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Bitcoin: ⬇️ Sell

• Bitcoin broke round support level 80000.00
• Likely to fall to support level 60000.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency falling sharply after the price broke the round support level 80000.00, the support level 74342.00 (yearly low from 2025) and the weekly support trendline from 2023.

Each of these breakouts accelerated the active impulse waves 1 and (C).

Given the strongly bearish sentiment seen across cryptocurrency markets today, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to fall toward the next support level 60000.00.

Ethereum: ⬇️ Sell

• Ethereum broke round support level 2000.00
• Likely to fall to support level 1725.00

Ethereum cryptocurrency recently broke the support zone between the support level 2120.00 (former multi-month low from June) and the round support level 2000.00.

The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave C of the multi-month downward ABC correction (B) from August.

Ethereum can be expected to fall toward the next support level 1725.00 (former low from May and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).

• ECB decided to leave its key policy rates unchanged with the deposit facility rate at 2.00% as widely expected by markets and consensus.
• Lagarde accentuated the positive factors of the economy such as low unemployment while downplaying the role of the inflation undershooting and strengthened euro.
• We maintain our call that the ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% throughout both 2026 and 2027.

The ECB left the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% as expected by both markets and analysts. The press release was short with the guidance paragraph similar to December. Interestingly, it was the positive aspects of the economy like low unemployment, solid private balance sheets and increased public spending that was accentuated despite inflation declining to 1.7% in January.

During the press conference Lagarde further emphasised the positive aspects, with limited reference to negative factors like tariffs. On inflation she focused on energy base effects and one-offs as the reason for lower inflation in January while stressing stable underlying indicators and most medium-term inflation expectations at 2%. She noted that the ECB has projected inflation below 2% in 2026 for a long time and that the 1.7% observed in January was consistent with the September staff projections despite coming in lower than the December projections. Hence, there still seems to be a clear bias towards holding the deposit rate steady despite inflation being below the 2% target.

Regarding the exchange rate, Lagarde stated that the ECB does not target specific rates but acknowledges its significance for inflation. The governing council discussed the exchange rate moves particularly against the USD and observed that the appreciation has occurred since March, and that no recent developments have raised concerns. The impact of the higher EUR/USD is already factored into the baseline projections. Hence, Lagarde clearly downplayed the euro strengthening and gave a very neutral answer as we had expected.

Lagarde also mentioned that the ECB is taking steps on reframing repo lines with the hopes of an announcement within the next few days. More specifically, she mentioned that the ECB is in the progress on reframing repo lines. Specifically opening up access and making them more attractive to other national central banks outside the euro area and Europe.

We maintain our call that the ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% throughout both 2026 and 2027. Higher than expected growth and lower unemployment reduces the need for cuts in 2026 despite inflation falling below target. With inflation also projected below target in 2027 we do not expect ECB to hike rates. On the strategy side, we maintain our long-held payer bias in the short end of the EUR swap curve given the positive growth outlook, tight labour markets and the outlook of an increase in public spending in e.g. Germany.

• The Bank of England kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%.
• The vote split was 5-4, which was a dovish surprise.
• The new economic outlook for the UK entails less growth and inflation.
• We continue to aim for the next rate cut in April and pencil in another cut in November.

The Bank of England (BoE) kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% as expected. The decision was taken with a 5-4 vote, which was a closer call than expected and as such the probability of a rate cut in March and of several cuts has increased in our opinion. With two labour market reports and two inflation prints ahead of the March meeting, much can still happen by then.

Dissenting to the decision to hold rates were Dhingra, Taylor, Ramsden and Breeden, with the latter two as surprise moves, considering how data, if anything, has come in on the hawkish side since the December meeting. In the MPC member views, they both highlighted new analysis in the monetary policy report as a key reason why upside risks to inflation have diminished. Here BoE staff find that "structural changes in wage-setting will not keep adding to inflationary pressures".

In its monetary policy report, the new BoE outlook has a more dovish tone with both GDP and inflation forecasts lower and unemployment higher compared to November. CPI Inflation is now expected at 1.7% in 2027Q1 vs. 2.2% in the November report, while annual GDP growth has been revised 0.3pp lower to 1.2%. We highlight that recent PMI data had a particularly more hawkish flavour, with composite PMI at its highest level in three years and price indices suggesting more sustained inflation pressures. Upcoming data will judge what to make of this.

BoE call. Once again, the timing of the next rate cut is coming down to Governor Bailey. He clearly looks ready to cut rates further and said he finds the two cuts currently priced by markets as fair. The timing will hinge on incoming data, and we expect the bar for cutting further has been raised as the Bank Rate has closed in on neutral levels. We continue to aim for the next rate cut in April and pencil in another one in November.

Market reaction. EUR/GBP traded a bit higher on announcement, supporting our expectation for a further weakening of GBP. We aim for EUR/GBP at 0.89 levels on a 12M horizon on decreasing rate differentials, relatively weaker growth outlook in the UK and positive correlation to a USD negative environment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3622; (P) 1.3677; (R1) 1.3712; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3867 short term top is in progress. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.3482). Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger scale correction, and target 1.3342 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3732 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.3867. Firm break there will resume larger up trend towards 1.4284 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is resuming by breaking through 1.3787 high. Further rally should be seen to 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1786; (P) 1.1812; (R1) 1.1833; More….

EUR/USD is still gyrating in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 1.1774 will extend the fall from 1.2081 short term top to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1724). Firm break there will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2 psychological level, and target 1.1576 support. On the upside, above 1.1893 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 1.2081. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1458) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7754; (P) 0.7765; (R1) 0.7785; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 0.7816 will resume the rebound from 0.7603 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 0.7905). On the downside, below 0.7713 minor support will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and resuming. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8166) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.03; (P) 156.49; (R1) 157.34; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Rise from 152.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Further rebound should be seen to retest 159.44 next. On the downside, below 155.51 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.59) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8623; (P) 0.8636; (R1) 0.8660; More…

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8611 extended higher today but stays below 0.8744 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 0.8744 will argue that fall from 0.8863 has completed as a correction. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for retesting 0.8863, with prospect of resuming larger up trend. Nevertheless, on the downside, decisive break of 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618) will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8625) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.