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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8721; (P) 0.8743; (R1) 0.8761; More…

EUR/GBP is staying above 0.8720 support despite today's decline. Intraday bias stays neutral, and further fall is mildly in favor with 0.8800 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.8720 will bring deeper fall to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). However, on the upside, break of 0.8800 will argue that the fall has completed as a correction, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8863.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8610) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7632; (P) 1.7684; (R1) 1.7718; More...

EUR/AUD's break of 1.7635 support suggests that rebound from 1.7477 has completed. And fall from 1.8160 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.7477 first. Break there will target 1.7245 support and below. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend further.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7468) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9304; (P) 0.9314; (R1) 0.9323; More....

EUR/CHF's fall from 0.9394 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. The break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9317, argues that rebound form 0.9178 has already completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 0.9178 low. On the upside, above 0.9326 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9369) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6622; (P) 0.6642; (R1) 0.6677; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the upside with break of 0.6685. Focus is now on 0.6707/13 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume the whole rise from 0.5913 and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6592 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3721; (P) 1.3763; (R1) 1.3791; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.4139 resumes today and intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.3538 low. Firm break there will extend the whole decline from 1.4791 to 1.3365 projection level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3804 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

US consumer confidence weakened further in December, with the Conference Board index falling from 92.9 to 89.1, below expectations of 91.7.

The pullback was driven by the sharp deterioration in current conditions. The Present Situation Index dropped -9.5 points to 116.8, signaling growing unease over labor market and business conditions. In contrast, Expectations Index held steady at 70.7, offering little reassurance as it remains firmly below the 80 threshold that historically signals recession risks.

Commenting on the data, Dana M. Peterson noted that confidence remains well below its January peak, with four of the five components of the headline index declining. The persistence of sub-80 readings in expectations for an eleventh straight month reinforces concerns that consumer sentiment continues to point toward a fragile economic outlook.

Full US consumer confidence release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1722; (P) 1.1746; (R1) 1.1786; More….

EUR/USD is still bounded in range below 1.1803 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.1803 will extend the rally from 1.1467 to retest 1.1917 high. However, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.1640) will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1467 support, to extend the corrective pattern form 1.19717 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1385) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3398; (P) 1.3438; (R1) 1.3502; More...

GBP/USD's rally from 1.3008 resumed by breaking through 1.3455 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3787 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3356 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7904; (P) 0.7931; (R1) 0.7947; More….

USD/CHFs' decline accelerates after breaking through 0.7923 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Decisive break of 0.7828 support will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.7923 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7986 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Canadian GDP contracted by 0.3% m/m in October, in line with Statistics Canada's advanced guidance and market expectations.

Compositionally, 11 of 20 industries registered a decline on the month. Goods industries (-0.7% m/m) reversed out last month's hefty gain, while the services sector contracted by a smaller 0.2% m/m.

On the goods side, the manufacturing sector (-1.5% m/m) contributed most to the GDP contraction, offsetting last month's expansion. A 0.6% m/m pullback in the mining, oil & gas sectors also contributed to monthly GDP decline. Meanwhile, the construction sector fell for a second consecutive month (-0.4% m/m).

On the services side, the education sector fell by 1.8% weighed down by the teachers strike in Alberta. Meanwhile, the transportation and warehousing sector (-1.1% m/m)  reversed out last month's gain. Wholesale and retail trade also fell by 0.9% m/m and 0.6% m/m, respectively.

Advanced guidance calls for a slight uptick in November GDP (0.1% m/m). Increases in the education, construction, and transportation sectors are expected to be partially offset by activity in the manufacturing and mining, oil & gas sector.

Key Implications

After an upside surprise to growth in the third quarter, today's GDP data together with November guidance indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth is tracking roughly flat. Tariff-impacted industries showed some strain in October after gradually recovering in prior months. The expectation is that overall economic growth will remain subdued over the next quarter or two before gradually recovering over the medium-term.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) doesn't make its next policy decision until January 28th, and we don't think today's data moves them off of their current policy stance. The BoC has acknowledged that trade-related impacts on inflation and economic growth are becoming more clear, though that doesn't lower the level of uncertainty in coming quarters as Canada and the U.S. continue to work on hammering out a trade deal. All told, we maintain our view that the BoC has reached the end of their interest rate easing cycle.