctuations within the $2.0K–$2.4K range as market noise; a breakout beyond this calm consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move.

News Background

Analysts are sceptical about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s growth. Uncertainty regarding the fulfilment of conditions, the threat of a new escalation, and macroeconomic pressure could limit the growth of the crypto market, according to LVRG.

The key conditions for Bitcoin to resume growth are its consolidation above the $74K level and a subsequent break above $80K. Breaking through these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said.

The US SEC has described its previous practice of prosecuting crypto companies under former chairman Gary Gensler as misguided. The regulator reported that 95 such cases had been initiated since 2022.

Zahir Abtikar announced the closure of the Split Capital hedge fund, citing the ineffectiveness of this business model for the cryptocurrency industry. According to him, the number of high-quality projects is declining, and many cryptocurrency creators are simply imitating the business.