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• NZDUSD hits fresh lows on US tariff threats
• Technical outlook remains gloomy
• RBNZ rate decision due on Wednesday at 01:00 GMT

NZDUSD plunged to a one-year low of 0.5795 early on Tuesday following Trump's renewed tariff warnings against Canada, Mexico, and China, but it soon managed to recoup its losses and return above the 0.5800 level.

The short-term outlook remains negative. The pair is trading below the 0.5850 support area for the second consecutive day, increasing the risk of further declines. While the RSI and stochastic indicators are near oversold levels, they keep moving sideways.

A close below the 0.5800 psychological mark, which triggered an impressive bull wave a year ago, could dampen market sentiment, squeezing the price toward the 0.5740 region taken from November 2022. If the 0.5700 round level proves fragile too, the decline could stretch toward the 0.5650 constraining zone last seen in October 2022.

Otherwise, an upside reversal could immediately halt near the steep resistance trendline at 0.5870. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5915 will be closely watched as well following the defeat near the line last month. Should the bulls surge higher, they may initially test the barrier of 0.5975 before advancing toward the previous high of 0.6035.

Overall, NZDUSD remains in a bearish trend, within a broad range that has held since the start of 2023. While short-term stability is possible, a significant rally seems unlikely. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) rate decision on Wednesday could add further volatility, with a potential 50bps rate cut on the table.

In an interview with Helsingin Sanomat, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos acknowledged the shifting priorities of the ECB as inflation continues to decline.

Inflation is expected to return to the medium-term target of 2% by 2025. At the same time, economic growth remains very weak. So "concerns about high inflation have shifted to economic growth". he said.

Additionally, he highlighted the rising challenges posed by "geopolitical risks" and uncertainty surrounding US. trade and fiscal policies, which could have broader implications for the Eurozone economy.

Looking ahead, ECB’s December projections will offer further clarity, but De Guindos reiterated that if current forecasts hold, the central bank will "continue making our monetary policy stance less restrictive."

De Guindos stressed the importance of a cautious, data-driven approach in such uncertain conditions, noting that "it’s difficult to make predictions about the specific number and size of rate cuts." However, with inflation moving closer to the medium-term target, ECB appears set to maintain its easing bias.

Full interview of ECB's de Guindos here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.16; (P) 193.89; (R1) 194.51; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Corrective rise from 180.00 could have completed with three waves up to 199.79. Deeper fall would be seen to 183.70 support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 197.77 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.17; (P) 161.64; (R1) 162.30; More....

Further decline is expected in EUR/JPY with 163.19 support turned resistance intact. Corrective rebound from 154.40 could have completed with three waves up to 166.67. Deeper fall would be seen to 155.14 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 163.19 will bring retest of 166.67 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8319; (P) 0.8341; (R1) 0.8372; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in range trading above 0.8259 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 0.8446 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8259 will resume larger down trend to 0.8201 key support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. However, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound. Decisive break of 0.8201 will indicate long term bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5948; (P) 1.6041; (R1) 1.6117; More...

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.5963 extend higher and the break of 1.6161 support turned resistance delays the bearish case. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall would remain in favor as long as 1.6359 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.5996 key support will carry larger bearish implications. However, break of 1.6359 will be the first sign of bullish reversal and target 1.6598 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 1.5996 key support level. Sustained break there will argue that whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is already reversing. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.6359 resistance, will keep medium term outlook neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9281; (P) 0.9313; (R1) 0.9334; More....

With break of 0.9294 minor support, rebound from 0.9204 could have completed after rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.9204/9 support zone. Decisive break there will indicate larger down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9364 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9444 resistance holds. Decisive break of 0.9209 low will resumed long term down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9772 to 0.9209 from 0.9444 at 0.9096 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3940; (P) 1.3974; (R1) 1.4019; More...

USD/CAD's rally resumed by breaking through 1.4104 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3418 to 1.4104 from 1.3930 at 1.4354 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3930 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is resuming with break of 1.3976 key resistance (2022 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391. Now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3418 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6478; (P) 0.6514; (R1) 0.6540; More...

No change in AUD/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6687 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 61.8% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6421 will resume the fall from 0.6941 to 100% projection at 0.6257 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

• GBPUSD falls for 8 consecutive weeks
• 20- and 200-day SMAs post death cross
• MACD and RSI suggest more losses

GBPUSD recorded the eighth straight negative week after the pullback from the 1.3433 level, losing more than 7%. The price posted a fresh six-month low of 1.2486 on Friday, meeting the long-term ascending trend line.

More aggressive selling interest would switch the broader outlook to a bearish one, resting near the 1.2445 support, taken from the lows on May 9. Even lower, the bears would gain control, pushing the pair towards the psychological mark of 1.2300.

In case of a bounce off the uptrend line, then the price may test the 1.2715 resistance area, ahead of the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2770 and, more importantly, the 200-day SMA at 1.2820.

The momentum oscillators are confirming a bearish structure as the RSI is pointing down near the oversold zone, while the MACD is still extending its negative steam below its trigger and zero lines. The 20- and 200-day SMAs created a death cross, confirming the falling movement.

In summary, GBPUSD  has been trending downward in the short term, but a break below 1.2445 could also alter the long-term outlook.