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Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.6108 is tentatively seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.6125. Above 0.6831 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.6437) and above. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6108 will resume the larger down trend from 1.8554.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.6984) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/CHF's fall from 0.9264 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Rebound from 0.8979 should have completed at 0.9264. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 0.8979 low first. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9167 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9252) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.

EUR/USD began the week around 1.1600. The main currency pair closed last week virtually unchanged. Markets continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Despite ongoing uncertainty, a series of conflicting signals from the US and Iran has bolstered investor hopes for a possible diplomatic agreement.

At the same time, oil prices remain approximately 50% higher than pre-conflict levels. This dynamic continues to sustain inflationary pressure, forcing major central banks to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed officials still allow for the possibility of additional rate hikes, particularly if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target.

Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

US markets will be closed on Monday, so volatility in EUR/USD is expected to be minimal.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1616, currently extending up to 1.1640. A move lower to 1.1600 (testing from above) is likely, followed by a rise towards 1.1660. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of the next growth wave to the 1.1640 level. A decline to 1.1600 is likely, followed by a rise to 1.1660, and another decline to 1.1555. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards to 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading quietly at the start of the week, with markets caught between geopolitical hopes and persistent inflationary pressures. While conflicting signals from the US and Iran have raised expectations of a potential diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices remain sharply elevated, around 50% above pre-conflict levels, keeping central banks on alert. FOMC minutes revealed that most Fed officials still see the possibility of additional rate hikes if inflation stays above target, and markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point hike by year-end. With US markets closed for a holiday, volatility is expected to remain subdued. Technically, near-term downside towards 1.1600 and potentially 1.1555 appears likely before any potential bounce.

Gold and Silver rebounded notably today as oil prices extended their sharp decline and markets cautiously increased bets that at least a US-Iran ceasefire expansion/extension may be approaching.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged as much in New Delhi, saying there was a “pretty solid thing on the table” involving reopening the strait and entering “a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump described during the weekend that the arrangement as a “Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE” that had been “largely negotiated.”

Meanwhile, it's also reported that Iran had agreed “in principle” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade and Tehran disposing of its highly enriched uranium. But the phrase “in principle” is doing enormous work right now. There is still no confirmation on what the actual agreement looks like, who controls transit through Hormuz, or whether enriched uranium disposal terms can realistically be finalized.

That combination of cautious optimism and lingering skepticism explains why precious metals are rebounding without fully breaking out. Markets are not yet pricing genuine normalization of global energy flows. Oil may be falling, but traders still want proof that Hormuz will truly reopen before aggressively unwinding geopolitical premiums across markets.

Technically, Gold's fall from 4889.24 are seen as a corrective three-wave move. Firm break of 4589.16 resistance will argue that it has already completed at 4453.47. In this case, further rise should be seen to 4773.50 resistance to confirm this bullish case.

In case of another decline, strong support should be seen from 61.8% retracement of 4098.45 to 4889.24 at 4400.53 to contain downside.

For Silver, break of 78.87 resistance will suggest that fall from 89.37 has completed at 73.08, ahead of 70.83 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 60.97 to 89.37 at 71.81). Rise from 73.08 would then be seen as the second leg of the sideway pattern from 89.37, and should target this resistance first.

Rejection of 78.87 might bring another fall, but mentioned 70.83/71.81 should hold to bring rebound.

Overview: EURUSD opened with a bullish gap, reclaiming 1.1600, yet caution remains warranted as the pair trades below a dense SMA cluster and the uptrend line, keeping the near-term bias neutral despite the rebound from last week’s 1.1575 low.

Momentum: Momentum is still subdued, with the RSI and MACD in negative territory, though the RSI is edging higher, suggesting early signs of stabilization.

Bullish scenario: A decisive break above the 20-day SMA just below 1.1700 - around 1.1685, could pave the way for a retest of monthly highs near 1.1787, and potentially the April 17 peak at 1.1845.

Risk: A break below 1.1600 may reinforce the neutral outlook in the near term, while a breach of 1.1575 could trigger renewed downside pressure.

GBP/USD is showing positive signs above 1.3440 and 1.3460. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses below 0.8680.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

The British Pound started a fresh increase above 1.3420 to enter a positive zone.

There is a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3450 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.

EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8660 pivot level.

There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8650 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above 1.3350. The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.3400 against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3440. The pair even climbed above 1.3480. A high was formed at 1.3490, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3395 swing low to the 1.3490 high.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3490. The next hurdle for the bulls could be 1.3500. A close above 1.3500 could open the doors for a move toward 1.3550. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.3600.

On the downside, the bulls might remain active near 1.3450. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3450. If there is a downside break below 1.3450, the pair could accelerate lower.

The first major support could be at 1.3430 and the 61.8% Fib retracement, below which the pair could test 1.3470. The next key area for the bulls could be 1.3415, below which the pair could test 1.3395. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.3350.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above 0.8700. The Euro traded below 0.8680 against the British Pound.

The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair even declined below 0.8660 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 0.8630, and the pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8730 swing high to the 0.8630 low.

The pair is now facing resistance near a connecting bearish trend line at 0.8650. The next major barrier for the bulls could be 0.8665 and the 38.2% Fib retracement.

A close above 0.8665 might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8670. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8730 pivot. The main hurdle for the bulls might be at 0.8780.

Immediate support could sit near 0.8630. The first key zone migbt be at 0.8600. A downside break below 0.8600 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 0.8565.

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Key takeaways

• Global risk sentiment improved sharply after senior US officials signalled that a US-Iran peace agreement may be nearing completion, triggering strong gains in US equity futures and sending the US dollar lower.
• The US economy is showing increasing stagflationary pressures as consumer sentiment collapsed to a record low while inflation expectations continued to rise, placing new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh under immediate policy pressure.
• Asia Pacific markets rallied on easing geopolitical fears, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a fresh all-time high, while Southeast Asia’s accelerating shift toward biofuels is beginning to create broader food supply and inflation risks across the region.
• Chart of the day: WTI crude bearish break below 50-day moving average with key short-term resistance at $100.80/bbl. Potential near-term weakness may expose intermediate supports at $90.50 and $87.60.

Top macro headlines

• US officials signalled an imminent US-Iran peace deal: In contrast to US President Donald Trump, who stated earlier on Sunday that he told his representatives “not to rush” into any deal with Iran, senior US officials highlighted that the US and Iran are closing in on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The development triggered an intraday rally in S&P 500 (+0.8%) and Nasdaq 100 (+1.3%) E-mini futures during Monday’s Asia opening session.
• US consumer sentiment plunges to an all-time record low: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 44.8 in May, the lowest level on record, falling below the pandemic and 2008 financial crisis troughs. The collapse is directly tied to soaring gasoline prices approaching $5 a gallon nationwide due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
• Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair amid stagflation: Kevin Warsh officially took the helm of the Federal Reserve on Friday. He assumes leadership of a central bank navigating a difficult environment where surging fuel costs are driving up inflation while rapidly eroding consumer demand.
• Gold surges as dollar weakens: Spot gold prices rose 1.2% to $4,564/oz on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar and lower oil prices due to renewed optimism over an imminent US-Iran peace deal.
• Southeast Asia pivots to biofuels, threatening food supply: Cut off from Middle Eastern energy by the Strait of Hormuz closure, Southeast Asian nations are shifting palm oil and local crops into diesel and gasoline blends. This rapid transition is squeezing regional supplies for cooking oil, animal feed and agricultural exports.

Key macro themes

• Geopolitical whiplash and energy uncertainty: Conflicting messaging between US officials over the US-Iran peace process continues to create volatility. While oil prices initially hit two-week lows on optimism surrounding negotiations, the lack of a finalized agreement means the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, perpetuating the global supply shock.
• Stagflationary pressures worsen: With consumer sentiment at record lows and one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8%, according to the final May University of Michigan survey, the US economy is flashing classic stagflation warning signs. Rising gasoline prices are disproportionately impacting lower-income consumers and severely complicating the Fed’s policy options.
• Food versus fuel crisis in emerging markets: The prolonged energy shock is forcing structural shifts across emerging markets. Southeast Asia’s increasing use of crops for fuel production highlights how the geopolitical oil crisis is spilling over into global agricultural and food supply chains, compounding inflation risks.

Global market impact (last 48 hours)

Equities: The S&P 500’s eight-week rally is showing signs of potential buyer exhaustion according to several technical indicators. Even if a US-Iran peace deal is finalized, markets may still face a “sell the news” reaction as June approaches, a month historically associated with softer equity performance.

Fixed Income: Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult bond market backdrop. With US long-term five-year inflation expectations surging to 3.9%, the highest level since October 2025 according to May’s University of Michigan survey data, Treasury yields remain highly sensitive to any further energy-driven inflation shocks.

FX: The US dollar weakened over the weekend, offering a modest reprieve to emerging market currencies while making dollar-priced commodities such as gold and silver more affordable for international buyers.

Commodities: Oil prices initially hit two-week lows on optimism surrounding peace negotiations, but markets remain highly reactive to Trump’s subsequent “do not rush” remarks. Spot gold rose 1.2% to $4,564/oz, while spot silver surged 3.1% to $77.85/oz.

Asia Pacific impact

• Stock markets and regional security: Major Asia Pacific equity markets started the week on a bullish footing, tracking gains in US futures. The Nikkei 225 surged 3.1% to a fresh intraday all-time high of 65,330, while China A50 (+0.7%), ASX 200 (+0.6%) and STI (+0.6%) also advanced. Regional security developments will remain in focus this week with the Quad foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday, followed by the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday.
• Commodities and food security: Indonesia and Malaysia’s rapid shift toward higher biodiesel blends to offset lost Middle Eastern oil supply is tightening cooking oil availability. The diversion is expected to push food inflation higher and disrupt regional export balances.
• Diplomatic realignment: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to visit Japan to strengthen bilateral ties, reflecting broader regional efforts to secure energy cooperation and maritime security amid ongoing global instability.

Top 2 events to watch today

1. US-Iran peace deal news flows – Impact: All asset classes
2. Singapore Core Inflation (Apr) – 1:00 SGT (consensus: 1.7% y/y, Mar: 1.7%)
   Impact: USD/SGD, SGD crosses, STI

Chart of the day – WTI crude bearish break below 50-day moving average

Fig. 1: West Texas oil CFD minor trend as of 25 May 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The price action of the West Texas oil CFD, a proxy for WTI crude oil futures, staged an intraday bearish breakdown below its 50-day moving average during Monday’s Asian opening session. This marks the first confirmed breakdown after price action previously tested the 50-day moving average on 6 May and 17 April 2026.

Hourly RSI momentum remains in bearish territory, with oversold conditions visible but no bullish divergence signal emerging yet.

Watch the $100.80 short-term pivotal resistance, which is also close to the 50-day moving average. Failure below this level could expose the next intermediate supports at $90.50 and $87.60.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above $100.80 would negate the bearish scenario and open the door for a squeeze higher toward the next intermediate resistances at $105.75 and $109.35.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD dipped further before the bulls appeared near 1.1575.
• It traded above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1610 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD climbed higher above the 1.3450 resistance zone.
• Gold started a consolidation phase above the $4,450 support.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained in a bearish zone below 1.1720 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD even dipped below 1.1620 before the bulls appeared.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded as low as 1.1576 and recently started a recovery wave. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1787 swing high to the 1.1576 low.

Besides, the pair traded above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1610. On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 1.1655. The first major resistance could be 1.1685, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1787 swing high to the 1.1576 low.

A close above 1.1700 could open doors for gains above 1.1720. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1800. If there is another decline, the pair could find bids near 1.1600.

The first major support sits near the 1.1575 level. The next support could be 1.1550. A close below 1.1550 might initiate a drop to 1.1500. Any more losses might open the doors for a drop toward the 1.1465 zone.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair started a decent increase and was able to clear the 1.3450 resistance zone.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• ECB's Sleijpen speech.

Outside developments surrounding the US-Iran negotiations, this week’s largest FX event risks may come from Oceania, where traders face a potentially divergence between the policy outlooks of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Reserve Bank of Australia. While the RBNZ is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% on Tuesday, markets increasingly see risks that the central bank delivers a more hawkish message than currently priced. By contrast, Wednesday’s Australian CPI report could expose downside risks for the Aussie if inflation fails to justify further RBA tightening expectations. The risks are asymmetric.

For New Zealand, the danger for markets is not that the RBNZ hikes this week. Almost nobody expects that. The real danger is that the central bank sounds far more worried about inflation than traders currently assume. Elevated oil prices and imported inflation risks are beginning to unsettle economists, policymakers, and markets alike. The latest NZIER Shadow Board already exposed those cracks, with three members openly calling for an immediate hike because “the real interest rate has remained low for a prolonged period.”

If Governor Anna Breman or the new economic projections deliver a higher OCR track, signals rates could rise toward 3.00%-3.25% by early 2027, or reveals a meaningful internal split pushing for hikes, NZD could reprice aggressively.

That possibility matters because markets are nowhere near consensus on where New Zealand rates are ultimately heading. Some banks still expect only one additional hike over the next year, while others see a full 100bps tightening cycle. Westpac is even more aggressive. That leaves NZD exposed to a violent adjustment if the RBNZ confirms that inflation fears tied to the energy shock are becoming more persistent rather than temporary.

Australia, meanwhile, looks far less comfortable. The Aussie spent weeks building a sizeable hawkish premium as traders embraced the idea that the Reserve Bank of Australia might eventually push rates toward 4.70% by late 2026. But April jobs data changed the mood. Cracks are beginning to appear in the labor market, and suddenly the RBA no longer looks eager to keep on tightening unless inflation genuinely explodes higher again.

Wednesday’s CPI report therefore carries a very different risk profile for AUD. Headline inflation is expected to rise from 4.6% to 4.8%, while trimmed mean CPI is seen edging from 3.3% to 3.4%. But the market’s problem is that expectations are already elevated. The RBA now faces a much higher hurdle for another hike because policymakers do not want to tighten into a slowing economy unless they absolutely must. If core inflation undershoots even modestly, the hawkish premium supporting AUD could evaporate very quickly.

That is why AUD/NZD suddenly looks dangerous. Near 1.2200, the cross has already started flashing technical warning signs, with bearish divergence developing on D MACD as upside momentum fades.

Resistance near 100% projection of 1.0759 to 1.1634 from 1.1412 at 1.2287 could become a major ceiling if the RBNZ surprises hawkishly while Australian inflation disappoints.

Decisive break below 1.2113 support would strongly suggest that a medium-term top is already in place, opening a much deeper slide toward 1.1922 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1412 to 1.2246 at 1.1927).