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EUR/USD's extended rebound last week suggests that correction from 1.2081 has already completed at 1.1408. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. On the downside, below 1.1642 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1505). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidations below 160.45 short term top last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral first and further rise is expected with 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) intact. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.24) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD's strong rebound last week argues that correction from 1.3867 might have completed at 1.3158 already. But as a temporary top was formed at 1.3483, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.3483 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596. Firm break there will bring retest of 1.3867 high. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3342) will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.3158 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.0351 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF extended the pullback from 0.8041 short term top, but failed to sustain below 0.7877 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7874). With 4H MACD crossed above signal line, initial bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.7874/7 will argue that the rise from 0.7603 has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.7770 and below. Nevertheless, above 0.7925 minor resistance will turn turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8041.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8081) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's strong rebound last week suggests that pullback from 0.7187 has completed at 0.6832 already. Initial bias stays mildly on upside this week for retesting 0.7187. Strong resistance could be seen there to bring another fall to extend the near term corrective pattern. On the downside, below 0.7021 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6683) holds.

USD/CAD's pullback from 1.3965 extended lower last week but downside is contained above 38.2% retracement of 1.3840 to 1.3965 at 1.3780. Initial bias stays neutral and further rise remains in favor. On the upside, firm break of 1.3965 will resume the rise from 1.3480. However, sustained break of 1.3780 will argue that the rebound from 1.3840 has completed, and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.3665 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3590) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

GBP/JPY's strong rally last week suggests that consolidation from 214.98 might have completed at 209.58, and larger up trend is resuming. Initial bias stays on the upside for retesting 214.98 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43. On the downside, below 213.47 minor support will delay the bullish case, and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.10) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 184.92) holds.

EUR/JPY's strong rally last week and breach of 186.86 high suggests that long term up trend is resuming. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next near term target is 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98. On the downside, below 185.88 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 184.75 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) in in progress and should be ready to resume. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

EUR/GBP stayed in range trading below 0.8740 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8675 support holds. Break of 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's extended pullback last week suggests that rebound from 1.6125 has completed at 1.6842, after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6720). But as a temporary low as formed at 1.6497, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.6497 will target a retest on 1.6125 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6708 will should resume the rebound from 1.6125 through 1.6842 to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7184) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6592) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.