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Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.80; (P) 159.28; (R1) 159.87; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation continues below 160.45. Further rise is expected with 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) intact. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 153.80) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3475; (P) 1.3508; (R1) 1.3542; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in consolidations below 1.3598 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.3379 support intact, further rise is favor. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, firm break of 1.3379 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3158 low instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7782; (P) 0.7805; (R1) 0.7830; More….

USD/CHF is still extending consolidations above 0.7774 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.7933 resistance to bring another fall. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will resume the decline from 0.8041 to retest 0.7603 low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8059) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7128; (P) 0.7157; (R1) 0.7184; More...

AUD/USD is extending consolidations from 0.7221 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 0.7000 support. On the upside, above 0.7221 will extend the larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. However, break of 0.7000 will bring deeper fall back to 0.6832 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3638; (P) 1.3658; (R1) 1.3683; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside despite loss of momentum. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3708 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9157; (P) 0.9174; (R1) 0.9186; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and range trading continues below 0.9264. Further rise is in favor with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9280) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 214.80; (P) 215.12; (R1) 215.62; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral as consolidations continue below 215.98. Further rise is expected as long as 213.29 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.83) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.94; (P) 187.15; (R1) 187.40; More...

EUR/JPY is extending the consolidation pattern from 187.93 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall might be seen to 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87. On the upside, though, break of 187.93 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8684; (P) 0.8703; (R1) 0.8714; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidations continue below 0.8740. As long as 0.8675 support holds, further rise remains mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8740 will resume the rally from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Markets

Another round of TACO’s for everyone. US President Trump first extended the ceasefire deadline from April 21 to April 22 before announcing later it would continue indefinitely until Iran offers a new, unified proposal “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other”. Trump said he did so at the request of mediator Pakistan. The latest U-turn came on another day packed with mixed signals. A second round of US-Iran talks were scheduled for yesterday, but those fell apart before they even started. There was confusion whether or not Iran would send a delegation to Islamabad while vice-president Vance’s, who leads the US delegation, trip to Pakistan was first postponed, then paused and eventually cancelled. Meanwhile accusations of ceasefire violations were thrown in both directions. The US is also ramping up military presence in the region with a third aircraft carrier, the USS George HW Bush, three destroyers and about 10 000 troops expected to arrive towards the end of the month. With the (initial) deadline looming, it pushed oil prices up to more than $100. That’s going in reverse this morning again ($96.7). Stocks both in the US and Europe finished in the red but are preparing for a green(ish) opening, particularly on Wall Street. That said, the risk appetite is not as strong as it was on earlier Trump reversals, suggesting headline-trading fatigue, some lingering cautiousness or both. There’s indeed considerable uncertainty, not least because the US naval blockade continues to be in place. Iran’s foreign minister called it a violation of the ceasefire. The truce between Israel and Lebanon meanwhile is also increasingly fragile. Suffice it to say that there are too many moving variables to determine the outcome, especially on a daily basis. The US dollar is returning some of yesterday’s gains in technically insignificant trading. EUR/USD rises marginally to 1.175, DXY inches lower to 98.27. USD/JPY holds steady around Tuesday’s 159.3 close. Core bonds fell with the temporary oil price spike acting as an accelerant. US yields rose between 2.2 and 5.9 bps, flattening the curve. German rates added 0.1-6.4 bps in a similar shift. Gilt yields shot up almost 9 bps at the front. Inflation numbers in the country were more or less in line with expectations. A monthly 0.7% energy-related rise lifted the annual figure to 3.3% from 3%. Core inflation (3.1%) fell short of consensus (3.2%) but services CPI unexpectedly accelerated to 4.5% from 4.3%. Sterling barely moves (EUR/GBP 0.869), extending its long streak of uninspiring trading sessions. Apart from geopolitics, we’re looking at huge supply of ECB speeches, including from ECB president Lagarde tonight. Fed chair-to-be Warsh in its testimony before Congress yesterday had little concrete to offer (see also below). He steered clear of indicating short-term and/or aggressive rate reductions in a way president Trump would like him to. Warsh did say policy rates and the balance sheet should be working together. With him being against a bloated balance sheet one could see it as a hint for lower policy rates to compensate for the QT effect.

News & Views

The European Commission will today present and emergency energy package. Draft documents obtained by POLITICO show that the EU is primarily advising countries to use or tweaking existing laws. Proposed changes to subsidies rules will allow countries to cover up to 70% of the cost of wholesale power bills until December, and up to 50% of the extra fuel costs caused by the crisis for some sectors. The EC will also work with countries to develop targeted tax cuts to bring down energy bills. Other measures are more targeted at speeding up the EU’s climate agenda, increasing European coordination and reducing demand.

Fed chair nominee Warsh appeared in a testimony before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday. If confirmed, he said he would not be a “sock puppet” for US president Trump, vowing to be an independent actor in setting monetary policy. He said the central bank needed a new framework for dealing with persistent price pressures, without offering more specifics though it’s clear he wants a bigger role for (a leaner) Fed balance sheet. Warsh is not a big fan of forward guidance and suggested willingness to make changes to how the central bank communicates. Options include reducing the amount of post-meeting press conferences, limiting the number of speeches by Fed governors or modifying/abandoning quarterly economic forecasts and interest rate projections.