Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.17; (P) 159.82; (R1) 160.39; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for some more consolidations, and further rally is still in favor. Above 160.45 will bring retest of 161.94 high. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 159.27) will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 157.94 support instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.97) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7969; (P) 0.7991; (R1) 0.8019; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 0.7603 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. On the downside, below 0.7951 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.7833 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8088) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1429; (P) 1.1476; (R1) 1.1509; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen above 1.1408. Further decline is expected with 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.1497) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

After surging to $119.7 on March 9, crude oil experienced a sharp decline, reaching $76.73 by March 11. This retreat unfolded in the form of a five-wave impulsive Elliott Wave structure, marking a decisive corrective phase. From the March 9 peak, wave (1) concluded at $96.25, followed by a rebound in wave (2) that terminated at $104.57. The subsequent decline in wave (3) reached $81.19, while wave (4) produced a modest recovery to $91.48. The final leg, wave (5), extended lower to $76.73, thereby completing wave ((A)) at a higher degree.

Currently, a corrective rally in wave ((B)) is underway, developing internally as a zigzag formation. From the termination of wave ((A)), the initial advance in wave (A) ended at $102.44. A subsequent pullback in wave (B) found support at $84.37. The ongoing rise in wave (C) carries potential to extend further, targeting the 100% to 123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave (A). This critical zone lies between $110.3 and $116.5, where renewed selling pressure may emerge. Should sellers reassert control in this region, oil prices could resume their decline in wave ((C)), provided the pivot at the $119.7 high remains intact.

Oil (CL) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

CL Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjcZlPwIGvc

In focus today

In the euro area, we receive the flash March inflation print. We expect HICP inflation will rise to 2.6% y/y (from 1.9%) while core inflation should fall slightly to 2.3% y/y (from 2.4%). The headline rise is driven by energy inflation, adding an estimated 0.9 p.p., with petrol prices up 15% m/m and diesel 28% m/m. Core inflation is expected to decline as the spike in Italian services inflation from the Winter Olympics reverses. The data is a key input for the ECB's April meeting, but we note that it only captures part of the first-round effects of the war and no second-round effects. Hence, the April inflation print on April 30 will likely be more important for the ECB's decision.

EU energy ministers will hold an informal video conference to coordinate their response to oil and gas market disruptions from the Iran war, amid heightened market uncertainty and national measures like Poland's petrol price cap and Spain's EUR5bn energy package.

In the central bank space, we have a string of ECB speeches as well as Federal Reserve speeches. There are four from ECB officials and three from Federal Reserve Officials. The market will as always be looking for comments on inflation, but also the negative impact on growth from the rise in oil prices.

In the US, the February JOLTS job openings report is due, offering the first labour market figure of the week. The stronger-than-expected January report reflected improved labour demand and fewer layoffs, supported by positive signals from online job postings.

In Sweden, Riksbank speeches are scheduled from Erik Thedéen at 8.00am and Per Jansson at 12.00pm, with the latter hosted by Danske Bank. Thedéen and Seim leaned hawkish at the last meeting, while Jansson, Hjelm, and Bunge remained dovish. Although it may be early for clear signals on the May meeting, with markets pricing a 50% chance of a May hike, we look forward to insights on their reaction function to supply shocks.

Overnight, China releases the private PMI manufacturing report from Rating Dog. Unlike the official NBS PMI, February's Rating Dog PMI was strong at 52.1. The Yicai high-frequency indicator suggests further strength in March, though the Iran war adds uncertainty.

In Japan, the Q1 Tankan business survey, due overnight, will provide key insights for the Bank of Japan ahead of its policy meeting. Rising energy prices and a weaker yen threaten to erode consumers' purchasing power, jeopardising a recovery.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, Tokyo's March core CPI rose to 1.7% y/y, below expected, as fuel subsidies offset rising costs. An index excl. fresh food and fuel rose 2.3% after a 2.5% gain in February. Analysts expect inflation to pick up due to surging oil prices and a weak yen, with markets pricing a 70% chance of an April rate hike. BOJ Governor Ueda hinted at potential action. Separate February data, including a 2.1% m/m drop in factory output and a 0.2% y/y decline in retail sales, offers largely outdated insights

In China, the official March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, the highest in a year, up from February's 49.0, signalling improved demand. Non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 50.1. While the stronger reading eases pressure on policymakers, analysts warn that surging energy prices from the Middle East war and global supply chain disruptions pose risks to sustained growth.

What happened yesterday

In the Middle East, Iran's parliamentary Security Commission has approved a plan to impose tolls on ships passing through the critical Strait of Hormuz (SOH). The plan includes measures to enhance security, regulate maritime navigation, and charge rial-denominated tolls, with a prohibition on vessels from the US and Israel. This development adds to tensions in the ongoing conflict, which has already disrupted oil shipments and intensified global market volatility. Amid these rising tensions, President Trump warned that the US would obliterate Iran's energy plants and oil wells if the SOH is not reopened to international shipping.

In the US, Fed Chair Powell signalled that higher energy prices resulting from the Iran war have not yet required immediate policy action, as the Fed can afford to wait and assess the war's economic and inflationary impacts. While inflation remains above the 2% target, longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored. Markets reacted by removing rate hike bets for this year. Fed's Williams echoed Powell, noting the current rate setting allows flexibility to monitor inflation pressures before acting.

In the euro area, the EU Commission's business sentiment survey indicates a sharp rise in selling price expectations for the next months in the industry for March, while services remained unchanged. The increase in industry expectations mirrors trends from 2021-2022 but remains below peak levels. Services, which typically lag industry, offer some reassurance for the ECB. Overall, the data aligns with PMI price trends and does not strongly point toward an April rate hike.

German CPI inflation rose in March, as expected, to 2.7% from 1.9% in February. The HICP measure rose marginally less than expected to 2.8% y/y (cons: 2.9%). German inflation rose to the highest level since January 2024, driven entirely by a 7.6% m/m surge in energy prices due to the Iran war. This increase is half the size of the March 2022 spike during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Core inflation remained stable at 2.5% y/y, with no impact beyond energy.

In Sweden, retail sales declined by 0.6% m/m in February 2026 compared with January. On a year-on-year basis, the calendar-adjusted retail trade volume grew by 2.4% in February. Sales of durables fell by 0.9%, while sales of consumables (excluding Systembolaget, the state-owned liquor store chain) remained flat.

Equities: Global equities had a steady run in European hours with "everything" in green. Upon US hours that sentiment shifted, leaving the MSCI world down 0.4%. S&P500 declined 0.4%, Nasdaq 0.7%, Russell2000 -1.5%. Stoxx600 was up 0.9%. Overnight, Asian equities are down, amid higher US futures, which up about 0.9%.

FI and FX: With no imminent signs of deescalation in the Middle East, asset vols remain at or close to year highs. That said, we have seen a notable change in price action this week with yields - both nominal and real yields - coming lower. This marks an important difference to recent weeks amid markets increasingly becoming concerned about the negative impact on growth from the war and the rising likelihood of central banks hiking into slowing economies. In FX markets, it has been a relatively calm start to the week albeit SEK has been a prominent underperformer amid renewed USD strength which has returned EUR/USD down below the 1.15 support level.

Yesterday was marked by a rebound in sovereign bonds on expectation that rising oil prices—which will send inflation soaring in the coming months—would also hit economic growth and, in turn, limit central banks’ ability to raise rates to the extent currently priced by markets. In other words, higher energy prices—and possible energy scarcity—could slow global economies enough to prevent central banks from tightening as aggressively.

A benchmark European 10-year yield moved lower after rising to its highest levels since 2011, the British 10-year gilt yield fell back below the 5% psychological mark, while the US 2-year yield—which best captures Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations—retreated to 3.80%, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said that longer-term US inflation expectations remained ‘in check’ despite the energy-led inflation wave already hitting the economy. ‘By the time the effects of a tightening monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you’re weighing on the economy at a time when it’s not appropriate’, he said.

In summary, bond investors—including large institutional players—considered that yields had risen enough to become attractive.

And that’s fair: slowing growth will likely be the consequence of this energy shock, alongside tighter monetary policy to address the resulting inflation spike. But first, central banks – at least some of them - will adjust their rates to fight inflation. Depending on the impact on growth, they may later have to ease policy again. However, jumping directly to the conclusion that central banks will soon loosen policy—and that lower yields are good news for equities—is far-fetched.

The Stoxx 600 rebounded nearly 1% yesterday, while the FTSE 100 gained 1.61%. In the case of the FTSE 100, the rally in energy and mining stocks made sense, but for European companies facing another energy shock and higher rates, I found yesterday’s optimism weakly supported as a basis for a sustainable rebound.

In fact, early CPI figures for March confirm that inflation in Germany jumped from 1.9% to 2.7% y-o-y, and 1.2% over the month. Unsurprisingly, rising oil prices were the main driver.

A separate survey from the European Commission suggested a notable increase in selling price expectations, undoubtedly linked to soaring energy costs.

Other euro area countries will release their CPI updates in the coming hours and will likely confirm energy-driven price pressures.

For those still in doubt, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have been insisting that they will act to rein in inflation—and they are not necessarily looking past the short-term spike (like Powell does). This means rate hikes could be on the table this year for the euro area.

So I can’t help but think that there could be more pain ahead for global businesses—pain from higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions—before any relief.

In the US, falling yields failed to help the S&P 500 consolidate earlier gains, and the index quickly came under selling pressure, and closed the session 0.39% down.

US and European are better bid and oil is coming down from an early-session peak at the time of writing on news that Trump told his aids that he wants to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But just before, mood was ugly on an Iranian struck on a Kuwaiti oil carrier near Dubai...

What’s interesting is that periods of economic slowdown don’t necessarily lead to a one-way market meltdown. Typically, market selloffs deepen into a recession and during its early months, after which looser central bank policies help markets recover. However, I feel that today’s uncertainty and negative developments have not yet been fully priced in to justify that conclusion. The Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory on Friday, while the S&P 500 is near 10% lower, hovering near correction levels. Rising energy prices are supportive for energy companies, but most other industries are facing higher operating costs and margin pressure—something that is not yet fully reflected in prices.

A FactSet chart shows that forward EPS continues to rise, driven by AI-related upgrades, resilient margins and strength in the energy sector—suggesting that markets are still pricing current earnings momentum while pushing the potential profit squeeze from higher costs further into the future.

The risk, therefore, is that markets are still buying today’s earnings story while choosing to worry about the oil shock tomorrow.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to surge. WTI is trading near $104 per barrel, while Brent crude flirts with $110pb. US gasoline prices have rebounded to $3.38 per gallon yesterday – the highest since the Iran war began. Donald Trump may have told his aids that he wants to stop the war, but a few hours before he had threatened to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure, and Houthi forces are now targeting alternative routes used to export oil from the Gulf amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices continue to support a stronger US dollar. Major currencies remained under pressure yesterday despite relatively dovish comments from Jerome Powell—confirming that divergence between the Fed and other, relatively more hawkish, central banks does not necessarily drive short-term FX moves. The EURUSD slipped below 1.15 despite the rebound in German CPI and Powell’s balanced remarks on long-term US inflation expectations. Softer oil prices could eventually reverse the dollar’s strength, but as long as oil prices remain elevated, the dollar is likely to benefit.

Gold rebounds on the back of falling sovereign yields after testing technical support last week—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 to January rally, which typically separates a continuation of the uptrend from a medium-term consolidation phase. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.

The question now is whether gold can regain its safe-haven status and inflation-hedging appeal if equity market losses accelerate.

This will likely depend on a combination of factors, including oil prices, the US dollar and bond yields. For now, selling pressure appears to be easing, but the risk of further downside remains.

Markets will therefore continue to be driven by headlines and oil price dynamics, and until there is meaningful progress toward peace, any rebound in equities, bonds or gold is likely to remain fragile.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3144; (P) 1.3213; (R1) 1.3253; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3867 resumed by breaking through 1.3216 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3216 from 1.3479 at 1.3077 first. Decisive break there could prompt downward acceleration through 1.3008 support to 100% projection at 1.2828. On the upside, above 1.3282 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3479 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

The global energy market has effectively shrugged off a Wall Street Journal report suggesting US President Donald Trump is exploring an Iran exit strategy. Brent oil stays above $110 after a remarkably shallow dip. Asian stocks also turned red after a brief relief bounce. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively blocked and the April 6 deadline for "complete obliteration" approaching, the current "skeptical hope" is being overwhelmed concerns over Oil supply risks.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is willing to wind down the military campaign even if the Strait is not fully reopened, aiming to avoid a prolonged conflict beyond his preferred four-to-six-week timeline. The administration is said to be pivoting toward a “containment” strategy, relying on prior damage to Iran’s naval and missile capabilities while shifting the burden of reopening maritime routes to diplomatic efforts and regional allies.

However, markets are showing clear skepticism toward this narrative. Brent continues to hold above 110, with the recent rally still on track to retest the 120 psychological level. The limited downside response reflects the fact that core risks remain unchanged—military operations continue and the Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed, leaving global supply conditions tight.

More importantly, the downside scenario remains asymmetric. If no agreement is reached by the April 6 deadline to reopen the Strait, the U.S. could escalate by targeting critical infrastructure, including desalination plants, oil refineries, and the power grid. Such a move would likely force the IRGC to "go for broke," attempting to sink remaining tankers to physically block the Strait with wreckage. Oil prices would than very likely shoot through the roof in this worst case scenario.

In currency markets, safe-haven demand remains evident. Yen is currently the strongest performers for the week so far, reflecting persistent risk aversion. Yen gains have been supported by intensified verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, reinforcing the 160 level in USD/JPY as a "Red Line". Swiss Franc is also regaining traction as a defensive asset, benefiting from broader uncertainty. Dollar remains firm overall, supported by both safe-haven demand and elevated energy-driven inflation expectations.

On the other hand, risk-sensitive currencies are under pressure. Kiwi is the weakest performer, followed by Sterling and Aussie. In the case of the Australian Dollar, risk-off sentiment is outweighing expectations for further RBA tightening with multiple hikes in the months ahead. Euro and Loonie are trading in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.01%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.53%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.25%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.02%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.011 at 2.349. Overnight, DOW rose 0.11%. S&P 500 fell -0.39%. NASDAQ fell -0.73%. 10-year yield fell -0.098 to 4.342.

RBA Minutes Highlight Excess Demand and Oil Shock as Case for Further Tightening

RBA raised rates to 4.10% in a split 5–4 decision, with minutes showing growing concern over oil-driven inflation risks. The Board signaled more tightening may be needed, despite uncertainty around growth and the Middle East conflict. Read More.

China PMIs Return to Expansion as Output and Orders Rebound, but Cost Pressures Surge

China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March, signaling a return to expansion as production and new orders improved. However, input costs surged sharply, while output prices lagged, pointing to growing margin pressure. Non-manufacturing activity also edged back into expansion. Read More.

NZ ANZ Business Confidence Tumbles to 32.5 as Cost Pressures Surge to Highest Since 2023

New Zealand business confidence tumbled in March as cost pressures surged to the highest since 2023, with more firms expecting to raise prices. Inflation expectations also climbed while activity outlook weakened, pointing to a growing stagflation risk. Read More.

Japan Tokyo CPI Core Weakens to 1.7% as Energy Subsidies Drag Inflation Lower

Tokyo CPI slowed to 1.7% in March, marking a second month below the BoJ’s 2% target as energy subsidies continued to suppress prices. However, the sharp slowdown in gasoline declines points to rising oil pressures beginning to offset policy support. The data highlight a fragile balance between near-term disinflation and emerging upside risks. Read More.

Japan Factory Output Contracts as Auto Weakness Weighs, Outlook Remains Uncertain

Japan industrial production fell -2.1% in February after a 4.3% rise in January, with weakness across most sectors led by autos. Retail sales also disappointed, pointing to soft demand, while unemployment edged lower to 2.6%. The data highlight a mixed outlook with fragile growth but stable labor conditions. Read More.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3144; (P) 1.3213; (R1) 1.3253; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3867 resumed by breaking through 1.3216 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3216 from 1.3479 at 1.3077 first. Decisive break there could prompt downward acceleration through 1.3008 support to 100% projection at 1.2828. On the upside, above 1.3282 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3479 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

China’s official PMIs showed a return to expansion in March, with Manufacturing PMI rising from 49.0 to 50.4, beating expectations of 50.3 and marking the strongest reading in a year. The rebound snapped two months of contraction, driven by a pickup in production and a sharp improvement in new orders, with export demand showing notable momentum.

Underlying details point to a partial recovery. The production index rose by 1.8 51.4. New orders climbed by 3.0 to 51.6. However, the recovery remains uneven, with sub-indices for employment, raw material inventories, and delivery times still in contraction.

At the same time, inflation pressures are building. The purchase price index surged from 54.8 to 63.9. Output prices also increased but at a more modest pace, indicating limited pricing power for firms.

Meanwhile, Non-Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.1, returning to expansion. The data point to a tentative recovery in activity, but one increasingly challenged by rising input costs and margin pressure.

RBA minutes at the Mrach meeting revealed a clear bias toward further near-term tightening, as policymakers judged that inflation remains too high and risks have increased following the recent surge in oil prices. Members noted that “inflation remained too high” and that the economy was still operating with "excess demand", with labour market conditions tightening slightly further beyond levels consistent with full employment.

A key shift in the discussion was the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation dynamics. Members agreed that the rise in oil prices would “increase inflation significantly in March,” while also acknowledging that higher energy costs would likely weigh on activity. However, they emphasized that monetary policy cannot offset the initial price shock, but must act to prevent it from becoming entrenched. In particular, tighter policy could “reduce the extent to which higher costs would be passed on to final prices.”

This underpinned the case for further tightening, with members agreeing that “further tightening in monetary policy would likely be required in the near term” and that it was “not clear that [financial conditions] were sufficiently restrictive.” The persistence of excess demand, combined with rising short-term inflation expectations, strengthened the argument for acting sooner rather than later.

At the same time, the Board acknowledged significant uncertainty, particularly around the evolution of the Middle East conflict and its implications for growth. Some members argued for holding rates steady to gather more information, citing risks that consumption could weaken and that labour market tightness may ease. However, the majority concluded that the upside risks to inflation warranted action, while emphasizing that future policy decisions would remain data-dependent.

RBA raised interest rate by 25bps to 4.10%, with 5-4 vote, at that meeting.

Full RBA minutes here.