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Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.3300 should extend to retest 1.3657 resistance first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.3158. On the downside, below 1.3412 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. But risk remains on the downside with 0.7906 resistance intact. Below 0.7807 will target 0.7760 first. Firm break there will resume the fall from 0.8041, and target 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7906 at 0.7741.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8035) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

AUD/USD is still bounded in range below 0.7183 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.7183 resistance will suggest that pullback from 0.7277 has completed. Stronger rally should then be seen to retest 0.7277 high. However, decisive break of 0.7076 will indicate that larger scale correction is underway and target 0.6832 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays mildly on the upside fro the moment. Rise from 1.3549 is in progress and it's seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.3480. Further rally should be seen to 1.3965 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3729 support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 210.43 is in progress and should target a retest on 216.58 high. Strong resistance should be seen there to cap upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 213.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.27) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is in favor with 184.03 support intact. Rise from 182.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 187.93. Above 185.44 will target a retest on 187.93 high. However, firm break of 184.02 support will bring deeper decline back to 182.01 instead.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.51) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8863 at 0.8466. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

EUR/AUD is still bounded in range trading and intraday bias stays neutral. Rise from 1.6108 is tentatively seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.6125. Above 1.6381 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.6422) and above. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6108 will resume the larger down trend from 1.8554.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.6984) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen above 0.9094 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9167 resistance holds. Rebound from 0.8979 should have completed at 0.9264. Below 0.9094 will target a retest on 0.8979 low. However, firm break of 0.9167 will dampen this bearish view, and bring stronger rise back to retest 0.9264 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9252) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.

• An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will send the euro tumbling.
• A deal between the US and Iran could trigger a rollercoaster ride for EURUSD.

The US dollar has stalled amid the increasingly complex situation in the Middle East. Donald Trump has stated that negotiations with Iran are going well, saying that the outcome will be either a major deal or no deal at all. Both sides appear keen to avoid a return to open conflict. However, the attack by US ships on mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has led to mutual missile strikes between the opposing sides.

Without a significant de-escalation, the EUR risks continuing to decline. According to François Villeroy de Galhau, the ECB has not yet seen any signs of second-order effects on inflation. This means the deposit rate will rise by less than markets expect.

Meanwhile, signals from the Fed are becoming more hawkish, reinforcing the view that the federal funds rate will rise in 2026. Christopher Waller stated that, given the stabilising labour market and stubbornly high inflation, it would be madness to talk about cutting rates. It will not be easy for Kevin Warsh to convince the Committee of the need for monetary expansion if he intends to do so.

An agreement between the US and Iran could turn everything on its head. A fall in oil prices following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would reinforce the view that the inflation acceleration is temporary. The chances of the Fed tightening monetary policy under these conditions will fall rapidly from the current 55%, putting pressure on the dollar. The pace of growth in the EURUSD rate will depend on how quickly markets shift from the view that the Fed will keep rates steady to the view that it will cut them.

We should not rule out the possibility that the US-Iran deal will once again fall through due to differences in the parties’ positions. Any renewed escalation in the conflict would likely restore demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

For now, the baseline scenario is one in which the US and Iran first reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz before moving on to broader discussions surrounding the nuclear programme. A deadlock in negotiations risks leading to a new blockage of the world’s main oil artery. The risks are high, so tanker owners will be extremely cautious in moving their cargoes. Oil prices are unlikely to fall sharply, and inflation remaining at elevated levels will force the Fed to keep rate hikes on the cards. The result will be a rollercoaster ride for EURUSD.