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EUR/USD is in a holding pattern ahead of today’s ECB rate meeting. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0068, down 0.16%.

ECB projected to hike by 0.75%

The ECB holds its policy meeting later today, amidst difficult economic conditions in the eurozone. Inflation jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from 9.1%. The manufacturing and services sectors are in decline and confidence levels are low. The markets have priced in a 0.75% hike and there has even been talk of a jumbo full-point increase. Could the ECB surprise with a lower-than-expected hike of 0.50%? Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia both delivered smaller hikes than expected, at 0.50% and 0.25%, respectively.  The message from both central banks is that they are close to ending their rate-tightening cycles and expect inflation to peak in the next several months.

Will the ECB follow suit? It’s possible but unlikely. The ECB only entered the tightening game in July, and the current benchmark of 1.25% remains out-of-sync with inflation, which is close to double-digits and the ECB needs to be aggressive if it hopes to beat inflation. The benchmark rates are much higher in Canada (3.75%) and Australia (2.60%) and have slowed economic growth, while the ECB’s low benchmark rate has not had the same effect. Still, the weak eurozone economy could tip into recession as a result of sharp rate hikes, which means that a 0.50% hike cannot be completely discounted. We can expect some movement from EUR/USD in response to the ECB decision – an increase of 0.75% or 1.00% will be bullish for the currency, while a 0.50% hike would disappoint investors and likely send the euro lower.

EUR/USD Technical

• There is resistance at 1.0095 and 1.0154
• 0.9924 and 0.9814 are the next support levels

It is assumed that the XAGUSD pair forms a correction wave b of the cycle degree, which is part of the global zigzag. It is a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. The first four parts of it have already been fully completed. In other words, we see the construction of the last wave Ⓩ.

Most likely, the wave Ⓩ will be an intermediate triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z). It seems that the second intervening wave (X) in the form of a minor double zigzag W-X-Y has recently ended.

Thus, we can expect a drop in the intermediate wave (Z) to 16.223. At that level, sub-waves (Z) and (Y) will be equal. It is assumed that the wave (Z) takes the double zigzag pattern W-X-Y.

Let's consider the second option, where the bearish primary wave Ⓩ could have already completely ended in the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). And the whole correction b along with it.

Thus, in the last section of the chart, we can notice the initial part of the bullish wave c of the cycle degree. It is assumed that it will take the form of an impulse ①-②-③-④-⑤, as shown in the chart.

Perhaps the primary sub-wave ① has come to an end, it is similar to the leading diagonal and correction ②. In the near future, the growth may continue in the sub-wave ③ above the maximum of 22.555.

WTI oil futures (December delivery) closed strongly up by 4.0% on Wednesday at 88.26 after four consecutive days of muted trade, raising speculation that the upturn could gain extra legs in the near term.

Previously, the price stepped on the broken descending trendline to defend the rebound off the nine-month low of 76.25.

In momentum indicators, the RSI has climbed back above its 50 neutral mark and the stochastics keep sloping upwards, reflecting a bullish bias. Yet, the latter is already near its 80 overbought mark, whereas the MACD has barely entered the positive area, both warranting some caution.

Besides, with the 88.42 resistance standing firm, downside corrections cannot be ruled out. If the bulls breach that wall, the price may speed up to test October’s high of 92.32. Above that, the focus will turn to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 97.40, a break of which is needed to clear the way up to the 100.50-101.50 constraining zone.

Alternatively, the price may again seek support within the 85.00 – 82.65 region. Failure to pivot here could bring the descending trendline under examination around 80.00. Even lower, the bears will attempt to re-activate the downtrend below 76.25 with scope to reach the 72.72 barrier from 2021.

In brief, the latest bullish move in WTI oil futures has increased the odds for a continuation higher, though traders will wisely wait for an extension above the 88.42 bar before they increase their buying orders.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.43; (P) 169.19; (R1) 170.53; More...

GBP/JPY edged higher to 170.57 but quickly retreated Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 170.57 will confirm larger up trend resumption. However, break of 164.95 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 159.71 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will pave the way to retest 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.13; (P) 147.43; (R1) 147.90; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment, as consolidation from 148.38 is extending. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained by 140.88/144.06 support zone to bring another rally. Break of 148.38 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 133.38 to 145.62 from 137.32 at 149.56, which is close to 149.76 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 (2014 high). Decisive break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 156.22. This will now remain the favored case as long as 137.32 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8644; (P) 0.8672; (R1) 0.8698; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected with 0.8869 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.8577 will resume the fall from 0.9267, towards 0.8201/8388 support zone. However, firm break of 0.8869 will indicate that such decline has completed after defending 55 day EMA. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 0.9267 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5435; (P) 1.5533; (R1) 1.5617; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5704 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume the rally from 1.4281 to 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823. However, on the downside, break of 1.5412 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9911; (P) 0.9929; (R1) 0.9963; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise form 0.9407 should target 100% projection of 0.9407 to 0.9798 from 0.9641 at 1.0032. On the downside, below 0.9871 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook should stay bullish as long as 0.9798 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish condition in daily MACD and the firm break of 55 day EMA, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9407. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9641 support holds, even as a corrective rebound. Next target 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072. Reaction from there, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0120) will reveal whether the trend is reversing.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3492; (P) 1.3572; (R1) 1.3635; More....

USD/CAD is still staying in range of 1.3501/3976 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.3501 holds, further rise is still in favor. On the upside, firm break of 1.3976 will target 200% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.4285. However, firm break of 1.3501 will bring deeper correction to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3433) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Based on current impulsive momentum, it could be resuming long term up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Whether it is or it isn't, retest of 1.4689 (2016 high) should be seen next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3222 resistance turned support holds.