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The British pound remains under pressure. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2055, unchanged the day. The pound fell as low as 1.2007 in the Asian session, just above the symbolic 1.20 line.

UK wage growth remains high

The economic outlook in the UK is grim and today’s employment report didn’t bring any cheer. Unemployment claims continue to fall and the labour market remains strong, but wage growth indicates trouble. Wages dropped to 5.1% in June, down from 6.4% in May. However, real wages (adjusted for inflation) actually fell by 3% in Q2 on an annualized basis, a new record. The cost of living is thus increasing at an even faster rate and is far outpacing wage growth.

The headline wage growth reading of 5.1%, which is not adjusted for inflation, may have fallen, but still remains high and will likely force the BoE to continue hiking aggressively. The BoE has forecast that inflation will hit a staggering 13% this year, and the last thing it needs to contend with is a wage-price spiral, which could entrench inflation.

The markets won’t have much time to dwell on the employment numbers, with the inflation report being released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to accelerate to 9.8% in July, up from 9.4% in June. If inflation pushes higher than the estimate, it could be a nasty day for the pound.

The Federal Reserve continues to send out the message that its rate hikes are far from over as the battle against inflation will continue for some time yet. The markets expect the Fed to raise rates to a peak in a range of 3.50% – 3.75%, well above the current benchmark rate of 2.50%. Despite this hawkish stance, the financial markets don’t seem to be listening. US equity markets have been rising, while the US dollar, which should be benefitting from a hawkish Fed, is struggling. The lower-than-expected July inflation report of 8.5% raised risk sentiment and sent the dollar tumbling. If inflation resumes its upward trend in August, risk appetite could evaporate and the dollar might have the last laugh.

GBP/USD Technical

•  GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2030. Below, there is support at 1.1925
• There is resistance at 1.2153 and 1.2258

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.78; (P) 135.92; (R1) 136.57; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Overall, it's staying in the corrective pattern from 144.26. On the upside, above 138.38 will resume the rebound from 138.38. On the downside, below 134.93 will turn bias back to the downside for 133.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 134.11 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.00; (P) 161.05; (R1) 161.73; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Overall, corrective pattern from 168.67 is still extending. On the upside, above 162.77 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 163.91 resistance. Break there will target 166.31. On the downside, below 160.07 will turn bias to the downside for 159.42 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0120; (P) 1.0194; (R1) 1.0233; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remain son the downside at this point. Rebound from 0.9951 should have completed at 1.0368 after rejection by 55 day EMA, as well as falling channel resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 0.9951 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2020; (P) 1.2084; (R1) 1.2118; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.2002 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.1759 has completed, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.1759 low first. Break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.2922 will resume the rebound from 1.1759 towards 1.2666 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2897).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9425; (P) 0.9448; (R1) 0.9486; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Recovery from 0.9369 should be limited well below 0.9648 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 0.9369 will resume larger decline from 1.0063 towards 0.9149 support next.

In the bigger picture, break of 0.9471 support turned resistance argues that medium term up trend from 0.8756 has completed with three waves up to 1.0063. Long term sideway pattern might have started another falling leg. Deeper decline would now be in favor as long as 0.9648 resistance holds, to 0.9149 structural support. Sustained break there could pave the way back to 0.8756.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.71; (P) 133.16; (R1) 133.75; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Overall, corrective pattern from 139.37 will extend further. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound to retest 139.37 high. On the downside, below 131.72 will resume the fall from 139.37 through 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

While Dollar remains generally firm, Yen is reversing much of this week's gain. The moves come as European benchmark yields are trading generally higher. Major European stock indexes are also in slight positive position. Canadian Dollar is rebounding, responding more to rising core inflation reading. European majors and other commodity currencies are mixed for now.

Technically, one focus is on whether USD/JPY would break through 135.57 minor resistance to resume the rebound from 130.38. If happens, such move could be accompanied by break of 138.38 minor resistance in EUR/JPY and 163.91 minor resistance in GBP/JPY. Such development might come in tandem with stronger rally in US stocks and benchmark yields.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.56%. DAX is up 0.15%. CAC is up 0.06%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.060 at 0.960. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.01%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.05%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.05%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.09%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0168 to 0.170.

Canada CPI slowed to 7.6% yoy in Jul, as gasoline prices fell

Canada CPI slowed from 8.1% yoy to 7.6% yoy in July, matched expectations. Excluding gasoline, prices accelerated from 6.5% yoy to 6.6% yoy. Gasoline prices slowed sharply from 54.6% yoy to 35.6% yoy.

For the month, CPI rose 0.1% mom, lowest since December. Gasoline prices dropped -9.2% mom, largest monthly decline since April 2020.

CPI common rose from 4.6% yoy to 5.5% yoy, above expectation of 4.7% yoy. CPI median rose from 4.9% yoy to 5.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.9% yoy. CPI trimmed slowed from 5.5% yoy to 5.4% yoy, matched expectations.

Germany ZEW dropped to -55.3, further decline in already weak economic growth

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped slightly from -53.8 to -55.3 in August, below expectation of -52.7. Current Situation index dropped from -45.8 to -47.6, above expectation of -48.0.

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from -51.1 to -54.9, below expectation of -52.0. Current Situation Index rose 2.5 pts to -42.0. Eurozone inflation expectations rose 2.1 pts to -23.5, indicating a reduction of the high inflation rates within the next six months.

"The ZEW Economic Expectations decrease again slightly in August after a sharp drop in the previous month. The financial market experts therefore expect a further decline in the already weak economic growth in Germany. The still high inflation rates and the expected additional costs for heating and energy lead to a decrease in profit expectations for the private consumption sector. In contrast, the expectations for the financial sector are improving due to the supposed further increase in short-term interest rates",  comments Michael Schröder, researcher at ZEW and head of the ZEW financial market survey, on current results.

Eurozone exports rose 20.1% yoy in Jun, imports rose 43.5% yoy

Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world rose 20.1% yoy to EUR 252.2B in June. Imports rose 43.5% yoy to EUR 276.8B. Trade balance came in at EUR -24.6B deficit. Intra-eurozone trade rose 24.2% yoy to EUR 236.4B.

In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -0.1% mom to EUR 241.8B. Imports rose 1.3% mom to EUR 272.7B. Trade deficit widened from EUR -27.2B to EUR -30.8B, versus expectation of EUR -20.0B. Intra-eurozone trade was unchanged at EUR 224.1B.

UK payrolled employment rose 73k in Jul, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8% in Jun

UK payrolled employment increased by 73k, or 0.2% mom, in July. Comparing with the same month a year ago, payrolled employees rose 29.7m, or 2.9% yoy. Claimant count dropped -10.5k, smaller than expectation of -32.9k. Median monthly pay rose 6.6% yoy to GBP 2108.

In the three months to June, unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, matched expectations. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 4.7% 3moy, above expectation of 4.4%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.1% 3moy, below expectation of 5.2%.

RBA Minutes: Further monetary policy normalization expected

In the minutes of the August 2 meeting, RBA expects to "take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead". However, it is "not on a pre-set path." The path is a "narrow one" and "subject to considerable uncertainty". The size of timing of future rate hikes will be guided by incoming data and the assessment of the outlook for inflation and labor market, including the risks.

RBA said that inflation is expected to "peak later in 2022", then decline to top of 2-3% target range by the end of 2024. The expected moderation reflected "the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, the stabilization of commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates in Australia and overseas". Medium-term inflation expectation remained "well anchored".

The Australian economy was "growing strongly" with resilient consumer spending and positive investment outlook. National income was boosted by rise in terms of trade to record high". Outlook is expected to "remain strong" for the rest of 2022, then slow in 2023 and 2024. Employment was "growing strongly" and further declines in unemployment rate were expected over the months ahead.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.71; (P) 133.16; (R1) 133.75; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Overall, corrective pattern from 139.37 will extend further. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound to retest 139.37 high. On the downside, below 131.72 will resume the fall from 139.37 through 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Economic Indicators Update

Canada CPI slowed from 8.1% yoy to 7.6% yoy in July, matched expectations. Excluding gasoline, prices accelerated from 6.5% yoy to 6.6% yoy. Gasoline prices slowed sharply from 54.6% yoy to 35.6% yoy.

For the month, CPI rose 0.1% mom, lowest since December. Gasoline prices dropped -9.2% mom, largest monthly decline since April 2020.

CPI common rose from 4.6% yoy to 5.5% yoy, above expectation of 4.7% yoy. CPI median rose from 4.9% yoy to 5.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.9% yoy. CPI trimmed slowed from 5.5% yoy to 5.4% yoy, matched expectations.

Full release here.

Oil experienced intense pressure on Monday, but the price of natural gas continued its upward trend. This contrast is due to an under-supply of Russian gas to the European market and more speculation around Iranian oil, which could quickly add more than 1m BPD. That said, macroeconomics is now on the side of the energy bears, with only geopolitics temporarily feeding the bulls.

Gas prices in New York are approaching $9 per million British thermal units (1M BTU). This is the area of the May-June highs. A steadily higher price was last seen in 2008. But these high prices have little to do with what Europe now faces.

Gas prices in Europe have surpassed $2,500 per 1,000 cubic metres, the highest since March 8. Europe and America are different markets, and it is not correct to compare prices directly. For example, converted to US standards, current prices at the Dutch hub are close to $70 per 1M BTU. That is 7.8 times higher than in New York. By comparison, in mid-2018, when there was a lull in this market, the difference was 2.6 times.

It is logical to expect that the price difference between Europe and the USA will narrow on both sides, which implies an increase in the USA and a decrease in Europe. But it is worth looking at the first and easiest substitute for gas – crude oil.

Europe is working hard to increase the world’s oil supply, with efforts to conclude the Iran nuclear deal. Yesterday’s news on the subject sent Brent nearly 5% down to $92.2 and WTI to $86.30, its lowest level since the end of February, reflecting a market surplus.

The downtrend in oil prices, which has lasted for more than two months, suggests that right now, we may be witnessing nothing more than a speculative attack on gas, inflating a bubble in its final stages. Experience suggests that in such cases, we see a sharp acceleration before the bubble bursts with a bang. With the Gas case, we should be prepared for prices in Europe to surpass $3000 and in the US to break through $10 before the final downward reversal.