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Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Some consolidations should be seen below 217.99 first. But further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 214.44) holds. Above 217.99 will resume larger up trend to 220.90 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 207.89) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 186.30 will resume the rebound from 182.01 to retest 187.93 high. On the downside, break of 183.14 will target 182.10 support next.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.76) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8863 at 0.8466. Downside could be contained there considering loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. On the upside, above 0.8539 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But recovery should be limited by 0.8601 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 (2024 low) to 0.8863 (2025 high) at 0.8618. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201 (2022 low). For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8863 hold.

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.6306 support holds. Above 1.6617 will extend the rebound from 1.6108 towards 1.6842 key structural resistance. However, firm break of 1.6306 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.6108.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.9176 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 0.9234 will bring retest of 0.9265 resistance first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. However, decisive break of 0.9176 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall back to 0.9094 support.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term falling trend line resistance indicates that 0.8979 is already a medium term bottom. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, rise from there should at least be reversing the fall from 0.9928, with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance will add more credence to this case. For now risk will remain on the upside as long as 0.9094 support holds, in case of retreat.

Oil is back in the driver's seat, and both the pound and the aussie are feeling its grip. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in June, but with UK inflation at 2.8% and crude oil climbing on renewed Middle East tensions, markets now lean towards a hike before year-end. Down under, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% after three straight increases, with core inflation stuck at 3.6%, keeping the door open for further tightening. Two hawkish central banks, one shared inflationary culprit—yet it's the existing 60-basis-point rate gap in Australia's favour that is giving GBP/AUD its current shape, with the pair holding firm near the 1.93 handle as traders watch which bank blinks first.

Technical Outlook

GBP/AUD pits two currencies backed by hawkish central banks against each other. After a sharp downtrend, the pair found a floor in May 2026 and has since reversed into a medium-term uptrend as sterling claws back ground against the aussie. Price is now testing a key resistance zone that has previously capped upside attempts, making the coming sessions pivotal.

Bullish Scenario

Several sessions of strong bullish momentum have kept sterling supported. The pair is testing a crucial resistance zone at 1.9350–1.9400, which has rejected price before.

A confirmed break above could open the path towards the next resistance at 1.9520–1.9550.

Such a breakout would likely require fundamental support, such as further escalation in the Middle East or an even more hawkish BoE.

Bearish Scenario

Price could reject the resistance zone once again, reinforcing it as a key barrier.

A bearish RSI divergence on the 4H chart adds weight to this scenario, with price posting higher highs while the RSI prints lower highs—a sign of fading momentum.

The ascending trendline is now the nearest relevant support; a break below could expose the intermediate zone at 1.9080–1.9120, where price may pause and consolidate.

Should tensions ease or fresh UK political developments emerge, sterling could lose ground, breaking below this zone to test the next support at 1.8780–1.8820.

Ultimately, GBP/AUD's next move will hinge on geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, alongside these key technical levels. Which of the two currencies will show greater strength in the sessions ahead?

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• Rumours of talks between the US and Iran are dragging down the USD index.
• The ECB intends to act decisively on raising interest rates.

The US dollar continued to retreat following Donald Trump’s statement that Iran is seeking a deal. Investors have encountered such rhetoric from the US president many times since April, and each time, escalation has been followed by de-escalation. A rise in the S&P 500 and Brent crude pulling back from local highs, coupled with falling Treasury bond yields, is creating headwinds for the USD index.

The oil rally has revived the prospect of monetary tightening in European countries. The futures market assesses the probability of two rounds of monetary tightening by the ECB and the Bank of England in 2026 as 50%. It puts the probability at 90% that the European Central Bank will raise its deposit rate in September. The minutes of its June meeting noted that inflation would remain above the 2% target in the first half of 2027, even if monetary policy were tightened three times by that point.

The ECB came under heavy criticism for being slow to raise interest rates in 2022 amid soaring consumer prices. It does not want to make the same mistake again, although the situation is now different from four years ago, with the eurozone economy weaker, and borrowing costs higher. Nevertheless, fears that rising energy prices will become embedded in core inflation and that inflationary expectations are pushing the European Central Bank to take decisive action.

The futures market is pricing in only a 40% probability of two Fed rate hikes, which is lower than for the ECB, and playing into the hands of the bulls on EURUSD.

In fact, the markets are focusing on TACO rather than the actions of central banks. Brent has stabilised above $76 per barrel. Although traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt and the number of tankers passing through has fallen to 25 from 30–50 in recent days, hopes for talks between the US and Iran are preventing oil prices from rising further.

The weakness of the US dollar has allowed the bears on USDJPY to mount a counterattack. Satsuki Katayama further fuelled the pullback. The Finance Minister’s call for pension funds, including the GPIF, to increase their investments in Japanese assets proved more effective than verbal interventions.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has reached $2.2T, rising again after a brief pause. This steady increase has formed a smooth upward trend since 8 July, which appears to be part of a broader rebound from the lows seen at the end of June. The top performers among the most actively traded coins over the past 24 hours were IOTA (+7.9%), Aave (+6.8%) and Zcash (+6.7%). Tron (-0.2%), Theta Network and Hedera (both 0%) underperformed the market, though none saw any significant declines, indicating broad-based growth.

Bitcoin has returned to the intermediate local highs around $64K, with increased buyer interest during dips to $62K. And this resilience from the flagship cryptocurrency is quite positive news for the entire market. Admittedly, significant resistance still lies ahead, but it is quite possible that over the weekend, due to reduced market liquidity, levels above $66K may also give way, drawing in more active participation from risk-taking buyers in response to technical reversal signals.

Ethereum’s recovery stalled after reaching the 50-day moving average region near $1,800 at the start of the month. Resistance is further reinforced by the fact that the coin reversed around this level last month and, prior to that, in February, found support here. ETHUSD failed to quickly confirm a break of the downtrend following the rebound from June’s lows, as the previous support level has now become significant resistance. A sustained move above the 50-day moving average at $1,770 could signal a short-term bullish trend, whilst a firm rise above $1,800 would confirm it.

News Background

Bitcoin has been trading below its realised value of $76,600 for five months now. Such a prolonged period of undervaluation has occurred only a few times in history and has often preceded the formation of a long-term market bottom, according to Glassnode.

According to CryptoQuant, USDC reserves on Binance have fallen by 21.6% over the past month, whilst abnormal one-day USDT outflows have been recorded on the Ethereum network. Such a significant withdrawal of liquidity deprives the market of buying power and makes it more vulnerable to volatility.

Michael Selig, Chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has described Bitcoin as “one of the most anti-fragile assets”, having survived repeated market upheavals and tough measures by the authorities. In his view, BTC should be regarded as a commodity, similar to gold, silver or oil. The CFTC Chair has called on Congress to expedite passage of the CLARITY Act.

Crypto custodian BitGo is set to launch quantum-resistant Bitcoin wallet tools for institutional clients in the coming weeks, including address risk assessment, automatic transfer of funds from vulnerable wallets and a new UTXO selection method.

Trading volume on the Robinhood Chain DEX reached a record $564 million a week after its launch, amid the hype surrounding meme coins. The layer-two (L2) network is built on Arbitrum and focuses on real-world assets (RWAs).

The FxPro Analyst Team

USD/JPY fell to 161.67 on Friday, with the yen fully recovering its losses from the beginning of the week. Market participants are once again increasing expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, following the national currency's recent move to nearly 40-year lows.

Investors are also awaiting the release of official intervention data later this month to determine whether the Bank of Japan's actions were behind the yen's sharp – though brief – gains in recent weeks.

Fresh macroeconomic data has attracted additional attention. Japan's producer prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, marking the fastest pace since March 2023. Cost pressures remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict and the significant weakening of the yen.

At the same time, the Japanese currency found support from lower oil prices following reports that the US and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations despite the recent escalation. The decline in oil prices prompted a retreat in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, while also easing concerns about rising import costs for Japan, which remains one of the largest buyers of Middle Eastern oil.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 161.57 level, currently extending up to 162.62. A decline towards 161.30 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 162.62, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 161.20, with a possible extension to 161.16. A move higher towards 162.62 is expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating increasing short-term upside momentum.

Conclusion

The yen has fully recovered its losses from the start of the week, supported by renewed expectations of potential Japanese intervention and lower oil prices following signs of US–Iran peace negotiations. Producer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and currency weakness. However, falling oil prices eased concerns over Japan's energy import costs and contributed to a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, USD/JPY may see further downside towards 161.30 in the near term, but the broader uptrend remains intact, with potential for a rebound towards 162.62 and beyond. The market's focus now turns to official intervention data for confirmation of recent central bank activity.

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) June meeting, released on 30 June, suggested that policymakers are not yet ready to rule out further policy tightening. Board members noted persistent excess demand and broad-based inflationary pressures across the economy, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase if required. Against this backdrop, the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States continues to support the Australian dollar, particularly as markets have scaled back expectations for further tightening by the Fed in the coming months. This combination of a relatively hawkish RBA and a more cautious Fed has helped underpin demand for the Australian dollar, although further macroeconomic data from both economies will likely be needed to reinforce this trend.

Technical Picture

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD recovered after declining from the 0.7080 area to June lows near 0.6865. During the rebound, the pair broke above its descending trendline, which some market participants may interpret as a sign that the previous downtrend has come to an end.

The pair is currently trading above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 0.6930 and is approaching the local high around 0.6960. Below the current price lies the Point of Control (POC) at approximately 0.6896, followed by the lower boundary of the market profile at 0.6887. This area could be viewed by buyers as a potential support zone.

Beneath this range sits the green support level 0.6865, representing the next significant reference point should a deeper correction develop. The RSI + MAs indicator remains close to the equilibrium zone, with readings of 55, 51, and 53. The moving averages are broadly flat, suggesting a lack of strong momentum and indicating that the market may be pausing before choosing its next direction.

Summary

The pair's position above the market profile and the break of the descending trendline may be viewed as supportive for buyers. However, the approach towards the 0.6960 resistance area could limit further gains unless additional fundamental catalysts emerge.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.