Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8867; (P) 0.8879; (R1) 0.8888; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8802 support holds. Above 0.8927 will target 0.8977 resistance. Firm break there will confirm resumption of whole rally from 0.8545. However, break of 0.8802 will now be a sign of reversal and turn bias back to 0.8720 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the notable support from 55 day EMA (now at 0.8804) retains near term bullishness. Break of 0.8977 should target 0.9267 (2022 high) and possibly above, to resume whole up trend from 0.8201 (2022 low). However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will set the stage for 0.8545 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5409; (P) 1.5488; (R1) 1.5540; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.5650 resistance will revive that case that correction from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.5749 resistance first. On the downside, firm break of 1.5254/71 will carry larger bearish implication and resume the fall from 1.5976.

In the bigger picture, it's still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.13; (P) 143.39; (R1) 143.76; More....

Further rise is expected in EUR/JPY as long as 141.50 minor support holds. Corrective fall from 148.38 should have completed at 137.37. Further rally should be seen to 146.71 resistance. On the downside, though, below 141.40 minor support will dampen this bullish view, and turn intraday bias back to the downside for 139.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.03) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.32; (P) 161.53; (R1) 161.88; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, decisive break of 161.80 resistance will argue that whole correction from 172.11 has completed at 155.33. Further rally should be seen back to 169.26/172.11 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 155.33 low will resume the fall from 172.11 to 153.70 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 163.02 support turned resistance holds, decline from 172.11 medium term top is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 172.11 at 153.70. Sustained break there will raise the change of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 142.34. Nevertheless, break of 163.02 support turned resistance will argue that the decline has completed, and retain medium term bullishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9845; (P) 0.9872; (R1) 0.9888; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9832, to complete the corrective pattern from 1.0095. Break of 0.9923 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.0067/0095 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.0025) mixed up the outlook. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484). However, firm break of 0.9832 support will revive medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9407 low instead.

Chinese equities were boosted on Monday by a report from Goldman Sachs predicting that the MSCI China index could rally as much as 24% by the end of the year.

And it’s not necessarily a crazy bet. The index rebounded by more than 60% between last October and the end of this January. And even with a 24% rally this year, the MSCI China index would be around 30% lower than the February 2021 peak.

Yet, the rising geopolitical tensions with the US are obviously not appetizing for an average investor, on top of the massive loss of investor confidence during the government crackdown that started by end of 2020, and may have not ended just yet, given the news that a star banker in China called Bao Fan has simply… disappeared.

The thing is, the Chinese reopening story, backed by supportive fiscal and monetary policies should help the Chinese economy recover.

To what extent the government help will help equities recover is yet to be seen.

China’s real activity index is now around the pre-Covid levels, more or less matching the Trump-era trade war levels, the equity valuations are sputtering after an initial jump between October and the beginning of this year.

The rapid reopening will certainly boost activity and give a chance for stocks to rebound. But for that to happen, the relationship between the US and China should not get worse, and ideally improve. And that is not a given.

One man’s meat is another man’s poison

Anyway, Goldman Sachs is positive for China. And mining stocks hope they are right because BHP announced a 32% drop in half-year profit as a result of rising costs and soft commodity prices, mostly hit by subdued activity in China. The share price tipped a toe below the 50-DMA in Australia, though losses were limited on hope that the reopening China will finally give a boost to commodity prices.

Chinese reopening is undeniably a good scenario for mining stocks, and the British FTSE 100 which finally stepped above the 8000p mark last week, and holding gains at these levels.

However, rising commodity prices is a scenario of catastrophe for global inflation, and the central bank expectations.

The latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that the Australian policymakers considered a 50bp hike at the latest meeting, before agreeing on a 25bp hike.

The latter raised worries that the era of 50bp hikes is not yet a history, and it could happen at the Federal Reserve (Fed) as soon as its March meeting.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also considering raising the rates by 50bp at the next meeting.

But, for now, China-led bulls fail to gain momentum

For now, the oil bears defy all news of Chinese reopening. The latest Bloomberg news suggested that demand from China will climb by 800’000bpd this year, and take the consumption to an all-time high, of about 16mbpd.

In vain. Yesterday’s rebound in US crude remained capped into the 50-DMA, a touch below the $78pb mark.

Trainwreck in slow motion

Facebook’s Meta announced a plan to roll out paid subscriptions to compensate for the revenue loss from advertisements – which topped $10 billion last year after Apple changed its security settings.

Metaverse, which was the company’s best option for future growth, is also sputtering.

Facebook had a nice start to the year, and jumped impressively after its latest quarterly results, but the early optimism is fading.

Therefore, giving an energy boost and hope to investors may not be a bad idea in the short run. Though, the Twitter experience is a warning that users may not be excited by the news. The only thing that could save Meta Verified from being a similar flop to Twitter Blue is the fact that Meta asks government ID to verify accounts.

But in all cases, in the longer run, it’s a sad turn of things for an innovative technology company. Meta was looking to revolutionize social media by migrating users on to a virtual world. Instead, they will be asking them to pay… for better data – a thing that should be a given.

Meta Verified will cost up to $15 for a mobile subscription. Revenues may jump as Meta has 3.74 billion active users and even a small proportion of them migrating to a verified account could bring cash. Yet revenues may not jump to replace advertising revenue.

Therefore, advertising will remain the major revenue stream for the company in the foreseeable future.

If Facebook wants to stay in the Big Tech race, it must find a way to make its metaverse dream come true.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0669; (P) 1.0687; (R1) 1.0703; More...

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.0610 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk stays on the downside with 1.0803 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0610 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1032 and 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2018; (P) 1.2037; (R1) 1.2060; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.1914 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. For now, risk stays on the downside as long as 1.2269 resistance holds. Break of 1.1914 will resume the fall from 1.2446, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2445, to 1.1840 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9213; (P) 0.9238; (R1) 0.9255; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 0.9331 will resume the rebound from 0.9058 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474. However, break of 0.9135 will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 0.9058 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0146 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern. As long as 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 holds, another fall is in favor through 0.9058. However, sustained trading above 0.9474 will indicate that the medium term trend has reversed, and open up further rally to 1.0146 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.97; (P) 134.25; (R1) 134.58; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 135.09 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 135.09 will resume the rise from 127.20 to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Strong resistance could be seen there to complete the corrective rebound. On the downside, break of 132.89 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to 129.79 support.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that's not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.