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US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 738.4B in February, beating expectations of 0.4% mom and pointing to resilient consumer demand. The strength was broad-based, with ex-auto sales rising 0.5% mom to USD 599.0B. Ex-gasoline sales also increased 0.6% mom to USD 686.0B. These figures indicate that underlying consumption momentum remains solid beyond volatile components such as autos and fuel.

On a yearly basis, headline sales rose 3.7% yoy, while total sales for the December 2025 through February 2026 period increased 3.1% from a year earlier. Retail trade sales were also up 0.6% mom from January and 3.5% yoy. The data supports the case for a still-resilient US economy, which could keep the Fed cautious on easing as solid demand persists.

Full US retail sales release here.

US ADP private employment rose 62k in March, above expectations of 42k, pointing to steady but moderate labor market expansion. The increase was broadly balanced between goods-producing industries, which added 30k jobs, and service-providing sectors, which gained 32k.

However, the composition of job growth highlights an uneven picture. Small establishments led hiring with an increase of 85k jobs, while medium and large firms shed -20k and -4k respectively.

On the wage front, conditions remain firm but uneven. Pay growth for job-stayers held steady at 4.5% yoy for a third consecutive month. Job-changers saw gains accelerate from 6.3% yoy to 6.6% yoy.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that hiring remains concentrated in certain industries, particularly healthcare, and that stronger pay gains for job-changers reflect continued competition for skilled labor even as overall hiring momentum stays moderate.

Full US ADP employment release here.

Key takeaways

• Rally likely a “dead cat bounce”: The sharp surge across US indices appears driven by short-covering and quarter-end positioning amid optimism over a potential US–Iran de-escalation, rather than a sustainable bullish reversal.
• Macro and technical backdrop still bearish: Longer-term charts show bearish reversal patterns across major indices, signalling deterioration in the broader uptrend despite the recent rebound.
• Weak breadth and key resistance levels cap upside: Market breadth remains fragile with limited participation, while indices are still below critical resistance levels (S&P 500 – 6,730), (Nasdaq 100 – 24,355), (DJIA – 47,460), leaving downside risks intact unless these levels are decisively reclaimed.

On Tuesday, 31 March 2026 (the last day of the month and the first quarter), the global markets witnessed a set of magnificent rallies on the four major US benchmark stock indices: S&P 500 (+2.9%), Nasdaq 100 (+3.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.5%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (+3.4%), all notched their best daily performance since May 2025.

These explosive V-shaped intraday rallies seen in the US stock market were ignited by optimism of a potential de-escalation of the ongoing five-week US-Iran war.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told EU Council president António Costa that Iran has "the necessary will to end this war" but expects certain guarantees in exchange, a hint that the Iranian leadership may be open to negotiations.

Thereafter, towards the end of Tuesday’s US session, US President Trump mentioned that the US-Iran war may end within two to three weeks, suggested the US has accomplished its military goals, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may not be necessary to end the war.

On Wednesday, 1 April at 9 p.m. Washington time, US President Trump will deliver an official speech to address the current situation in Iran, according to the White House’s press office.

Interestingly, the rallies seen on the major US stock indices can be due to short-covering and potential window-dressing for month-end and quarter-end.

Technical analysis suggests a potential mean reversion rebound (a dead cat bounce) rather than the start of a medium-term bullish reversal inflection point. Let’s break it down.

Longer-term price actions are bearish

Fig. 1: S&P 500 long-term secular trend as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Nasdaq 100 long-term secular trend as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average long-term secular trend as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The 3-month charts of the cash stock indices have formed bearish reversal candlestick patterns at the end of Q1 2026.

Both the mega-cap tech-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have flashed “Bearish Engulfing” candlesticks (see Fig. 1 & Fig. 2), while a 3-month bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick was seen on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (see Fig. 3).

Hence, the appearance of such bearish reversal candlestick patterns on the longer-term charts suggests that the bigger macro picture points to a potential deterioration in the longer-term secular bullish trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJIA rather than the start of a medium-term bullish reversal phase (e.g ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs in early April 2025).

Market breadth remains weak and has not reached capitulation levels

Fig. 4: Percentages of S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 stocks above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day MAs as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The percentage of component stocks for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 that are trading above their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages after Tuesday’s rally is still below 50% (see Fig. 4).

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above 50-day and 200-day moving averages stands at 24% and 47%, respectively. The prior capitulation levels were at 5.2% (above 50-day MA) and 17.7% (above 50-day MA) on 8 April 2025, which led to the ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs’ bullish reversal.

The percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above 50-day and 200-day moving averages stands at 21% and 44%, respectively. The prior capitulation levels were at 4% (above 50-day MA) and 16% (above 200-day MA) on 8 April 2025, which led to the ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs’ bullish reversal.

Let’s now decipher the medium-term trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

S&P 500 – Still below 200-day MA with RSI capped by resistance

Fig. 5: US S&P 500 CFD index medium-term trend as of 1 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The medium-term downtrend phase of the US S&P 500 CFD index (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures) remains intact since its current all-time high of 7,020 printed on 28 January 2026.

Watch the 6,730 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 6,340 increases the odds of another potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 6,120 and 5,925 (see Fig. 5).

On the other hand, a clearance above 6,730 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards 6,880 and even 7,020.

Nasdaq 100 – Double Top bearish breakdown neckline acting as key resistance

Fig. 6: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index medium-term trend as of 1 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The current price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) are still trading below the “Double Top” bearish breakdown neckline and 200-day moving average.

The daily MACD trend indicator is still showing no clear signs of a trend change as it continues to hover below the centreline.

Watch the 24,355 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 22,680 increases the odds of another potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 22,135/22,088 and 21,438/21,293 (see Fig. 6).

On the flip side, a clearance above 24,355 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards 24,835 and 25,215/25,455.

Dow Jones (DJIA) – Resting below the intersection point of the 20-day MA bearish crossover below the 200-day MA

Fig. 7: US Wall Street 30 CFD index medium-term trend as of 1 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The rallies seen in the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures in the past three sessions have led its price actions to rest just below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages (see Fig. 7).

In addition, the 20-day moving average has flashed out a bearish crossover condition below the key 200-day moving average.

Watch the 47,460 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 44,975 increases the odds of another potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 43,935 and 43,290/42,935 (see Fig. 6).

On the flip side, a clearance above 47,460 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards 48,350 and 49,750.

• Expectations of peace in the Middle East are leading to a sell-off in the US dollar.
• Gold is the main beneficiary of the conflict’s resolution.

And the last shall be first. EURUSD bulls have launched a counterattack following Donald Trump’s announcement that the conflict in the Middle East would be resolved within 2–3 weeks. The US President called on the Gulf states to take back their oil, forcibly opening the Strait of Hormuz.

The White House’s willingness to withdraw from the region fits well with the TACO strategy — Trump Always Changes His Mind — which investors have adopted since April 2025, when tough initial tariffs were followed by reductions and delays, triggering a rally in stock indices and weakening the dollar.

History is repeating itself, so a rally of more than 1.3% in EURUSD looks logical, as investors are betting on a fall in Brent and an improvement in global risk appetite. In this scenario, the global economy will suffer less than if the conflict were to drag on, and signs of a slowdown in US GDP should soften the Fed’s stance in the coming months.

The outlook for Europe is also changing. In March, the eurozone CPI jumped from 1.9% to 2.5% due to food and energy prices, but hopes have risen in the last day that the acceleration in consumer prices may be temporary. Without a tightening of monetary policy, the currency bloc’s economy will manage to avoid a recession and begin to recover gradually, whilst falling oil and gas prices will improve expectations for the trade balance. This is good news for the euro.

The fall in the dollar and US Treasury yields allowed USDJPY bears to mount a counterattack. The Japanese Ministry of Finance was ready to act on all fronts, including the currency and commodity markets. Verbal interventions have cooled speculators who had built up net short positions on the yen to a two-month high.

Gold could be the main beneficiary of the imminent end to the armed conflict in the Middle East. The precious metal is poised to rise above $4,700 per ounce amid speculative reaction to Donald Trump’s comments. Previously, it was actively sold off by both central banks to secure the liquidity needed to support their economies and by investors to meet margin calls on shares and bonds.

Nevertheless, investors and traders should remain cautious, as the US administration has on more than one occasion played the role of the ‘good cop’ in falling markets and the ‘bad cop’ when markets are closed.

Gold prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday, approaching 4,690 USD per ounce amid signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Expectations of de-escalation could lead to lower oil prices and reduced concerns about further tightening of central bank policy.

Donald Trump stated he was ready to end the conflict with Iran even with the Strait of Hormuz partially closed. Separately, reports emerged that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian may consider ending the conflict under certain conditions.

However, the rise in gold remains constrained. Reducing geopolitical risks diminishes demand for safe-haven assets, while a strong dollar and elevated government bond yields continue to pressure the metal.

In March, gold lost more than 13%-its steepest monthly decline since October 2008. The precious metal now remains approximately 19% below its January highs. Going forward, its dynamics will depend on US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve signals on interest rates.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 4,656 USD level. An upside breakout would open potential for a correction to 4,848 USD. A downside breakout could see the beginning of a downward wave to 4,750 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and pointing strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken above the 4,682 USD level and is forming a wave towards 4,855 USD. Looking ahead, a corrective move back to 4,490 USD will be considered, followed by an expected rise to 4,900 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line remaining above the 20 level and showing upward pressure towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold's sharp rally reflects growing market optimism over a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, with signals from both US and Iranian leadership suggesting a possible path toward ending the conflict. However, the metal's upside remains capped by the corresponding decline in safe-haven demand, alongside persistent headwinds from a strong dollar and high bond yields. Having suffered its worst monthly loss since 2008 in March, gold now faces a pivotal moment where further gains will likely depend on whether easing geopolitical tensions translate into a sustained shift in central bank policy expectations. Technical indicators point to near-term upside, though the broader trend remains fragile.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has increased by 1.3% to $2.35T over the past 24 hours, recovering to last Friday’s levels. This time, cryptocurrencies struggled to keep pace with equities, where technical oversold conditions, quarterly rebalancing, and positive signals regarding the US-Iran conflict coincided.

Algorand stands out as the day’s leader, gaining over 22% amidst general market stagnation, whilst Zcash and Neo showed more modest but noticeable growth of between 4% and 7%. TRON, Bitcoin Cash, and Toncoin, which lost less than 1.5%, stand out against the predominantly green market with this moderate decline.

In contrast to market dynamics, the Fear and Greed Index had fallen by 3 points to 8, remaining deep in the extreme fear zone. Over the past month, the index has barely left this zone, fluctuating between 8 and 14, but this time external factors are well-positioned to fuel demand for cryptocurrencies and support a rebound.

Bitcoin is trading at $68.4K, up around 1.5% over the past 24 hours, building on a rebound from recent lows around $60K, which held the support line of the uptrend over the last two months, and making a fresh attempt to break above the 50-day MA.

The start of April ranks among the top three months for BTC. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has ended this month with gains on ten occasions and declined only five. The average gain was 20.9%, while the average decline was 8.8%.

News Background

Investors are increasingly questioning Bitcoin’s value amid a lack of clear short-term growth drivers, said Ran Neuner, founder of the media platform Crypto Banter. He noted that defining the role of the first cryptocurrency in the market is becoming increasingly challenging.

According to Google analysts, quantum computers may be able to hack Bitcoin sooner than expected. A successful attack on the BTC network might require significantly less computing power than previously believed. Nearly a third of all existing Bitcoins could potentially become vulnerable.

Nakamoto, a company led by David Bailey, Donald Trump’s former cryptocurrency adviser, has sold part of its Bitcoin reserves (284 BTC) at a 40% loss. Nakamoto’s shares have fallen by 99% over the past year.

The US Department of Labour has suggested new rules for 401(k) pension plans. The department intends to allow the inclusion of alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, thereby lifting the restrictions introduced in 2022.

Standard Chartered has seen stablecoin trading double over the past two years, mainly driven by Circle’s USDC. This growth could lessen the need for new stablecoin issuance, provided transaction volumes continue to increase.

UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 51.0 in March, down from February's 51.4, signaling a modest slowdown in factory activity. The data suggests that while demand conditions are holding up, momentum in production is beginning to soften amid a more challenging operating environment.

According to Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the Middle East war is reshaping cost and supply dynamics. He noted that delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since mid-2022, while input price inflation surged at the fastest pace since the aftermath of the UK’s ERM exit in 1992. The resulting high-cost environment, combined with input shortages, has started to weigh directly on production volumes.

Dobson also highlighted that the broader economic and geopolitical backdrop is denting confidence, with business optimism falling to a six-month low and job cuts accelerating to their fastest pace since last September. However, he pointed out that new orders have held up better than output, suggesting that the weakness in production is currently driven more by supply constraints than a collapse in demand, leaving the outlook sensitive to how long cost pressures persist.

Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 51.6 in March, up from 50.8, marking a 45-month high and signaling continued, albeit modest, expansion in the sector.

However, according to Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the Middle East war has already begun to leave a clear imprint on the sector. He noted that suppliers’ delivery times have risen sharply as logistics adjust to maritime disruption, while surging oil prices have pushed input cost inflation to its highest level since late 2022.

Hayes also highlighted that firms have started passing these higher costs through to customers, "reducing the Eurozone's competitiveness and this will likely put demand under renewed pressure."

Despite steady output and order growth, Hayes emphasized that expansions remain "tepid" and vulnerable. He warned that it may not take much for output and sales to turn lower, particularly if the conflict persists and cost pressures intensify.

Full Eurozone PMI Manufacturing final release here.

EUR/USD is recovering losses from 1.1450. USD/JPY is correcting gains from 160.50 and might decline further below 158.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to stay in a positive zone and declined below 1.1600 before finding support.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY rallied significantly before the bears appeared near 160.45.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.1640. The Euro declined below 1.1600 and 1.1520 against the US Dollar.

The pair even declined below 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1445 zone. A low was formed at 1.1443, and the pair is now recovering losses. There was a move above 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1639 swing high to the 1.1443 low. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 61.8% Fib retracement and 1.1575. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1640.

If not, the pair might drop again. Immediate support is near 1.1520. The next key area of interest might be 1.1480 or the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 1.1480, the pair could drop toward 1.1445. The main target for the bears on the EUR/USD chart could be 1.1400, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 160.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below 159.50 against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below 159.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 158.44, and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the downside, the first major support is near 158.45.

The next key region for the bulls might be 158.00. If there is a close below 158.00, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 156.80. Any more losses might send the pair toward 155.00.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.44 low at 158.90.

If there is a close above 158.90 and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 159.20. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20. The next major barrier for the bulls could be near the 50% Fib retracement level at 159.45, above which the pair could test 160.00 in the coming days.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.29; (P) 210.26; (R1) 210.89; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Corrective pattern from 214.98 should be in the third leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 209.15. Firm break there will target 207.20 and below. On the upside, above 211.20 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 213.29 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 203.13) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.