Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8693; (P) 0.8718; (R1) 0.8760; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside as rebound from 0.8610 support extends. Further rally should be seen to 0.8788 resistance. Firm break there should confirm completion of the correction from 0.8863, and bring retest of this high. On the downside, below 0.8675 support will turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be resume to resume through 0.8863. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6668; (P) 1.6757; (R1) 1.6833; More...

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.6842 but quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.6842 will extend the rebound from 1.6125 to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053. However, break of 1.6561 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed, after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6754). Retest of 1.6125 low should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7226) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9160; (P) 0.9213; (R1) 0.9289; More....

EUR/CHF's rebound from 0.8979 resumed by breaking through 0.9198 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.8979 at 0.9235 will pave the way to 0.9394 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9155 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.9286) holds, the larger down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still expected to continue through 0.8979 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rise through 0.9394 resistance, even as a corrective move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1479; (P) 1.1521; (R1) 1.1596; More….

EUR/USD rebounded higher today but it's still seen as in consolidations from 1.1408. Intraday bias remains neutral, and further decline is expected with 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.1497) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.23; (P) 159.11; (R1) 159.62; More...

The firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 159.18) confirms short term topping at 160.45, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31. For now, near term outlook will stay neutral as long as 160.45 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.97) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3169; (P) 1.3217; (R1) 1.3274; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3158. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3479 resistance holds. Below 1.3158 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 61.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3216 from 1.3479 at 1.3077 first. Decisive break there could prompt downward acceleration through 1.3008 support to 100% projection at 1.2828.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7964; (P) 0.8004; (R1) 0.8033; More….

A temporary top is formed at 0.8041 with current retreat, and intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.8041 will resume the whole rally from 0.7603, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. However, decisive break of 0.7833 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8088) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3891; (P) 1.3929; (R1) 1.3952; More...

A temporary top is in place at 1.3965 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that it's already reversing the whole down trend from 1.4791, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290. However, firm break of 1.3751 should indicate rejection by 1.3981, and keep the fall from 1.4791 intact. Bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.3480 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Markets

US markets rebounded at the start of trading on a WSJ report that president Trump was willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He later indicated that the US will be leaving in 2-3 weeks with Defense Secretary Hegseth saying that the coming days of the conflict would be decisive. Trump will also deliver a speech tonight (9pm ET; 3am CET tomorrow) to give an important update on Iran. Yesterday’s risk rally only hit full pace after European close after the Iranian news agency (IRNA) reported that Iran’s president signaled readiness to end the war. He simultaneously reiterated Iran’s demands which haven’t changed from last week. They seek a complete halt of US/Israeli attacks on the country and against groups it back throughout the Middle East, pledges that history won’t repeat itself, war payments and reparations and sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday’s risk rally pulled key US equity indices off the sell-off lows to rebound 2.5% (Dow) to 3.8% (Nasdaq) higher. US Treasuries recovered with the front and belly of the curve outperforming. US yields declined by up to 4.2 bps at the 5-yr tenor. US money markets now again err on the side of a Fed rate cut as a next move, attaching a 50% probability to such a scenario by year-end. From a data perspective, US consumer confidence (conference board) inched up in March as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future. Consumers’ average (>6%) and median (>5%) 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025. The JOLTS job openings report printed near consensus with job openings again falling below 7mn. The German yield curve bull flattened with yields sliding by 0.5 bps (2-yr) to 4.6 bps (30-yr). Eurozone inflation accelerated to 1.2% M/M in March with the energy component up 6.8% M/M. The pace of core inflation stabilized at 0.8% (2.3% Y/Y from 2.4%). On an annual level, headline CPI rose from 1.9% to 2.5% with our in-house KBC Nowcast suggesting a further increase to 2.9% Y/Y in April. Depending on the evolution of the conflict, we might already hit 3%. On FX markets, the dollar sold off in yesterday’s risk rally with EUR/USD rebounding from the 1.1450 area towards 1.1550. Brent crude prices (June contract) fell from $107/b to $103/b after the Iranian president headlines. Today’s eco calendar contains (March) US ADP employment change, retail sales and manufacturing ISM, but the numbers will again be overshadowed by the developing narrative on the war in the Middle East. Asian stock markets join the risk rally this morning, but Brent crude currently treads water at the $103 level.

News & Views

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey came in strong again. Sentiment among large manufacturers (17) improved to a four year peak while the sector’s outlook stabilized near the post-pandemic highs. Current conditions in the non-manufacturing segment (36) weren’t this benign in 35 (!) years. Its future looked bright too with the indicator only marginally retreating from 2025Q4 multidecade high (29). The image for small(er) companies looked similar. Price indicators picked up, hinting once again at growing inflationary pressures. Input pressures rose more than output, (partially) capturing the rising energy prices following the Iran war. But excluding the 2021-2022 inflation surge, the output price indicator is trading at its highest since the 1980s. Expectations for inflation in five years rose to 2.5%, another record. Meanwhile preliminary results of the shunto wage negotiations by the Japan’s largest union (Rengo) point at increases above the 5% mark for a third consecutive year. This combination makes an April rate hike by the Bank of Japan a near-certainty. Such a scenario is priced in for about 70% in money markets. The Japanese yen shrugged with upcoming rate support doing little to lift it. USD/JPY is trading more or less unchanged from yesterday’s close around 158.8.

Greece secured another milestone in its recovery from a debt crisis that nearly pushed the country out of the eurozone more than a decade ago. (Equity) index provider MSCI has upgraded Greece to a developed-market status from emerging market, reflecting “both the progress achieved by the Greek market authorities and the evolving view among global institutional investors that Developed Markets Europe operates as a cohesive investment region.” The win is a rather symbolic one that not necessarily would attract huge capital flows since other index providers already upgraded Greece last year. But it adds to Greece’s resurrection story, which also included upgrades to its sovereign debt market back to investment grade.

Hope that the Iran war could end soon fuelled optimism yesterday after Trump announced willingness to pull back, and Iran State News reported a phone call between a EU councillor and Iran President suggesting ‘necessary will to end the war’ if guarantees are met.

S&P500 rallied 2.91%, Nasdaq soared 3.83%. Oil pulled back. Kospi skyrocketed 8% in Asia.

The US dollar fell sharply too, also pulled lower by a series of comments and data releases.

1. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said a day earlier that, despite rising oil and gas prices, long-term inflation expectations remained “in check,” and that oil shocks tend to come and go. By the time rate hikes would take effect, the oil price shock would be “probably long gone,” and tighter monetary conditions would be “weighing on the economy at a time when it’s not appropriate.” In short, he pushed back on expectations that the Fed would raise rates to fight energy shock led short term inflation.
2. The EURUSD rebounded following a set of euro area CPI updates confirming that the Middle East war had led to a notable jump in inflation. March preliminary data came in slightly lower than analysts had penciled in, but headline inflation rose 1.2% over the month, pushing the yearly figure to 2.5%, up from 1.9% printed before the war. Energy prices rose 4.9%. Core inflation slightly eased from 2.4% to 2.3%, but the impact of higher energy prices will push inflation away from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% policy target, potentially forcing policymakers to adopt a tighter monetary policy.
3. US job openings came in softer than expected (data for February). The chances are that the labour market may have slowed further in March due to the negative impact of higher oil prices on activity.

So, the combination of more hawkish ECB pricing versus a more dovish Fed outlook sent the EURUSD all the way up to 1.1578. As discussed earlier, the ECB/Fed rate outlook differential could put a floor under the EURUSD’s decline since the end of January. For the rebound to be sustainable, however, oil and gas prices should stabilize. Otherwise, growth risks to the euro area economy—a net energy importer—will remain higher than growth risks to the US economy—a net energy exporter—which could justify a deeper downside correction in the EURUSD.

Technically, the EURUSD remains in the bullish trend built since the beginning of 2025. Key support for this trend sits near 1.1350, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025-to-date rally. Only a slide below this level would open the discussion on whether the US dollar deserves to return to a broader, medium-term bullish trend.

Again, the answer depends on the duration of Middle East tensions and oil prices. Crude oil eased 3% yesterday, helping the US dollar soften on top of economic data and central bank expectations, while Brent crude fell more than 5%.

The decline could be partly attributed to Donald Trump telling aides that the US will stop its campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. However, a few hours earlier, he had threatened to invade Kharg Island and seize Iranian oil. In the current conditions, volatility is almost inevitable.

Both WTI and Brent push higher this morning.

As a rule of thumb, a sustainable move into the $90–100 per barrel range could help investors digest the energy shock and seek new catalysts and direction across FX and equities. Many warn that prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil and 20-25% of gas flows transit—could trigger “demand destruction,” meaning prices rise enough to force companies and consumers to reduce usage, hitting economic activity.

That is why the $120–130 per barrel range is probably the top range for crude prices. Above this, falling demand would likely pull prices lower, while in the longer run, more affordable levels would ideally be $80 per barrel or below.

Interestingly, if you looked at US market price action yesterday, you could hardly guess how uncertain the geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop is. The S&P500 rallied 2.9% on a sharp decline in US yields—the 2-year yield, which best captures Fed rate expectations, fell 8 basis points yesterday and nearly 20bp from last Friday’s peak above 4%.

This is positive if you isolate the impact of higher oil prices on operating costs and profit margins. Forward EPS continues to rise as investors look past rising energy prices, and falling valuations from the recent market drop are whetting appetites, especially for tech stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 trades at 21x estimated earnings, just under 2 points above the S&P500’s. The last time this valuation gap was so narrow was 2019.

Moving forward, all eyes will be on the next earnings season and the impact of the Iran war and higher energy prices across industries. Tech hasn’t been a great place to hide in this latest oil shock—rising crude linked to the Iran war has pushed inflation expectations higher, driven yields up and hit long-duration tech valuations. But the underlying story hasn’t broken: AI demand remains strong, AI spending is massive and fundamentals across mega-cap tech are holding up. If geopolitical tensions ease and rates stabilize, the sector—now relatively cheap—could be one of the first to rebound.

There are even reports that OpenAI may allow investors to gain exposure ahead of a potential IPO later this year, by including its shares in several ETFs—among them funds from Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest.

Let’s hope calm returns soon, then!

Also, note that I will be out of the office until April 20. Wishing you a very Happy Easter!