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USD/JPY dynamics continue to be driven by the persistent yield gap between US and Japanese government bonds. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a relatively hawkish stance and keeping rates elevated as of April 2026, the Bank of Japan remains extremely cautious in its path towards policy normalisation. This divergence in monetary policy continues to underpin demand for the US dollar.

The dollar is also supported by its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, upside momentum is being restrained by the proximity of the key 160.00 level. Historical precedent suggests a heightened risk of currency intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance around this threshold. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on 28 April, which could reshape market expectations for the pair’s next move.

Technical Overview

Since April 2025, the pair has been developing a steady uptrend within a well-defined parallel channel. Price action remains highly responsive, consistently respecting the channel structure and reinforcing the strength of the broader trend. Each test of the lower boundary over the past year has triggered renewed buying interest.

Currently, the pair is consolidating just below the critical 160.00 level, while holding above the upper boundary of the horizontal volume zone near 158.500. The Point of Control (POC) is concentrated around 156.00, acting as the midpoint of the current structure and a key reference level in the event of a corrective move.

The slowdown near current levels may reflect position-building, as market participants appear reluctant to force a breakout above 160.00 without a strong fundamental catalyst. The RSI with Moving Averages shows a reading of 51, indicating neutral conditions and no signs of extreme overbought territory despite proximity to yearly highs. Both moving averages of the oscillator are also positioned in neutral territory, reinforcing the current market balance.

Summary

USD/JPY remains in sharp focus. The wide interest rate differential and geopolitical backdrop continue to support the dollar, but the approach to the psychological 160.00 level, combined with intervention risks, is encouraging a more cautious stance among buyers.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.02; (P) 215.40; (R1) 215.67; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for consolidations below 215.89 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 213.29 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.47) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.18; (P) 187.43; (R1) 187.77; More...

EUR/JPY's up trend resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98 next. Nevertheless, break of 187.07 support should indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 55 4H EMA (now at 186.38).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) in in progress and should be ready to resume. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8695; (P) 0.8705; (R1) 0.8720; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment, as consolidations continue below 0.8740. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8675 support holds. Break of 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6411; (P) 1.6447; (R1) 1.6487; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside as fall from 1.6842 is in progress for retesting 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6667 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7163) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9217; (P) 0.9231; (R1) 0.9247; More....

Sideway trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rebound from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1758; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1817; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.1823 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1662 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will extend the rally from 1.1408 to retest 1.2081 high.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1513). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.48; (P) 158.90; (R1) 159.56; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.24) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3498; (P) 1.3547; (R1) 1.3576; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.3594 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3379 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will extend the rise from 1.3158 to retest 1.3867 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7808; (P) 0.7827; (R1) 0.7857; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 0.7789 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 0.7933 resistance holds. Below 0.7789 will resume the fall from 0.8041 to 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770. Decisive break there will target a retest on 0.7603 low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8071) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).