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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8568; (P) 0.8578; (R1) 0.8588; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point, and further rise is in favor with 0.8529 support intact. Rebound from 0.8497 is seen as at least correcting the fall from 0.8764. Above 0.8601 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8497 to 0.8577 from 0.8503 at 0.8632.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.9267 has completed, despite loss of downside momentum as seen in D MACD. As long as 0.8713 resistance holds, the down trend will remain in favor to resume through 0.8491 low at la later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6551; (P) 1.6572; (R1) 1.6599; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral first as range trading continues. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6677 will target 1.6742 first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.6127 and target 1.6844 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9748; (P) 0.9781; (R1) 0.9824; More..

EUR/CHF's rally from 0.9252 resumed by breaking 0.9785 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen towards 1.0095 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9689 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9535) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3561; (P) 1.3576; (R1) 1.3599; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3612 resistance will resume whole rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3897 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 1.3419 support will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.3357 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6523; (P) 0.6541; (R1) 0.6552; More....

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation above 0.6503 and intraday bias stays neutral. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6503 support will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0816; (P) 1.0840; (R1) 1.0856; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. More consolidations could be seen above 1.0801. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0857) holds. Below 1.0801 will resume the fall from 1.0980 to retest 1.0694 first. Break there will resume the decline from 1.1138 and target 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2611; (P) 1.2639; (R1) 1.2657; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. More consolidations could be seen above 1.2574. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2677) holds. Below 1.2574 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2517 structural support first. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9004; (P) 0.9024; (R1) 0.9060; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 0.8332 should target 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062. Firm break there will target 0.9243 key medium term resistance next. On the downside, below 0.8964 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8728 support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with breach of 151.85 temporary top. Decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, firm break of 150.99 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Japanese Yen breached its recent low against the broadly strong Dollar in Asian session today, but the selloff halted just before reaching 152 mark. The momentum of Yen's decline appears to be cushioned by Japan's heightened verbal intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a stern warning about Yen's depreciation, warning of "decisive steps" to support the currency. This phrase was used back in Autumn 2022, marking the last instance of Japan's direct intervention in the currency market to curb Yen's slide.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking to parliament, acknowledged the significant impact of currency fluctuations on the economy and pricing but maintained a cautious tone on monetary policy. His remarks lacked any hint of policy tightening plan, leaving the Yen without strong backing from policy adjustments. Ueda's only said that any future changes in monetary policy will hinge on the economic and price landscape at the time.

In the broader currency market, Swiss Franc stands out as this week's weakest performer, having already surpassed last week's lows against both Dollar and Euro. Yen is not far behind in its underperformance. Meanwhile, Dollar, despite being the third weakest for the week, shows potential for advancement amidst the current rebound. Australian Dollar leads as the strongest, followed by Euro and Sterling. New Zealand Dollar is mixed, but turned weaker in response to the government's grim economic forecast for the year.

Technically, further decline is expected in NZD/USD as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6048) holds. Break of 0.5894 temporary low will resume the fall from 0.6368. Next target is 100% projection of 0.6368 to 0.6037 from 0.6215 at 0.5884. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring stronger rebound back towards 0.6105 resistance.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.08%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.74%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.52%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.82%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0056 at 0.733. Overnight, DOW fell -0.08%. S&P 500 fell -0.28%. NASDAQ fell -0.42%. 10-year yield fell -0.019 to 4.234.

NZ government drastically cuts 2024 growth forecast to 0.1%, lowers inflation outlook

New Zealand government has made significant revisions to its economic forecasts, projecting a notably subdued GDP growth of just 0.1% for this fiscal year, as revealed in its latest budget statement. Additionally, inflation outlook for both 2024 and 2025 was revised downwards.

The government said a "wide range of data" collected since December highlighted "further deterioration in the economic outlook." The expected slowdown in economic activity materialized "sooner than expected," while inflationary pressures have "eased more than expected."

Specifically, GDP growth projections for 2024 have been significantly lowered from prior forecast of 1.5% to 0.1%. However, there is a silver lining with GDP growth forecast for 2025 being adjusted upwards from 1.5% to 2.1%.

On the inflation front, CPI forecast for 2024 was lowered from 4.1% to 3.3%, and for 2025, forecast was revised down from 2.5% to 2.2%.

Australia's monthly CPI holds steady at 3.4% in Feb

Australia monthly CPI was unchanged at 3.4% yoy in February. When stripping out volatile items and holiday travel, the CPI saw a slight deceleration, moving from 4.1% yoy to 3.8% yoy. However, a closer look at the core inflation measure, the annual trimmed mean CPI, reveals a slight uptick from 3.8% yoy to 3.9% yoy, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent.

The detailed breakdown of inflation contributors highlights showed that housing costs had the most substantial rise at 4.6% yoy. Food and non-alcoholic beverages also experienced a notable increase at 3.6% yoy. Additionally, alcohol and tobacco products saw a sharp price escalation at 6.1% yoy, and insurance and financial services costs surged by 8.4% yoy, the latter being the highest among the recorded sectors.

BoJ's Tamura stresses gradual withdrawal of stimulus for steady policy normalization

BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said that Japan's moderate economy recovery path is expected to continue, positive cycle of wage increases leading to higher inflation rates.

"The risk of our medium- and long-term forecasts being derailed is likely small," he remarked in a speech today.

He underscored the importance of a deliberate and gradual approach to policy normalization, ensuring that the transition away from aggressive monetary support is managed with precision and foresight.

"How to manage monetary policy ahead is very important to ensure we deftly roll back our massive stimulus program, and move slowly but steadily toward policy normalization," he articulated.

Central to Tamura's vision is the restoration of interest rate flexibility, positioning BoJ to effectively modulate demand and influence price dynamics through rate adjustments.

"In my view, the central bank's ultimate goal is to bring interest rates back to levels where they can be pushed up or down to adjust demand, and influence price moves," he stated.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with breach of 151.85 temporary top. Decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, firm break of 150.99 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Economic Indicators Update