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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1696; (P) 1.1741; (R1) 1.1767; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues below 1.1848. Rise from 1.1408 is expected to continue as long as 1.1642 support holds. Firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1537). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.94; (P) 156.64; (R1) 157.75; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 158.55) holds. Below 155.48 will extend the fall from 160.71 and target 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74).

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.03) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3542; (P) 1.3601; (R1) 1.3634; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and some consolidations would be seen below 1.3657. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3453 holds. Above 1.3657 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3158 to 1.3598 from 1.3453 at 1.3725 first. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7787; (P) 0.7810; (R1) 0.7841; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the downside for 0.7774 and then 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758. Firm break there will extend the fall from 0.8041 to 100% projection at 0.7656. On the upside, above 0.7829 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7923 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8042) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3564; (P) 1.3579; (R1) 1.3608; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as this point. Fall from 1.3965 is in progress for retesting 1.380 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3709 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7180; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7225; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Recent up trend should be resuming for 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Dollar is starting the week on a soft footing, and even a strong US non-farm payroll report this week may not be enough to reverse that trend. Markets are increasingly positioned around a counterintuitive dynamic where solid economic data supports risk appetite rather than the greenback, limiting the traditional upside response.

Last week’s weakness in Dollar was driven by a confluence of factors, including firm risk sentiment, expectations that other major central banks may tighten further, and a temporary surge in Yen strength linked to suspected intervention. The impact of Yen is likely to fade unless Dollar attempts another push toward the 160 level during Japan’s Golden Week holidays.

Geopolitical tensions, while still present, have taken a back seat for now. The focus is turning firmly toward risk markets and monetary policy expectations, both of which are set to be heavily influenced by this week’s April NFP report.

The key question for markets is whether March’s strong payroll gain was an outlier or the beginning of a renewed growth in hiring. Any downward revision to prior data, alongside developments in wage growth and unemployment, will be closely scrutinized for signals on underlying labor market momentum.

However, even a strong NFP print may not deliver sustained support to the Dollar. Solid job growth would reinforce the view that the Fed will remain on hold, delaying rate cuts further. But with inflation risks still tied to external factors like energy, a stronger labor market alone is unlikely to shift expectations toward renewed tightening.

Instead, stronger data could reinforce risk-on sentiment, particularly in equities, as it signals resilience in growth despite elevated rates and geopolitical uncertainty. In that scenario, capital may continue to flow into higher-yielding and risk-sensitive assets, limiting upside for the Dollar.

This dynamic creates a clear asymmetry in Dollar reaction. Markets are currently biased to sell the greenback, meaning that weak data is likely to trigger a sharper downside move than any upside generated by strong data. The reaction function is no longer balanced.

A downside surprise in payrolls, or a rise in the unemployment rate toward the 4.4%–4.5% range, would likely accelerate Dollar losses. In such a scenario, markets could quickly shift toward concerns that the Fed is behind the curve, raising fears of a harder economic landing and prompting broad USD selling.

Conversely, a strong NFP outcome may simply reinforce the current equilibrium: no cuts, but no hikes either. That outcome would support risk sentiment rather than the Dollar itself, leaving USD gains limited and potentially short-lived.

For now, the Dollar is stuck in a “heads you win, tails I lose” setup. Weak data undermines confidence and drives selling, while strong data fuels risk appetite that diverts flows away from the greenback. Unless there is a major shift in geopolitics or Fed signaling, this asymmetric risk profile is likely to keep Dollar under pressure in the near term.

For the day so far, Dollar is currently the worst performer, followed by Aussie, and then Loonie. Kiwi the strongest, followed by Yen, and then Swiss Franc. Euro and Sterling are positioning in the middle.

Bitcoin Tests $80K as ETF Flows, Options Expiry, and Supply Wall Collide

Bitcoin’s rally is hitting a decisive moment at $80K, where ETF demand, options positioning, and a major supply wall are all converging. While Nasdaq-driven liquidity is pushing prices higher, fading ETF inflows and heavy derivatives resistance could cap gains. A clean breakout would open the path toward $85K, but failure risks a deeper pullback. Read More.

Fed's Kashkari, Hammack and Logan Reject Easing Bias, Say Next Move Could Be Hike or Cut

Three Fed officials are pushing back against expectations of further rate cuts, warning that policy is no longer on a one-way path. Dissenters at last week's FOMC meeting argue the next move could be either a hike or a cut as inflation risks from geopolitical tensions rise. The shift signals growing uncertainty and could force markets to reprice Fed expectations. Read More.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7180; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7225; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Recent up trend should be resuming for 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Bitcoin’s near-term rally is extending into a critical test of the $80k psychological barrier, with price action now entering a zone where multiple drivers converge. The move has been supported by strong risk appetite, with NASDAQ extending its record run, but the real question is whether this external tailwind is enough to overcome structural resistance building just overhead.

The broader backdrop remains firmly risk-on. As tech stocks push higher, liquidity continues to spill into high-beta assets, with Bitcoin acting as a key beneficiary of the “buy everything” environment. This correlation has been a major driver of recent upside.

However, the rally is now running into a more complex set of constraints. A large concentration of call options expiring in May and June is clustered around the $80k strike. This creates a classic “magnet effect,” pulling price toward that level, but also raises the risk of selling pressure as market makers hedge their exposure. As a result, $80k is shaping up not just as a target, but as a battleground.

On-chain data reinforces the significance of this zone. Roughly 475,000 BTC were last transacted between $77,800 and $80,880, forming a dense supply area. This suggests a substantial amount of potential profit-taking from holders who may look to exit near breakeven. For the rally to sustain, Bitcoin needs to hold above $78,500 for several sessions, signaling that fresh demand—likely institutional—is absorbing this overhead supply.

That demand has so far been driven primarily by spot Bitcoin ETFs. April saw a strong $2.44B in net inflows, nearly doubling the previous month and providing a solid foundation for the rally. However, momentum showed signs of cooling late in the month, with $490M in outflows during the final week. The near-term outlook now hinges on whether inflows can return to consistent $100M+ daily levels. Without that support, the push above $80k risks stalling.

Technically, the structure of the rebound from the 59,866 low still appears corrective. Price is now testing a confluence of resistance, including the upper boundary of a rising channel, 80,492 level (former support turned resistance), and the $80k psychological mark. This cluster significantly increases the likelihood of rejection on first attempt.

A pullback from current levels, followed by a break below 74,880 support, would argue that the rebound from 59,866 has completed, shifting focus back toward that low. Such a move would align with a broader medium-term bearish view and suggest that recent gains were part of a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal.

On the other hand, sustained break above $80k would mark a decisive shift in structure. It would open the path toward 38.2% retracement of 126,289 to 59,866 at 85,239, strengthening the case that a broader trend reversal is underway.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh increase from the 1.1650 support zone.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1710 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.3550 resistance.
• USD/JPY started a consolidation phase after a sharp decline to 155.50.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained supported above 1.1650 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD formed a base and started a fresh increase above 1.1700.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1710. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1849 swing high to the 1.1655 low.

However, the bears were active near the 1.1775 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level. The pair is now consolidating just below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and is well above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 1.1750. The first major resistance sits at 1.1775. The main resistance could be 1.1840. A close above 1.1840 could open doors for gains above 1.1865. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1920.

Immediate support is seen near 1.1700. The next support could be 1.1650. A close below 1.1650 might push the pair toward 1.1600. Any more losses could initiate a fresh move to 1.1550 in the coming days.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair is attempting a fresh increase, and a close above 1.3620 could trigger steady gains.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 - Forecast 51.2, versus 51.2 previous.
• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 – Forecast 52.2, versus 52.2 previous.