Sample Category Title

• USD/JPY has risen the most among the majors in the past month.
• The current swift up move of USD/JPY has prompted FX verbal intervention today from Japan’s Ministry of Finance.
• The current tonality of verbal intervention is the strongest since mid-August 2023 that occurred when the current upward trajectory of USD/JPY is fast approaching a key medium-term resistance zone of 148.40/148.85.
• Short-term upside momentum has started to wane.

The USD/JPY has indeed staged the expected up-move in the past two weeks and surpassed the 147.20/147.50 resistance highlighted in our previous report as it printed an intraday high of 147.80 during yesterday’s US session, 5 September.

USD/JPY is the top performer among the majors in the past month

The recent movement seen in the USD/JPY has been fast and furious since last Friday, 1 September ex-post US non-farm payrolls data release. Based on the one-month rolling performances of the major currencies as of today, 6 September (at this time of the writing), the US dollar has strengthened the most against the JPY (+4%), a relatively stark USD/JPY outperformance versus other major pairs such as the USD/EUR (+2.6%), USD/CHF (+1.8%), and USD/GBP (+1.4%).

Fig 1:  Rolling one-month FX majors’ performances against the USD as of 6 September 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

This recent bout of short-term shift rally seen in the USD/JPY has prompted Japan’s Ministry of Finance to issue a verbal warning to FX speculators this morning (Asian session) to negate the current bout of JPY weakness.

Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda, the Japanese official in charge of foreign exchange matters said that authorities “will not rule out any options on currencies if speculative moves persist” and added “it is important for currency moves to reflect fundamentals”, a possible hint that the current level of USD/JPY does not reflect the latest set of Japanese inflation data where inflationary pressures in Japan have remained elevated excluding fresh food and energy components.

Interestingly, this latest tone of FX verbal intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance is the strongest warning since mid-August 2023 after the USD/JPY sailed past the psychological levels of 145 and 146.

From a technical analysis perspective, today’s verbal intervention materialized while the current impulsive up-move sequence in the USD/JPY has been fast approaching the key medium-term resistance zone of 148.40/148.85 (see daily chart below). Therefore, it reinforces the significance of the 148.20/148.85 zone on the USD/JPY.

148.40/148.85 key medium-term resistance to watch on USD/JPY

Fig 2:  USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 6 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Short-term downside momentum has started to ease below 147.90

Fig 3:  USD/JPY minor short-term trend as of 6 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Meanwhile, the hourly RSI indicator, a gauge of momentum has flashed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought zone yesterday and started to inch lower (below 70) in today’s Asian session.

These observations have suggested the short-term upside momentum of the recent up move from last Friday, 1 September low of 144.44 has waned and the USD/JPY now faces the risk of a minor pull-back on an intraday basis.

A breakdown below 147.20 may trigger the minor pull-back scenario to expose the intermediate support zone of 146.30/145.70 (also the 20-day moving average).

On the flip side, a clearance above 147.90 is likely to resume the impulsive up-move sequence to see the key medium-term resistance zone coming in at 148.40/148.45.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3597; (P) 1.3634; (R1) 1.3679; More....

Break of 1.3638 suggests that USD/CAD's rally is resuming and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained break of 1.3653 should confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, and target a test on this high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3488 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.3436) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6335; (P) 0.6401; (R1) 0.6443; More...

Breach of 0.6363 support suggests resumption of fall from 0.6894. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline from 0.7156 should target 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, break of 0.6520 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0685; (P) 1.0744; (R1) 1.0781; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.1274 is in progress for 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, above 1.0808 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0944 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.0609/34 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0199.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2517; (P) 1.2577; (R1) 1.2625; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.3141 should target 61.8% projection of 1.3141 to 1.2618 from 1.2799 at 1.2476. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.2276. On the upside, above 1.2641 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3141 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075. Strong support would be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, and consolidation from there is set to extend, until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8855; (P) 0.8879; (R1) 0.8919; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.8551 should target 0.9146 cluster resistance. On the upside, below 0.8831 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.8743 support holds.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8551 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the downtrend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rally would be seen to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160). Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

Market movers today

In Germany, we receive factory orders for July. The June figures beat all expectations with an increase of 7% m/m. However, the positive surprise was driven by a base effect from a large drop in May together with a large increase in major orders in June; the latter was likely due to a large order from the aerospace company Airbus. Excluding major orders, German factory orders declined 2.6% m/m, which is more in line with the dire readings from other activity indicators such as the PMIs. Due to the large one-off increase last month, we will likely see a decline today in the July figures.

Today also brings the July retail sales for the euro area. Retail sales in real terms has been weak this year and surprised on the downside in June. The latest increases in consumer confidence should give some support to the figures, but consensus is looking for a 0.2% m/m decline.

In the US, we get ISM non-manufacturing. Leading data indicates they will be on the weak side.

In Poland, we expect the central bank to cut the base rate to 6.5% from 6.75%.

Overnight, we also get trade balance figures from China, where weak exports have caught attention lately.

The 60 second overview

Yesterday Saudi Arabia announced that it is extending its 1mb/d unilateral output cut through the rest of the year. This sent oil prices to new year-highs with Brent briefly trading above USD 90/bbl. On the one hand, markets and economies now need to deal with the consequences of a higher oil price. On the other hand, markets and economies, and in particular oil importers, should find comfort in the fact that by keeping its oil production at a very low level Saudi Arabia has only managed to increase oil prices so much. We think it reveals that demand is weak, e.g. due to weak growth in Europe and China, and it shows that other producers are gaining market shares. For example the US likely will produce record amounts of crude this year and new producers, e.g. Guyana, are emerging. Furthermore, the USD is on the rise again, which dampens oil demand outside US. We doubt Saudi Arabia will cut production further; however, it may opt to extend cuts into 2024. But for the reasons above, we doubt it will have great impact on oil prices. We keep our forecast for Brent to average USD 80/bbl the next year.

The USD/JPY rapid rise since the latter part of last week, from below 145 to above 147.5, spurred verbal intervention from the Japanese authorities overnight. Vice finance minister for international affairs Masato Kanda stated that "if these moves continue, the government will deal with them appropriately without ruling out any options". Following the announcement USD/JPY dropped below 147.50 but later hit a 10-month high at 147.80. At the time of writing, the cross is trading at 147.50. The Japanese authorities last intervened in October 2022 of an estimated USD 62bn. If authorities resort to actual intervention this may cap the topside in USD/JPY in the near term but we still expect that the main drivers of USD/JPY to be more fundamental, such as an exit from the accommodative monetary policy. Overnight, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Takata said that there are positive signs that will support the BoJ's objective of a 2% inflation target although he stated that "we need to continue patiently with large-scale easing as uncertainties are extremely high." Likewise, we expect central banks in advanced economies likely not to be far from turning dovish. See FX markets comment below for further details.

Equities: Global equities were lower yesterday with Japanese stocks going against the trend. It is the same picture today with Japan outperforming other markets in Asia. Japan currently holds the loosest monetary policy and the strongest macro momentum in the western world. This has benefited the equity market and in our opinion will continue to do so. Yes, Japanese CPI is rising and above target (currently 3.4% y/y) but in our minds it makes sense to continue with an extraordinary loose monetary policy as structural deflation scare takes more than just 12 months to battle.

In the rest of the world, it is interesting to see energy and tech outperforming together while utilities, materials and industrial are lower and the worst performers. Again, this very muddy sector picture just shows that there is no clear narrative in equities driven by one dominating macro factor. In US yesterday, Dow -0.6%, S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.1% and Russell 2000 -2.1%.

FI: Global rates were subject to a selling pressure all through yesterday. The long end was the underperformers as markets had to digest the supply from especially Austria in the 10y and 30y areas. While ECB's Lane in an interview on 31 August said that the recent inflation release was welcoming it was not enough to support EGBs on the day.

FX: Yesterday, the sour sentiment, mainly from China, supported the USD with the DXY index hitting the highest level since March and EUR/USD breaking below 1.0750. USD/JPY rose above 147.5 in yesterday's session, triggering verbal intervention from the Japanese authorities overnight. The cyclically sensitive SEK ran into to a double-whammy yesterday after weak PMI services, where China fell to 51.8 and Sweden to 49.0. Saudi Arabia's announcement yesterday of extending its 1mb/d unilateral output cut through the rest of the year sent oil prices to a new year-high briefly above USD90/bbl.

Credit: Softish equity markets set the tone on Tuesday, but credit market were somewhat more directionless. Itrax Main widened 0.3bp to close at 69.7bn, while Itrax Xover widened 0.9bp to close at 392.2bp. Primary market supply continued to be ample, which (among others) was exemplified by a USD2.35bn multi-tranche offering by cigarette-giant Phillip Morris.

Released yesterday, the European services PMI data came in softer than expected in all major euro area locations. The data showed that services sector in Italy and Spain slipped into the contraction zone in August - a month of big summer holidays where people flock to Italian and Spanish cities and beaches. The soft PMI data fueled the European Central Bank (ECB) doves and pushed the EURUSD under a bus yesterday; the pair fell to the lowest levels since the beginning of June and flirted with the 1.07 support on idea that the ECB can’t raise interest rates next week when the economic picture is souring at speed. But I believe that it can. The ECB can announce another 25bp hike when it meets next week, or a faster reduction of its balance sheet, or the end of remuneration of banks’ minimum reserves to tighten financial conditions, because the latest inflation figures from the Eurozone showed stagnation, instead of further easing, and the ECB will allow economic weakness to some extent to fight inflation. The most recent inflation expectations in the Eurozone showed that the next 12-month expectations remained steady at 3.4%, but the three-year inflation expectations spiked to 3.4%, and there is no reason for inflation expectations to continue easing when energy prices are going up toward the sky.

More cuts

Brent crude rallied past the $90pb yesterday, as US crude advanced above the $88pb mark as Saudi Arabia and Russia announce that they prolong their supply cuts. Saudi Arabia will continue reducing its own unilateral supply by 1mbpd to the end of the year, while Russia will be cutting 300’000 bpd. The kneejerk reaction to the news was a sharp jump in oil prices but the news was not a shocker per se, investors knew that something was cooking. What surprised the market, however, is the timeline: cuts are announced for another 3 months.

The million barrel question now is: is $100pb back on the table? It’s unsure, and the road that could lead crude oil prices toward the $100pb psychological mark will likely be bumpy, because higher energy prices have already started being reflected in inflation and inflation expectations. As a result, the central banks, including the Fed, will have little choice but to keep their monetary policies sufficiently tight to prevent an uptick in inflation. That could mean further rate hikes, or keeping the rates at restrictive levels for longer, in which case, oil prices make a U-turn and cheapen due to recession and global demand concerns.

And when global demand worries kick in, and prices cheapen, Saudi will be losing money considering that the kingdom is shouldering the supply cut strategy for OPEC alone. For now, the demand outlook remains strong despite the slowing China and suffering Europe, but if it weakened, Saudi could easily change its mind, and the kingdom has a history of making sharp U-turns on its decision when winds turn against them.

‘Hell of a good week of data’

Interestingly, higher oil prices don’t seem to bother some Federal Reserve (Fed) members. Christopher Waller said at a CNBC interview yesterday that last week was a ‘hell of a good week of data’ which will allow the Fed ‘to proceed carefully’ with its next decisions. ‘We can just sit there, wait for the data, and see if things continue’ he said. They could also pray while waiting for the data to deteriorate, as higher energy prices won’t be any less problematic for the Fed.

Anway, both the US 2-year and 10-year yields jumped yesterday, because many companies flooded the market with debt sales. The US saw $36bn bond sales yesterday, the highest ytd. The S&P500 fell 0.42%, while Nasdaq eked out a small gain as Tesla jumped more than 4.5% on news that its China-made EV deliveries rose 9.3%, comforting investors that the price cuts in China may be playing in favour of the company.

DXY:

The DXY chart is currently characterized by a bullish overall momentum, indicating the potential for an upward trend in price movement.

There’s the possibility of a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level at 105.29, which is considered a significant level due to its alignment with a swing high resistance and the presence of the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension.

Support levels include the 1st support at 104.53, which is seen as a pullback support, and the 2nd support at 103.94, recognized as an overlap support.

Additionally, the 2nd resistance at 105.86 is marked as a swing high resistance, suggesting a potential area of resistance should the price continue its bullish movement.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart currently exhibits a bearish momentum, characterized by its position within a descending channel.

There’s potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level at 1.0667. This support is significant due to its alignment with a swing low support, the presence of the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, and the -61.8% Fibonacci Expansion, indicating a strong Fibonacci confluence.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.0741 is identified as a pullback resistance, while the 2nd resistance at 1.0773 also acts as a pullback resistance. These levels could potentially serve as barriers to any bullish movement.

EUR/JPY:

The instrument EUR/JPY currently exhibits a neutral overall momentum on the chart.

In this context, there is a potential scenario where the price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance level at 158.47 and the 1st support level at 157.89.

The 1st support level at 157.89 is considered good because it represents overlap support and aligns with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Additionally, there is a 2nd support level at 157.06, which is significant as it represents multi-swing low support and aligns with a 61.80% Fibonacci Projection.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 158.47 is noteworthy because it serves as overlap resistance and aligns with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 159.22 is considered significant as it represents overlap resistance and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

EUR/GBP:

The instrument EUR/GBP currently displays a bearish overall momentum on the chart, primarily influenced by the fact that the price is below a major descending trend line, indicating a bearish trend is in place.

In this context, there is a potential short-term scenario where the price could rise towards the 1st resistance level at 0.8554 before reversing off it and subsequently dropping towards the 1st support level at 0.8509.

The 1st support level at 0.8509 is considered strong as it represents multi-swing low support and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

Additionally, there is a 2nd support level at 0.8460, which is significant as it represents swing low support and aligns with a 127.20% Fibonacci Extension.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.8554 is noteworthy because it serves as overlap resistance and aligns with a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 0.8577 is considered significant as it represents swing high resistance and aligns with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart currently maintains a bearish momentum, with price positioned below a significant descending trend line, indicating a potential for continued bearish movement.

There’s a likelihood of a bearish reaction at the 1st resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 1.2535 is identified as a multi-swing low support and aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection and the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, signifying a strong Fibonacci confluence, thereby adding to its significance as a potential support level.

Another 1st support at 1.2504 is marked as an overlap support, indicating historical instances of price finding support around this level.

Looking at resistance levels, the 1st resistance at 1.2579 is designated as an overlap resistance, while the 2nd resistance at 1.2643 also functions as an overlap resistance. These levels could act as barriers to any bullish movements.

GBP/JPY:

The instrument GBP/JPY currently exhibits a neutral overall momentum on the chart.

In this context, there is a potential scenario where the price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance level at 185.74 and the 1st support level at 185.25.

The 1st support level at 185.25 is considered good because it represents pullback support and aligns with a 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement. Additionally, there is a 2nd support level at 184.11, which is significant as it represents overlap support and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 185.74 is noteworthy because it serves as swing high resistance.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 186.07 is considered significant as it represents swing high resistance and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF chart currently exhibits a bearish momentum, indicating a potential downward trend in price movement.

There’s a possibility of a bearish reaction at the 1st resistance level, potentially leading to a drop towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 0.8866 is identified as a pullback support, while the 2nd support at 0.8825 also functions as a pullback support, reinforcing their significance as potential areas of price support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.8910 is marked as an overlap resistance, and the 2nd resistance at 0.8985 is also identified as an overlap resistance. These resistance levels may act as barriers to any bullish moves.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY chart currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum, indicating a potential upward trend in price movement.

There’s a possibility of a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level at 148.76.

The 1st support at 146.50 is identified as a pullback support, while the 2nd support at 144.82 is considered an overlap support. These support levels may provide a foundation for potential price increases.

The 1st resistance at 148.76 is marked as a swing high resistance and is also aligned with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, further enhancing its significance as a potential barrier to bullish movement. An intermediate support level at 147.24 is also noted.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD chart currently demonstrates an overall bullish momentum, indicating an upward trend in its price movement. In this scenario, there is potential for a short-term drop towards the intermediate support level.

The intermediate support level at 1.3633 which is identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Further below, the 1st support level at 1.3575 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level.

To the upside, the 1st resistance level at 1.3667 is identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level. Additionally, the 2nd resistance level at 1.3744 is marked as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum, indicating a potential downward trend in its price movement. In this scenario, there’s a likelihood of a bearish reaction occurring off the 1st resistance level at 0.6386, potentially leading to a decline towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 0.6338 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci projection level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 0.6277 is identified as a pullback support that coincides with the 161.80% Fibonacci projection level.

To the upside, the 1st resistance level at 0.6386 is marked as an overlap resistance. Similarly, the 2nd resistance level at 0.6441 is also identified as an overlap resistance, further emphasizing its potential significance as a level where price could face resistance.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD chart currently indicates an overall bearish momentum, suggesting a downward trend in its price movement. In this scenario, there is potential for a bearish reaction emerging from the 1st resistance level at 0.5889, leading to a possible decline towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 0.5862 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level. Similarly, the 2nd support level at 0.5801 is also identified as an overlap support that coincides with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level.

To the upside, the 1st resistance level at 0.5889 is marked as an overlap resistance while the 2nd resistance level at 0.5930 is also identified as an overlap resistance, further emphasizing its potential significance as a level where price could face resistance.

DJ30:

The instrument DJ30 currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum on the chart.

There is a potential scenario where the price could make a bullish bounce off the 1st support level at 34635.50 and subsequently move towards the 1st resistance level at 35093.60.

The 1st support level at 34635.50 is considered strong because it represents overlap support and aligns with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement.

Additionally, there is a 2nd support level at 34271.50, which is also significant as it represents pullback support and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 35093.60 is notable because it serves as overlap resistance and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 35366.70 is considered significant as it represents multi-swing high resistance.

GER30:

The instrument GER30 currently reflects a bullish overall momentum on the chart.

However, there is a potential short-term scenario where the price could drop further to the 1st support level at 15698.9 before bouncing from there and subsequently rising towards the 1st resistance level at 15835.3.

The 1st support level at 15698.9 is considered strong because it represents swing low support and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement and a 61.80% Fibonacci Projection, indicating Fibonacci confluence.

Additionally, there is a 2nd support level at 15559.9, which is significant as it represents swing low support and aligns with a 100% Fibonacci Projection.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 15835.3 is noteworthy because it serves as swing high resistance and aligns with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 16046.2 is considered significant as it represents overlap resistance.

US500

The instrument US500 (S&P 500) currently demonstrates a bearish overall momentum on the chart.

There is a potential scenario where the price could continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support level at 4457.9.

The 1st support level at 4457.9 is considered strong because it represents pullback support and aligns with a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement.

Additionally, there is a 2nd support level at 4418.3, which is also significant as it represents pullback support and aligns with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 4527.0 is noteworthy as it serves as overlap resistance and aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 4577.6 is considered significant as it represents overlap resistance.

BTC/USD:

The instrument BTC/USD currently reflects a bullish overall momentum on the chart.

Price is potentially set to make a bullish move, bouncing off the 1st support level at 25598. This support level is considered good because it represents multi-swing low support.

There is also a 2nd support level at 24892, which is significant as it represents swing low support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 26695 is seen as a strong point because it serves as a pullback resistance and aligns with both a 50% Fibonacci Retracement and a 61.80% Fibonacci Projection, indicating Fibonacci confluence.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 27876 is considered significant as it represents swing high resistance.

Overall, the chart suggests a bullish momentum, with the potential for a bullish bounce off the 1st support level, leading towards the 1st resistance level for BTC/USD.

ETH/USD:

The instrument ETH/USD currently demonstrates a bullish overall momentum on the chart.

There’s a potential scenario where the price could make a bullish move by bouncing off the 1st support level at 1617.84. This support level is considered strong because it represents multi-swing low support.

Additionally, there is a 2nd support level at 1579.19, which is significant as it represents swing low support and aligns with a 127.20% Fibonacci Extension.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1698.93 is notable as it serves as a pullback resistance and aligns with both a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement and a 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, indicating Fibonacci confluence.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 1745.96 is considered significant as it represents swing high resistance.

Overall, the chart suggests a bullish momentum, with the potential for a bullish bounce off the 1st support level, leading towards the 1st resistance level for ETH/USD.

WTI/USD:

The WTI chart currently exhibits an overall bullish momentum, indicating an upward trend in its price movement. Within this context, there’s potential for the price to experience a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level at 87.15.

The 1st resistance level at 87.15 is identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 161.80% extension and the 61.80% projection levels. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 89.26 is also identified as an overlap resistance.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 84.06 is identified as a pullback support while the 2nd support level at 81.65 is identified as an overlap support.

It is also important to note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying bearish divergence compared to the price. This divergence suggests the possibility of a reversal occurring soon, which should be considered when evaluating the overall bullish momentum.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

The XAU/USD chart currently displays a bearish overall momentum, indicating a potential downward trend in price movement.

There’s a likelihood of a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level at 1913.49, which is identified as an overlap support, particularly aligned with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.

The 2nd support level at 1901.55 is also noted as an overlap support, and it aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, reinforcing its importance as a potential area of price support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1931.97 is considered a pullback resistance, while the 2nd resistance at 1943.88 is marked as an overlap resistance. These levels may act as barriers to any potential bullish movements.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.82; (P) 147.31; (R1) 148.22; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rally is part of the whole rise from 127.20, and should target a test on 151.93 high. On the downside, below 146.40 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 144.43 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.