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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6630; (P) 0.6652; (R1) 0.6668; More...

AUD/USD jumps notably today but stays in consolidations below 0.6713. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3633; (P) 1.3657; (R1) 1.3682; More...

Further decline is expected in USD/CAD as long as 1.3717 minor resistance holds. Corrective pattern from 1.3845 is now in the third leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.3589 support. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3589 from 1.3790 at 1.3534.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9569; (P) 0.9582; (R1) 0.9600; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation from 0.9476 and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9476, and sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will bring retest of 0.9252 low next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.9252 should have completed at 0.9228. Medium term outlook remains bearish with 1.0095 resistance intact. Firm break of 0.9252 will resume the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 202.14; (P) 202.43; (R1)202.90; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 202.97. will pave the way to 100% projection at 206.56 next. On the downside, below 201.95 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 198.90 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 191.34 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.74; (P) 171.07; (R1) 171.43; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. Some consolidations could be seen first but further rally will remain in favor as long as 169.31 support hold, for 61.8% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 171.75. However, firm break of 169.31 will turn bias back to the downside for 167.52 support instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support from 55 D EMA indicates that the long term up trend is still in progress. Decisive break of 171.58 will confirm resumption and target 100% projection of 139.05 to 164.29 from 153.15 at 178.38. For now outlook will stay bullish as long as 164.01 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8430; (P) 0.8447; (R1) 0.8464; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral first and outlook remains bearish with 0.8482 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8429 minor support will bring retest of 0.8396 low first. Further break there will resume larger down trend to 0.8376 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376. Sustained break there will target 161.8% projection at 0.8211 next. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8643 resistance holds, even in case of stronger rebound.

• EURJPY stands well above uptrend line
• RSI flattens but MACD strengthens its momentum

EURJPY has rebounded off the long-term ascending trend line near 167.70, sending the market above the previous peak of 170.80. A successful jump above the 40-year high of 171.56 could help the pair to surge towards the next round numbers such as 172.00 and 173.00.

According to the technical oscillators, the RSI is flattening above the neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD is extending its positive momentum above its trigger and zero lines.

In the negative scenario, a slide beneath the 170.80 support and more importantly beneath the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 169.70, would take the market towards the 50-day SMA at 168.50. Falling below this area would help shift the focus to the downside towards 167.30, switching the outlook to neutral.

Overall, EURJPY has been bullish since December 2023. Near-term weakness is expected to remain until there is a rally above the multi-year high of 171.56. 

Short Term Elliott Wave in USDJPY shows incomplete bullish sequence from 6.4.2024 low favoring more upside. Up from 6.4.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 157.4 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Pullback in wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 156.92 and wave ((b)) ended at 157.38. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 155.7 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The pair extended higher again in wave 3 with internal subdivision as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 157.3 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 156.57. Pair then extended higher in wave (i) of ((iii)) towards 158.26 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 156.87.

Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 158.23 and pullback in wave ii ended at 157.59. Pair then extended higher in wave iii towards 159.12 and dips in wave iv ended at 158.65. Wave v higher ended at 159.93 which completed wave (iii). Pullback in wave (iv) ended at 158.71. Expect pair to extend higher a few more highs before ending wave (v) of ((iii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 155.66 low stays intact, dips should find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

UDSJPY 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3JBo0wahjk

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn stated on Wednesday that market expectations of the ECB reducing interest rates twice more this year, reaching 2.25% by 2025, are "reasonable," according to Bloomberg. The Finnish central bank chief emphasized the need to bring inflation back to 2% without significantly hindering economic activity. Following Rehn's comments, the EURUSD pair continued to face bearish pressure, nearing intraday lows of around 1.0710. His remarks have reinforced market sentiment that the ECB may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance. This has impacted the Euro, pushing it lower against the US Dollar – but for how long?

EURCAD – D1 Timeframe

The first thing that stands out evidently on the attached EURCAD daily timeframe chart is the trendline support, which at this time seems to be mounting ample pressure on the downward price movement. Secondly, we also spot a drop-base-rally demand zone, as highlighted by the rectangle, and the bullish array of the moving averages sends the message home. Worth noting is the fact that the demand zone lies snug within the target regions of our Fibonacci retracement tool.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bullish
• Target: 1.47152
• Invalidation: 1.45441

EURNZD – H4 Timeframe

Whilst the moving averages on the 4-hour timeframe of EURNZD seem to be in a bearish array, there also now is a trendline resistance that aligns almost perfectly with the slope of the 200-period moving average. There is also a QMR pattern on this chart, as seen from the sweep of the previous high, bearish break of structure, and now what seems to be a return to the order-block. The supply zone within the 88% region of the Fibonacci retracement zone is the final piece of the puzzle here. In the meantime, however, I will be looking to ride the bullish pressure of the return to the order-block move.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bullish
• Target: 1.76253
• Invalidation: 1.74182

EURUSD – D1 Timeframe (RECAP)

Since my last article on USD Majors, the price action on the daily timeframe of EURUSD seems to have been stalling ever since. The invalidation region remains intact, we’re also yet to see any sweep of liquidity that might warrant the need to revise the trade idea – so, we remain committed to the bullish sentiment unless the lower timeframes fail to present a worthy entry criterion.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bullish
• Target: 1.07812
• Invalidation: 1.06463

The Australian dollar (AUD) rallied after surprising inflation data for May came in higher than expected. Australia's annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% in May, up from 3.6% in April, surpassing the forecast of 3.8%. Core inflation also surged to 4.4%, marking its highest level in six months. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had already expressed concerns about inflation, and this spike increases the likelihood of another interest rate hike. Market expectations for an August rate hike jumped from 12% to 39%, and the futures market adjusted, eliminating the chance of a rate cut in 2024 and reducing the anticipated easing by the end of 2025.

AUDJPY – W1 Timeframe

On the weekly timeframe chart of AUDJPY, we can see that price has just reached the 100% Fibonacci expansion level of the previous swing. The measure of the Fibonacci expansion tool is shown clearly on the chart as the red dotted lines, while the purple horizontal lines mark the levels. Based on this, it is quite likely we get to see a reversal in the bullish price action on AUDJPY soon.

AUDJPY – H1 Timeframe

Based on the 100% expansion level on the weekly timeframe chart I have scaled down to the 1-hour timeframe in order to properly position for an entry. Since we already have a sentiment from the higher timeframe, we simply need to find an entry criteria on the lower timeframe. In this case, my entry criteria would be a breakout, and possible retest, of the wedge pattern as shown on the 1-hour chart here – you’d do well to wait for that as well.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target: 105.497
• Invalidation: 106.820