Sample Category Title

Monday, Dec 1, 2025

Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025

Wednesday, Dec 3, 2025

Thursday, Dec 4, 2025

Friday, Dec 5, 2025

Canada’s economy returned to growth in Q3, expanding 0.6% qoq after contracting -0.5% in Q2. The improvement was driven mainly by a stronger trade balance as imports fell and exports edged higher.

Government-led capital investment also provided support, though business investment was flat. The gains were partially offset by declines in both household and government consumption, alongside slower inventory accumulation.

On a per-capita basis, GDP rose 0.5% qoq after a -0.5% decline the previous quarter—offering some relief amid ongoing concerns about sluggish productivity and population-driven dilution of output.

Monthly data aligned with expectations, with September GDP rising 0.2% mom.

Full Canada GDP release here.

In the US, we received more of the delayed data following the end of the government shutdown last week. September retail sales disappointed with retail sales growing only 0.2% m/m below expectations of a 0.4% m/m rise and the control group saw spending decline by 0.1% m/m against an expected rise of 0.3% m/m. Hence, consumers lost some momentum at the end of an otherwise solid third quarter. The conference board consumer confidence indicator recorded a significant decline in November to 88.7 which is the second lowest reading in four years. Expectations for the next six months declined to the lowest level since April as consumers are increasingly concerned about higher prices and a cooling labour market. Overall, the data prints from the US added fuel to the worries surrounding the US economy and markets are now pricing about an 80% chance of an interest rate cut at the FOMC December meeting up from 60% last week.

In the euro area, we received the first inflation prints for November from France, Spain, Germany, and Italy ahead of the aggregate euro area print we get next week. Inflation came in slightly lower than expected with especially services inflation slowing in November. Consensus was looking for a rise in the euro area aggregate print from 2.1% y/y to 2.2% y/y but is likely to stay at 2.1% y/y in line with our initial forecast. Despite the slightly weaker inflation data we do think this changes the outlook for the ECB which still has a strong bias for holding the policy rate steady, which we expect they will do throughout 2026. The ECB September staff projections saw headline inflation at 2.0% in Q4, so inflation is still on track to come in higher than ECB had expected.

In the UK, the Autumn Budget was announced, raising tax rates to post war highs, with the Chancellor asking "ordinary people to pay a little bit more". The GBP strengthened on the release as the government targeted a tighter fiscal policy than markets had been expecting. This provides a bigger buffer against future excess debt issuance although the budget delivered less near-term fiscal tightening than expected. Particularly the absence of VAT hikes paves the way for more near-term easing from the Bank of England in our view, and markets now price above 90% chance of a cut from Bank of England in December.

In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate index for November declined against expectations to 88.1 (cons: 88.5) from 88.4. At the same time, the Q3 GDP growth rate was confirmed at 0.0% q/q and revealed that private consumption fell 0.3% q/q, which is the first quarterly decline recorded since 2023. Hence, the German economy is still stagnating and has yet to recover although expectations for a recovery remain intact. We will likely have to await the effects of fiscal easing to kick in before the economy records a rebound in activity.

Next week focus turns to the US ISM report and ADP employment for November as well as the September PCE inflation. In the euro area, we receive the aggregate inflation print, final PMIs, and the ECB's preferred measure of wage growth for the third quarter. Especially the wage growth will be interesting for the ECB as it is what keeps inflation from falling below target currently. In China focus turns to the PMI report for November which is expected to rebound following a sharp drop in October due to lower exports, likely driven by the threat of 100% US tariffs which never materialised.

Full report in PDF. 

Markets were broadly quiet today as holiday conditions dominated trading, with liquidity thinning further after a major technical issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange brought several platforms to a halt. The CME said trading had come to a standstill due to a cooling problem at one of its data centers. The outage affected Globex futures and options, EBS foreign-exchange trading and BMD markets, with the exchange warning that price adjustments may take time to filter through once systems fully recover.

In currencies, the Dollar attempted another modest rebound but once again struggled to build momentum. With little fresh data and most investors already looking ahead to next week’s U.S. releases—including ISM manufacturing and services—there was no catalyst to drive a meaningful shift. Many traders may simply prefer to wait even longer for the December 10 FOMC decision before committing to larger directional positions.

As a result, the weekly performance picture remains unchanged. Dollar is still the weakest performer of the week, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc. At the top end, Kiwi continues to lead, supported by a hawkish RBNZ stance, while Aussie and Sterling follow. Euro and Loonie sit squarely in the middle.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.27%. DAX is up 0.18%. CAC is up 0.25%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.02 at 4.436. Germany 10-year yield is flat at 2.685. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.17%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.34%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.34%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.32%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.005 to 1.807.

ECB survey shows slight rise in 12-month inflation expectations to 2.8%

The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for October showed a small uptick in near-term inflation expectations, with the median 12-month outlook rising to 2.8% from 2.7% in September.

Longer-term expectations remained stable, with the three-year horizon unchanged at 2.5% and the five-year measure anchored at 2.2%. Inflation uncertainty was likewise steady, indicating consumers do not see a significant shift in the underlying trend.

On the economic front, consumers grew slightly more optimistic about growth. Expectations for GDP over the next 12 months improved to -1.1%, up from -1.2% previously. However, labor-market expectations worsened. Consumers now expect the unemployment rate to reach 11.0% in 12 months, up from 10.7% in September.

Swiss KOF barometer edges up to 101.7 on stronger demand

Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer ticked higher in November, rising from 101.5 to 101.7 and signaling modest improvement in the near-term economic outlook.

KOF noted that the improvement is concentrated on the demand side. Indicator bundles tied to foreign demand and private consumption strengthened, suggesting both external orders and household activity are on firmer footing.

On the production side, however, parts of the economy remain under pressure. Indicators for financial and insurance services, as well as construction, deteriorated, revealing a mixed underlying picture.

Swiss GDP contracts -0.5% in Q3, pharma and chemicals lead decline

Swiss GDP fell -0.5% qoq in Q3, marking a sharp reversal driven almost entirely by the chemical and pharmaceutical sector. After strong momentum earlier in the year, the industry saw output plunge -7.9%, erasing prior gains and dragging the broader economy into contraction.

Authorities noted that the downturn reflects recent volatility in foreign trade. Earlier quarters saw a surge in pharma exports, partly driven by front-loading ahead of U.S. trade-policy changes. Those temporary boosts have now unwound, resulting in a "compensatory decline" that weighed heavily on Q3 activity.

Tokyo core CPI holds at 2.8% in November, inflation pressures still firm

In Japan, Tokyo’s inflation profile showed little moderation in November, with both core CPI and core-core CPI staying at 2.8% yoy. The readings came in slightly firmer than expected, while headline CPI eased just one-tenth to 2.7%. The stability of these measures indicates that underlying inflation momentum remains intact.

Much of the price momentum came from food, where sharp gains continued. The cost of rice surged 38.5% yoy, coffee beans rose 63.4%, and chocolate jumped 32.5%, reflecting broad price pressures across essential and discretionary categories.

Meanwhile, goods inflation climbed 4.0% yoy. Services inflation eased only marginally to 1.5% from 1.6%.

Japan industrial production surges 1.4% mom in October on auto rebound, but fluctuation to continue

Japan’s industrial production rose 1.4% mom in October, sharply beating expectations of a -0.6% decline. The rebound was driven primarily by a 6.6% jump in motor vehicle output, a sector benefiting from the U.S. tariff rate on Japanese cars being reduced to 15% from 27.5% in mid-September. The improvement highlights how quickly Japanese automakers responded once tariff uncertainty eased.

However, the forward outlook remains soft. Based on its manufacturer survey, METI expects output to fall -1.2% in November and contract a further -2.0% in December. Despite October’s upside surprise, the ministry kept its overall assessment unchanged, saying industrial production “fluctuates indecisively” amid continued uncertainty at home and abroad.

Retail sales also surprised to the upside, rising 1.7% yoy versus expectations of 0.8%. The strength suggests domestic demand remains more resilient than many feared, even as the industrial sector continues to face uneven momentum.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1578; (P) 1.1596; (R1) 1.1615; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment, as range trading continues. Further decline is expected with 1.1655 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.1490 and 1.1467 will resume the whole decline from 1.1917 high. Next targets are 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. However, decisive break of 1.1655 will argue that fall from 1.1917 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1727 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1578; (P) 1.1596; (R1) 1.1615; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment, as range trading continues. Further decline is expected with 1.1655 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.1490 and 1.1467 will resume the whole decline from 1.1917 high. Next targets are 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. However, decisive break of 1.1655 will argue that fall from 1.1917 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1727 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3210; (P) 1.3240; (R1) 1.3270; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, break of 1.3267 will resume the rebound from 1.3308. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA should confirm that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a correction. Further rise should then be seen to 1.3725/3787 resistance zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.3123 minor support will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 1.3008.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8027; (P) 0.8048; (R1) 0.8069; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that current rise from 0.7877 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.7828 low. Above 0.8101 will target 0.8123 resistance, and then 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.8218. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8015) will bring deeper fall back to 0.7877 support instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.85; (P) 156.17; (R1) 156.63; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as consolidations continue below 157.88. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Downside should be contained by 154.47 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 157.88 will resume the whole rally from 139.87. Next target is 158.86 structural resistance, and then 161.94 high. However, firm break of 154.47 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 152.63).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap corrected by 0.4% to $3.10T, pausing the cautious rebound from last Friday. Yet we can’t talk about the rebound running out of steam, as there was strong growth the day before. But we do not see any increase in optimism, as just about one in seven coins has gained in the last 24 hours, compared to a decline for most.

The sentiment index rose to 25, the threshold for exiting the territory of extreme fear, despite the latest round of weakness. The index’s dynamics are likely to attract buyers who were eager to enter the market but were waiting for a discount after the highs were set in early October.

Bitcoin has fallen below $ 91K, stabilising near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline since November 11th. The area near $90K was significant for the market about a year ago, serving as support for the correction after the growth momentum in early November. There is some risk that it will now act as resistance, reinforcing the bearish signal of a possible end to the rebound. A rise above $95K would signal a victory for the bulls and a return to a bull market, while a decline below $87K could open the way to $80K, driving the market into a depression.

News Background

Kronos Research describes the current dynamics as a classic rebound from oversold conditions. The market has cleared out excess long positions, creating room for growth, according to Presto Research.

Futures and options data point to a return of bullish sentiment. The market is ‘ready for growth’ after speculative longs were closed over the past two weeks, according to GSR.

According to CryptoQuant, in November, the Binance crypto exchange increased its stablecoin reserves to a record $51.1 billion. The growth of this indicator can be seen as a positive factor for the crypto market.

The potential exclusion of Strategy from the S&P 500 index and continued outflows from spot crypto ETFs could bring back bearish sentiment and trigger sell-offs, warns QCP Capital.

Bolivia will include cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in its national financial system to modernise it. Cryptocurrencies will be allowed to be used as a means of payment, savings accounts, credit products and loans. The authorities’ decision is a result of the country’s challenging economic situation.

The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for October showed a small uptick in near-term inflation expectations, with the median 12-month outlook rising to 2.8% from 2.7% in September.

Longer-term expectations remained stable, with the three-year horizon unchanged at 2.5% and the five-year measure anchored at 2.2%. Inflation uncertainty was likewise steady, indicating consumers do not see a significant shift in the underlying trend.

On the economic front, consumers grew slightly more optimistic about growth. Expectations for GDP over the next 12 months improved to -1.1%, up from -1.2% previously. However, labor-market expectations worsened. Consumers now expect the unemployment rate to reach 11.0% in 12 months, up from 10.7% in September.

Full ECB Consumer Expectations Survey here.